Media predictions and analysis thread ... for 2013

[bedlamVR]

Okay well it is always interesting to start looking at what the media talking heads start predicting in May before a single ball is thrown in anger at a training camp to fill the massive void of news between the draft and camp opening .

Last season we saw Pete Prisco predicting a 3-13 campaign and 4th in the NFCE ... well that worked out well for us - if Pete can keep this up then Superbowl here we come .. Speaking Mr Prisco I am not sure if anyone caught CSNs blurb on the Griffin at the 83rd best player in the NFL - third best on the team - behind Morris and Williams and behind all Collin Kapernic, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck .. i mean please .

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/22240365/nfl-top-100-on-a-list-loaded-with-quarterbacks-rodgers-is-clear-no-1

[bradboyd80]

Yeah, that's just absolute garbage from top to bottom (minus a few selections that I agree with). No way that Kaepernick, Wilson, AND Luck should be rated higher than RG3; Revis barely played a quarter of the season IIRC; Cruz ahead of Welker?; and Ware at 10? Yeah........I'm only sorry I gave that article a hit.

[PortisBetts]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-on-football/22246720/ranking-nfl-qbs-rodgers-brady-peyton-and-brees-are-elites-eli-almost-

here is another funny one ranking qb's with Griffin at 13 behind Wilson, Luck, and Kaepernick.

[JTriz631]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-on-football/22246720/ranking-nfl-qbs-rodgers-brady-peyton-and-brees-are-elites-eli-almost-

here is another funny one ranking qb's with Griffin at 13 behind Wilson, Luck, and Kaepernick.

funny how They mention everyone at the tops eye popping numbers ("only 8 interceptions"-pretty sure I read that at the top more than once) but once you get down to the quarterback who's ranked 13th in the list there's no mention of only 5 interceptions or rookie records being destroyed. Just an acl.

[daveakl]

Colin Kaepernick: 8 regular season games, 1814 yards, 10 TD's 3 INT's. 98.4 Rating

RGIII: 15 regular season games, 3200 yards, 20 TD's, 5 INT's 102.3 Rating

I LOVE who we have, but to not see that Kaepernick and Wilson had a lot going for them last season is to ignore the truth. Are they better then RGIII? I do not think so, but I also am 100% my vision is clouded. Are they all in the same discussion? Right now I would say yes.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

Colin Kaepernick: 8 regular season games, 1814 yards, 10 TD's 3 INT's. 98.4 Rating

RGIII: 15 regular season games, 3200 yards, 20 TD's, 5 INT's 102.3 Rating

I LOVE who we have, but to not see that Kaepernick and Wilson had a lot going for them last season is to ignore the truth. Are they better then RGIII? I do not think so, but I also am 100% my vision is clouded. Are they all in the same discussion? Right now I would say yes.

exactly how I feel about all of them right now

As long as they are all fairly close, I have no issue

[bradboyd80]

Colin Kaepernick: 8 regular season games, 1814 yards, 10 TD's 3 INT's. 98.4 Rating

RGIII: 15 regular season games, 3200 yards, 20 TD's, 5 INT's 102.3 Rating

I LOVE who we have, but to not see that Kaepernick and Wilson had a lot going for them last season is to ignore the truth. Are they better then RGIII? I do not think so, but I also am 100% my vision is clouded. Are they all in the same discussion? Right now I would say yes.

I for one would not argue their presence on the list; only in the order they appear. They all played extremely well and deserve to be on the list. Though I would point out that Kaepernick wasn't a rookie, so personally he'd lose points in my opinion. Definitely not downplaying how well he played, just pointing out that he's had much more time to learn than the others on top of only playing half a season (when all three of the others played nearly the entire season).

[Bifflog]

Colin Kaepernick: 8 regular season games, 1814 yards, 10 TD's 3 INT's. 98.4 Rating

RGIII: 15 regular season games, 3200 yards, 20 TD's, 5 INT's 102.3 Rating

I LOVE who we have, but to not see that Kaepernick and Wilson had a lot going for them last season is to ignore the truth. Are they better then RGIII? I do not think so, but I also am 100% my vision is clouded. Are they all in the same discussion? Right now I would say yes.

Give this team the defensive support that Kaep and Wilson got and this wouldn't even be a discussion because we'd be shining up our 4th Lombardi...

[mezcal14]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/nfls-rookie-the-year-finalists-2012-drive-stats/21378/

This gives a pretty nice breakdown between Griffin, Wilson, and Luck in terms of what they were able to do with the football relative to both 1) what their defenses gave them and 2) what the score was in the game. Kaep isn't included since he wasn't a rookie, but a lot of the things said about Wilson apply to him, too, given the SF defense is nearly as dominant as the SEA defense.

Things that jumped out at me through my burgundy colored glasses:

Seattle and SF were ranked 4th and 1st, respectively, in net line of scrimmage/drive (OFF-DEF).

SEA started 28% of their drives from their own 36 yard line onwards, compared to the 'skins at 21%.

57% of SEA's TD drives were of 70+ yards, compared to 67% of WAS.

SEA, on average, was 2.6 scores ahead each time they started a drive. WAS, on the other hand, was 0.9 scores ahead.

I went through RW's turnovers, and the overwhelming majority came at times when he would be expected to make plays, ie, when the game was within 1 score. Of course teams are throwing the ball more when the game is closer (just ask Andrew Luck!) but my only point is that when you're on average up 2.6 scores each time you get the ball, you can lean MUCH more heavily on your running game and really pick your passes, instead of having to make plays with the game on the line.

The fact that he had shorter fields to work with and only got the ball playing from behind on 30% of his drives speaks volumes about Russell Wilson to me. I am not in any way saying he's a poor QB, but rather, that his team situation as a whole sets him up for success.

To a certain extent this is the same argument that Luck fans made to disparage RG3's accomplishments ("waaah he didn't have to make plays!"), but RG3 1) was playing from behind 40% of the time and 2) playing in far more close games than Wilson (<1 score differential each time he touched the ball, versus 2.6!). Having the #1 scoring defense in the league behind you is of no small benefit.

Hopefully this year Kerrigan and Orakpo flourish as a pass rushing combo and our secondary full of (fingers crossed) playmakers will form a stifling defense that will give RG3 short fields and a large scoring differential to play with. The result could very well be a trip to the NFC Championship game and a SB berth.

[skins island connection]

Most every so-called mediot has to spew something out to draw attention; alot of their 'guesses' are based on partial information, favortism, and who won them the most money on their betting last season.

I just assume the Skins fly under the radar, let the media whores gravitate to whoever makes them wet their pants, and come playoff time, watch them cry as they get picked apart by the Skins.

Remember, haters will be haters...

[PortisBetts]

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/nfls-rookie-the-year-finalists-2012-drive-stats/21378/

This gives a pretty nice breakdown between Griffin, Wilson, and Luck in terms of what they were able to do with the football relative to both 1) what their defenses gave them and 2) what the score was in the game. Kaep isn't included since he wasn't a rookie, but a lot of the things said about Wilson apply to him, too, given the SF defense is nearly as dominant as the SEA defense.

Things that jumped out at me through my burgundy colored glasses:

Seattle and SF were ranked 4th and 1st, respectively, in net line of scrimmage/drive (OFF-DEF).

SEA started 28% of their drives from their own 36 yard line onwards, compared to the 'skins at 21%.

57% of SEA's TD drives were of 70+ yards, compared to 67% of WAS.

SEA, on average, was 2.6 scores ahead each time they started a drive. WAS, on the other hand, was 0.9 scores ahead.

I went through RW's turnovers, and the overwhelming majority came at times when he would be expected to make plays, ie, when the game was within 1 score. Of course teams are throwing the ball more when the game is closer (just ask Andrew Luck!) but my only point is that when you're on average up 2.6 scores each time you get the ball, you can lean MUCH more heavily on your running game and really pick your passes, instead of having to make plays with the game on the line.

The fact that he had shorter fields to work with and only got the ball playing from behind on 30% of his drives speaks volumes about Russell Wilson to me. I am not in any way saying he's a poor QB, but rather, that his team situation as a whole sets him up for success.

To a certain extent this is the same argument that Luck fans made to disparage RG3's accomplishments ("waaah he didn't have to make plays!"), but RG3 1) was playing from behind 40% of the time and 2) playing in far more close games than Wilson (<1 score differential each time he touched the ball, versus 2.6!). Having the #1 scoring defense in the league behind you is of no small benefit.

Hopefully this year Kerrigan and Orakpo flourish as a pass rushing combo and our secondary full of (fingers crossed) playmakers will form a stifling defense that will give RG3 short fields and a large scoring differential to play with. The result could very well be a trip to the NFC Championship game and a SB berth.

Thats a really good article.