RG3 posts the highest QBTG ever.

[KDawg]

I'm reading "The Essential Smart Football" by Chris Brown right now. I found this passage in a chapter that I felt I had to share with you all:

Having Bill Belichick as [brady's] coach has helped Brady become that expert. But the two of them have had another key advantage this season... The up-tempo, no-huddle offense. Modern defenses want to match offenses in terms of strength and speed via personnel substitutions. They also want to confuse offenses with movement and disguise. The up-tempo no-huddle stymies those defensive options. The defense doesn't have time to substitute, and it's also forced to show its hand: it can't disguise or shift because the quarterback can snap the ball and take advantage of obvious, structural weaknesses. And when the defense is forced to reveal itself, Tom Brady can change into a better play. The upshot of this tactic: Brady, of all people, sees defenses that are simpler than those most other NFL quarterbacks go up against.

The author didn't use that quote to say Brady wasn't a great quarterback, but rather the Brady/Belichick relationship is symbiotic. Belichick can run an offense the way he wants because of Brady. Brady can succeed due to Belichick. It's an interesting quote in a lot of ways

---------- Post added November-20th-2012 at 08:36 AM ----------

But making the proper read and delivering an accurate pass are two unique qualities. There are many QBs who can make the right read, but can't throw accurately. Shotgun won't fix that, which is what OF is implying with his saying that shotgun makes QBs more accurate.

I think in a blanket statement he's right. If a QB can't make a throw with time to throw and a clearer view of the field, they're not skilled enough to be a NFL quarterback. I also don't believe they're all that unique skills. I think they're synergistic.

For example: I throw you a football and say: Okay, Tim is going to run a route. Take your time and throw the ball. Don't worry about anything. Take as long as you want. If you have a modicum of athletic ability, you're going to throw a decent pass.

Now I throw you the football and say: Okay, Tim is going to run a route. He's going to have a guy covering him. You're going to have 3 linemen and the defense will have a lineman. You can't take all day, but you should have some time to throw a good pass. Again, you should be able to throw a decent ball.

Now I throw you the football and say: Okay, the defense now has two linemen and a linebacker. You have three offensive linemen. You now have two receivers, but the defense added a corner and a safety. You have to make a much quicker decision, which can lead to some inaccuracy.

Now imagine that scenario one more time, 11 v 11. You have next to no time to make a decision, usually < 3 seconds. Your accuracy is effected because of a lack of time.

While the inherent ability to do both is unique, on a football field they can be synergistic.

[Hitman21ST]

That, and if it didn't help the QB complete more passes, there would be no reason at all for coaches to use it. It isn't the running game that benefits.

Accurate QBs will be accurate whether thy are under center or in the gun. Erratic QBs will be erratic whether under center or in the gun. Shotgun isn't some cure-all that fixes accuracy problems. That wasn't even my original point though. My original point was that Brady and Manning can fit the ball into tighter windows than most other QBs. Because of that, you need different parameters for extending the play. Because they can throw it into tighter holes, the receiver can be "less" open. That means that often, extending the play for them means they only need a half second or so more in the pocket for their receivers to be open enough to get the ball to them, so their moving in the pocket to extend the play shouldn't be viewed as the "minimum level required". Their throwing ability allows for them to be able to be productive given only an extra half second.

QBs who can't thread the needle like they can will need more time for their receivers to get open, so they need to be able to extend the play for longer than Brady or Manning. Extending the play is a fluid term that is different for each QB and in part is based on their throwing ability.

[Oldfan]

...The author didn't use that quote to say Brady wasn't a great quarterback, but rather the Brady/Belichick relationship is symbiotic. Belichick can run an offense the way he wants because of Brady. Brady can succeed due to Belichick. It's an interesting quote in a lot of ways

We think of teamwork as an interaction between players, but as your quote says, teamwork includes coaches.

About the no huddle... I was pontificating in another thread about the advantages of a simple passing scheme like the one Peyton has been running for years and DG pointed out that the no huddle has to be a simple scheme that can be practiced to perfection.

[KDawg]

We think of teamwork as an interaction between players, but as your quote says, teamwork includes coaches.

I don't. I've always thought of it as a combination of players and coaches. Its why winning is so hard, and its why having all the talent in the world doesn't always work if chemistry is off between players or between players and coaches.

[Hitman21ST]

While the inherent ability to do both is unique, on a football field they can be synergistic

I understand. I really do. But when I look at a QB like McNabb or Sanchez, who was/is just as erratic in the gun as under center, I can't come to that same conclusion.

But this is a topic for a different thread. The whole shotgun discussion was a rabbit trail off my point about Manning and Brady and the definition of extending the play.

As for the quote in the book, that is a great insight. I thought of teamwork as only between players myself until I started coaching and came to the same conclusion as you regarding the relationship between coaches and players.

[Heavy Jumbo]

Introducing the Quarterback Talent Grade (QBTG) --

I love RG3 as much as the next guy and I know I'm being nit-picky here, but how can RG3 have the best QBTG "ever" in a system you JUST invented? Seems like a very small sample size to me. This may have already been mentioned, but I'm not going to read through 200+ replies.

[AsiaticSkinsFan]

I'm reading "The Essential Smart Football" by Chris Brown right now. I found this passage in a chapter that I felt I had to share with you all:

The author didn't use that quote to say Brady wasn't a great quarterback, but rather the Brady/Belichick relationship is symbiotic. Belichick can run an offense the way he wants because of Brady. Brady can succeed due to Belichick. It's an interesting quote in a lot of ways

of course

the thing is, this is true for every successful QB. The only great, all time QB to succeed in different styles of offenses would be the first one.

If you look at these QBs, the first thing you notice is that they have one offensive system or coach.

Off the top of my head, the only HOF QB, since the 70s, that starred in two different system is Warren Moon who went from the Run n Gun in Houston to a WCO in Minnesota and was great in both.

And most great coaches are usually tied to a great QB, with Joseph Jackson Gibbs being the notable exception.

[Oldfan]

...And most great coaches are usually tied to a great QB, with Joseph Jackson Gibbs being the notable exception.

Bill Walsh took a third round pick in the draft with a backup quarterback skill set and traded a couple of mid-round picks for another who was thought by most to be a bust and he put them both in the Hall of Fame.

[KDawg]

If you look at these QBs, the first thing you notice is that they have one offensive system or coach.

I think that was kind of my point, and Chris Brown's point in the quote. And in turn, I think its kind of Oldfan's point. All quarterbacks are system quarterbacks. If you have a guy with good physical tools (which we can measure) and good intellectual tools (which we as fans can't judge but GMs and coaches do a much better job with) they can run any system. If you have guys that have a floor level NFL talent in both and they are put in the most appropriate system they can be great. Guys that are high in both categories can succeed in more systems.

There is an extremely symbiotic relationship between a coach and a quarterback. Or moreso, a scheme and a quarterback. John Fox is NOT Tony Dungry. Jim Caldwell was NOT Tony Dungy. None of them are Tom Moore. But Peyton Manning has been successful under each under the system that he has learned and mastered over the years. I think credit goes to the coach who originally put him in that system, which I believe is Tom Moore. (And of course, credit needs to go to Peyton for mastering his craft)

---------- Post added November-20th-2012 at 10:11 AM ----------

Bill Walsh took a third round pick in the draft with a backup quarterback skill set and traded a couple of mid-round picks for another who was thought by most to be a bust and he put them both in the Hall of Fame.

I don't think it's fair to say, "he put them in the Hall of Fame". I think its fair to say that his system helped aid Montana and Young into the Hall of Fame, and in turn, their abilities helped make Walsh the offensive mastermind that he is.

[Mahons21]

How do you grade individual consistency for a QB? What can you see that isn't influenced by the support system?

I don't know if I'd necessarily grade individual consistency under the model you've proposed, under the model I've proposed I believe you could see consistency within the stats.

For example if in week 7

Brady is 11/12 on level 1 plays

Week 8

Brady is 14/14 on level 1 plays

Overtime this will show consistency. Keep in mind, even if these passes aren't complete they can still be considered a successful play.

My problem is how do I eliminate the impact an o-line has? I think there would have to be a timer in place, that says for example any 3 step drop a QB is sacked on within x amt of time would be void, and any 5 step drop a QB is sacked on within y amt of time would be void. But then how do you eliminate the lines that allow for a QB to have additional time? I think in that instance I'd have to use a range QB gets 3-5 seconds on a drop, if after 5 seconds they can still throw the ball without either a.) manipulating the pocket or b.) escaping the pocket, said play would be voided or be deducted into a lower level. Obviously the range in time will depend on the drop back/play-action

[Skinsinparadise]

Oldfan:

I haven't read the whole thread so if someone covered this sorry, but would you add the quickness of release as a variable? What makes me go there is Bill Polian in talking about scouting Rg 3 when he was with the Colts highlighted that attribute. Some say it was a big part of what made Dan Marino great, etc.

[Mahons21]

I think your stat would be very useful.

Thanks, now all I need is to be unemployed for a year, all 22 film and an endless amount of caffeine .

[Oldfan]

I love RG3 as much as the next guy and I know I'm being nit-picky here, but how can RG3 have the best QBTG "ever" in a system you JUST invented? Seems like a very small sample size to me. This may have already been mentioned, but I'm not going to read through 200+ replies.

The grading method (the numbers) was just invented, but the grading of QBs goes back many years.

I showed only a few representative QBs because my purpose was only to explain the thought behind my judgment of RG3.

[KDawg]

I don't know if I'd necessarily grade individual consistency under the model you've proposed, under the model I've proposed I believe you could see consistency within the stats.

For example if in week 7

Brady is 11/12 on level 1 plays

Week 8

Brady is 14/14 on level 1 plays

This is measuring a team's consistency, not necessarily a single player.

My problem is how do I eliminate the impact an o-line has? I think there would have to be a timer in place, that says for example any 3 step drop a QB is sacked on within x amt of time would be void, and any 5 step drop a QB is sacked on within y amt of time would be void. But then how do you eliminate the lines that allow for a QB to have additional time? I think in that instance I'd have to use a range QB gets 3-5 seconds on a drop, if after 5 seconds they can still throw the ball without either a.) manipulating the pocket or b.) escaping the pocket, said play would be voided or be deducted into a lower level. Obviously the range in time will depend on the drop back/play-action

Sacks are a poor measure. Pressure is better. How do you measure pressure? Anything that the quarterback has to adjust his drop for. Once he's off his spot, he's pressured if there is a defender near. If not, and he moves off his spot and its not designed for him to do so, he's pressuring himself. And then you have to look at the plays that he pressures himself (negative) or is under no pressure for time dependent on the drop. On a 1-step drop the ball needs to be released immediately. 3-step drop is around 2.0-2.5 seconds. 5-step drop is 2.5-3.0 seconds.

But now you have to take into account passes that aren't thrown due to a receiver running a poor route. Screws up the whole system.

I think it's better to find plays where he meets certain criteria in isolation. Meaning he throws the ball on the run on X plays. I watch those plays. Divide it into times he's pressured and not. Then judge the throw. But it's impossible to tell if a receiver runs a poor route or a quarterback throws the wrong route without inside information.

This topic is really a LARGE can of worms. So it's all subjective in the end.

But you can get a general sense of ability through film study. But you can never isolate a quarterback's performance from his teams.

EDIT: Just wanted to say though, that I think you're on the right track as far as grading a guy goes. But there's just so much to it that even that could be an inaccurate measure. But good thought behind it. Thanks for sharing!

[skinnyskins]

Tim Tebow - 19

1 - Deep Ball

2 - Mid Ball

2 - Short Ball

4 - Throw on the run

5 - Extend Play

5 - Run Threat

Tim Tebow is clearly the superior talent compared to the dregs like Tom Brady and his paltry rating of 16. In fact, if Tebow were the QB of the Patriots you can bet that they would have stomped all over the Gmen in those Superbowls. Tebow may not have the prettiest throw, but his run threat more than makes up for it.

Take this as fact because this is the true talent indicator from the flawless system that is QBTG.

[Mahons21]

When pondering over this whole issue last night, I began to wonder whether it possible to grade QBs universally. When scouts are going through their process, they are looking for specific traits, traits that will fit within the scheme they're scouting for.

If we're going to scout universally, shouldn't we be essentially asking what QB is the most likely to have success in any given system? And if that is the question, can't we honestly say that Griffin would be top 3, if not #1 (as he would be in my book).

That's not to say that Griffin would reach the same level of success in NE that Tom has, only that he'd have more success in that offense than Tom would in ours.

[deejaydana]

I've always felt that the standard QB rating is a flawed model to some degree. And while I'm not saying we break out the annointing oils for RG3 just yet (to steal a Bill Parcells line), boy does he look like a real game-changer for us. And for the league. Thanks for the thought-out input Oldfan.

[Oldfan]

Oldfan:

I haven't read the whole thread so if someone covered this sorry, but would you add the quickness of release as a variable? What makes me go there is Bill Polian in talking about scouting Rg 3 when he was with the Colts highlighted that attribute. Some say it was a big part of what made Dan Marino great, etc.

As a separate variable? No.

I grade as a scout might. So, sure, a quick release is an important factor. I have a different way of judging the release, so I sometimes get different results than others doing the judging. But, I'm sure that scouts have their own methods too.

Speaking of Marino... I taught my sons, grandsons, and other people's boys to throw by starting them down on both knees. Mario said, not long ago, that his father taught him the same way. One of the advantages is a quick release. Most coaches will start a boy down on one knee. There are tradeoffs, but I like the results I got.

[Mahons21]

This is measuring a team's consistency, not necessarily a single player.

You're coming in late to my model, it's back a few pages, it would not be measuring team consistency.

I'd pop up the link but I gotta run, will think about how to adjust for pressures, you make a very good point on that and poorly run routes by receivers.

[KDawg]

Tim Tebow - 19

1 - Deep Ball

2 - Mid Ball

2 - Short Ball

4 - Throw on the run

5 - Extend Play

5 - Run Threat

Tim Tebow is clearly the superior talent compared to the dregs like Tom Brady and his paltry rating of 16. In fact, if Tebow were the QB of the Patriots you can bet that they would have stomped all over the Gmen in those Superbowls. Tebow may not have the prettiest throw, but his run threat more than makes up for it.

Take this as fact because this is the true talent indicator from the flawless system that is QBTG.

1) He never claimed it to be flawless

2) Based on physical abilities, you'd still be wrong. The Patriots system isn't based on a mobile quarterback. Tom Brady, even in Oldfan's assessment, grades out as a much better passer than Tebow does. That fits the Patriots style better. So no. It doesn't mean Tebow would be successful.

3) I think you have Tebow's passing abilities graded a bit too high.

4) Again, this is based entirely on physical abilities. NOT mental prowess.

[Hitman21ST]

Again, all I'm asking for is some clarification as to why you grade Brady's ability to extend plays to be similar to John Skelton's. If I can understand how you came to that conclusion Oldfan, it will really help me to understand the whole thing. I'm having a hard time seeing how you can say that aspect of those two quarterbacks is anywhere near the same.

That's not argumentative at all, but it is you avoiding what appears to be a fundamental flaw in your grading criteria.

[Skinsinparadise]

I grade as a scout might. So, sure, a quick release is an important factor. I have a different way of judging the release, so I sometimes get different results. But, I'm sure that scouts have their own methods too.

Speaking of Marino... I taught my sons, grandsons, and other people's boys to throw by starting them down on both knees. Mario said, not long ago, that his father taught him the same way. One of the advantages is a quick release. Most coaches will start a boy down on one knee. There are tradeoffs, but I like the results I got.

Interesting, different idea but heard RG III in an interview crediting his deep throwing prowess in part from the year he was injured and his dad had him throwing from a chair

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7820629/nfl-robert-griffin-iii-more-just-name-baylor-heisman-winner-espn-magazine

To keep his son's arm sharp, RG2 had Robby throw passes from his couch. Later, he had him throwing passes from a chair in a parking lot.

[darrelgreenie]

My problem is how do I eliminate the impact an o-line has? I think there would have to be a timer in place, that says for example any 3 step drop a QB is sacked on within x amt of time would be void, and any 5 step drop a QB is sacked on within y amt of time would be void. But then how do you eliminate the lines that allow for a QB to have additional time? I think in that instance I'd have to use a range QB gets 3-5 seconds on a drop, if after 5 seconds they can still throw the ball without either a.) manipulating the pocket or b.) escaping the pocket, said play would be voided or be deducted into a lower level. Obviously the range in time will depend on the drop back/play-action

Now we're cooking.

Their are averages/estimates out there for the length of time from drop back to release on 3-5-7 step drops IIRC 1.2 for 3 step 1.5 for 5 step......

But since we have an unlimited budget and resources I would time each QB and average their time from snap to drop back to the top of the drop.

If the protection is good for the given time frame then the OL held their end

If the protection is beat before the time needed then its a no fault play on the QB due to pressure

If the QB is still able to make something good happen its bonus points

If the QB takes a bad situation and makes it worse its negative points

[Oldfan]

I've always felt that the standard QB rating is a flawed model to some degree. And while I'm not saying we break out the annointing oils for RG3 just yet (to steal a Bill Parcells line), boy does he look like a real game-changer for us. And for the league. Thanks for the thought-out input Oldfan.

Thanks for the positive response.

---------- Post added November-20th-2012 at 10:46 AM ----------

Interesting, different idea but heard RG III in an interview crediting his deep throwing prowess in part from the year he was injured and his dad had him throwing from a chair

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7820629/nfl-robert-griffin-iii-more-just-name-baylor-heisman-winner-espn-magazine

To keep his son's arm sharp, RG2 had Robby throw passes from his couch. Later, he had him throwing passes from a chair in a parking lot.

Throwing from a chair produces the same motion as throwing from both knees. Throwing from a chair is just more comfortable.

[Hitman21ST]

Now we're cooking.

Their are averages/estimates out there for the length of time from drop back to release on 3-5-7 step drops IIRC 1.2 for 3 step 1.5 for 5 step......

But since we have an unlimited budget and resources I would time each QB and average their time from snap to drop back to the top of the drop.

If the protection is good for the given time frame then the OL held their end

If the protection is beat before the time needed then its a no fault play on the QB due to pressure

If the QB is still able to make something good happen its bonus points

If the QB takes a bad situation and makes it worse its negative points

We would also need to take into account the time from hitting the top of the drop to release then. Like KDawg said, a 1 step drop is generally an immediate release, while the QB may have to hold the ball for a split second on a 3 or 5 step drop, depending on the route.

Then you would need to take into consideration does he need to climb the pocket?

This would be fun

---------- Post added November-20th-2012 at 10:50 AM ----------

Throwing from a chair produces the same motion as throwing from both knees. Throwing from a chair is just more comfortable.

Honest question: how does that improve quickness in the throwing motion?