The Sisko Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I have to go along with JMS for a change . Newt has a big advantage over his competition when it comes to overall brains, truly relevant political experience, and policy-savvy. I don't think he is likely to remain viable and successful all the way to the nomination, but it's a much more beneficial process for the the GOP to have him in the game. This. I've seen Newt speak quite a few times at work functions and his political savvy is on par with his overall hubris and poor judgment in marital/personal matters. He's an incredibly bright guy capable of stunning lapses in judgment that might cause him to self destruct before he can even get to the primary, let alone the nomination. My take is that Newt knew long ago that the GOP field amounts to a very weak Romney and a bunch of guys. Romney will have a really hard time getting through the GOP primaries given his religion and flip-floppiness on the issues. Moreover I think Newt knows the Tea Bagger schtick worked during the midterms, but with Obama on the ticket it would absolutely bomb. So Newt shoots the political fish in a barrel by throwing Ryan's brain dead plan overboard while Romney does his typical routine of trying to win today's political fight with yesterday's position. If Newt can keep his zipper and his mouth shut at the right times he should all but coast to the nomination. The problem is that I'd put the odds of that happening at 50/50. I certainly hope he's able to get to the nomination as it's the best thing for the race and the country. And I don't say that because I'm a Newt fan but because aside from the very flawed Romney, he's about the only serious candidate on the GOP side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 And I don't say that because I'm a Newt fan but because aside from the very flawed Romney, he's about the only serious candidate on the GOP side. Did you consider O a serious candidate? Political races are funny things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 True. Actually, not until Obama won a couple of primaries did I start to take him seriously. After I took a closer look though I was quickly sold on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 He is a pretty good salesman,sometimes all it takes is exposure and capturing hope to get the big mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 damned dbl post crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavyDave Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Ryan's Medicare plan would not take effect until TEN years from now. What should be the real focus is Medicaid when you look at how much it has increased since Obama has been in office. If the economy and unemployment remains the same next year will be an Anybody but Obama election. The GOP candidate as long as she or he is Conservative and sticks to being a conservative will have a better chance of winning. I do not believe there are enough people who are dimmer than 2 watt light bulbs who believe Obama's sudden shift "to the right" (verbally) is legit and not a campaign move, will vote with his base who will vote for him no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 70 percent of those on the right are in favor of a health insurance mandate? Where do you see that? More than 70% of Republicans' date=' 70% of tea party, and about 90% of independents are Against Ryan's Medicaid cuts. And here is the real kicker... Cuts which Mitt Romney has endorsed, even though they run 100% counter to Mitt Romney's health care plan he crafted and passed for Massachusetts. His biggest achievement as governor. This makes healthcare an ideal wedge issue for Newt and an incredible vulnerability for Mitt. Truely though their is no wiggle room for Mitt on this issue. Mitt must carry the water as the extreme right candidate whether he agrees with it or not; because given his record that's where he's most vulnerable. If he backs off that position now he's not only flip flop'ed, but double flip flop'ed. McClatchy Poll: 73% Of Republicans and 70% of Tea Partiers Oppose Cuts To Medicare http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/20...e-republicans/ ---------- Post added May-17th-2011 at 08:06 AM ---------- Newt isn't going to win the nomination. All he will do is make the debates interesting but he will not last long and will be one of the people who drops out early. Newt is the second strongest candidate in the Republican race. Mitt has more current experience and has been plowing the field longer than Newt. Mitt also has deeper pockets and better ties to large GOP fundraisers... Newt is smarter, more respected, more experienced, and frankly a better polititian than Mitt. Mitt is very vulnerable on his record and flip floping. Look for everything Newt does to be themes off of Mitt's flip flopping. I could see newt winning this election easy. He's not the front runner or anything but he's a bold political strategist who has carved up more secure inscrutable targets than Mitt Romney before. Push Mitt romney off a cliff and Newt is the front runner for serious republicans overnight. ---------- Post added May-17th-2011 at 08:21 AM ---------- Romney will have a really hard time getting through the GOP primaries given his religion and flip-floppiness on the issues. Mitt has totally mitigated that weakness. Mitt is currently the leading candidate for the religious right. I was having dinner with Senator Durgan's communications director probable a year ago and he was telling me then Mitt was the religious rights candidate if Huckabee doesn't run, and he said Huckabee wouldn't run. Mitt's done a lot of machinations behind the scenes to accomplish this. Primarily Mitt has hired all the religious right whackadoodles on the hill to be part of his campaign, including my diner companion. Deep pockets cover lots of blemishes. I would also take issue with your characterization that Newt is prone to fly off the handle. Compared the the skirts in this GOP race and Pawlenty from Minn. Gingrich is a Sphinx. Moreover I think Newt knows the Tea Bagger schtick worked during the midterms, but with Obama on the ticket it would absolutely bomb. So Newt shoots the political fish in a barrel by throwing Ryan's brain dead plan overboard while Romney does his typical routine of trying to win today's political fight with yesterday's position. I agree with all of that except the first part about Newt looking passed the tea party. Polls show even the tea party folks don't think much of Ryan's "brain dead plan". Newt isn't looking passed the tea party; he's pandering to them while wedging Romney away from them every time he opens his mouth to defend himself. If Newt can keep his zipper and his mouth shut at the right times he should all but coast to the nomination. The problem is that I'd put the odds of that happening at 50/50. I certainly hope he's able to get to the nomination as it's the best thing for the race and the country. And I don't say that because I'm a Newt fan but because aside from the very flawed Romney, he's about the only serious candidate on the GOP side. Again I disagree that's a real problem. How many speaker candidates did the Republicans have to pass over when trying to replace Newt back in the mid 1990's? Three or four, that we know of; before they found one who didn't cheat on his wife? Cheating on your wife in politics isn't a liability it's a vocational skill. Mitt doesn't want to go their with the polygamy in his recent family tree. Newt is actually pretty conservative choice in the republican party, he likes women, and women of consenting age. ---------- Post added May-17th-2011 at 08:37 AM ---------- Ryan's Medicare plan would not take effect until TEN years from now. What should be the real focus is Medicaid when you look at how much it has increased since Obama has been in office. Healthcare costs in the US have been at three times the rate of inflation since the early 1970's. Used to be about 3% of GDP and today it's closing in on 20% of GDP If the economy and unemployment remains the same next year will be an Anybody but Obama election. It will never be a Paul Ryan's election. Not unless he lies to us about what he wants to do. The GOP candidate as long as she or he is Conservative and sticks to being a conservative will have a better chance of winning. [/qoute] Problem is conservatives in this country dont' understand what conservative means. They don't recognize it when they see it and must bee told who is the conservative in the race. That's how GW Bush got elected twice with overwhelming and record turn outs from "conservatives". There is nothing fiscally conservative about Ryan or Ryan's plan. It's frankly an extrodinarily radical proposition. The tried and tested conservative in the GOP race today is Newt. I do not believe there are enough people who are dimmer than 2 watt light bulbs who believe Obama's sudden shift "to the right" (verbally) is legit and not a campaign move, will vote with his base who will vote for him no matter what. Sudden? Where have you been for two years? Reading the republican position papers in the smallest windowless room in your house is my guess. Obama has always govered as a moderate conservative pragmatist. Not unlike both Clinton and Carter before him. The dems haven't put up a real liberal as President since Johnson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 More than 70% of Republicans, 70% of tea party, and about 90% of independents are Against Ryan's Medicaid cuts. And here is the real kicker... Cuts which Mitt Romney has endorsed, even though they run 100% counter to Mitt Romney's health care plan he crafted and passed for Massachusetts. His biggest achievement as governor.This makes healthcare an ideal wedge issue for Newt and an incredible vulnerability for Mitt. Truely though their is no wiggle room for Mitt on this issue. Mitt must carry the water as the extreme right candidate whether he agrees with it or not; because given his record that's where he's most vulnerable. If he backs off that position now he's not only flip flop'ed, but double flip flop'ed. That's true, but no one is discussing the Medicaid part of his criticisms. He is getting killed by both the nuts on FR and the establishment types at the Corner for two things: 1. Accusing Ryan of social engineering, and much more importantly 2. Coming out in favor of a mandate for health insurance. Because of #2, Newt can no longer win the nomination in my opinion. For those of you praising Newt, do you think one can win the Republican nomination in '12 while being in favor of a mandate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prosperity Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I would love to see Newt's math on how this position gets him the nomination. The GOP has morphed into a socially conservative/economincally libertarian party.He has always had issues with the first group. Now' date=' he seems to be openly attacking the second all the while trying to run against the Party establishment. Does he think that by running against the three power groups in the party, he will summons a fourth out of thin air?[/quote'] There are Republicans that are not nutters, Newt will appeal to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Newt is just making noise to get his profile up This is definitely not true. The noise was made after his interview, not during it. He's simply trying to take a centrist position on healthcare. It makes some sense, considering the deal with Obamacare. Americans don't want Obamacare, but the do want an alternative. ---------- Post added May-17th-2011 at 09:48 AM ---------- Ryan's brain dead plan Oh goodness. I'm sure you have a better plan for Medicare solvency, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 There are Republicans that are not nutters, Newt will appeal to them Name three Republicans and/or conservative institutions in favor of a health insurance mandate. Limbaugh blasted Newt. National Review blasted Newt. Free Republic wants to hang Newt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 He apparently doesn't have his finger on the pulse of the right today. At least it doesn't seem like he does. In other words, he's not a racist, xenophobic, war-mongering, hypocritical *******. I see that as a good thing. I've always kind of liked Gingrich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 In other words, he's not a racist, xenophobic, war-mongering, hypocritical *******.I see that as a good thing. I've always kind of liked Gingrich. He's almost certainly 2 of those 4 things. I liked Andrew Sullivan's take on this. The GOP has built up Gingrich as some kind of policy super-genius over the past 20 years. "Say what you will about Newt as a person, but the man is a genius who comes up with more brilliant policy ideas before noon than most politicians devise in a lifetime...." That sort of thing. Suddenly, he is in favor of a health insurance mandate - the exact thing that they they are suing Obama over and destroying Romney with. Is Newt now a policy genius...except for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prosperity Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I can't say I know that many conservative institutions, but I know there's a lot of guys like SHF, Mardi Gras Skins, etc and they'll vote for somebody and it isn't going to be Palin, or Paul, or Romney, and now maybe not Ryan... so with relatively few viable non-nutter candidates, there will be a decent amount of votes that he can sort of take for granted, despite the mandate position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Name three Republicans and/or conservative institutions in favor of a health insurance mandate. Limbaugh blasted Newt. National Review blasted Newt. Free Republic wants to hang Newt. Truth be told' date=' he said he wasn't for a mandate to buy health insurance. He simply said he's for something that makes people responsible for their own bills, and he said that something (e.g. a bond) was up for discussion. ---------- Post added May-17th-2011 at 09:59 AM ---------- In other words, he's not a racist, xenophobic, war-mongering, hypocritical *******. On the other hand, you apparantly have your finger right on the pulse of the left. Congratulations for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On the other hand, you apparantly have your finger right on the pulse of the left. Congratulations for that. War Mongering: Iraq, Republican. Racist: Birthers, Republican Xenophobic: Republican stance on immigration Hypocritical: Entire Tea Party. Republican. *******s: Side effect of the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 War Mongering includes many Democrats too, and our wonderful President has stepped up Afghanistan and intervened in Libya. Racist includes the black panthers and a far too large percentage of the black population, whether anyone wants to mention that or not. Xenophobic is a flat out slur that you should take back. Most Republicans want immigration reform AND have a ton of respect for most the workers who come here. Hypocritical is the entire political world. I guess you missed all of Obama's criticisms of Bush that are now conveniently his own policies. Please pull your head from your rear end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prosperity Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Xenophobic is a flat out slur that you should take back. Most Republicans want immigration reform AND have a ton of respect for most the workers who come here. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I can't say I know that many conservative institutions, but I know there's a lot of guys like SHF, Mardi Gras Skins, etc and they'll vote for somebody and it isn't going to be Palin, or Paul, or Romney, and now maybe not Ryan... so with relatively few viable non-nutter candidates, there will be a decent amount of votes that he can sort of take for granted, despite the mandate position. The Tailgate's little libertarian contingent is hardly representative of anything, let alone voters in the South Carolina primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Xenophobic is a flat out slur that you should take back. Most Republicans want immigration reform AND have a ton of respect for most the workers who come here. . I agree with all your other points, but to say the current version of the Republican party isn't xenophobic is just flat out untrue. The hysteria over the Cordoba Center in New York city and the current Sharia Law is coming to America hysteria has been driven by Republicans. You see it with the dozens of Sharia law bills currently being debated in state houses in very red states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 link? My life? The fact that tons of Republicans hire them? The left acts like Republicans want to round up everyone here illegally and send them back to central America. That's just not true. Republicans want secure borders, to control how many people we let into our country and to not reward people who break the law with special benefits. Are there Xenophobic elements of society? Of course, but again, they're not limited to country boys with dirty hats on. I swear, this board is filled with people who use stereotypes to complain about people who stereotype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 By that definition isn't the Dem party xenophobic as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I agree with all your other points, but to say the current version of the Republican party isn't xenophobic is just flat out untrue.The hysteria over the Cordoba Center in New York city and the current Sharia Law is coming to America hysteria has been driven by Republicans. You see it with the dozens of Sharia law bills currently being debated in state houses in very red states He didn't mention Sharia law, only immigration. I personally believe that the Sharia law issue is overblown and probably not worth even discussing, but I haven't heard anyone's case for why it could actually become a problem. All I've read is a few articles totally discounting it as a legit issue. Without hearing the other side first, I'll withhold judgement. I suppose that could be Xenophobic to some degree, but only against people who actually practice Sharia law (e.g., not all Muslims, right?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 He didn't mention Sharia law, only immigration. I personally believe that the Sharia law issue is overblown and probably not worth even discussing, but I haven't heard anyone's case for why it could actually become a problem. All I've read is a few articles totally discounting it as a legit issue. Without hearing the other side first, I'll withhold judgement. I suppose that could be Xenophobic to some degree, but only against people who actually practice Sharia law (e.g., not all Muslims, right?). Newt has been all over the Sharia law boogeyman for a year now. He is a major reason why its been "overblown" oMvQ95ftvYI Of course this has been augemented by the fact that in 2011 we have seen 13 states introduce bills attempting to ban Sharia Law Newt has played a major, and quite frankly dangerous role in all of this by legitimizing loons like Pam Geller and Robert Spencer by constantly parroting their completely out of touch talking points. "Creeping sharia" and "stealth jihad" are terms created by those 2 fools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 He didn't mention Sharia law, only immigration. I personally believe that the Sharia law issue is overblown and probably not worth even discussing, but I haven't heard anyone's case for why it could actually become a problem. All I've read is a few articles totally discounting it as a legit issue. Without hearing the other side first, I'll withhold judgement. I suppose that could be Xenophobic to some degree, but only against people who actually practice Sharia law (e.g., not all Muslims, right?). It's so overblown that it is showing up on ballots across the country and winning. There seems to be this desire by right-wingers in the Tailgate to act like the issues that really matter to conservatives don't matter. I wasn't here in 2004 when the anti-gay marriage initiatives across the country probably led to Kerry's defeat. I assume the right-wingers were saying, "Eh...it's not a big deal" then too. I give the Republicans credit. They have figured out how to get the local yahoos to the polls. It's fear-mongering via ballot initiatives. And it works like gang-busters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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