SidelineScouting Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 This is an article I wrote tonight, would love to get your opinions on it. Especially considering Washington may be targeting a quarterback in this draft. http://www.sidelinescouting.com/columns/quarterbacks.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Truant Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Good stuff. Definitely keep writing articles. I don't know that I necessarily agree with your position, though. The Browns are a bit of an odd example last year. I think the cream of the crop (Bradford) was far better than any QB in this draft, but McCoy wasn't a highly regarded talent coming into the draft due to his size and arm strength. I think if he was a stronger player the Browns would have addressed the QB more aggressively. Mayock was saying today that 8 QBs have never gone in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. I think that will happen. And I think at least four QBs go off the board in the first. Newton, Gabbert, Locker, and either Dalton or Kap. Anyhow, we'll see on Thursday. I think with the recent success of young QBs in the league there is a great impetus to have a true prospect sitting on your bench... which is going to push some mediocre prospects up a round or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bedlamVR Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 That is a good article - I am sure there will not be 8 QBs off the board on Thursday - but like Truant I think this will be a bumper crop of QBs out in this draft. I have an issue with the McCoy example - There were reasons why he dropped and the Browns knew that the issues would probably stop others from drafting him but it was not a calculated plan to take him 2 rounds later than they could - just like it was not the patriots plan to pass on Tom Brady 6 times before selecting him to be one of the best QBs in the teams history . The Browns had been burnt in their hunt for the QB of the future several times in the recent past and they got to a point where they could afford to take a swing on McCoy, and it just so happened that point was earlier than anyone of the other 31 teams . I also think McCoy is getting an awful lot of praise for a guy who threw 6 interceptions and 1 TD in the last two games of the season and missed games with injury . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polywog999 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I have been saying this for a long time.....pick a QB in the first, and your team is in trouble. Most of them don't pan out. QB's need a lot of time to develop. By then, they go packing to somewhere else and THAT TEAM gets all the perks. Every year, some yahoo tries to throw Payton Manning in my face to PROVE that I don't know my arse from a hole in the ground....and every year somebody drafts a Ryan Lief. It's an endless cycle. We will trade out of the #10 spot. Bank on it. No one is there to be considered worthy of that kind of money....Shanny and crew are all about value. Shanny does a lot with latter round picks, because he is a real coach. He makes players good. He has proven it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman21ST Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 No one is there to be considered worthy of that kind of money IMO Jones, Green, Peterson, and Quinn are, and we'll take one of those four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mursilis Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I have been saying this for a long time.....pick a QB in the first, and your team is in trouble. Most of them don't pan out. QB's need a lot of time to develop. By then, they go packing to somewhere else and THAT TEAM gets all the perks. Every year, some yahoo tries to throw Payton Manning in my face to PROVE that I don't know my arse from a hole in the ground....and every year somebody drafts a Ryan Lief. It's an endless cycle. Peyton Manning is hardly the only example of a first-round QB who didn't become a bust. There's Aaron Rodgers (he had a pretty good year, eh?), Phil Rivers, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford (so far, not looking like a bust), Josh Freeman (ditto), Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb, and on and on. Sure, plenty of QBs taken in the first round become JaMarcus Russell, but plenty don't. I haven't done the research, but I'd guess the odds are better at finding a good-to-great QB in the higher rounds than the lower rounds. At some point a team's got to make that gamble if it doesn't have a solid player at the league's most important position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahons21 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 IMO Jones, Green, Peterson, and Quinn are, and we'll take one of those four. If you believe the "insiders" here than Quinn is no longer our target. It's mentioned that it's due to his tumor, I assume it's also because there's been a lot of talk about him going to ARZ the past week. Jones probably will be there at 10, but again the insiders say we don't like him that much. Sounds like we're gonna move back to 14 and take either Locker/Cam Jordan ---------- Post added April-26th-2011 at 11:00 AM ---------- Peyton Manning is hardly the only example of a first-round QB who didn't become a bust. There's Aaron Rodgers (he had a pretty good year, eh?), Phil Rivers, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford (so far, not looking like a bust), Josh Freeman (ditto), Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb, and on and on. Sure, plenty of QBs taken in the first round become JaMarcus Russell, but plenty don't. I haven't done the research, but I'd guess the odds are better at finding a good-to-great QB in the higher rounds than the lower rounds. At some point a team's got to make that gamble if it doesn't have a solid player at the league's most important position. Someone on this site did some research, I know it wasn't for the entire history of the NFL, but I think it was since maybe 2000 or something. Anyways they found that in the first 25 picks or so QB hit rate was around 50%, but soon after that it drops to a measly 20% and continues a steep drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mursilis Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Someone on this site did some research, I know it wasn't for the entire history of the NFL, but I think it was since maybe 2000 or something. Anyways they found that in the first 25 picks or so QB hit rate was around 50%, but soon after that it drops to a measly 20% and continues a steep drop. Yeah, I sort of remember that now that you mention it - thanks! That sounds about right. Just looking over the NFL stats list for the 2010 season, most of the top passers came from the first two rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveButzHelmet Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I did a thread awhile ago that had some stats about where to draft quarterbacks. I'm not sure if this is the thread that you are referring to, but it has broken the quarterback success rate down by rounds. I am a HUGE believer in taking a quarterback in the 1st round. 2nd round quarterbacks actually have an awful success rate. If you go on this link to the thread it will show you that during the years of 2000-2008 only 1 QB taken in the 2nd round has become a legit starting QB. That was Drew Brees (and he was taken at pick #32 which any other year would have been a first rounder). Here's the link if you're interested. http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?343347-Where-to-draft-a-Quarterback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahons21 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Ya that's exactly the thread, sorry to steal your thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveButzHelmet Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Ya that's exactly the thread, sorry to steal your thunder. Not stealing thunder at all. It's a good conversation to have, and hopefully the info in the post will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Edds Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 nicely written, you make some valid arguments ... though it has happened with players at other position (most recently OL in 2009) ... once the first QB comes off the board, I believe that many teams will start seriously thinking about reaching for a QB (even if it's for the "future"). Even though the lockout keeps these players from getting an early start (and most likely will not be prepared to start day one) ... the thought process of getting in a young QB prospect for the 2012 season might take a front seat to the "win-now" mentality that comes with Free Agency. HAIL. keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probos Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Your article makes too much sense sir -- you are here by banned from this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addicted Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Cute article but disagree with it for several reasons. First, you say that the class isn't as good as the 83 class which is hard to argue, but what isn't hard to argue is the similarity between the 83 class and this years class because it's not always necessary to be great to go in the first round. If there is a high demand for QB's like there is this year then even if a guys not that great a team almost has to draft a QB in the first round if they want to select something more then just a long term prospect. This years draft features so many teams that need a QB including the bottom feeders like the Redskins, to the elite teams like New England and Indy. Almost every team could make a case for needing a QB this year. If the QB run goes the way I'm hoping it does with Newton gone in the first pick, Gabbart going between 2-9, Redskins taking Locker at 10, what you've created is a bigger demand then normal for a QB with so many other teams needing someone. Your article to me is cute. I say it's cute because it trys to make the point that if the class isn't great it means no one will select a QB in the first round. Supply vs Demand sir dictates that isn't the case at all. Your piece ends with you saying no more then 3 QB's go in the first round this year. If only 3 go in the first then I honestly will be shocked. Guys like Kapernick and Dalton are going to go in the first round, it's almost certain. This is not the year to pass on a QB in the first round. So I respectfully disagree with your premise. I'll check back in here on Friday to see which of our predictions is more accurate. Take care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TE#80 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 You really put the "dic" in addicted don't ya lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probos Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Cute article but disagree with it for several reasons. First, you say that the class isn't as good as the 83 class which is hard to argue, but what isn't hard to argue is the similarity between the 83 class and this years class because it's not always necessary to be great to go in the first round. If there is a high demand for QB's like there is this year then even if a guys not that great a team almost has to draft a QB in the first round if they want to select something more then just a long term prospect. This years draft features so many teams that need a QB including the bottom feeders like the Redskins, to the elite teams like New England and Indy. Almost every team could make a case for needing a QB this year. If the QB run goes the way I'm hoping it does with Newton gone in the first pick, Gabbart going between 2-9, Redskins taking Locker at 10, what you've created is a bigger demand then normal for a QB with so many other teams needing someone. Your article to me is cute. I say it's cute because it trys to make the point that if the class isn't great it means no one will select a QB in the first round. Supply vs Demand sir dictates that isn't the case at all. Your piece ends with you saying no more then 3 QB's go in the first round this year. If only 3 go in the first then I honestly will be shocked. Guys like Kapernick and Dalton are going to go in the first round, it's almost certain. This is not the year to pass on a QB in the first round. So I respectfully disagree with your premise. I'll check back in here on Friday to see which of our predictions is more accurate. Take care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addicted Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Troll? Are you freaking kidding me? The guy asked for opinions on his article. I read it and provided an opposing one. How is that trolling? How could you think I was trolling giving an opinion on this? Sorry that you can't handle another viewpoint. If you think like this guy does that only 3 QB's are going in round 1 this year I think your wishful thinking. Everyone needs QB's and no ones going to want to trade up in the 2nd to get one and there is a limited supply of better then average ones so there's going to be a ton of them taken in round one....In my opinion. I sure hope you don't attack everyone who doesn't think like you do, or lives in Texas. Later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SidelineScouting Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Cute article but disagree with it for several reasons. First, you say that the class isn't as good as the 83 class which is hard to argue, but what isn't hard to argue is the similarity between the 83 class and this years class because it's not always necessary to be great to go in the first round. If there is a high demand for QB's like there is this year then even if a guys not that great a team almost has to draft a QB in the first round if they want to select something more then just a long term prospect. This years draft features so many teams that need a QB including the bottom feeders like the Redskins, to the elite teams like New England and Indy. Almost every team could make a case for needing a QB this year. If the QB run goes the way I'm hoping it does with Newton gone in the first pick, Gabbart going between 2-9, Redskins taking Locker at 10, what you've created is a bigger demand then normal for a QB with so many other teams needing someone. Your article to me is cute. I say it's cute because it trys to make the point that if the class isn't great it means no one will select a QB in the first round. Supply vs Demand sir dictates that isn't the case at all. Your piece ends with you saying no more then 3 QB's go in the first round this year. If only 3 go in the first then I honestly will be shocked. Guys like Kapernick and Dalton are going to go in the first round, it's almost certain. This is not the year to pass on a QB in the first round. So I respectfully disagree with your premise. I'll check back in here on Friday to see which of our predictions is more accurate. Take care The demand is high for starting caliber quarterbacks. There are maybe two or three in this class. The demand is not high for guys who will take two to three years to develop. Which is the case with this class. If you think a guy like Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, or Jake Locker can just step in and start next year, you're wrong. Those guys will take time. One thing I didn't even mention in my article is the teams that are looking for replacements for their current franchise QBs, such as the Patriots or Colts... people look at the example of Aaron Rodgers and think they can develop a quarterback behind their stud for a few years and then it's an easy transition. That is rarely the case. Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers are the only two I can think of off the top of my head. Aaron Rodgers heading into the 2005 draft was being talked about as the #1 overall draft pick. It was between him and Alex Smith. That's not the case this year. Carolina isn't deciding between Christian Ponder and Cam Newton at #1. The poster before made the argument that first round quarterbacks are much more likely to succeed than second round quarterbacks. That is because of the talent level of first round quarterbacks. Most of the quarterbacks in this class (Anybody not named Newton or Gabbert) would be selected in the second or third round any other season. But due to the weak quarterback class have been pushed into the first round discussion. I would view guys like Ponder, Kaepernick, Mallett, Locker, and Dalton as second-third round quarterbacks and would expect their success rates to be the same as other second round prospects even if they end up being drafted in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPCreativelab Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Cute article but disagree with it for several reasons. First, you say that the class isn't as good as the 83 class which is hard to argue, but what isn't hard to argue is the similarity between the 83 class and this years class because it's not always necessary to be great to go in the first round. If there is a high demand for QB's like there is this year then even if a guys not that great a team almost has to draft a QB in the first round if they want to select something more then just a long term prospect. This years draft features so many teams that need a QB including the bottom feeders like the Redskins, to the elite teams like New England and Indy. Almost every team could make a case for needing a QB this year. If the QB run goes the way I'm hoping it does with Newton gone in the first pick, Gabbart going between 2-9, Redskins taking Locker at 10, what you've created is a bigger demand then normal for a QB with so many other teams needing someone. Your article to me is cute. I say it's cute because it trys to make the point that if the class isn't great it means no one will select a QB in the first round. Supply vs Demand sir dictates that isn't the case at all. Your piece ends with you saying no more then 3 QB's go in the first round this year. If only 3 go in the first then I honestly will be shocked. Guys like Kapernick and Dalton are going to go in the first round, it's almost certain. This is not the year to pass on a QB in the first round. So I respectfully disagree with your premise. I'll check back in here on Friday to see which of our predictions is more accurate. Take care OK, so say we end up with Julio Jones and Jake Locker. Both of them become busts. are you happy that we tried, or will you be pissed that we again wasted valuable draft picks? I am just curious as to what your opinion is on that. Do you feel that even if there are defensive players out there that our staff feels fit our system perfectly and help in the rebuilding process, that you would rather them take someone they arent that high on, just to say that we drafted offense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addicted Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The demand is high for starting caliber quarterbacks. There are maybe two or three in this class. The demand is not high for guys who will take two to three years to develop. Which is the case with this class. If you think a guy like Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, or Jake Locker can just step in and start next year, you're wrong. Those guys will take time. Will they? That's impossible to say or know and just pure speculation. What isn't speculation and what you can say is that teams are likely to take a QB in the first round if they think a guy could: 1. Turn out to be very good with some patience 2. Don't have that many needs to fill 3. See a massive run on QB's Point three you yet again have missed on. It's a lemming effect if you will. If teams think there are 20 teams who could use or take a QB and they see 6 guys they rank as being productive starters in the class and three of them go in picks 1-10 I guarentee you that teams needing QB's will take the old rankings and throw them out the window to ensure they actually get a QB. Saying a team won't take a QB in the first round if they need one simply because they don't grade out as a 1st rounder but grade out as a 2nd rounder isn't going to work this year. The leagues been watered down so much this is the first time in history were 2/3rds of teams have an immediate or very close to immediate need for a starting QB. Your thinking is the old way of doing business and the premium placed on QB's is skyrocketing. That's not even mentioning the effect that different opinions will have on this class. It's already well known there are teams who place Dalton and Kapernick at the top of there draft boards for QB's. In fact this year there is more different opinions on QB's then ever before. Some teams think Cam's the best, others wouldn't touch him for a 1st or 2nd round pick and a guy like Dalton is looked at by some teams as the 2nd best in this class. When you have such different opinions as these and the demand is so high for a QB like it is now I can't see how you could say only 3 guys are going in the first round. Its the most wide open situation I can ever recall. One thing I didn't even mention in my article is the teams that are looking for replacements for their current franchise QBs, such as the Patriots or Colts... people look at the example of Aaron Rodgers and think they can develop a quarterback behind their stud for a few years and then it's an easy transition. That is rarely the case. Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers are the only two I can think of off the top of my head. Part of the problem with this is that guys who would fit that like a Matt Cassel, a Bret Farve, a Kevin Kolb, and so forth is that teams usually have these players but think they can trade them for more value then they could holding onto them because they can stick with the regular guy for a longer time. It's not that teams rarely groom future starting QB's, the point here is QB's with potential are so highly valued that for a short term gain some teams choose to let a guy go to another team. Then you have guys like Tom Brady who would fall into your list, he was groomed as a late round pick and thrown into the starting job and took it over from Bledsoe but I guess you forgot that? Either way its not rare for teams to bring along starters like this Aaron Rodgers heading into the 2005 draft was being talked about as the #1 overall draft pick. It was between him and Alex Smith. That's not the case this year. Carolina isn't deciding between Christian Ponder and Cam Newton at #1. No but like I just said lots of teams don't have Newton as the top QB in the class. Because Carolina has him ranked that high doesn't mean he is the best of the class and when you have different opinions on guys like this you'll naturally see more taken in round one then just your supposed 3 The poster before made the argument that first round quarterbacks are much more likely to succeed than second round quarterbacks. That is because of the talent level of first round quarterbacks. Most of the quarterbacks in this class (Anybody not named Newton or Gabbert) would be selected in the second or third round any other season. But due to the weak quarterback class have been pushed into the first round discussion. I would view guys like Ponder, Kaepernick, Mallett, Locker, and Dalton as second-third round quarterbacks and would expect their success rates to be the same as other second round prospects even if they end up being drafted in the first round. You view those guys like that, most NFL teams do not. And fight it as you seem to want to, the NFL is in it's first real year of QB shortages so there will be a rippling effect come thursday or else I'm wrong. But I don't think I am. Too many tea leaves screaming "take a QB" blowing in the wind ---------- Post added April-26th-2011 at 02:35 PM ---------- OK, so say we end up with Julio Jones and Jake Locker. This would never happen unless we moved back into the first round to get one of them. But for the sake of your arguement my answer is Both of them become busts. are you happy that we tried, or will you be pissed that we again wasted valuable draft picks? I would not be happy they were "busts". I would be happy that the team tried to address the biggest need we have (present and future) and would hope they would try again to fix this. In other words look at what Carolina did last year and are about to do this year. Last season they took 2 QB's and this year they will take another. It sucks for them to miss on 2 quarterbacks in the same year but at least they have the brains, guts, and nerve not to be scared to fail again like the Redskins do, but they fell off that horse and are getting on for another ride. I respect the hell out of that. What I don't respect is the puss way we've treated QB's on this team over the past 20 years. We've taken 1 top 10 QB, and 2 lower first round QB's and have never developed a franchise QB and appeared scared as hell to even try. If we had demanded the team find its own franchise guy we would have taken Aaron Rogers instead of Carlos Rogers but we once again tried to skimp on this position and put "BPA" on top. Stupid move and another failure for us. Untill we get our franchise guy we will continue to look for one. Until we find one we should be looking to take one every year. In my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPCreativelab Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 @Addicted yea i just threw those names out there, thanks for the response... im not sure i agree that we should take a QB every year, or always focus on offense, but the offense does need attention. i do think the Skins are shy as an organization after so many failures at draft picks, guys either not working out at all, or not working out for us, and becoming decent to great players on other teams. i do think we need to bite the bullet. we are due, we need something to wash that Shuler taste out of our mouths.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addicted Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 im not sure i agree that we should take a QB every year, or always focus on offense, but the offense does need attention. i do think the Skins are shy as an organization after so many failures at draft picks, guys either not working out at all, or not working out for us, and becoming decent to great players on other teams.i do think we need to bite the bullet. we are due, we need something to wash that Shuler taste out of our mouths.... QB position to me is not the same as any other positon on the field. In today's NFL thinking we are going to take another teams QB and solve our issue at the positon doesn't work at all unless your willing to give a deal like Chicago did (2 number 1's, 2 number 2's) for Cutler. We have failed at ever level since Williams with other teams QB's. It doesn't work! I'm not suggesting that we take a QB every year. I'm suggesting we take one until we find a franchise QB. The problem doesn't disappear magically. Its irresponsible to think we would get dumb lucky with some 6th round QB. And the only way to get the ghost of Schuler out of this team is to draft a good one. Until we do it's all bandges and that doesn't work in today's NFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Lloyd Christmas Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 SB winning QBs over the past 10 years: 2010: Rodgers - 1st round 2009: Brees - 2nd round (1st pick) 2008: Roethlisburger - 1st round 2007: Eli - 1st round 2006: Peyton - 1st round 2005: Roethlisburger - 1st round 2004: Brady - 6th round 2003: Brady - 6th round 2002: Johnson - 9th round 2001: Brady - 6th round moral of the story: you need a 1st round QB to win a superbowl, or you have to have one of the luckiest picks in NFL history (brady in round 6). until we get a 1st round QB (or insanely lucky), we arent going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailToTheRedskins14 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 I honestly don't think many QB's will go in the first round. Gabbert and maybe Newton by a team reaching. Other than that, I think most guys will drop to the third round and later. People think we need to jump on one in the 2nd, but I disagree. Every year I see guys that are "late 1st, early 2nd" and end up going in the 5th-7th rounds. This year won't be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman21ST Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 SB winning QBs over the past 10 years:2010: Rodgers - 1st round - Great defense 2009: Brees - 2nd round (1st pick) - Defense won it with that pick 6 2008: Roethlisburger - 1st round - Great defense 2007: Eli - 1st round - Insane defense, amazing luck with "the catch" 2006: Peyton - 1st round - I'll give you this one 2005: Roethlisburger - 1st round - Great defense, some lucky calls 2004: Brady - 6th round 2003: Brady - 6th round 2002: Johnson - 9th round 2001: Brady - 6th round moral of the story: you need a 1st round QB to win a superbowl, or you have to have one of the luckiest picks in NFL history (brady in round 6). until we get a 1st round QB (or insanely lucky), we arent going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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