Breaking down Shanahan's last 3 drafts in Denver....we are in good hands

[Oldfan]

... But I do have other people in this thread that have agreed with me and not you.

Threads that appeal to homers are always popular whether their arguments make sense or not.

You dropped the argument because I proved you wrong...you just aren't big enough to admit it.

We need a <stamps foot and insists> emoticon to close out statements like yours.

If you don't consider replacing your starting QB, #1 and #2 receivers, 3/5 of your offensive line, and starting RB all within three years rebuilding...I'd like to find out what you would consider a rebuild.

Seven of 22 starters over three years is 10.6% per year. I think you'll find that's a less than average turnover in the NFL. It would take nine years for a complete turnover at that rate.

You are also hunching on Plummer. He was only 33 and still good to go when Shanahan benched him for Cutler. Plummer retired in spite rather than report to Tampa Bay when traded.

[Darkstarr]

7 of 22 over three years? I assume you are talking offense and defense, Since I count 7 offense starters changed in 3 years did he not change anyone on defense in those 3 years?

[RandyHolt]

He looted the Skins for the pick that became Brandon Marshall.

[Gator Bait]

Threads that appeal to homers are always popular whether their arguments make sense or not.

very true...you are right....now I need an emoticon that says "damn it"

We need a <stamps foot and insists> emoticon to close out statements like yours.

yeah...you tell em

Seven of 22 starters over three years is 10.6% per year. I think you'll find that's a less than average turnover in the NFL. It would take nine years for a complete turnover at that rate.

as someone else has already pointed out..that was just starters on the offensive side of the ball; I didn't even get into the defensive side of the ball.....plus, you can't use statistics to define a rebuild. It is common sense that if you have to rebuild your offensive line, replace your starting QB, RB, and both starting receivers in a matter of three years, you were definitely in rebuilding mode. The players I listed were also replaced via draft, we didn't even explore the starters that were replaced via free agency.

You are also hunching on Plummer. He was only 33 and still good to go when Shanahan benched him for Cutler. Plummer retired in spite rather than report to Tampa Bay when traded.

Plummer may have only been 33, but he was replaced for a reason...he just wasn't very effective; this seems to be in the age range that QBs really decline. It isn't very common that you have guys like Brady and Manning playing at a high level into their mid 30s.

Plummer was actually never that good to begin with..he was very much over hyped because of his mobility and gunslinger mentality.

[Oldfan]

...as someone else has already pointed out..that was just starters on the offensive side of the ball; I didn't even get into the defensive side of the ball.....plus, you can't use statistics to define a rebuild. It is common sense that if you have to rebuild your offensive line, replace your starting QB, RB, and both starting receivers in a matter of three years, you were definitely in rebuilding mode. The players I listed were also replaced via draft, we didn't even explore the starters that were replaced via free agency.

Plummer may have only been 33, but he was replaced for a reason...he just wasn't very effective; this seems to be in the age range that QBs really decline. It isn't very common that you have guys like Brady and Manning playing at a high level into their mid 30s.

Plummer was actually never that good to begin with..he was very much over hyped because of his mobility and gunslinger mentality.

You first say that Mike had to rebuild the 2005 team because it was old, but you included Plummer who you now say had to be replaced because he wasn't ever very good (Although good enough that his team was 13-3 in 2005).

Okay, I did some homework for you. Only six members of the 2005 Bronco starters remained in 2008 [b.Hamilton, DJ.Williams, Champ, Foxworth, N.Ferguson, J.Lynch]. However, only eight members of the 2002 Broncos were still with the team in 2005 [Portis, R.Smith, Nalen, Hamilton, Anderson, Lepsis, Wilson, Gold].

So, we don't know if that kind of turnover is typical of the NFL, but Shanahan's turnover rate for three years after 2005 wasn't much higher than his turnover rate for three years prior to 2005.

I define a "rebuild" as rebuilding the starting core, offense and defense, through the draft. Shanny used free agents and trades to try to stay "competitive." That's not a rebuild in my book. Free agency is a source for gap filling not for finding the talent to rebuild.

Atogwe isn't a block you use to build a foundation. He's a 29 year-old B-grade gap filler coming off a couple of below average years.

[earl]

not to poo poo the OP's claim, but my buddy is a die hard broncos fan and we have been debating football for years. His reaction to the Shanny firing in Denver was that Shanny is a great coach, but he has no business in the front office. He always said, even while shanny was still w/ denver, that he was the absolute worst at drafting.... Shanny didn't see eye to eye with the franchise when it came to how much control he should have.....

and so in 2006 the broncos brought in the Goodman brothers to basically manage the draft among other things. Thus the spike in the quality of the drafts and the rift between Shanny and the denver broncos. Take it for what its worth, but it seems like most die hard bronco fans credit the Goodman's for the drafts that you have built your hopes on.... And these aren't sour grapes from a jilted Bronco fan. My buddy has always felt this way about shanny and warned me the day we signed him that he would be successful if BA is really the GM, but if he's just a Shanny puppet we would be doomed to a well coached no talent team perpetually 8-8.

don't kill the messanger, just relaying the honest perspective of a bronco fan.

[Conn]

and so in 2006 the broncos brought in the Goodman brothers to basically manage the draft among other things. Thus the spike in the quality of the drafts

From what I've read, this isn't true at all. Its pretty well documented that Shanahan put in crazy amounts of time studying film and made all of the picks himself the last few years, hand-picking the guys from those successful recent drafts. He almost literally lived and breathed scouting leading up to the draft, and the results show it. The version of the story that your friend gave, that I quoted, doesn't seem to fit with that at all.

[Gator Bait]

You first say that Mike had to rebuild the 2005 team because it was old, but you included Plummer who you now say had to be replaced because he wasn't ever very good (Although good enough that his team was 13-3 in 2005).

Okay, I did some homework for you. Only six members of the 2005 Bronco starters remained in 2008 [b.Hamilton, DJ.Williams, Champ, Foxworth, N.Ferguson, J.Lynch]. However, only eight members of the 2002 Broncos were still with the team in 2005 [Portis, R.Smith, Nalen, Hamilton, Anderson, Lepsis, Wilson, Gold].

So, we don't know if that kind of turnover is typical of the NFL, but Shanahan's turnover rate for three years after 2005 wasn't much higher than his turnover rate for three years prior to 2005.

I define a "rebuild" as rebuilding the starting core, offense and defense, through the draft. Shanny used free agents and trades to try to stay "competitive." That's not a rebuild in my book. Free agency is a source for gap filling not for finding the talent to rebuild.

Atogwe isn't a block you use to build a foundation. He's a 29 year-old B-grade gap filler coming off a couple of below average years.

now you appear to be shifting into the redskins....but first....you say a rebuild is "rebuilding the starting core, offense and defense"

so without getting into the defense (which only returned half) and you replace your starting QB, RB, both starting WRs and 3/5 offensive lineman that is definitely a rebuild

as far as the skins are concerned...he definitely didn't come in with rebuilding in mind...that was apparent when he traded a 2nd & 4th round pick for a 34 year old QB and a 3rd round pick for a 29 year old Tackle coming off an injury.

[paloosa]

he drafted well but they didn't turn out to be guys that stuck with the team. Of course neither did Shanny. Only time will tell.

[Gator Bait]

he drafted well but they didn't turn out to be guys that stuck with the team. Of course neither did Shanny. Only time will tell.

they didn't stick with the team because the McDaniel's regime traded them all away. At least part of the offensive line stayed together.

[Skinsinparadise]

Looking at the offense Shanny left behind in Denver

QB: Jay Cutler

LT: Ryan Clady

RT: R. Harris

RB/FB: Ryan Torrain, Peyton Hillis

WR: Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall

TE: Tony Sheffler

All YOUNG good to stud players, that lineup was loaded. If we had that lineup, we'd be pretty excited about the future. To me the whole characterization about whether Shanny rebuilds or not rebuilds is a blanket generalization that is meaningless IMO in the scheme of things. I can label someone whatever i want. I can define rebuilding or not rebuilding my own way to serve whatever argument i got.

For me personally, if you have young good to above average players in just about every position, that's my definition of rebuilding. And at least when it came to his offense, no question in my mind he rebuilt that team.

But yeah you can make the litmus test of defining rebuilding to be impossible to meet. You can say you need to have a bad year, 3-13, and hit rock bottom first where you overhaul the complete roster and go completely young at every position. The funny thing is though really hardly ANYONE meets those standards, the so called rebuilding teams like the Lions, Rams, yeah last year signed some 30 plus year old veterans, Tampa Bay the year before traded picks for a veteran, on and on.

[Oldfan]

....you say a rebuild is "rebuilding the starting core, offense and defense"

...so without getting into the defense (which only returned half) and you replace your starting QB, RB, both starting WRs and 3/5 offensive lineman that is definitely a rebuild

If you would like to shift your position to "Shanny rebuilt the offense through the draft," I'll spot you the QB position and agree. But, to imply that he rebuilt the team through the draft is deceptive advertising.

[Gator Bait]

Looking at the offense Shanny left behind in Denver

QB: Jay Cutler

LT: Ryan Clady

RT: R. Harris

RB/FB: Ryan Torrain, Peyton Hillis

WR: Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall

TE: Tony Sheffler

All YOUNG good to stud players, that lineup was loaded. If we had that lineup, we'd be pretty excited about the future. To me the whole characterization about whether Shanny rebuilds or not rebuilds is a blanket generalization that is meaningless IMO in the scheme of things. I can label someone whatever i want. I can define rebuilding or not rebuilding my own way to serve whatever argument i got.

For me personally, if you have young good to above average players in just about every position, that's my definition of rebuilding. And at least when it came to his offense, no question in my mind he rebuilt that team.

But yeah you can make the litmus test of defining rebuilding to be impossible to meet. You can say you need to have a bad year, 3-13, and hit rock bottom first where you overhaul the complete roster and go completely young at every position. The funny thing is though really hardly ANYONE meets those standards, the so called rebuilding teams like the Lions, Rams, yeah last year signed some 30 plus year old veterans, Tampa Bay the year before traded picks for a veteran, on and on.

I agree 100%

---------- Post added March-10th-2011 at 09:31 AM ----------

If you would like to shift your position to "Shanny rebuilt the offense through the draft," I'll spot you the QB position and agree. But, to imply that he rebuilt the team through the draft is deceptive advertising.

we can definitely agree on the first part. As far as me "implying that he rebuilt the team through the draft"......I never even brought up rebuilding until you started saying that I cherry-picked the drafts that I used as example (which obviously I didn't because they were consecutive drafts) Our little debate has pretty much derailed the original meaning of the thread. The whole reason to create this thread was to show how good Shanahan's last few drafts are (and being that we really need a few good drafts to get us back on track) I believe we are in good hands. I'm confident Shanahan will draft the right players to get this team back on track (which he has already started by drafting a franchise LT....when was the last time this team drafted an impact offensive Lineman before last year? We've all been screaming for one for YEARS)

[Forehead]

I'm putting my money on Gator Bait to win this battle, simply because he'll probably live longer Otherwise this is just two rams butting heads over and over.

[Oldfan]

SIP: All YOUNG good to stud players, that lineup was loaded. If we had that lineup, we'd be pretty excited about the future.

No question about it.

To me the whole characterization about whether Shanny rebuilds or not rebuilds is a blanket generalization that is meaningless IMO in the scheme of things. I can label someone whatever i want. I can define rebuilding or not rebuilding my own way to serve whatever argument i got.

Sure, you can define "rebuild" anyway you want. But, if your definition doesn't come close to the way NFL fans apply it in ordinary usage, then your definition is worthless.

For me personally, if you have young good to above average players in just about every position, that's my definition of rebuilding. And at least when it came to his offense, no question in my mind he rebuilt that team.

The sentence I underlined doesn't make sense. The offense is half a team (if you forget special teams), not a whole team. If you want to claim that replacing five or six players through the draft was a rebuild of the offense, I won't argue. But, when you claim he rebuilt the team, you are gilding the lily.

But yeah you can make the litmus test of defining rebuilding to be impossible to meet. You can say you need to have a bad year, 3-13, and hit rock bottom first where you overhaul the complete roster and go completely young at every position.

Have you read anyone in this thread creating impossible standards for a rebuild? If so, please supply a quote.

The funny thing is though really hardly ANYONE meets those standards, the so called rebuilding teams like the Lions, Rams, yeah last year signed some 30 plus year old veterans, Tampa Bay the year before traded picks for a veteran, on and on.

a) exceptions don't disprove a general rule; the Lions' current decision makers have used the draft well

not all teams who obviously should be in a rebuild mode do it intelligently; the Rams have floundered quite a bit on their way back

[Gator Bait]

I'm putting my money on Gator Bait to win this battle, simply because he'll probably live longer Otherwise this is just two rams butting heads over and over.

hahahah....that is funny as **** man.....I'm gonna live longer. Mean, but funny!

[earl]

From what I've read, this isn't true at all. Its pretty well documented that Shanahan put in crazy amounts of time studying film and made all of the picks himself the last few years, hand-picking the guys from those successful recent drafts. He almost literally lived and breathed scouting leading up to the draft, and the results show it. The version of the story that your friend gave, that I quoted, doesn't seem to fit with that at all.

Like i said these are the sentiments that Bronco fans have. and to confirm what my buddy told me i asked the question regarding Shanny over at Orangemane.com. and listen to what they have to say. Take it for what its worth, but they like the folks over here at extremeskins follow thier team religiously.

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=97317

"The Goodmans are Jeff and his son John. Jeff was a well respected long-time scout/personnel guy and his son John was not so respected with a law background that he used to help parlay a job as an Assistant GM. In Shanahan's words, they deserved the credit for the 2006, 2007 and 2008 drafts (although I wouldn't want to take credit for 2007 as only 1 of 4 picks hit). The general consensus is that Jeff deserved the credit as Broncos owner Pat Bowlen wanted to reel in spending on garbage free agents (arguably Shanny's greatest weakness) and more emphasis was put on the draft. "

[Oldfan]

Gaitor Bait...As far as me "implying that he rebuilt the team through the draft"......I never even brought up rebuilding until you started saying that I cherry-picked the drafts that I used as example.

What difference does it make WHEN you said it? You said it.

(which obviously I didn't because they were consecutive drafts)

Picking three out of ten isn't cherry-picking if they are consecutive? Consecutive has nothing to with it. if you flip a coin, and it comes up tails three consecutive times, it does not signal a trend. You can't assume a trend from three consecutive drafts unless you can support that conclusion with further evidence.

Our little debate has pretty much derailed the original meaning of the thread. The whole reason to create this thread was to show how good Shanahan's last few drafts are (and being that we really need a few good drafts to get us back on track) I believe we are in good hands.

How is your thread derailed when I argue that you haven't given a good reason to have such confidence?

I'm confident Shanahan will draft the right players to get this team back on track (which he has already started by drafting a franchise LT....when was the last time this team drafted an impact offensive Lineman before last year? We've all been screaming for one for YEARS)

We thought we were lucky to have two outstanding LT prospects available when we picked at #4 in the last draft. Yet, neither had an exceptional rookie season. So, the jury is still out on that pick.

Here's an interesting debate involving Broncos fans from December 2008 with various opinions on this topic.

http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=131720

[Skinsinparadise]

Sure, you can define "rebuild" anyway you want. But, if your definition doesn't come close to the way NFL fans apply it in ordinary usage, then your definition is worthless.

Agree, but I don't believe that looking at rebuilding as having young good to great players at just about every position on the side of the ball that I referred to -- is some obscure out of left field take of rebuilding.

The sentence I underlined doesn't make sense. The offense is half a team (if you forget special teams), not a whole team. If you want to claim that replacing five or six players through the draft was a rebuild of the offense, I won't argue. But, when you claim he rebuilt the team, you are gilding the lily.

My point was he rebuilt the offense. As for special teams, those are generally depth players, people generally don't talk about special teams in the context of rebuilding so you got me what he did with special teams. As for defense. I recall reading him saying that he felt the offense he built before he left was Superbowl caliber, now he had to do it with defense. He did draft some good young players like Elvis Dumervil.

But yeah if your argument is he didn't rebuild the defense am with you, he tried though, he drafted his share of players. But yeah the whole idea of Shanny doesn't rebuilds he reloads -- well if that was true, how do you explain what happened on offense? How do you explain him hording picks in Denver?

Reload would be more IMO like Gibbs 2. A veteran team. Trading picks for established players, etc. Going young seemed to be Shanny's drill in Denver. And yeah he got off to a late start with that here, but he came around pretty quick. He inherited the oldest roster in the league, turned over about 1/3rd of it, despite having few draft picks and a crappy free agent crop -- and there are now 5 teams older than the Skins. And i bet after this off season we will be at least somewhere in the middle of the pack age wise. Can you attack Shanny for not doing it right away, sure, but am cool with someone shifting heck right in the middle of season 1 and who has a history of trying to procure good young talent.

Have you read anyone in this thread creating impossible standards for a rebuild? If so, please supply a quote.

I've debated this point ad nauseum including with you not per se in this thread becuase i haven't really entered the fray. But all in good spirits. But yeah 3 main things that get thrown at me about Shanny that make no sense to me based on how NFL teams operate at least based on my observation is:

1. Look at Willie Parker, L. Johnson. If that doesn't tell the story that Shanny isn't into rebuilding than what is. To me that's silly, who doesn't invite some veterans to their camp at the league minimum to see what they got.

2. Playing off of the previous point -- people have implied that you can fill you roster with undrafted free agents, no needs for ANY veterans. Even one veteran spoils the broth.

3. You don't say this but others have. The McNabb trade which I grant was a bad one -- defines Shanny as a Vinny trade draft pick happy guy. Although his career in Denver has been the reverse. Good article about that here:

http://www.csnwashington.com/02/16/11/History-shows-Shanahan-likes-to-collect-/landing.html?blockID=411533&feedID=6355#cmnta_411533

a) exceptions don't disprove a general rule; the Lions' current decision makers have used the draft well

not all teams who obviously should be in a rebuild mode do it intelligently; the Rams have floundered quite a bit on their way back

Agree but that was my point thrown at you. I contend that you are going for the exception. I can't think of one team that hasn't brought a veteran to camp. If I am missing one team that went completely veteran free, let me know what team that is. I don't mean that sarcastically I really can't think of a team that has, so if you can am curious.

[Oldfan]

--

SIP: Agree, but I don't believe that looking at rebuilding as having young good to great players at just about every position on the side of the ball that I referred to -- is some obscure out of left field take of rebuilding.

I think it is most certainly "obscure" to imply a whole team rebuild when half a team was rebuilt.

My point was he rebuilt the offense.

Good enough. Then, you didn't make your point clearly earlier. Now, we understand each other.

But yeah the whole idea of Shanny doesn't rebuilds he reloads -- well if that was true, how do you explain what happened on offense?

I don't understand why you think that the evidence of an offense improved via the draft contradicts my position that Mike doesn't rebuild, he reloads. The 2006 and 2008 drafts were very good, five or six starters were added to the offense. Is that evidence alone enough to satisfy you that it was part of a plan to rebuild the team through the draft?

How do you explain him hording picks in Denver?

The Eagles "hoard" picks by trading away aged vets like McNabb before they become worthless. Can you offer evidence that Mike did that routinely in Denver? Has he shown that tendency here? No, you can't and no he hasn't.

If he hoarded draft picks, then that below average draft record (link posted) looks worse.

Going young seemed to be Shanny's drill in Denver.

Broncos fans don't agree. The most common complaint about Mike in their forum is that he whiffed on too many garbage free agents. Since he was fined by the NFL for salary cap violations, I think it's safe to say there's some meat on that bone. You don't violate salary caps by spending on rookies.

Agree but that was my point thrown at you. I contend that you are going for the exception. I can't think of one team that hasn't brought a veteran to camp. If I am missing one team that went completely veteran free, let me know what team that is. I don't mean that sarcastically I really can't think of a team that has, so if you can am curious.

You have lost me. What point of mine are you referring to? Bringing what veteran to camp? Atogwe?

[earl]

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=97317

interesting that they say Shanny will not interview people he intends to draft. also scary that they suggest that he prefers to build through FA and seasoned vets vs. the draft.

[Shanahanigans]

Hello all...

I'm here to shed some light on a few comments.

Regarding the Goodmans, yes, they were very critical in the success of our drafts in that period as Ted Sundquist's portfolio seemed to have been scaled back over the years. I credit Sundquist with our draft failures in our poor drafting period as I credit the Goodmans with our later drafts. It all starts with scouting and the Goodmans were excellent at finding talent that made the short list. However, I absolutely credit Shanahan with those drafts.

I think Shanahan became wiser and has become less of a micro-manager over the years, realizing the value of surrounding himself with the right people. This is why Jeremy Bates was running our offense and why Kyle is running yours. But make no mistake that EVERYTHING will run through Shanahan. Jim Goodman was not a true GM, nor was Ted Sundquist.

The Goodmans WERE Shanahan's guys. They were promptly fired soon after McDaniels was hired even though they were a part of the group that hired him. Some speculate that Jeff committed some egregious offense and Jim followed. Some speculate it had something to do with the impending turnover that was soon to follow, starting with Cutler. Remember, that Cutler, Marshall, Scheffler & Hillis were all brought in under the Goodmans. Some speculate that something happened between Brian Xanders (our current GM) and Jeff Goodman. Who the heck knows? Nobody.

Also, with regards to our rebuild, I think the definition of the word is where it's debatable. Being the second youngest team in 2008 behind the Chiefs is something you need to consider. While nobody will ever admit to a complete rebuild, make no mistake that we were a completely new and young team compared to earlier in the decade.

Oh, last thing. Eddie Royal was drafted for his accomplishments as a return specialist. Shanahan was able to key in on his talent and he started in the first game as a WR without Brandon Marshall in 2008 and was our best route runner. This is one of the reasons why Shanahan is a great coach. He will maximize the talent on the field. It's also one of the reasons why he hits so well in the middle of the draft. It's because he's a good coach who doesn't make players fit to a system. He adapts the system to fit his players strengths. Josh McDaniels had him running crossing routes that nearly got the poor kid killed. Ask Deangelo Hall how Eddie Royal did... LOL! You have to see the highlights for that. D.Hall couldn't take it anymore!

[Conn]

Love the insight Shanahanigans, but those last two sentences couldn't be more opposed to what he's done here...

[Shanahanigans]

Love the insight Shanahanigans, but those last two sentences couldn't be more opposed to what he's done here...

Thanks for that, but how do you mean?

[Conn]

Thanks for that, but how do you mean?

Well, it would seem that Kyle has lots of influence, if what you say is true. Because the scheme was NOT fit to the players. McNabb is not a fit for the scheme Kyle runs at all, and that was a huge issue. They wouldn't adapt it to better suit his strengths.

And that's not even mentioning the switch to the 3-4, which didn't fit our personnel at all. But that's a looking-towards-the-future move that I'll let slide, because the only explanation is that he wanted to start the change as early as possible, knowing we weren't going to win it all anytime soon.