Walter Football latest mock has Blaine falling to #10

[MartinC]

Blaine is a decent prospect but not the type of QB that I imagine Shanny and company would want to run the Skins offense.

The Skins are either going to look at Jake Locker, or some other position. He's the only guy in this draft who has the skill set to run shanny's version of the WCO.

I disagree with your comment that only Locker has the skillset to run the Shanny WCO variant we run. Both Newton and Gabbert have the athletic ability and arm strength to run the scheme IMO.

Gabbert is the best of the 3 in the pocket and has been asked to make more NFL type reads and throws than the others and is still very athletic but a notch below Newton and Locker in that respect. He is probably the weakest of the 3 at throwing while moving but he is still more than good enough in that respect to fit in our scheme.

Locker is a great scheme fit in that he is almost as athletic as Newton (but without the great size Newton has) and is the best of the 3 at throwing while on the move. He is more inconsistent though than Gabbert when throwing in the pocket and has stretches were he loses accuracy.

Newton is the best athletic prospect with his great speed/size combination plus his agility and ability to make plays outside the pocket with both arm and feet. He is the most raw of the 3 working form the pocket and his accuracy is not as good as Gabbert either in that respect. He is also at this point a runner who can pass rather than a passer who can run (I see Locker as a passer who can run) - he had as many rushing attempts as pass attempts this year. Add in he is a one year starter and I see a classic boom or bust pick who may need a couple of years on the bench before he is ready.

I think both Gabbert and Newton are off the board before we pick anyway (Bills, Cards, 49ers all need QBs) and I think we will take Locker if he is there. If both Gabbert and Locker were there I would take Gabbert. I would not personally draft Newton top 10.

[#98QBKiller]

After watching some youtube videos of Gabbert and looking up his stats, I am seriously unimpressed with this guy. Where is the hype coming from? I haven't seen a clip of him yet that shows him taking a snap out of anything other than the shotgun and he still didn't look that good passing from the gun in all of the spread formations. On top of that, I've also seen some articles questioning his work ethic.

I really hope some other team is suckered into picking this guy. If there is no QB worth taking this year, I'm fine with standing pat and drafting someone like Paea or a good player of need that drops to us (Dareus, Green, etc.) you never know. No one thought Orakpo would drop to us either.

[ArmchairRedskin]

again I am not saying you NEVER take a NT in the 1st round - just that there is no NT rated high enough to even think about picking at 10 this year. I still say that taking just about any true NT in the top 10 is a reach - Raji is used as much more than a two gap plug - he had 6 sacks this year.

Is Raji a NT or not? That's the bottom line. Don't try and spin it.

I haven't anywhere advocated taking a NT at ten.Did you not read what I typed earlier? I just offered up some first round NT's taken after jflow was like "has there EVER been a NT taken in the first round?"

You guys are so defensive.

[MartinC]

After watching some youtube videos of Gabbert and looking up his stats, I am seriously unimpressed with this guy. Where is the hype coming from? I haven't seen a clip of him yet that shows him taking a snap out of anything other than the shotgun and he still didn't look that good passing from the gun in all of the spread formations. On top of that, I've also seen some articles questioning his work ethic.

I really hope some other team is suckered into picking this guy. If there is no QB worth taking this year, I'm fine with standing pat and drafting someone like Paea or a good player of need that drops to us (Dareus, Green, etc.) you never know. No one thought Orakpo would drop to us either.

I'm in the Gabbert camp but even saying that everything I have heard and read about him says he has a great work ethic and is very coachable. Forget the stats issue his numbers were much better in 2009 than 2010 because he had outside weapons in 2009 and nothing in 2010. They had to work much more underneath and featured the running game a lot more which deflated his numbers.

I did a write up on Gabbert in the draft thread (I just did one on Locker as well) see below. If you are worried about him only working out of the gun look at the clips of him at the QB camps doing 3,5 and 7 step drops and working on footwork in general. Also he ran a pro style offense in High School so I'm not worried about the shotgun issue.

Warning - long post!

DG suggested we do some in depth analysis of the various QBs. I started with Gabbert – here is my starter for ten below. Be interested in your thoughts and then we can maybe do something similar with Locker, Newton and maybe Mallet.

Blaine Gabbert

I used the following clips to evaluate Gabbert – I found some complete game footage from ’09 as I wanted to see him play with some outside threats. I think his mechanics are actually a lot cleaner this year especially in regards to his footwork.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9BB0...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7UUu...eature=related

One of the knocks on Gabbert is he has played almost solely out of shotgun. As such its difficult to evaluate his footwork on the 3, 5 and 7 step drops along with play action and roll outs which are as a staple of our offense. He was however playing in a Pro Style offense in High School so its not like he has never had to drop back so it should not be that steep a learning curve. I also found some footage of him at a QB camp and some footage of him just out of High School showing him doing footwork on drop back, hitch steps etc. Also some really good footage to review his mechanics and accuracy in this footage. Watch this and I think you can cross of any worries about his drop in a pro style offense.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/video/29636

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WWbC...eature=related

Watching this I see a guy with quick feet and excellent athletic ability. He takes a good long first step and maintains good balance on his drop backs and he changes direction really well. There is a drill at 26 seconds on the Nebraska QB camp which shows him simulating moving in the pocket after a 3 step drop – he shows excellent speed on his drop and then when he does set to throw I love the way he plants and steps into the throw. In some of the footage from the ’09 game he does not always keep that nice base and transfer his weight as well as this but in the games I have seen him play this year he has been more consistent.

At 1.04 in this video there is a nice side on shot of his throwing motion – he holds the ball nice and high but just below the ideal over the shoulder height – when he throws he has nice weight transfer and when he pulls the ball back it never gets below chest height which is also excellent. His release is very quick, he gets a good wrist snap and gets good shoulder rotation toward the target area. When throwing from the pocket he is very accurate and his excellent fundamentals are the reason.

Another great example of his excellent footwork and mechanics and also the velocity he gets on the ball at 1.36. Notice how quick the ball comes out when he pulls the trigger.

When he moves though although he looks very fluid and natural on the move – he is an excellent athlete – he looks less natural throwing. His motion looks more deliberate and he sometimes does not get his shoulder square to the target – see 2.13 on the video and notice how you can almost see him thinking about his set up and motion as he throws the ball.

The summary of his mechanics and potential as an NFL QB for me are at 2.41 on this clip. Watch him take a 7 step hitch drop and then throw a laser on what would have been a dig route – thats an NFL arm and an NFL throw.

Arm strength

Clearly has an NFL arm. See the throw he makes at 1.13 of the first half of the Nevada game footage. He takes a drop from a shotgun set up and then shows and excellent weight transfer and stride as he smokes a ball into a stick throw. Thats an NFL throw. As an example of pure arm strength watch the throw at 48 seconds on the second half of the Nevada game – he rolls out under pressure and then throws a pure arm pass on the run about 40 yards down field on a line for a completion. Finally see the rocket shot at 4.20 again in the second half when he puts it about 60 yards downfield without much effort. Impressive.

Accuracy

When he steps up and is working from within the pocket his accuracy is excellent. See a throw at 2.27 out of his own end zone on a deep out – great arm and accuracy to hit his man right at the sticks. There are a number of shots in the game though where he attempts fades – he does not show good touch and seems to struggle more with these bucket type throws. Flash backs there to a certain Jason Campbell. He shows though that he can beat man coverage and zone with his arm strength and he consistently puts the ball above the waist of his receivers so they can run after the catch. I have not seen him miss high badly on any of the throws on this tape – if he has missed it tends to be low and away.

Reading coverage

I have seen posters talk about him struggling to read coverage and only throwing simple quick throws, screens. I just don’t see that personally. In this game he makes short, intermediate stick throws and deep shots. He throws from the pocket and he throws on the move. One of the things I love about him versus some other prospects is he is asked to do more than read half the field short or deep. He does show a tendency to stay with his first read too long sometimes – see the throw at 12 seconds in the first half footage where he never comes off his first read and forces a throw in an area he had no business going against that coverage. However also see the throw at 30 seconds where he keeps his head up field, looks off the safety and then comes back to his left to hit his receiver on a crossing route. The throw at 1.13 shows his ability to see the holes in the zone and hit intermediate receivers at the second level with stick throws.

My summary is Gabbert is a QB who has excellent size, a good NFL arm and excellent throwing mechanics. He has shown an ability to make NFL throws and also has the athletic ability Shanny loves in his QBs to run roll outs off play action and to keep plays alive with his feet. I see Gabbert as a passer who can move rather than an athlete who can throw if that makes sense – I don’t think he is a guy who will run as soon as his first read is not there but a guy who will use his feet to extend plays while he keeps his eyes down field.

He does need to work on his throwing on the run and maybe his touch on fades and bucket passes but overall he is an excellent pro prospect.

Thoughts?

[ArmchairRedskin]

Raji is listed as an NT, but again, is used more often as a variation or a DE like Martin said. I know their depth chart says otherwise, but I'm pretty sure Pickett was their starting NT until injury forced him to move out to start at RDE. Raji's done a good job though.

Maybe we can coax PokerPacker in here to clear this up.

Casey Hampton was drafted 19th.

Again, I'm not saying never, but it doesn't happen very often, and it certainly isn't happening at #10 in this draft. There's no NT worth the #10 pick, not by a long stretch. DE/OLB yeah, but for NT look in the 2nd round.

That's not what you said at all. You questioned whether or not a NT was ever taken in the first. Now just live with the fact that there has and move on. Jeez.

[MartinC]

That's not what you said at all. You questioned whether or not a NT was ever taken in the first. Now just live with the fact that there has and move on. Jeez.

There are a couple of different conversations getting mixed up here. This all started when someone earlier in the thread said we should take a NT this year in the first round not a QB. I shot back at him saying there was no NT worth a top 10 or even a first round grade this year. Jflow78 supported that view and went further saying he did not think a true NT had ever been taken in the first round.

He was wrong on the latter point as you have shown - though its still a rare NT who gets taken in the first. But the main point being made was that there is not a NT worth a top 10 pick in this years draft so saying dont take a QB pick a NT does not fly.

By the way to your question on Raji - he lines up at NT more than any other position on running downs but on passing downs he is often lined up in a 3 or 5 technique. Thats how he got 6 sacks this year.

[ADF]

I've only seen Gabbert play one game but I liked what I saw. He throws the ball really well. At the same time, I'm a long way from being convinced that he's the guy for us at 10. I wish I had watched more of his games over the past couple year.

[flock53]

I dont think at #10 you can afford to let him learn ala Rodgers. The DEFENSE needs players and will help an offense when better and vise versa.

[Thinking Skins]

I'm in the Gabbert camp but even saying that everything I have heard and read about him says he has a great work ethic and is very coachable. Forget the stats issue his numbers were much better in 2009 than 2010 because he had outside weapons in 2009 and nothing in 2010. They had to work much more underneath and featured the running game a lot more which deflated his numbers.

This is the best part of your post in my opinion. I'm very interested in the intelligence of a QB, their work ethic and their coachability. I don't know these measurements for the other QBs, but I think that a coachable QB with a hard work ethic can improve on his flaws, particularly the non-physical ones.

---------- Post added January-16th-2011 at 01:44 PM ----------

I dont think at #10 you can afford to let him learn ala Rodgers. The DEFENSE needs players and will help an offense when better and vise versa.

Why not? I'd think that the more you invest in a QB, the more willing you should be to make it a long term investment instead of a throw them into the fire type thing. Why should we be willing to ruin a QB's confidence ala Ramsey? What for?

[Dukes and Skins]

This is the best part of your post in my opinion. I'm very interested in the intelligence of a QB, their work ethic and their coachability. I don't know these measurements for the other QBs, but I think that a coachable QB with a hard work ethic can improve on his flaws, particularly the non-physical ones.

Oh if we're talking about Gabbert your talking about one of the most fiesty QB's in the draft. He's someone you can't keep off the field even with an injury he's going to always fight and do everything even when he's not 100% also from everything I've read he's someone who will learn and study and do it all to be a Franchise QB and that's really where I made my mind up on him. I saw the big arm the accuracy that was good and the mobility to make plays but that stuff about him being a high work ethic guy was my favorite

[flock53]

This is the best part of your post in my opinion. I'm very interested in the intelligence of a QB, their work ethic and their coachability. I don't know these measurements for the other QBs, but I think that a coachable QB with a hard work ethic can improve on his flaws, particularly the non-physical ones.

---------- Post added January-16th-2011 at 01:44 PM ----------

Why not? I'd think that the more you invest in a QB, the more willing you should be to make it a long term investment instead of a throw them into the fire type thing. Why should we be willing to ruin a QB's confidence ala Ramsey? What for?

No, Im cool w/ grooming a QB. Just at #10, he is expected to step right in and play. If your gonna groom someone, get that guy in 4th round or later (Ricki Stanzi). AR sat for like 3 years, you cant do that w/ a #10. The defense is bottom of the barrel and needs scheme guys.

Stanzi had a better year then Gabbert IMO --Stanzi:3000yds, 25tds-6ints and 64%. Gabbert:3200yds, 16tds-9ints and 63%

[Dukes and Skins]

No, Im cool w/ grooming a QB. Just at #10, he is expected to step right in and play. If your gonna groom someone, get that guy in 4th round or later (Ricki Stanzi). AR sat for like 3 years, you cant do that w/ a #10. The defense is bottom of the barrel and needs scheme guys.

Cutler was draft #11 and sat, it can be done and if its Gabbert or Locker then personally you should let them sit and Rodgers is an exception to the rule he had a HOF QB playing in front of him they were lucky to get him and have that position to let him sit and develop

[TheGoodBits]

Cutler was draft #11 and sat, it can be done and if its Gabbert or Locker then personally you should let them sit and Rodgers is an exception to the rule he had a HOF QB playing in front of him they were lucky to get him and have that position to let him sit and develop

I think a year or at least a half year behind Grossman would be perfect for Locker or Gabbert.

[Thinking Skins]

No, Im cool w/ grooming a QB. Just at #10, he is expected to step right in and play. If your gonna groom someone, get that guy in 4th round or later (Ricki Stanzi). AR sat for like 3 years, you cant do that w/ a #10. The defense is bottom of the barrel and needs scheme guys.

True, and really no matter who we sign, if its a good pick, its a good pick. But that being said (and I keep going back to this), suppose that in 2004 we had drafted Ben Rothlesburger instead of Sean Taylor? I know the safety pick was the one that gave us the most immediate reward, but long term, I think the sexier pick is Big Ben - even if Sean Taylor had become an Ed Reed or a Troy. I think the draft's gotta be about getting quality players. Then once you get them, it becomes about finding out the best way to utilize these players. Sometimes they're ready to play immediately. Sometimes they need some time.

Right now, I have no problem with going into next season with Rex as the starter behind a crappy OL, with Gabbert/Locker/Mallet/Cam backing him up - or even at third, if we choose to go that route.

[flock53]

Cutler was draft #11 and sat, it can be done and if its Gabbert or Locker then personally you should let them sit and Rodgers is an exception to the rule he had a HOF QB playing in front of him they were lucky to get him and have that position to let him sit and develop

Gabbert=Chase Daniels w/ "prototypical" size and arm strength. College system QBs usually bust: Ware, Klingler, Akili Smith, Alex Smith

---------- Post added January-16th-2011 at 03:17 PM ----------

I think a year or at least a half year behind Grossman would be perfect for Locker or Gabbert.

I would rather fill some holes on DEF and OL, maybe a Stanzi in the 4th. Would rather break the bank if LUCK repeats this last year NEXT year

---------- Post added January-16th-2011 at 03:24 PM ----------

True, and really no matter who we sign, if its a good pick, its a good pick. But that being said (and I keep going back to this), suppose that in 2004 we had drafted Ben Rothlesburger instead of Sean Taylor? I know the safety pick was the one that gave us the most immediate reward, but long term, I think the sexier pick is Big Ben - even if Sean Taylor had become an Ed Reed or a Troy. I think the draft's gotta be about getting quality players. Then once you get them, it becomes about finding out the best way to utilize these players. Sometimes they're ready to play immediately. Sometimes they need some time.

Right now, I have no problem with going into next season with Rex as the starter behind a crappy OL, with Gabbert/Locker/Mallet/Cam backing him up - or even at third, if we choose to go that route.

W/ Ben, even though he came from the MAC, it still was a "pro" style offense. Gabbert is coming from a spread (Cam too) so the passing #s should be there. Gabbert had 3200 yds but only 16 tds w/ 9 ints........NO THANKS

[Thinking Skins]

Gabbert=Chase Daniels w/ "prototypical" size and arm strength. College system QBs usually bust: Ware, Klingler, Akili Smith, Alex Smith

There is a huge difference between the NFL outcomes of Ware and Alex Smith. Alex Smith is a guy who is still in the NFL and has a chance to have a successful NFL career still. Ware was a pure bust in every sense of the word. When Smith had Norv Turner as his OC, he put up decent numbers for a young QB and showed to be developing nicely. If Norv didn't go to become head coach in SD, we may be talking entirely differently of Smith (I think Martz was the worst thing ever to happen to that kid). And with that being said, he still may be a productive NFL QB in a new system. I think its a bit premature to simply dismiss anyone based on these guys.

[flock53]

There is a huge difference between the NFL outcomes of Ware and Alex Smith. Alex Smith is a guy who is still in the NFL and has a chance to have a successful NFL career still. Ware was a pure bust in every sense of the word. When Smith had Norv Turner as his OC, he put up decent numbers for a young QB and showed to be developing nicely. If Norv didn't go to become head coach in SD, we may be talking entirely differently of Smith (I think Martz was the worst thing ever to happen to that kid). And with that being said, he still may be a productive NFL QB in a new system. I think its a bit premature to simply dismiss anyone based on these guys.

David Carr also....but he went to an expansion team and had no line and got sacked a record amount. You cant dismiss history. Why waste a year reteaching him to take a snap under center and 3-5-7 step drops. With a spread, alot is predetermined w/ one read. I dont like it, its a gamble at #10 and with a horrible defense that needs players. If they take a QB at 10, Im totally convinced this owner/FO has absolutely NO CLUE. The NFL is catching up w/ Martz and they didnt have a #1 wr. Put him back there w/ Crabtree and Davis and its different.

[Hitman21ST]

I would rather fill some holes on DEF and OL, maybe a Stanzi in the 4th. Would rather break the bank if LUCK repeats this last year NEXT year

You seriously want to pull a Ditka and trade the whole draft (because that's just about what it would take to trade up to 1) for Luck? That didn't work out too well for Ditka with Ricky Williams, now, did it?

If Shanny thinks Gabbert or Locker will do well in their system, then I'm on that train. If they would rather pick Defense or OL, I'm on that train.

---------- Post added January-16th-2011 at 02:44 PM ----------

David Carr also....but he went to an expansion team and had no line and got sacked a record amount. You cant dismiss history. Why waste a year reteaching him to take a snap under center and 3-5-7 step drops. With a spread, alot is predetermined w/ one read. I dont like it, its a gamble at #10 and with a horrible defense that needs players. If they take a QB at 10, Im totally convinced this owner/FO has absolutely NO CLUE.

Didn't Sam Bradford come out of a spread offense? One of the hits on him was that he had the coaches make the reads for him, and look how he turned out.

[Dukes and Skins]

David Carr also....but he went to an expansion team and had no line and got sacked a record amount. You cant dismiss history. Why waste a year reteaching him to take a snap under center and 3-5-7 step drops. With a spread, alot is predetermined w/ one read. I dont like it, its a gamble at #10 and with a horrible defense that needs players. If they take a QB at 10, Im totally convinced this owner/FO has absolutely NO CLUE.

Do you think St.Louis felt the same way taking Sam Bradford last year who played in a spread and didn't play a lot under center? This whole spread offense argument is weak and no offense to you but look at the QB's in college if you have the tools to play QB you can be a QB in the NFL regardless of your scheme. I'm not worried about Gabbert at #10 because I see him being someone who will be a franchise QB because he's got all the tools and the mental makeup to be a guy we'd want.

[Kostaskins]

There is a video on espn.com if you go to the nfl draft site and click on it. Todd mcshay has some good comments on gabbert. Intertesting really

[flock53]

Is Blaine Gabbert a Bradford???????? C'mon now. Bradford was talked about being #1 for 2 years. 3500 yrds and 18/15 w a running game/threat. He also played in the worst division this year, so crowning him anything is premature. If we played in that division, we win it and are in playoffs.

[Dukes and Skins]

Is Blaine Gabbert a Bradford???????? C'mon now. Bradford was talked about being #1 for 2 years. 3500 yrds and 18/15 w a running game/threat. He also played in the worst division this year, so crowning him anything is premature. If we played in that division, we win it and are in playoffs.

I'm not calling him Bradford but you make the case of the Spread offense but yet Bradford was able to transition. The point I'm making here is that good QB's can make it to the NFL and Gabbert is one of them. Yes he doesn't run a pro style but half of college football doesn't either but yet QB's are still drafted.

[Thinking Skins]

David Carr also....but he went to an expansion team and had no line and got sacked a record amount. You cant dismiss history. Why waste a year reteaching him to take a snap under center and 3-5-7 step drops. With a spread, alot is predetermined w/ one read. I dont like it, its a gamble at #10 and with a horrible defense that needs players. If they take a QB at 10, Im totally convinced this owner/FO has absolutely NO CLUE. The NFL is catching up w/ Martz and they didnt have a #1 wr. Put him back there w/ Crabtree and Davis and its different.

If the QB is worth it, then he's worth it. Wasn't Bradford in a spread offense? What about Drew Brees? Kevin Kolb?

My feeling is that just like any other athlete, when you sign them to your team, they've got to learn your system and your way of doing things. A smart player who works hard can adapt to the new environment. Thats why I value intelligence and hard work. I won't say who will be a bust vs an all star, but I think dismissing them because of their college system is a bit pre-emptive.

[flock53]

Do you think St.Louis felt the same way taking Sam Bradford last year who played in a spread and didn't play a lot under center? This whole spread offense argument is weak and no offense to you but look at the QB's in college if you have the tools to play QB you can be a QB in the NFL regardless of your scheme. I'm not worried about Gabbert at #10 because I see him being someone who will be a franchise QB because he's got all the tools and the mental makeup to be a guy we'd want.

The arguement isnt weak. All those I mentioned had the "tools". Your drinking the Kool-Aid by the gallon. What about under 20 tds and 9 ints is "franchise" material??

[Thinking Skins]

The arguement isnt weak. All those I mentioned had the "tools". Your drinking the Kool-Aid by the gallon. What about under 20 tds and 9 ints is "franchise" material??

The fact that those are very imperssive ROOKIE NUMBERS.