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The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc


BRAVEONAWARPATH

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 https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wizards/the-man-of-the-house-john-walls-wizards-leadership-is-now-on-point/2015/10/10/5fdac2ec-6eb1-11e5-aa5b-f78a98956699_story.html?postshare=4171444494351395

 

The man of the house: John Wall’s Wizards leadership is now on point

 

Wall doesn’t deny the obvious. When the time comes, he will make his recruiting pitch to the Oklahoma City Thunder superstar and Montrose Christian product. He understands that adding one of the top five players in the game would catapult Washington to an annual championship contender during the prime of his career.

 

But Wall believes he is a superstar, too. And he is confident that with him as the leader of the deepest roster assembled since he arrived baby-faced in the District, he can guide the Wizards deeper into the spring than they’ve been in decades.

 

“We’re not trying to throw anything away,” he said. “I’m not trying to waste my sixth year on nothing. I’m trying to get to where I want to be. Everybody thinks we can’t win if we don’t have Kevin. Well, you can win because you have John Wall.”

 

Edited by BRAVEONAWARPATH
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He worked on post-ups and floaters during the summer, and he plans to utilize them more often this season. He also wants to improve his shot selection and turnover rate. To incentivize the cause, Wall will pay assistant coach Howard Eisley $100 for every game he commits more than two turnovers. Worst-case scenario, that’s a $8,200 loss.

 

I liked this part

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I think the media needs to cool it with the Durant angle.

One, we have a season to get ready for and Durant still plays for OKC and;

Two, we need to be careful of tampering.

They need to talk about the current players on the current roster and wait until June to talk about Durant.

Edited by pjfootballer
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Yeah I'm actually tired of hearing about Durant coming here. It's a distraction. I want to focus on this team and this season. We've got a pretty good team that's made the second round of the playoffs two years in a row. The Nats showed us to take nothing for granted. This is DC. For all we know, come November of 2016, not only will KD not be here, but Wall will end up getting hurt and needing microfracture surgery and '15/'16 is the last season for us to enjoy watching him in his prime.

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I wouldn't be concerned. I watched the first two games and he was facilitating, which is the role he should be playing with this roster. He was scoring without problems when the situation was right.

Wall is probably "only" going to score about 18 PPG this year. But there is a very real chance he'll average 10 or 11 APG. And I think his efficiency will be sky-high. His typical game is probably going to go like this: four or more assists and low point totals in the first quarter. Opportunistic scoring here and there--fast breaks, when the defense breaks down and gives him lanes or open threes, or when they over-commit to the roll man on PnRs, etc. Then there will be one dominant stretch where he has to take over the scoring load after the team's offense bogs down a little bit, then finish up the night with 11 or 12 assists.

We're out of the woods on Wall's career. He's mastered NBA pointguarding. We're never going to have to really worry about him again so long as he's healthy.

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I agree with Steve, Wall is what he is and there is no need to worry. Not a primary scorer but a fantastic point guard on both sides of the court. Now we just need to pair him with a true primary scoring option star player. Wall is fantastic.

I'm still not sold on Beal as a star player. Looks like a good scorer within an offense to me.

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I get weary when a PG starts to average 20 or more. Efficiency is bigger concern with Wall and he appears to have a good grip on the areas in which he needs to improve. Thats good enough for me.

 

 

teams with pg's who average 20 or more, typically don't go as far in the postseason.

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I'm still not sold on Beal as a star player. Looks like a good scorer within an offense to me.

Yeah, I'm not sure what to truly expect from Beal this season. I think his scoring total is going to blow up and he'll average like 23 PPG in this high-possession offense and be an All Star. But Beal has had trouble maintaining intensity and health for a whole season, which is necessary to be an All Star. If he plays this season like he played in the playoffs, then he is a star and a shoe in to make the AS game. But that's what we were thinking after the 2014 postseason too.

One thing I do know is he's becoming increasingly vital to the success of the offense. This year we actually have a credible SG behind him in case he misses time. But it still wrecks our spacing when he's out, and he's gradually assuming the role of the first option scorer. It's going to get to the point where losing him will be as damaging as losing Wall.

And another thing I know, Beal needs to make the next step to becoming a star for this team to make the next step too. Wall is already giving us like 10 WARs. He and Gortat each performed at peak levels last season, so we're unlikely to scrape out any more wins off their backs, unless Wall goes HAM and has an MVP season. What we need is for Beal to make the jump to being an 8 WAR player or so. That would give us a bump of about five wins, give us what we need to win 50+ games and be a high seed like we should.

Also, losing Gortat does not bear thinking about. He's like a 7 or 8 win share center, and we don't really have a contingency plan to replace what he does for the team. Nene is a very different player, he doesn't have reliable health, and he can only play 25 MPG or so.

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There is no chance Beal gets 23 per. Dude has better handles, a silky 3pt shot, and a headband paul left in his locker on the way out the building in May. Thats something one can make a career off of. But hes inconsistent, frequently injured ( not sure if the current weightloss will help this problem), and has a history of taking bad shots. I'd say this team needs Otto to play up to his potential ( playoff otto) in order for this team to get to the next level. There are a ton of top tier players at the 2/3 in the East that Otto has been tasked to guard: Lebron, George, DeRozan, Korver, Melo, and Butler. Those guys can derail our season. Regardless, hes getting the max. The market for 2's in this league is extremely thin.

Edited by Skin'emAlive
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He's going to be the first option scorer in an offense that should hopefully average 97 to 98 possessions a game. He should get to 20 PPG, and I think 23 is doable if he's efficient. Or perhaps more precisely stated, 23 Points Per 36 minutes would be good. Steph Curry was the first option for Golden State, who played at the pace we want to get to, and averaged about 24 per game and 26 per 36. Klay Thompson was the second option and averaged about 22 per game and a little over 24 per 36. We're not going to convert as many of our possessions as them so our scoring won't be as high. But our opportunities should hopefully be.

I look for Beal to put up about 23 per 36 and have an ORtg of 110 or so. I think that's realistic and would represent him playing to his potential this season. It would also justify him as a max contract IMO.

For Otto, I'm expecting a decent scoring rate of about 14 or 15 per 36 and a high ORtg. Something like 116 to 118 isn't out of the question, unless he has to do a lot of his own shot creation for some reason.

For Gortat, I'm thinking 16-17 per 36 is realistic and that he can get to 120 for his ORtg. He's come close to that when he was playing with Nash in Phoenix. This should hopefully be the easiest year he's ever had scoring the ball. He's in his prime, playing with a great PG, and should have a lot more space than last year, when he was already very good and put up an ORtg of 114. He's knocking on the door of top notch efficiency.

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I think per 36 only matters for guys that are short on minutes.  PPG is a far better indicator for your starting unit IMO.  They are counted on to deliver wins, and wins take place within the confines of a single game.

Starting minutes in our system could be just 32-33 this year. The fast pace means our starters will have to play less. Should be a good thing now that we are 10-12 deep.

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