John Clayton's QB rankings

[JLMRacing]

What do you think?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview10/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=5489176

THE ELITE

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

Analysis: At 34, Manning doesn't show any signs of slowing. He sets the agenda for modern NFL quarterbacks with the no-huddle and three-receiver offenses and generates 12-win seasons as easily as he completes passes. Under Manning, the Colts have won 12 or more games for seven consecutive seasons.

Arrow is pointing: Up

2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Analysis: I resisted the urge to put Drew Brees ahead of him, but Brady, with three Super Bowl rings, is still the master. The knee injury slowed him a little in 2009 (4,398 yards, 28 TD passes), but I expect his numbers to be much better this season.

Arrow is pointing: Flat

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Analysis: The combination of Brees and Sean Payton is scary. Brees is a master at finding the open receiver, and Payton is one of the best playcallers in the business.

Arrow is pointing: Up

4. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Analysis: With two Super Bowl rings, Roethlisberger ranks with the elite of the elite quarterbacks in the league. His suspension is a wakeup call, but as a quarterback, he's almost impossible to stop when he rolls out of the pocket and when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter.

Arrow is pointing: Flat

5. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings

Analysis: It's amazing to think Favre had his best season at age 40. Even though he says this is his final year, Favre loves the game and can still play it at a high level.

Arrow is pointing: Slightly down

6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Analysis: This could be the season Rodgers passes Favre as the best quarterback in the NFC North. His arm is strong and he finally learned how to win games in the fourth quarter. Rodgers has had a scintillating preseason. (By the way, NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert and ESPN national columnist Gene Wojciechowski debate the merits of Rodgers and Favre here.)

Arrow is pointing: Up

7. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Analysis: He's the biggest reason the Chargers stay ahead of the other AFC West teams. A great leader, Rivers is fearless throwing to tight end Antonio Gates and other pass-catchers even when they appear to be covered.

Arrow is pointing: Up

8. Tony Romo sits to pee, Dallas Cowboys

Analysis: Now that Romo sits to pee has won a playoff game, watch out. The only thing that could prevent him and the Cowboys from playing host to a Super Bowl an aging offensive line faltering.

Arrow is pointing: Up

9. Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins

Analysis: Mike Shanahan offers McNabb play-action options he didn't have with the Eagles' pass-heavy offense. With McNabb at the helm, the Redskins could be one of the surprise teams in the NFC.

Arrow is pointing: Spinning as he adjusts to a new offense

10. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Analysis: The additions of Terrell Owens, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley could allow Palmer to relive his 4,000-yard days. Marvin Lewis prefers running the ball, but Palmer would love for the Bengals' offense to open up.

Arrow is pointing: Up

11. Eli Manning, New York Giants

Analysis: Despite recording his first 4,000-yard passing season in 2009 and already owning a Super Bowl ring, Manning doesn't get the respect he is due. He lacks the fiery leadership of his brother, but he continues to improve each season.

Arrow is pointing: Flat

12. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Analysis: With the Ravens' problems in their secondary, Flacco may be asked to throw more, which is fine by him. Anquan Boldin will help him working from the slot and Donte' Stallworth could help to stretch the field on occasion when he returns from injury.

Arrow is pointing: Up

13. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Analysis: Like Flacco, Ryan should have a breakthrough season. Most top quarterbacks come into their own in their third season, and Ryan has studied every top quarterback trying to improve his game.

Arrow is pointing: Up

14. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Analysis: Schaub finally moved into the elite group by staying healthy and throwing for a league-high 4,770 yards in 2009. (By the way, that was 270 yards more than Peyton Manning had last season.) The next step for Schaub and the Texans? Win in the AFC South and make the playoffs for the first time.

CHAD PENNINGTON DIVISION

15. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

Analysis: Cutler was an elite quarterback in 2008 when he played for the Broncos, but 26 interceptions for Chicago in 2009 moved him out of my top group. With Mike Martz calling the plays, Cutler should regain his 4,000-yard form and re-emerge as the elite quarterback the Bears thought they acquired in a trade with Denver.

Chance of being elite: 95 percent

16. Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos

Analysis: There is a huge drop-off after Cutler, but Orton is finally getting his due. Despite using a first-round choice on Tim Tebow, Denver realized Orton's importance by giving him a one-year contract extension last month. People seem to forget Orton threw for 3,802 yards last season.

Chance of being elite: 10 percent

17. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

Analysis:A three-time Pro Bowl selection, Hasselbeck lost his elite status because of two seasons getting rocked behind bad offensive lines. Hasselbeck is the one hope Pete Carroll has for challenging for the NFC West title.

Chance of being elite: 25 percent

18. Vince Young, Tennessee Titans

Analysis: He's a 66 percent winner as a starter even though he struggles to complete 60 percent of his passes. Young isn't a great thrower, but he finds ways to win.

Chance of being elite: 10 percent

19. Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders

Analysis: In Washington, Campbell was the handpicked franchise quarterback of Joe Gibbs, but he was always outperformed by Eli Manning, Tony Romo sits to pee and Donovan McNabb in the NFC East. His fresh start in Oakland has allowed him to grow as a leader of a younger group of offensive players. He also gives the Raiders a quarterback who can complete better than 60 percent of his passes.

Chance of being elite: 10 percent

20. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

Analysis: This might be his final season as the Jags' starter, but don't underestimate him. He is a good leader and still has the ability to complete 60 percent of his passes.

Chance of being elite: 5 percent

21. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers

Analysis: It's hard to believe this is Smith's sixth season. The pressure is on him to get the 49ers to the playoffs. He has not lived up to his No. 1 billing in the draft, obviously, but the surrounding cast is good enough to make a playoff run. One of the faults I noticed when I saw him in the preseason is that he doesn't always hit receivers in stride.

Chance of being elite: 0 percent

22. Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs

Analysis: Cassel showed in New England that he can be a playoff-caliber quarterback if he's surrounded with pass-catchers with yards-after-the-catch ability. He lacks the downfield arm to stretch a defense, but if the Chiefs get him more playmakers, Cassel could thrive.

HIT-OR-MISS DIVISION

23. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

Analysis: The additions of Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes at wide receiver and LaDainian Tomlinson catching passes out of the backfield should allow Sanchez to be a 60 percent thrower. Another ally will be the motion packages offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer can install now that Sanchez has a year of experience in the offense.

Chance of being elite: 50 percent

24. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles

Analysis: Kolb is the perfect quarterback for Andy Reid's West Coast offense, which is why the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to the Redskins. Kolb is a rhythm passer out of three- and five-step drops, and he should have a big statistical year.

Chance of being elite: 50 percent

25. Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins

Analysis: Henne has a strong arm and a flair for fourth-quarter comebacks, giving him a chance to be a top-level quarterback. It did seem as though defenses figured him out in the second half of the season, but Henne is smart enough to adjust. Plus, he now has Brandon Marshall as his main target.

Chance of being elite: 45 percent

26. Byron Leftwich, Pittsburgh Steelers

Analysis: Leftwich lacks mobility and tends to stay in the pocket too long, but his strong arm and good leadership could bail out the Steelers filling in for Roethlisberger in September. If Leftwich can't generate a 2-2 start, though, he might fall into a permanent backup role. Leftwich should withstand a challenge from Dennis Dixon, who flubbed his chance to claim the job with a poor preseason performance against Denver.

Chance of being elite: 0 percent

27. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Analysis: Stafford survived a painful rookie season in which he was pounded by defenses (24 sacks, 20 interceptions), but he showed flashes of greatness. Tight end Tony Scheffler and wide receiver Nate Burleson will pull coverage away from go-to receiver Calvin Johnson and give the Lions' offense -- and Stafford -- a chance.

Chance of being elite: 55 percent

28. Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson, Arizona Cardinals

Analysis: For Anderson, this is a chance to rebuild his career after tough seasons in Cleveland in 2008 and 2009. He's not very accurate, never completing more than 60 percent of his passes in a season in the NFL. For Leinart, this is the end of the line as a Cardinal after this season if he doesn't regain a starting job he had no business losing.

Chances of being elite: 0 percent

29. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Analysis: Freeman is a big, athletic quarterback who is being paired with a promising, young receiving corps. The small fracture on the tip of his right thumb is a slight setback, but Freeman is the perfect quarterback for the Bucs to build around.

Chance of being elite: 35 percent

30. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams

Analysis: What amazes Rams management about Bradford is his accuracy and how calm he seems in the pocket. Unfortunately, his rookie season will be tough because St. Louis lacks big-play receivers and the offensive line is struggling.

Chance of being elite: 85 percent

31. Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills

Analysis: Call it deja Bills. When Edwards entered the league in 2007, the Bills were a bottled-up offense desperately looking for receivers who could pull coverage away from Lee Evans. Edwards' lone target remains Evans, but the offensive line is now much worse.

Chance of being elite: 0 percent

32. Matt Moore, Carolina Panthers

Analysis: He has a 6-2 record as starter, but a slow start could speed the Jimmy Clausen era in Carolina.

Chance of being elite: 5 percent

33. Jake Delhomme, Cleveland Browns

Analysis: Interceptions in the playoff loss to Arizona in 2008 led to a downward spiral for a quarterback who won a lot of games for John Fox and the Panthers. At 35, Delhomme has no chance of being a starter anywhere else if he doesn't cut it in Cleveland.

[MattFancy]

Can't argue with anything there. Maybe Roethlisberger is a little high, but he does have 2 Super Bowls, so can't do too much complaining there. I'd probably have Schaub a little higher, but I can understand having him a little lower since last year was the first time he's made it through a full season.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

8. Tony Romo sits to pee, Dallas Cowboys

Analysis: Now that Romo sits to pee has won a playoff game, watch out. The only thing that could prevent him and the Cowboys from playing host to a Super Bowl an aging offensive line faltering.

Arrow is pointing: Up

The ONLY thing? lol ...Um, no.

11. Eli Manning, New York Giants

Analysis: Despite recording his first 4,000-yard passing season in 2009 and already owning a Super Bowl ring, Manning doesn't get the respect he is due. He lacks the fiery leadership of his brother, but he continues to improve each season.

Arrow is pointing: Flat

This analysis is FULL of contradictions and irony lol...He first lists Manning's accomplishments and claims he doesn't get enough respect, especially for a QB who won a SB and was MVP...and then lists him 3 spots BELOW Romo sits to pee, a guy who has only won a single wildcard game...talk about disrespect lol ...he then says Manning "continues to improve each season", yet says his arrow is pointing "flat". Shouldn't it be pointing "Up" if he improves each season?

17. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

Analysis:A three-time Pro Bowl selection, Hasselbeck lost his elite status because of two seasons getting rocked behind bad offensive lines. Hasselbeck is the one hope Pete Carroll has for challenging for the NFC West title.

Chance of being elite: 25 percent

If Hasselbeck hasn't become "elite" by now, he never will. That should be "0 percent".

33. Jake Delhomme, Cleveland Browns

Analysis: Interceptions in the playoff loss to Arizona in 2008 led to a downward spiral for a quarterback who won a lot of games for John Fox and the Panthers. At 35, Delhomme has no chance of being a starter anywhere else if he doesn't cut it in Cleveland.

Hasselbeck is also 35...maybe Clayton forgot that? lol

[2cents]

Agreed. Clayton is one of the fairest, most objective guys out there. Even if you don't always agree, at least he tells you why he feels a certain way and is hard to argue with. Besides..he like us, so how could he be wrong..

[illone]

You mean Kevin Kolb isn't ahead of McNabb?

:whoknows:

Finally a list that makes a little bit of sense.

[AKM311]

I think the article is fair. Don't agree with it all, but fair.

The only thing I don't get is....Why should we watch out because Tony Romo sits to pee won 1 playoff game?

What does that even mean?

[War Paint]

Big Ben is too high. I think Philip Rivers should be where Big Ben is on the list.

[CrypticVillain]

I think the article is fair. Don't agree with it all, but fair.

The only thing I don't get is....Why should we watch out because Tony Romo sits to pee won 1 playoff game?

What does that even mean?

I guess he is saying that the monkey is off his back. What he fails to realize is until Romo sits to pee wins a Superbowl, the monkey will have his nails deep on Tony's back.

As far as the top three goes, it should be 1a. 1b. and 1c. Those three are miles ahead everybody else.

Big Ben should be behind Rivers, but when I think about the lack of o-line the Steelers have and the rate that he has been playing at, I can't complain much about it.

[ADF]

Not horrible, but I'd be tempted to put Drew Brees at #1. I'm sure that many would disagree with me. I also think Favre is a little too high on the list. Historically, he'll go down as a legend but the other guys at the top are more consistent than he is now.

[tshile]

nothing like giving out new rankings for players you haven't seen play in over 6 months, going off of nothing but what they did last year yet claming that it's an inidication of what they'll do this year.

a few injuries, certain coaching changes, some luck (good or bad), and hardcore (or lack of) offseason workouts could completely invert this list.

god i can't wait till the preseason is over.

[CG]

I think its a pretty fair ranking of Donovan. I'd rearrange some of the guys at the top, namely putting Rodgers and Rivers above Roethlisberger, but its a pretty good list.

[ucfSKINS]

As much as I actually value Clayton's articles, I couldn't care less about this one.

Predictions, rankings, etc don't mean as much as they did a few weeks ago because the regular season is almost upon us. So we aren't as hungry for filler news, we've had a taste of the good stuff and can't wait til the 12th when all the talking stops and the real playing begins

[SWFLSkins]

So in a league of 32, 14 teams have elite QB's? I only think there are six elite QB's right now, my choices don't matter, but Brees, Peyton, Brady, Rivers(overcomes NOrv syndrome), Ben(rings matter) and Favre(don't know how he keeps doing it) are mine. And yes Rodgers could be there instead of Ben, but Rings do add value.

[Backpack3r]

Big Ben is too high. I think Philip Rivers should be where Big Ben is on the list.

No way, Ben knows how to win games and make big throws and lead game winning drives

[Wingman44]

I thought this was a pretty fair assessment, although i would put Matt Schaub in the top10.

[ADF]

Also, I'd rank Schaub higher than Flacco and Ryan.

[Buck812]

You mean Kevin Kolb isn't ahead of McNabb?

:whoknows:

Finally a list that makes a little bit of sense.

The problem with that analogy is that he is ahead of him on the Eagles list. While I dont like Andy Reid's pass first offense, I do think he knows a few more things about QBs than John Clayton and the Eagles had their pick of the two.... Just saying.

[Buck812]

As much as I actually value Clayton's articles, I couldn't care less about this one.

Predictions, rankings, etc don't mean as much as they did a few weeks ago because the regular season is almost upon us. So we aren't as hungry for filler news, we've had a taste of the good stuff and can't wait til the 12th when all the talking stops and the real playing begins

At this point, I pretty much feel the same say. Lets gett'em on the field and see what we got.

:dallasuck

[D-Day]

Am I reading this list correctly?

The top 15 are now "Elite", I thought that would make some of them average.

[Blackwolf]

The problem with that analogy is that he is ahead of him on the Eagles list. While I dont like Andy Reid's pass first offense, I do think he knows a few more things about QBs than John Clayton and the Eagles had their pick of the two.... Just saying.

When the Eagles make a personnel move, they're looking at the durations of the contracts (or possibly careers) of the players involved. When John Clayton is ranking quarterbacks, it's based on how he believes they'll perform this year. So it would be possible for Andy Reid to want to start getting the QB of the Future on the field now, while McNabb is still better, because he thinks Kolb has made as much progress as he can from the bench.