techboy Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 And you shouldn't confuse sour grapes with wine. There is risk inherant with all investment. No sour grapes here. I'm truly glad you did well. What you were doing, however, was not investing. It was gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 And you shouldn't confuse sour grapes with wine. There is risk inherant with all investment. For short term investments commodities beat the pants off of stocks.I think you guys have a double standard.... At least with gold the market is flat. Meaning the stock market is entirely sloped against the small investor in favor of the big guys. I would call stocks a much more risky investment than commodities, and you know what, mid and recent term history would agree with me. In the stock market for example instability can be used to generate profits to the fat cats and transfer liablity onto the small investor. If a small investor is doing a ton of buying and selling in companies they don't understand and trying to time the market, they are going to eat it. But the Proctor and Gamble stock I bought in 1988 at $5.20 a share is now worth over $60 dollars a share (and P&G hasn't done well lately). Plus I have reinvested substantial dividends the whole time. The Exxon stock I own has done much, much better. Pepsi, Johnson and Johnson, etc. Each company has a different record, but each is worth several times what I paid for it back then. Meanwhile, gold was worth nearly 900 dollars an ounce in 1980. It is now worth 1200 dollars an ounce (and no dividends). That is a pretty horrible 30 year investment. Taking into account inflation, you have made no money on gold in 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 No sour grapes here. I'm truly glad you did well. What you were doing, however, was not investing. It was gambling. Yeah, same here. I'm glad you did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Nope don't even go there.... I recomended buying gold back when gold was around 1070 /oz. Feb 2 2010..... Today the high for gold was 1254 / oz... A 17% return in about 60 days.Pearls of wisdom are constantly coming out of my mouth... All I ask of you is to be like the baby bird and be a receptical for this knowledge, internalize it. It's really that simple. And If I may quote you directly... McD5 called, he wants you in his thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted May 7, 2010 Author Share Posted May 7, 2010 If a small investor is doing a ton of buying and selling in companies they don't understand and trying to time the market, they are going to eat it. True, but you are also at a disadvantage any time you buy or sell. The small investor doesn't play on the same field with the large investors who through superior even legal insider information can control purchases and sales to their own benifit. Thus all volitility is good for them, while But the Proctor and Gamble stock I bought in 1988 at $5.20 a share is now worth over $60 dollars a share (and P&G hasn't done well lately). Plus I have reinvested substantial dividends the whole time. The Exxon stock I own has done much, much better. Pepsi, Johnson and Johnson, etc. Each company has a different record, but each is worth several times what I paid for it back then. Meanwhile, gold was worth nearly 900 dollars an ounce in 1980. It is now worth 1200 dollars an ounce (and no dividends). That is a pretty horrible 30 year investment. Taking into account inflation, you have made no money on gold in 30 years. Yep if you purchased gold on one day in Jan 79, the day the soviet union invaded Afghanistan and everybody and their mother were buying gold as a hedge against WWIII, you would be right.... However if you bought gold a few weeks before or a few weeks after you would have paid around $200.... But honestly, I didn't recomend buying gold in the 80's or 90's. I recomended it in feb 2010. The reason being god is a great hedge against inflation, and it's a great investment during volitile times. Times like we see ourselves in currently.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted May 7, 2010 Author Share Posted May 7, 2010 McD5 called, he wants you in his thread. Did you read my quotes attributed to you.... my memory is kind of bad, but I think it was you who said those things to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgundy Burner Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Tiiiiiiimmmmmmmbbbeerrrrrrr! anyway... dang, i see predicto has many of the same stocks that i have and reinvests them too. it's the way to go. :point2sky now, if i can convince him to change political beliefs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 True, but you are also at a disadvantage any time you buy or sell. The small investor doesn't play on the same field with the large investors who through superior even legal insider information can control purchases and sales to their own benifit. Thus all volitility is good for them, while Do you REALLY believe that essentially the samething doesn't happen in the commodity market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GibbsFactor Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Ahem. Someone say something about recommending Gold? HA! I jumped on that bandwagon in 07 when it was still under $600! Yes, I am a bandit and no you can't have any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pwyl Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 The reason being god is a great hedge against inflation, and it's a great investment during volitile times. Times like we see ourselves in currently.... Praying this is true, aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgundy Burner Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 speaking of gold and silver - get an ounce every now and then since the 1980s, mostly on the dips. have some gold coins too - some are inherited. it is a good hedge as some have said. it's always a good idea to have some in reserves at all times. silver - been loading up on this commodity for quite a while. lots of silver coins too. same advice as above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoony Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Did you read my quotes attributed to you.... my memory is kind of bad, but I think it was you who said those things to me.... I get it- you've been douched so many times on this board you're clinging to whatever you can at this point. It's all you have. Gold is still a fool's investment. Don't take it from me, just open a book. Or look at historical returns against, well, anything. But I love your logic. Gold is up, and you're a genius. :dunce: As for your shtick about Greece- NOTHING HAS HAPPENED. They've been rioting for years there. The EU is still bailing them out. The situation has been essentially the same in Greece now for the past 12 months. They are on the brink. Nothing's changed. YOU predicted failure of the EU and collapse/default of the EURO. Actually, to my earlier point, you didn't predict ****. You just posted an article. Actually predicting somethign would take balls. But funny to see you crowing. Don't worry, you don't look pathetic. .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 dang, i see predicto has many of the same stocks that i have and reinvests them too. it's the way to go. :point2sky now, if i can convince him to change political beliefs... Sorry. I got all educamacated already. :pfft: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 I love the new lines from the resident buy and hold minions. Now, if you correctly predict a market move or pick a stock correctly, they will say that you were gambling; because no one is able to predict the market. You are better off just not applying any rational thought and dumping your money in a mutual fund each month. MAKE IT EASY! I probably made more money in the last 2 days..... Nevermind, it will be lost in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Gold is still a fool's investment. Don't take it from me, just open a book. Or look at historical returns against, well, anything. I'm not a big Dave Ramsey fan (though he is good for his target audience), but I happened to stumble across his show on the radio one day, and he had an awesome quote: "Gold is the snuggy of the investment world. It's sold on late night TV, and if you buy it, it just makes you look like an idiot." You are better off just not applying any rational thought and dumping your money in a mutual fund each month. Low-cost, broadly based index buy and hold investing is backed by reams of academic research including a Nobel Prize in economics (google Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory if you are so inclined). Every time this topic comes up, I provide nearly endless citations from the academic literature demonstrating conclusively the inferiority of attempting to time the markets. The best you can provide, on the other hand, is a lot of scorn and a few unverifiable personal anecdotes about how awesome an investor you are, always after the fact. If you would like to pursue your approach, fine (and I thank you for helping keep the markets efficient), but don't lose touch with reality completely by asserting that passive investing is avoiding rational thought. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southtown Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 I'm not a big Dave Ramsey fan (though he is good for his target audience), but I happened to stumble across his show on the radio one day, and he had an awesome quote: "Gold is the snuggy of the investment world. It's sold on late night TV, and if you buy it, it just makes you look like an idiot." I don't get it. I can understand not liking gold as an investment going forward, but it seems tough to criticize gold as an investment over the last 20 years. Anyone who bought gold over the past two decades is sitting on a nice return and enjoying their snuggie...and I doubt they feel like idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 After the fact? I made most of my money investing before I started talking stocks on here. I don't care if you don't believe me; deep down you do but you want to win an internet argument so you'll try to cast doubt as to whether I'm telling the truth or not. I guess we'll just each do it our own ways and see what happens. Something tells me, given your personality, you won't concede even if we crash again. I'm right, aren't I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 I guess we'll just each do it our own ways and see what happens. Something tells me, given your personality, you won't concede even if we crash again. I'm right, aren't I? Why would a crash cause me to concede? As I noted here (no reason to cross-post), a crash would be great for me as someone that buys and holds. Crashes are where buy and hold makes all its money. The problem is that you don't actually understand the approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 I don't get it. I can understand not liking gold as an investment going forward, That's what he was talking about, as he had a caller that asked if he should invest now. People that invested 20 years ago got lucky. Over the long term, gold has no expected increase in value. It just keeps up with inflation (which is how many of its proponents pitch it, unless they're gamblers). The problem is that it's not free to buy or store it, so after costs, the expected real return over the long term is negative. Give me TIPS any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Yes, techboy won't be wrong. He is never wrong. If we go to 7000, meaning that the stock market wouldn't have made a dime for buy and holders for the last 15 years, it wasn't a bad thing. No, that buy and holder will now have the opportunity to buy more stocks for the same price he bought them 15 years ago. All the contributions he made over the years at higher prices? Well, we won't talk about that. I have a Nobel Peace Prize winning economist who will tell you the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Yes, techboy won't be wrong. He is never wrong. If we go to 7000, meaning that the stock market wouldn't have made a dime for buy and holders for the last 15 years, it wasn't a bad thing. No, that buy and holder will now have the opportunity to buy more stocks for the same price he bought them 15 years ago. All the contributions he made over the years at higher prices? Well, we won't talk about that.I have a Nobel Peace Prize winning economist who will tell you the same thing. I'm not sure why you're so angry about this. Nobody's telling you you can't pursue your suboptimal strategy. I hope you do well with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 Tech, I think we can agree that it is suboptimal when you add the statistics of every single person in the world doing both techniques. In one, you have legions of people doing nothing. In the other, you have to actively manage your account. Perhaps by the same people who are 20k in CC debt and can't remember to get to work on time. My point is that me and you are bright. I think bright people can benefit from active trading, especially in a market like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted May 7, 2010 Share Posted May 7, 2010 My point is that me and you are bright. I think bright people can benefit from active trading, especially in a market like this. The data says you're wrong. Even professional money managers, presumably chosen because they are the best and the brightest, beat the market less than would be randomly expected, and there's no way to tell if they will do so in the future. Even a long track record is no sign... look at Bill Miller. Oh, and on the subject of whether or not this drop was a glitch... Six Mega Drops of the Flash Crash; Sam Adams Goes Flat: While the other companies on this list hit zero briefly, Sotheby’s went in the other direction. After opening at $34.61, its shares briefly touched $100,000 before closing at $33. You're going to tell me that was normal trading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted May 8, 2010 Share Posted May 8, 2010 Ah, yes, techboy's "proof" is money managers for fund that are worth billions and billions of dollars. Whereas Westbrook can buy 1000 shares of FAZ for 12k and scalp a quick 500 bucks, these fund managers would have to buy every share of FAZ in existance to make a profit worth talking about. They can't do it. You understand the difference, right? I'm not trying to insult you but you are posting things that makes it appear that you are purposely posting misleading information or that you simply don't grasp the difference between a trader with a 25k account and how easy it is for him to move in and out of the market and the fund manager for Magellan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted May 8, 2010 Share Posted May 8, 2010 How many shares of Sotheby's do you think sold for 100k? Anedotal evidence of miscalculations in stock price really isn't making your case, techboy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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