NFP: Williams over Okung a 'big mistake'

[cphil006]

I have a great idea how about everyone give Shanny some room to do what he does best and not question everything the man does. Shanny was hired to do great things for us because he is a proven coach so how about we see what happens before we unleash on all his decisions remember we are not eagle fans but part of a greater nation which is the SKINS.

I've got to think Morocco Brown and Scott Campbell had huge inputs as well as Bruce Allen.

[RealisticSkinsLoyalist]

We are not drafting for this year alone. We are drafting for the next 5-10 years.

So if we are going all in this season, then yeah, Okung would be the pick, b/c he is more NFL ready today. But if Shanny is looking at at 3-5 year window, the thinking is that by the 2nd or 3rd season, when we should be really competing for a championship, Williams will be the better of the two after some seasoning.

Williams over Okung represents that we are not 100% win now IMO, but rather are trying to build for a 5 year window.

The Skins aren't a team that is built for the next 5 years, we are in the twilight zone between having to be in win now mode but not having great personnel.

Look at our guys- we brought in McNabb who has 2-4 years at best, certainly not 5 or more. Our defense isn't exactly composed of spring chickens either- London Fletcher, Phillip Daniels, and Andre Carter are all guys who are nearing the ends of their careers. Portis, Rabach, Moss, and Dockery aren't young guys. Look at the free agents we've brought in - Hicks, Galloway, Phillip Buchanon, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, all on the wrong side of 30.

It just seems to me like the FO is trying to go in two directions at once when we need to be going all in one way or the other - either stockpile for the future (in which case T. Williams is the pick), or go full on for 2011 or 2012 (in which case you need the sure thing in Okung).

I actually liked that it looked like Shanny and Allen were trying to win now. The NFL isn't MLB or the NBA, you don't build 5 years ahead of time. The NFL is a league where you can drastically improve in a single season. Look at Miami a few years ago - 1-15 to playoffs the next year, or the Falcons after they picked up Matt Ryan. It just doesn't make sense to be "building for the future" and bringing in over-30 players.

[TheRookie]

You sound like a risk taker, so I don't need to explain the risk-reward concept to you. But you run in to some problems with that when the risk you're taking is based on people instead of probability.

Sure, Williams may be able to aggregate his fecal matter and become an elite NFL tackle. He's apparently got the athletic potential to do so. But he's also got a history of work habits that tend to cause even athletically gifted players to wash out at the NFL level. Okung, on the other hand, is almost universally expected to be a very good NFL tackle because of his combination of brains, skills, and work ethic.

In my estimation, it's easier to teach a hard worker to work effectively in your scheme than it is to take a guy who fits your scheme and teach him to work hard.

Now consider where we picked: 4th overall. The player taken there is likely to make upwards of $30M guaranteed in his rookie contract. If it was my $30M, I'd want to invest it in the surest commodity, because I'm pretty certain that I'm going to get a reliable return on that investment. Sure, the riskier pick carries the possibility of a slightly higher return, but he also carries the significant possibility of a low return.

On top of that, I don't get why everybody thinks Okung's already as good as he's going to get, but Williams has heaps of potential. What's to stop Okung from improving as an athlete as well? He's obviously the kind of guy who's willing to work at improving himself.

These are all good arguments and I'd be lying if I said I didn't have some of the same concerns. I know this whole discussion is filled with unknowns, but if we make the assumption that Okung is the better now player and Williams is the "upside guy" with a higher plateau (I don't think this is too far-fetched), then yeah it just comes down to me being willing to roll the dice on the kid's potential. Honestly, I would have been happy with either pick. But, I like the prospects of who we have now.

[Going Commando]

He spent four years in good college program, with the NFL beckoning, and he didn't commit himself? After four years, don't tell me how much potential he has.

I'm not sure what you're getting at or how a rookie having potential can possibly be a bad thing. How do you know his level of commitment to football? His coach wasn't very specific, or even all that negative IMO. You come off as if you are saying that a good rookie comes into the NFL at full tilt, without any room for improvement, and already performing like a seasoned pro. This doesn't even come close to describing Orakpo and he's the most successful rookie we've had in ages.

[icbmayday]

He will definitely be a pro bowler no worries

[kvarlo12000]

has anyone compared these self proclaimed "gurus" mock drafts with the real draft? not so good. other then the top 3 picks which my 5 year nephew told me would happen.

these douche bags know nothing!!!

My 7 year old nephew called me and asked if the old quarterback was on the team still, and I told him we traded him to Oakland. He replied atleast we finally did something right LOL!

[theTruthTeller]

i'm not confident that TW will be a better pick than Okung...

i am confident however, that Shanahan & Allen know infinitely more about football & evaluating talent in their left pinkies than any of these "experts" could ever forget.

in lieu of this finding...i think i'll stop short of hitting the "panic" button.

I agree entirely, but everyone makes mistakes, even the pros. That's why you don't need to look far to find busts in the first round and all-pros that aren't drafted at all. A lot depends upon what the player is willing to do with his talent. Hard to measure that.

[KDawg]

I agree entirely, but everyone makes mistakes, even the pros. That's why you don't need to look far to find busts in the first round and all-pros that aren't drafted at all. A lot depends upon what the player is willing to do with his talent. Hard to measure that.

Exactly. This is why I think we made the correct choice. Williams has everything we need in a lineman, including a decent set of pass blocking skills (aside from needing a good amount of work on his redirection on counter moves and a few other minor technique tweaks and fixes), but he fits what we need out of the run game almost to a tee.

It's up to him how he pans out, now.

[jileib]

I love the skins, but, in all candor, they took the wrong guy; hope I am wrong and, then again, what do I know.

[JustAfan47]

Exactly. This is why I think we made the correct choice. Williams has everything we need in a lineman, including a decent set of pass blocking skills (aside from needing a good amount of work on his redirection on counter moves and a few other minor technique tweaks and fixes), but he fits what we need out of the run game almost to a tee.

It's up to him how he pans out, now.

This is spot on.....

[jdenzo]

Hey Guys,

I think you draft the person better suited to fit your team. The person who fits with team "A" may be different from who is the better fit for team "B".

Williams is going to be a good one and you really cant compare him to Okung now that the draft is over. Different teammates, philosophies, game plans,etc.

He will be a good pick regardless of comparisons, most likely.

[SKINSFAN87]

To be fair, the Redskins have done little to build credibility in the past decade. They have earned the negative press they get with questionable front office moves and poor play. Until those things get turned around, they can expect to be second guessed by both the media and their fans. Just because the personnel people changed doesn't mean things are automatically better. That'll take time to determine. So far, Shanahan and Allen haven't done anything in DC to prove their worth.

I understand that, but to be honest with you, i think that we could win the SB and still get dogged on our decisions. The media will pound this team no matter how good we become. It's like media tradition that can't be broken. However, i would love to see us start winning consistently every year so we make it tougher on them to come up with excuses. Go trent williams and HTTR!

[IrepDC]

I don't know if anyone else caught College Football Live yesterday, but they did a whole run down of Oklahoma's new team. In their analysis, well actually twice in their analysis, the said that the team would be BETTER OFF now that Williams is gone. They talked about how he was "underperforming all year round" and how QB Levi Jones will "now have a pocket to throw from" with the younger guys playing on the OL this year. They praised Bradford, McCoy, and Gresham, and gave credit to all the 7 drafted players' from the school, but out of everyone they made a point to say that Williams would be missed the least. I found that interesting coming from guys that closely follow NCAA football year round. Keep in mind these guys were not discussing the NFL or us drafting Williams. They were just discussing the positive effect on Oklahoma's team with him being gone. It seems like we drafted him off of pure potential because his play doesn't sound like a #4 overall pick. Did anyone else catch the show?

[Spade]

More upside in Trent, but Okung was the safer pick but every pick in the 1st round is a risky pick. We won't really know for a couple years.

[Redskins4ever]

Trent Williams is more athletic. He fits the running scheme better. He can also play any position along the offensive line. Okung is physically stronger and without a doubt the best offensive lineman in the draft. But Williams is a great pick, and will be an outstanding replacement for Chris Samuels.