dcoles11 Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 With the Redskins being in bad need of a QB, in my opinion (no offense Colt Brennen lovers) and more than likely holding a 1-10 pick in the 1st round of the 2010 draft, I started looking at where successful QBs in the NFL were drafted. At the start of the 2009 NFL season, 18 of the 32 starting QBs in the league were 1st round draft picks. The numbers break down as follows. 1st: 18 2nd: 2 3rd: 2 4th: 2 5th: 0 6th: 3 7th: 1 Undrafted: 4 The statistics show that you can pick up a starting QB in nearly any round and actually undrafted QBs make up as many of the NFL's starting QBs as the 2nd and 3rd rounds combined. A majority of the starting QBs in the NFL are former 1st round picks, but some of that can be contributed to the fact that 1st round picks are given starting jobs and keep them until they fail. I went further with my research, wanting to know more than just what round starting QBs were drafted, I wanted to know what round the most successful starting QBs were drafted. I looked at Super Bowl winning QBs first. Of the past 20 Super Bowl winners, the numbers break down like this. 1st round: 11 2nd: 1 3rd: 2 4th: 0 5th: 0 6th: 4 7th: 0 Undrafted and after the 7th round: 2 Again, 1st round draft picks dominate. A little more than half of the starting QBs in the NFL are 1st round draft picks and a little more than half (11) of the past 20 Super Bowl winning QBs were first round draft picks. One could argue that, of course a majority of Super Bowl winning QBs are going to be 1st round draft picks, a majority of starting QBs in the NFL were 1st round draft picks. Our own Mark Rypien was one of those 6th round QBs to win a Super Bowl. I then went back and looked at Pro Bowl selections, to get a more individual scope. I went back to 1990, from then until now there have been a total 138 QBs selected to the Pro Bowl, the numbers break down as follows. 1st: 68 Undrafted or after the 7th round: 24 2nd: 17 3rd: 6 4th: 7 5th: 4 6th: 11 7th: 1 (The Redskins, Gus Freotte) Again, 1st round picks make up around half, a little less than half this time. Keep in mind that there are duplicates in these numbers, as in, there has not been 11 different 6th round draft picks to make the Pro Bowl, a majority of those are from Tom Brady. Based on the information, the safest bet seems to be the 1st round, but the later rounds, undrafted as well, seem to have out performed the early to mid rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seantaylor=god Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 nice work, very interesting. I wonder where Tackles were taken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
generals01 Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 Also, to people who point to the handful of mid round guys as evidence that we can draft a qb later and still have success, look how many qbs have been drafted in rounds 2 through 7 that have done absolutely nothing in the nfl and have no potential to ever make an impact, if they are even in the league anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcoles11 Posted October 20, 2009 Author Share Posted October 20, 2009 Also, to people who point to the handful of mid round guys as evidence that we can draft a qb later and still have success, look how many qbs have been drafted in rounds 2 through 7 that have done absolutely nothing in the nfl and have no potential to ever make an impact, if they are even in the league anymore I saw that while I was doing the research as well. There are very few successful QBs in the past 20 years or so to come out of rounds 2-5. Brett Favre and Drew Brees, are pretty much the only QBs worth their salt to come out of the 2nd round in the past 20 years. I consider the 6th round, 7th round, and non drafted QBs that have had success to be aberrations and not something you can count on. If you want a franchise QB, you need to get him in the 1st round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darklight1216 Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 That's very interesting. Thank you for sharing that information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Screen Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 Sadly, there doesn't seem like anyone coming out this year that is worthy of that high of a selection. By that, I don't like any of the guys coming out well enough to take with a 1-10 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcoles11 Posted October 20, 2009 Author Share Posted October 20, 2009 Sadly, there doesn't seem like anyone coming out this year that is worthy of that high of a selection. By that, I don't like any of the guys coming out well enough to take with a 1-10 pick. I don't even bother to give my opinion on college QBs because i've been dead wrong lately. I thought Phillip Rivers and his wierd motion would be awful in the NFL. I thought Eli Manning was only hyped up because of his name. I think with the history the Redskins have in drafting QBs in the 1st round its a side effect that I assume all QBs are going to be busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brother Redskin Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 thanks for the info. wonder how it breaks down between 1st half of 1st round and second half. Both our late 1st rounders (ramsey, campbell) didn't suceed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IONTOP Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 I was thinking New York City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Fried Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 Good thread. It's now obvious what we need to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
generals01 Posted October 20, 2009 Share Posted October 20, 2009 I wouldn't mind Clausen. He is rising up draft boards (at least Kipers) with his play this year. Plus he has played behind a crappy line so long he would feel right at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Batman Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 Jake Locker out of Washington is a guy that everyone is saying always had incredible physical tools but is truly becoming a student of the game and has come into his own. He's one I would LOVE to see in the B&G. We will be in a position this year like none other to take a franchise QB due to the depth at the position in this draft. Sam Bradford, Jake Locker, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, and possibly Tim Tebow are all guys that could go in the first round and be legitimate starters at the next level. Let's see who falls to us when April rolls around, and not be afraid to pull the trigger on one, assuming we spend literally every other pick on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcoles11 Posted October 21, 2009 Author Share Posted October 21, 2009 Let's see who falls to us when April rolls around, and not be afraid to pull the trigger on one, assuming we spend literally every other pick on the line. Thats what the Falcons did, drafted Ryan then drafted people to protect him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soup Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 wasn't colt brennan a 6th round pick? I hate the fact that the redskins put colt on IR, we could have seen what he's got at the QB spot. But nooooo...Vinny corn holes us again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimmySmith Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 More research is needed. Obviously you listed starting and SB winners. But how about ALL QBs. My reasoning is this. If 50 QBs were taken in the 1st as opposed to 10 in the 2nd it stands to reason that there is a far greater possibility that 1 of the 1st rounders will excel just due to numbers. There is also the early round-late round thing. Both Ramsey and Campbell should hardly be confused with a top 5 pick. Also, last 20 SBs have been won by only about 14 QBs (sorry did not have the time to get it exact) so it skews that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devastate Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 That's very interesting. Thank you for sharing that information. Heath Shuler, Patrick Ramsey, Jason Campbell.. orly? Uh Oh Trent Green.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Screen Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 Jake Locker out of Washington is a guy that everyone is saying always had incredible physical tools but is truly becoming a student of the game and has come into his own. He's one I would LOVE to see in the B&G. We will be in a position this year like none other to take a franchise QB due to the depth at the position in this draft. Sam Bradford, Jake Locker, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, and possibly Tim Tebow are all guys that could go in the first round and be legitimate starters at the next level. Let's see who falls to us when April rolls around, and not be afraid to pull the trigger on one, assuming we spend literally every other pick on the line. Tim Tebow will never be a legitimate starter at the next level. In fact, the only team I could see taking him in the first round to be a starter would be Jacksonville. And that would be mainly to sell tix. He's never gonna be a starter in the NFL for very long. The ideal situation for him, would be for a good team to select him and have him occasionally run the wildcat. As for the QBs you mentioned: I would probably select Clausen or Locker. Bradford's stock is gonna take a hit now, with the shoulder injuries. His best bet would be to come back his senior year and prove that his arm is fine, then enter the draft the following year. And McCoy I have no use for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrJL Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 how about showing how many first rounders are out of the league? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myzhi Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 how about showing how many first rounders are out of the league? He/she would have to do that with every QB drafted or un drafted that go onto team. That would require way too much work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
generals01 Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 He/she would have to do that with every QB drafted or un drafted that go onto team. That would require way too much work. Stumbled across this gem of a site. http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html Every qb ever drafted and when. Looking at this, there are a good number of mid round qbs this decade I have never heard of and a few I have only heard of in the context of "Is that guy really the starter this week? (Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, Dan Orlovsky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 A trend in the draft has been that QBs get taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds and then sit until about 6th or later. Maybe one gets taken in the 3rd or 4th each year, but that's about it. The thinking is that projected starters must be taken in the first two rounds and then it's not worth taking a project or a backup before the 5th. That's probably a big part of why QBs from that part of the draft make up such a small part of your list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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