A Close Look at Zorn's Playcalling

[darrelgreenie]

Jim Zorn's playcalling has been called into question as reason for the Redskins struggles on offense this season.

Murf pointed out in that in Giants game there was a 50/50 split on 1st down run pass ratio and pointed this out:

To recap, that’s a total of 22 first downs for the Redskins on the day. The playcalling splits evenly between 11 running plays and 11 passing plays. But, as you’ll see, the production wasn’t nearly the same between the running and passing game.

After picking up 34 yards on the first run of the day, Portis was shut down the rest of the game – especially on first down. Nine times on first down the team handed Portis the ball and he picked up a total of 40 yards (which translates to a healthy 4.4 yards per carry). But don’t be fooled. Take away the big first carry and you’re looking at eight carries for just six yards. We repeat – eight carries for six yards. That’s not going to get it done, folks.

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?t=299294

From the same game Larry Wiseman pointed this out:

Until their final drive, which produced their only offensive touchdown, the Redskins would see eight first-down calls in the final two quarters. They ran on seven of them. Their gross yardage on those seven mad dashes: four yards.

Sequentially, the runs went this way: 2, 1, 1, 3, 3, -6, 0. That doesn’t leave the play-caller with the options he’d like on second down. Or third down.

So why the emphasis on the run on first down, with so little success to justify it?

I posted the 1st down play calls from the Rams game where Zorn called 15 runs, and 13 passing plays on 1st down.

1-10-WAS 25 (14:54) J.Campbell pass incomplete deep right to M.Kelly (J.Wade).P1

1-10-WAS 14 (11:16) J.Campbell pass short middle to C.Cooley to WAS 22 for 8 yards (J.Butler; W.Witherspoon).P2

1-10-WAS 43 (9:25) C.Portis right tackle to SL 45 for 12 yards (O.Atogwe, D.Vobora).R1

1-10-SL 45 (8:50) C.Portis left guard to SL 43 for 2 yards (O.Atogwe).R3

1-10-SL 32 (7:40) J.Campbell scrambles right end pushed ob at SL 19 for 13 yards (W.Witherspoon). R4

1-10-SL 19 (7:10) C.Portis left tackle to SL 8 for 11 yards (J.Laurinaitis). R5

1-8-SL 8 (6:25) C.Portis up the middle to SL 7 for 1 yard (O.Atogwe, D.Vobora).R6

1-10-WAS 26 (13:55) J.Campbell pass short middle to M.Sellers to WAS 38 for 12 yards (D.Vobora). P3

1-10-WAS 38 (13:20) J.Campbell pass short middle to M.Kelly to WAS 44 for 6 yards (J.Butler).P4

1-10-WAS 49 (12:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Campbell pass incomplete short right to C.Portis. P5

1-10-SL 29 (11:20) M.Mason right end to SL 26 for 3 yards (L.Ramsey, J.Laurinaitis).R7

1-8-SL 8 (8:55) C.Portis up the middle to SL 10 for -2 yards (L.Little).R8

1-10-WAS 22 (3:50) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass incomplete short middle to S.Moss (L.Little).P6

1-10-WAS 40 (2:10) C.Portis left end to WAS 43 for 3 yards (W.Witherspoon, C.Long).R9

1-10-SL 48 (1:48) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass incomplete short right to A.Randle El.P7

1-10-SL 37 (1:36) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short right to S.Moss to SL 30 for 7 yards (O.Atogwe).P8

1-10-WAS 21 (13:55) C.Portis left end to WAS 28 for 7 yards (J.Laurinaitis).R10

1-10-WAS 33 (11:50) L.Betts up the middle to WAS 36 for 3 yards (W.Witherspoon; L.Ramsey).R11

1-10-WAS 47 (10:40) M.Mason up the middle to WAS 47 for no gain (C.Long).R12

1-10-SL 35 (9:20) C.Portis left tackle to SL 31 for 4 yards (D.Vobora, J.Laurinaitis).R13

1-7-SL 7 (8:00) C.Portis left end to SL 7 for no gain (G.Gibson).R14

1-10-WAS 7 (12:55) C.Portis left end to WAS 6 for -1 yards (W.Witherspoon, C.Ryan).R15

1-10-WAS 20 (9:15) C.Portis right tackle to WAS 27 for 7 yards (J.Hall).R16

1-10-WAS 35 (7:35) J.Campbell pass incomplete deep right to D.Thomas.P9

1-10-SL 40 (6:45) J.Campbell FUMBLES (Aborted) at SL 40, recovered by WAS-C.Portis at SL 45 P10

1-10-SL 29 (5:20) J.Campbell pass incomplete deep left to M.Kelly.P11

1-10-SL 11 (3:00) L.Betts left end to SL 7 for 4 yards (J.Laurinaitis, J.Wade).R17

I wanted to compare the playcalling to game when the offense was clicking, i chose the 1st Dallas game of 2008:

1-10-WAS 18 (7:05) C.Portis left end to WAS 19 for 1 yard (C.Canty; D.Ware).

1-10-WAS 20 (4:20) J.Campbell pass incomplete deep middle to S.Moss [G.Ellis]. Pass incomplete at the Washington 40.

1-10-WAS 21 (:24) J.Campbell pass short middle to J.Thrash to WAS 26 for 5 yards (Z.Thomas; K.Hamlin). Quick slant.

1-10-WAS 43 (14:21) J.Campbell pass short middle to S.Moss to DAL 50 for 7 yards (A.Henry; Z.Thomas).

1-10-DAL 43 (13:21) A.Randle El left end to DAL 38 for 5 yards (B.James). End around.

1-10-DAL 31 (11:58) J.Campbell pass short left to A.Randle El to DAL 18 for 13 yards (A.Henry). P7

1-10-DAL 18 (11:17) J.Campbell pass short left to S.Moss to DAL 3 for 15 yards (A.Henry) [A.Spencer]. Pass caught on a curl.

1-3-DAL 3 (10:32) J.Campbell pass incomplete short left to S.Moss. Quick out at the Dallas 2;

1-10-WAS 49 (8:46) J.Campbell pass incomplete short right (M.Spears). Pass was deflected by Spears.

1-10-DAL 36 (7:34) J.Campbell pass deep right to S.Moss ran ob at DAL 8 for 28 yards [M.Spears]. Campbell escaped the pressure prior P11

completing the pass.

1-8-DAL 8 (7:03) C.Portis right tackle to DAL 3 for 5 yards (C.Canty).

1-10-WAS 39 (4:16) J.Campbell pass deep right to S.Moss to DAL 8 for 53 yards (T.Newman). Pass complete on fly pattern. P13

1-8-DAL 8 (3:25) L.Betts up the middle to DAL 4 for 4 yards (B.James; P.Watkins).

1-10-WAS 35 (12:19) J.Campbell pass short left to C.Portis to WAS 39 for 4 yards (B.James). Screen pass left.

1-10-DAL 26 (10:02) L.Betts up the middle to DAL 23 for 3 yards (K.Hamlin; P.Watkins).

1-16-DAL 16 (8:39) J.Campbell pass incomplete short middle to S.Moss. Pass thrown middle incomplete at the 10; James closest defender.

1-10-WAS 20 (5:06) J.Campbell pass short right to S.Moss to WAS 23 for 3 yards (B.James).

1-10-WAS 36 (3:47) C.Portis left end to WAS 33 for -3 yards (J.Ratliff).

1-10-DAL 44 (:12) C.Portis up the middle to DAL 38 for 6 yards (D.Ware).

1-10-DAL 33 (13:50) L.Betts right tackle to DAL 30 for 3 yards (M.Spears).

1-10-DAL 21 (12:26) L.Betts up the middle to DAL 15 for 6 yards (Z.Thomas; G.Ellis).

1-10-WAS 34 (10:16) C.Portis left guard to WAS 37 for 3 yards (D.Ware).

1-10-WAS 48 (8:58) C.Portis right end to DAL 39 for 13 yards (Z.Thomas). R20

1-10-DAL 39 (8:18) J.Campbell pass short right to C.Cooley pushed ob at DAL 33 for 6 yards (G.Ellis). Pass complete off play-action and roll

right.

1-10-DAL 26 (6:32) C.Portis right end to DAL 25 for 1 yard (M.Spears).

1-10-DAL 16 (4:22) L.Betts left guard to DAL 16 for no gain (M.Spears).

http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/29586/DAL_Gamebook.pdf

I count 27 First down plays

with 14 passes

13 runs

Seems balanced right?

But if you notice the bulk of the 1st down passes were called at the start of the game.

Most of the runs came in the second half like a typical WCO; pass early and often to get the lead run late to seal the win.

Other factors that stood out:

- Betts actual got some carries 11 in fact

-We passed on the goalline and scored

JC had a playaction sprint out pass to Thrash for a TD

A nice pass to ARE

Take a look:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/washington-redskins/09000d5d80b30ee8/WK-4-Jason-Campbell-highlights

Thoughts? Comments?

[REDSKINZ-RIDEORDIE]

Here's a closer look................:pooh:

[Jumbo]

Thanks for putting that kind of effort into your OP, amigo. Whenever I see that sort of work as the start of a thread, or as part of an ongoing discussion, and independent of whether or to what extent I agree or disagree with the points made, I am appreciative. Everyone here benefits when members make that kind of effort.

I hope more will feel similarly inspired, whether the efforts always seem to go over well or not. Sometimes good threads die and stupid threads live, and that is the nature of any large-membership sports board, and pretty common in all boards with ratio to size. But while ES is as amuck as ever, to any unbiased and informed observer there exists among all the white noise a great deal of the high quality football discussion here, and that has always been the primary goal of this site.

[SkinsFTW]

With our OL injuries now the playcalling is going to get worse and worse.

Zorn may as well resign now, IMO.

[Hubbs]

Absolutely great thread, and I agree with the conclusion wholeheartedly.

Far, far too much is made of the "run/pass balance" that offenses are supposed to adhere to in the NFL.

The fact is, teams with the lead in the second half run a lot more, and teams who are behind in the second half pass a lot more.

Therefore, it makes infinitely more statistical sense to look at first half playcalling to determine which teams are actually tactically superior to their opponents.

From that playchart, it seems obvious to me that Zorn was much more effective before he went into his shell of run-first predictability. I've agreed for months - hell, it's in my sig.

But to actually have it spelled out like that is nice. Props to you. I can only hope that Zorn grows to feel such a "**** it" mentality that he returns to this type of playcalling before it's too late.

[jkypoo]

Zorn is a first time head coach who believes that his system and philosophy can and will work. He seems so dead set on proving this that he continues to put the personnel he does have in positions where they cannot succeed. If he were more seasoned and did not have to prove himself, he might coach and call plays to the strengths of the personnel that he has. Successful coaches seem to gameplan around his teams strengths and the opposing teams weaknesses. Zorn, however, seems to coach and gamplan what he feels, on paper, is a sound philosophy. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. He needs to change is approach to effect change on the field. Otherwise, he is insane.

[titus3]

I don't think it matter what plays Zorn calls on first down. He can't predict exactly what the defense will be doing so it's up to the qb to make the adjustments on the line. Besides, just because a running play on first down is not successful doesn't mean the drive will stall.

In the Giants game for example, Wiseman said we ran on 7 (although I counted 6) of eight first down calls with the gross of 4 yards. What he didn't tell you is that we actually made 1st downs on 2 of those series. We also had a 3rd and 2, a 3rd and 6, and a 3rd and 5 that weren't converted to first downs on those other series when we ran on first down.

On the 3rd and 2 we failed to complete a pass for the 1st down. On the 3rd and 6 JC got sacked after he double clutched but we still scored a field goal. The last 3rd and 5 was another incomplete pass. In my opinion, not being able to convert these passes on third downs is hindering this offense and not Zorn's play calling.

[Oldfan]

The problems with the Redskins offense begin with the O-line, a problem caused by the Gibbs policy of trading away draft picks between 2004-2006.

Even before they exited with new injuries, the two mainstays of our O-line, Thomas and Samuels, were playing with old injuries which made them lesser players than in past years.

So, while Jim Zorn might be fairly criticized on his game plan, let's bear in mind that his grade D offensive line is better at run blocking than pass protection, so he's trying to avoid third and longs, holding calls and turnovers, especially deep in his own end of the field.

Let's also remember that Jim Zorn didn't have the advantage of seeing the stats before he made his calls.

[Oldfan]

With our OL injuries now the playcalling is going to get worse and worse.

Illogical. The quality of the playcalling is not affected by the talent. It's only the result that is affected.

[SkinsFTW]

Illogical. The quality of the playcalling is not affected by the talent. It's only the result that is affected.

Haha.

You are funny.

Why did Zorn go dink and dunk last year? He said it was because of the OL injuries, maybe he was lying. Oldfan thinks so.

[HEavyJumbo85]

The problems with the Redskins offense begin with the O-line, a problem caused by the Gibbs policy of trading away draft picks between 2004-2006

Thank goodness Vinny finally had some sense to build through the draft in 2008 . He missed on TEN draft picks, but at least he didn't trade them away, right?

/Extreme Sarcasm.

[Oldfan]

Thank goodness Vinny finally had some sense to build through the draft in 2008 . He missed on TEN draft picks, but at least he didn't trade them away, right?

/Extreme Sarcasm.

Your post is extreme exaggeration. Vinny has done well on his draft picks. Those second-round receivers would look much better if the O-line was playing well.

[HEavyJumbo85]

Your post is extreme exaggeration. Vinny has done well on his draft picks. Those second-round receivers would look much better if the O-line was playing well.

Your post is an extreme cop out. If those guys could play we'd have seen it by now. Does the offensive line control how much room Malcom Kelly knows to give himself when running a fade route? Does the O-line make Devin Thomas run bad routes, never get open, and drop the ball if it's thrown to him? Does Fred Davis forget to protect the ball, leave his feet, and fumble because the offensive line is old? Even if Jason Campbell had the worst O-line in professional football, these guys would have shown flashes of ability in the year plus that we've had them. How are Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, and Chris Cooley able to show professional ability amidst such turmoil on the O-line? I'd really like to know.

Now I'm still not convinced that Malcom Kelly can't play, but Thomas and Fred Davis are busts as far as I'm concerned, poor pass protection or not. Even not including the 3 receivers there are 6 other picks that washed out and 1 who's been relegated to a backup by a Joe Gibbs late round pick.

Playcalling is affected by the O-line's ability to protect, this is true, but it's not the offensive line or Zorn's playcalling that's preventing the 2nd round receivers from getting open and catching the football. You'd think by accident they'd have done something by now.

[Oldfan]

Your post is an extreme cop out.

Your post tap dances in an attempt to duck the obvious fact-- all the skill players, QB, RB and receivers would give better performances if we had a good O line.

[SkinsFTW]

Your post is extreme exaggeration. Vinny has done well on his draft picks. Those second-round receivers would look much better if the O-line was playing well.

Swap OL with QB and I'd agree.

[HEavyJumbo85]

Your post tap dances in an attempt to duck the obvious fact-- all the skill players, QB, RB and receivers would give better performances if we had a good O line.

I know what you're trying to do, harping on a general theory that is most often times believed to be the case, even though that's not always true. Even if I gave you an example of a situation where a team prevailed and produced despite poor offensive line play, you'd go one of a hundred different directions citing different circumstances, i.e. different climate, different color socks, mother's maiden name, etc. as long as it didn't involve you directly confronting the truth.

The 4th most sacks allowed, ending up 23rd in rushing yardage screams poor O-line to me, yet somehow, Santonio Holmes eeked out 55 catches for 821 yards and 6 TD's, and "Superstar" Nate Washington (who doesn't have the pedigree of our 3 2nd round pass catchers) ended up catching 40 balls for 631 yards and 3 TDs. The Steelers ended up winning the Super Bowl and guys seemed to produce alright despite this poor O-line play.

And you use the term "Better", what's your definition of better? 5 catches for Kelly instead of 3? 100 yards for Thomas over 5 games as opposed to 80? Very subjective, very general.

[darrelgreenie]

I don't think it matter what plays Zorn calls on first down. He can't predict exactly what the defense will be doing so it's up to the qb to make the adjustments on the line. Besides, just because a running play on first down is not successful doesn't mean the drive will stall.

You can expect that most defenses will watch for the run or at least have base personel on the field on 1st down.

It a fairly well accepted axiom that 1st down is the easiest/best down to pass against.

I'm not saying that a drive will fail when a 1st down run is unsuccessful.

But, i a successful 1st down has a greater chance of covering 10 yards then a 1st down run. I think was 1 run on 1st down covered 10 yards or more and resulted in a 1st down.

Although a 1st down run might lead to 3rd and short.

A successful 1st down pass gives you another 1st down and a new set of downs.

On the 3rd and 2 we failed to complete a pass for the 1st down. On the 3rd and 6 JC got sacked after he double clutched but we still scored a field goal. The last 3rd and 5 was another incomplete pass. In my opinion, not being able to convert these passes on third downs is hindering this offense and not Zorn's play calling.

Not being able to convert on 3rd down is part of the problem, but if you convert a 1st down to another 1st down then you have fewer 3rd downs to convert.

Successful passes=Chunk yardage

In the Giants game for example, Wiseman said we ran on 7 (although I counted 6) of eight first down calls with the gross of 4 yards. What he didn't tell you is that we actually made 1st downs on 2 of those series. We also had a 3rd and 2, a 3rd and 6, and a 3rd and 5 that weren't converted to first downs on those other series when we ran on first down.

I looked at the game summary chart (which is below) and i know that we gained a 1st down on a few series that started off with a run. But, we converted those by passing the ball on 2nd or 3rd down.

And BTW we were trailing during these playcalls.

You know when the drives stalled?

When we ran on 1st then ran on 2nd and in one instance ran on 3rd.

Washington Redskins at 15:00

1-10-WAS 20 (15:00) C.Portis left guard to WAS 22 for 2 yards (A.Pierce, B.Cofield).

2-8-WAS 22 (14:21) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short middle to C.Cooley to WAS 28 for 6 yards (A.Pierce,

M.Johnson).

3-2-WAS 28 (13:39) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short middle to M.Kelly to WAS 34 for 6 yards (T.Thomas). P9

1-10-WAS 34 (12:58) J.Campbell pass incomplete short right to C.Cooley (J.Tuck) [F.Robbins].

2-10-WAS 34 (12:50) C.Portis left end to WAS 40 for 6 yards (A.Pierce, K.Phillips).

3-4-WAS 40 (12:12) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short middle to A.Randle El to WAS 49 for 9 yards (T.Thomas). P10

1-10-WAS 49 (11:35) L.Betts right end to 50 for 1 yard (R.Bernard, D.Clark). NYG-B.Cofield was injured during the

play.

2-9-50 (10:56) C.Portis left tackle to NYG 43 for 7 yards (B.Johnson).

Washington Redskins at 7:27

1-10-WAS 20 (7:27) C.Portis left tackle to WAS 21 for 1 yard (O.Umenyiora, A.Pierce).

2-9-WAS 21 (6:50) C.Portis left tackle to WAS 25 for 4 yards (J.Tuck, D.Clark). NYG-M.Johnson was injured during

the play. NYG-J.Tuck was injured during the play.

3-5-WAS 25 (6:13) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short left to C.Cooley to WAS 31 for 6 yards (C.Blackburn, P11

C.Webster). FUMBLES (C.Blackburn), RECOVERED by NYG-C.Brown at WAS 20. C.Brown pushed

ob at WAS 1 for 19 yards (J.Campbell).

Play Challenged by WAS and REVERSED.

(Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short left to C.Cooley to WAS 31 for 6 yards (C.Webster, C.Blackburn).

1-10-WAS 31 (5:50) C.Portis left end to WAS 34 for 3 yards (K.Phillips).

2-7-WAS 34 (5:10) C.Portis left tackle to WAS 33 for -1 yards (C.Canty, C.Blackburn).

Timeout #1 by WAS at 04:22.

3-8-WAS 33 (4:22) L.Betts right guard to WAS 31 for -2 yards (M.Johnson).

4-10-WAS 31 (3:55) H.Smith punts 49 yards to NYG 20, Center-E.Albright. D.Hixon to NYG 29 for 9 yards

Washington Redskins at 2:47

1-10-NYG 11 (2:47) C.Portis right tackle to NYG 17 for -6 yards (J.Tuck).

2-16-NYG 17 (2:10) J.Campbell pass short left to C.Portis to NYG 7 for 10 yards (K.Phillips).

Timeout #2 by WAS at 01:16.

3-6-NYG 7 (1:16) J.Campbell sacked at NYG 9 for -2 yards (J.Tuck).

Washington Redskins at 11:03, (1st play from scrimmage 10:56)

1-10-WAS 38 (10:56) D.Thomas left end to WAS 38 for no gain (C.Blackburn). End Around.

2-10-WAS 38 (10:25) J.Campbell pass short middle to A.Randle El to WAS 43 for 5 yards (O.Umenyiora).

3-5-WAS 43 (9:40) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass incomplete short middle to S.Moss (T.Thomas).

Washington Redskins at 3:12, (1st play from scrimmage 3:06)

1-10-WAS 28 (3:06) J.Campbell pass incomplete short left to L.Betts.

2-10-WAS 28 (3:00) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short left to S.Moss to WAS 36 for 8 yards (M.Johnson).

3-2-WAS 36 (2:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short left to A.Randle El to WAS 47 for 11 yards (K.Phillips, M.Kiwanuka). P12

1-10-WAS 47 (2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short middle to C.Cooley to NYG 49 for 4 yards (A.Pierce).

2-6-NYG 49 (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Campbell scrambles right end ran ob at NYG 33 for 16 yards (C.Brown). R13

Two-Minute Warning

1-10-NYG 33 (1:53) (Shotgun) J.Campbell pass short middle to A.Randle El to NYG 17 for 16 yards (M.Kiwanuka). P14

1-10-NYG 17 (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Campbell pass deep middle to C.Cooley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

[darrelgreenie]

So, while Jim Zorn might be fairly criticized on his game plan, let's bear in mind that his grade D offensive line is better at run blocking than pass protection, so he's trying to avoid third and longs, holding calls and turnovers, especially deep in his own end of the field.

I don't know Oldfan, i think last years OL was better at run blocking especially when Jansen was in the line-up.

But, this year OL doesn't seem to get the same push and it doesn't appear that they perform one form of blocking better then the other.

When i look at the team i see a team that is more effective passing then running.

Let's also remember that Jim Zorn didn't have the advantage of seeing the stats before he made his calls.

True, but good playcaller have a feel for the game and typically most WCO playcallers favor the pass to the run especially early in games.

And it seems that passing is this current Redskins team strong suit.

Running the ball early and often seems counter to the WCO philosophy and to this teams strengths.

[darrelgreenie]

With our OL injuries now the playcalling is going to get worse and worse.

Why did Zorn go dink and dunk last year? He said it was because of the OL injuries, maybe he was lying.

Sadly you might be right based on the Zorn's playcalling history.

But, there always the outside chance that he remembers how he called plays the 1st half of 2008.

Shotgun early even on 1st downs,

3, 4 wide receivers sets spread em' out then dink and dunk

[Oldfan]

darrelgreenie -- Running the ball early and often seems counter to the WCO philosophy and to this teams strengths.

I think it's counter to Zorn's preferences also. My bet is that he disagrees that passing is the team's strength with his O-line protection problems, especially deep in his own end of the field where he wants to stay conservative.

[darrelgreenie]

Thanks for putting that kind of effort into your OP, amigo.......there exists among all the white noise a great deal of the high quality football discussion here, and that has always been the primary goal of this site.

From that playchart, it seems obvious to me that Zorn was much more effective before he went into his shell of run-first predictability. I've agreed for months - hell, it's in my sig.

But to actually have it spelled out like that is nice....I can only hope that Zorn grows to feel such a "**** it" mentality that he returns to this type of playcalling before it's too late.

Thanks fellas, there's still pockets of actual football talk on this board

Hubbs-

Sadly, i think its already too late to save Zorn job.

I don't want to go into the whole Synder/Vinnie thing.

But why hire a green HC/playcaller with a green offensive staff then demand win now?

:doh:

I think if Zorn wasn't wearing so many hats he would have figured out the offenses problems already.

I think Zorn's early (2008)playcalling was indicative of his true offensive philosophy but due to many different issues he's lost his way.

[darrelgreenie]

Zorn is a first time head coach who believes that his system and philosophy can and will work. He seems so dead set on proving this that he continues to put the personnel he does have in positions where they cannot succeed. If he were more seasoned and did not have to prove himself, he might coach and call plays to the strengths of the personnel that he has. Successful coaches seem to gameplan around his teams strengths and the opposing teams weaknesses. Zorn, however, seems to coach and gamplan what he feels, on paper, is a sound philosophy. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. He needs to change is approach to effect change on the field. Otherwise, he is insane.

I kinda agree with what you're saying except that Zorn's current playcalling doesn't even match with how he used to call plays.

As a WCO his playcalling seems counter to the system.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Here's an article which shows how 2nd and 3rd down percentages increase with more yardage gained on 1st down. Now, I know that that is something we all could guess intuitively, but I thought it was nice to put some actual nunbers to it:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80ae2bf7&template=with-video&confirm=true

I looked at the Carolina loss to see how the first down playcalling broke down. I counted 21 first down plays. Of those, 14 were runs and 7 passes (including two sacks as passing plays). I didn't count the first and goal from the one, for obvious reasons. That's not a typical first down play, and you wouldn't want to effectively penalize the running game for "only" getting one yard.

Also, lest anyone think the run-heavy attack was based on our having a lead, in the first quarter we ran on 5 first downs and only threw on 1. For the whole first half, it was 8/4.

Anyway, on the 14 first down runs, we gained a total of 42 yards, for an average gain of 3.0 yards per play. On the 7 first down throws, we gained a total of 48 yards, an average of 6.86 per play. To look at it in terms of the median (eliminating the upper and lower halves of the total plays to find the play which is literally the average play), the run median is still 3 yards, while the pass median play was 7. So, that doesn't change anything.

To look at it further, the BEST first down run (6 yards, acheived twice) gained fewer yards than the AVERAGE passing first down. That best rushing result only gained more yards than 3 of the 7 first down passing attempts. The fifth best passing attempt (a screen to D. Thomas) gained 3 yards, equal to the average first down run.

The best drive of the day was a 60 yard dirve leading to the field goal. On that drive, we passed on 3 of 5 first downs. One of the 2 running first downs was the set of downs on which the drive stalled.

Now, obviously, you expect to gain more yards per pass than per run, but I think these numbers kind of show how poorly we're doing on these first down runs. And this is the same kind of result we've seen all year.

There are plenty of problems with this team and organization, but Zorn's playcalling is at least ONE of them. And this is why I don't really get how people can defend said playcalling. What we've seen for really every game this year basically boils down to:

We can't run on first down, yet we insist on doing so.

We get good results when we throw on first down, yet we refuse to do so.

[Oldfan]

I looked at the Carolina loss to see how the first down playcalling broke down. I counted 21 first down plays. Of those, 14 were runs and 7 passes (including two sacks as passing plays).

The game plan going in was to run the ball against Carolina because their defense in prior games was good against the pass and poor against the run. If Jim Zorn had seen your stats in his crystal ball, I'm sure he would have ditched that game plan.

[Rufus T Firefly]

The game plan going in was to run the ball against Carolina because their defense in prior games was good against the pass and poor against the run. If Jim Zorn had seen your stats in his crystal ball, I'm sure he would have ditched that game plan.

I thought it was obvious, but apparently not. The PROBLEM I was pointing to is that Zorn's in-game adjustments always seem to be to go away from what is working, and go more heavily to what ISN'T working.

In the first half of the Carolina game, the running game proved completely inept, as it has really all year. The one sustained drive occured when we started throwing on first down, and it ended when we went back to running on first down.

Zorn's reaction to this was to come out in the second half and run on first down twice as often as we threw.

BTW, Carolina had their best run defense DB (Chris Harris) play for the first time this year in the Washington game. As well as getting starting LB Na'il Diggs back healthy for the first time. And, apart from those injuries, the main cause of their ranking so low in rush defense was getting torched by the league's best rushing offense (Dallas). A smarter coach might have factored those things into the equation.