The Rules Of Overtime Need To Change

[tshile]

No, it said from 94-97 it was 55.9. Is that all time. Read the link.

yeah

after they changed the OT rules the last time, the % went up.

and people here want to change the rules again.

"29% of the time the team that wins the toss drives down and scores without the other team touching the ball. Overall, however, the coin toss winner only wins 52% of the time. It seems fair but these numbers are somewhat misleading because in 1994 a rule changed moved the kickoff back 5 yards to the 30 yard line (those numbers were based on data from 1973-2003). Since then, it's been about 60%. Prior to the rule change, the coin toss had no predictive value for deciding who would eventually win the game. Since 1994, the coin flip winner has a clear advantage"

which is why clayton says:

"Moving kickoffs from the 30 to the 35-yard line would help and I'd be in favor of doing that.", but is against mandating a 2 posession game.

that 60% factor also is just who wins - not who wins on the first drive. And if you're arguing about the coin toss, then please use the % that win on the first drive - because after that your argument is moot.

In fact, there is an argument for the fac tthat the loser of the coin toss has the advantage.

You start eh oposing team on the 20 (kick it out of the endzone), and stop them in 3 plays, they have to punt from at least the 29. a 45 yard punt (50 yards + 5 yard return) puts the loser at 26, which is better field position (all-be-it only by 6 yards). With a better return you could start around the 50.

The point I'm making is that anyone can use statistics and numbers to make their point. Its all about using the right statistics. You're using 60%+ (as of recently) to say that the team that winst he toss wins the game. When in reality, less than 30% win on the first drive - the drive the coin toss has an affect on.

[DixieFlatline]

All time' date=' the winner of the coin toss wins 55 percent of the time. However, this does not mean that the team scores on the first drive necessarily.

[/quote']

Exactly. I'm glad I didn't have to read the whole thread before seeing this point. I'd like to see the % where the winner of the coin toss won it on the first drive. I bet its a much smaller number.

edit: just saw the last post.....29% win on the first drive. I can live with that.

And someone earlier said the game should be set up like the first 4 quarters where each team has an equal chance to win. But nothing guarantees that each team has the same number of possessions in regular time.

[BuddyLeeGhostHunter]

Anyone remember Hassleback in the playoff game against Green Bay?

After winning toss: "We want the ball and we're gonna score!"

Yeah, right...:rotflmao:

[tshile]

Lol, I'd love to be able to bench 280.

I see what you're saying, but the defense isn't always out there at the end of the 4th and then again at the beginning of overtime. So while that's a good analogy, its not always true.

yeah i know

i was referencing last night as the example.

you could also say that if an offense drives down the field and ties with a TD, then gest the ball in OT, they have all the momentum swinging their way.

the bottom line is there are a lot of factors that determine who wins the game in OT - the coin toss is not one of the major ones.

[JohnLockesGhost]

which is why clayton says:

"Moving kickoffs from the 30 to the 35-yard line would help and I'd be in favor of doing that.", but is against mandating a 2 posession game.

that 60% factor also is just who wins - not who wins on the first drive. And if you're arguing about the coin toss, then please use the % that win on the first drive - because after that your argument is moot.

No it's not. If I don't score on my first drive and punt, then the other team has to punt and I finally score on my second drive, that's still two offensive possessions against one. I'd rather have two.

Sudden Death doesn't work for football. It works great for hockey and great for soccer because they're low scoring and have possession that is contantly in flux.

I've always said just have them play a fifth quarter, but I also like the idea of having sudden death if one team gains a four point or better lead on the other.

[BuryYourDuke]

college OT=Fair. NFL OT=Luck. Don't give me the crap about the defense has a chance to stop them. They've already played 4 quarters. Both defenses are gassed.

[Bang]

Since 1974 there have been 334 overtime games in both regular and postseason.

128 of them have been won on the first possession.

38%

Oh yeah, this is WAY out of whack. Change it immediately.

The stat link is

http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_11_08_04.html up to 2003, and then for 2004-present I used a pen and paper.. hard to link to that, but pretty basic math.

By the by, remember last year when the Cardinals blocked the Cowboys punt and scored with it in overtime?

They should have just given the Cowboys another chance to tie, right?

No, they should have made the Cowboys kick off to the Cards after that.

I mean damn, how fair is it when one team gets a chance to block a punt and score and the other team doesn't?

~Bang

[ACW]

Make it like college.

And what IS "prevent defense"? Shouldn't EVERY team try to prevent points with their D? :whoknows:

EDIT: Bang, bad example. Dallas had the first possession.

Each team has one possession. If it's still tied, THEN sudden death.

[tshile]

No it's not. If I don't score on my first drive and punt, then the other team has to punt and I finally score on my second drive, that's still two offensive possessions against one. I'd rather have two.

Sudden Death doesn't work for football. It works great for hockey and great for soccer because they're low scoring and have possession that is contantly in flux.

I've always said just have them play a fifth quarter, but I also like the idea of having sudden death if one team gains a four point or better lead on the other.

what?

sorry, there's an obvious fundamental difference in the opinion of what football is.

football is not 'fair', its about being the best and the toughest. its about outplaying your oponents. if the other team gets the ball, punts, and you get the ball and don't score - thent hats yoru fault, and you have noone to blame but yourself.

you espeically can't turn around and blaim a frekin coin toss on it.

there are no rules about equal # of possessions, or lengths of possession, or time of possession in the regular play. why should there be for OT? In fact... TOP is a battle, one in which the person who has the most TOP usually wins the game... its a battle many coachs pride themselves on when they win it.

its football. its the way its always been. And statics show that 71% of the time getting the ball once isn't enough. So then a coin toss doesn't matter. Only 55% of the time (all time) does getting it first matter in the long run.

You want something more fair than that, in a sport that isn't about being fair?

give me a break. you're argument is falling apart the more you make it. we show the stat of the first drive being the game winning drive and the best you can come up with is the fact that if the other team (who losses the toss) doesn't score whent hey get the ball, that the team that wins the toss is at an unfair advantage because they get the ball twice?

lol...

[tshile]

Make it like college.

And what IS "prevent defense"? Shouldn't EVERY team try to prevent points with their D? :whoknows:

no... prevent defense is arguably the worse defense ever.

its basically rush as few at the passwer as possible, and drop everyone else back. give them the 5-8 yard plays, but nothing over 10.

its designed to prevent 40 yard pass plays with 20 seconds left the game.

what its not designed to do is stop drives (i'll take 8 yards /play for my offense all day every day). the titans used it to stop drives (OT), and it was a terrible decision. especially since their DB's bit on Ben's pump fakes every frekin time.

[ACW]

no... prevent defense is arguably the worse defense ever.

its basically rush as few at the passwer as possible, and drop everyone else back. give them the 5-8 yard plays, but nothing over 10.

its designed to prevent 40 yard pass plays with 20 seconds left the game.

what its not designed to do is stop drives (i'll take 8 yards /play for my offense all day every day). the titans used it to stop drives (OT), and it was a terrible decision. especially since their DB's bit on Ben's pump fakes every frekin time.

Wow, that IS terrible. Yeah, you prevent the deep ball, but keep giving up first downs. At BEST, you give them an FG.

[tshile]

Wow, that IS terrible. Yeah, you prevent the deep ball, but keep giving up first downs. At BEST, you give them an FG.

right

when there's 20 seconds left, and the other team hast he ball on their 20, its fine.

when there's a minute forty left, and they have 3 time outs, it gives them a chance to go all the way down the field.

the titans played prevent defense with 1:30 (i think) left, the steelers had all 3 time outs, and the game was tied.

even the people announcing the game were like 'wtf is tennesee doing?'.

the steelers just threw underneath passes all the way down the field. infact the oen to ward was an underneath pass, that turned into a fumble when he tried to turn it into a TD with a run after the catch. had he simple sat down after he caught the ball (he was open, and could have), they would have won the game in regulation with a fieldgoal.

[Bang]

Right, because the NFL arbitrarily makes the game over after a coin flip and one possession it's a grown men's game, only after 4 quarters are played where is a game for young underage women. :laugh:

You'd have a point if the team winning the toss goes right down and scores 75% of the time.

But they don't. Not even close.

Because grown men go out there and play defense and stop the other team 62% of the time since 1974.

38% of all OT games have been won on the first possession. This is a definite imbalance. The stat favors the defense, and proves the current rules offer plenty of fair opportunities to win in overtime.

Maybe to even it out, we should give the team winning the toss 6 downs before they have to punt. Maybe we should let them start from the fifty so the defense doesn't have such a lopsided advantage (which by the numbers they clearly have). Maybe then we'd have a more equal number of teams winning on the first possession then we do.

To the TN game last night,, they did lay off but in the OT when they came with a blitz, Ben made them pay for it. They brought 6 once, and Ben flipped it out to Ward for a drive-sustaining first down.

Fact- The Steelers stepped up and won the game with smart play by their QB.

Fact- The Titans didn't.

~Bang

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I don't mind the current rules, but I also would be fine with a standard time limit that is played all the way through. I'm not sure of the impact this would have on TV scheduling (since you're adding another period of play instead of potentially just one drive) but it certainly simulates the regulation period as closely as possible...which I assume should be the objective.

[bobzmuda]

Overtime should be a best of 5 field goals from 50 yards out.

[Bang]

EDIT: Bang, bad example. Dallas had the first possession.

Not a bad example. to my knowledge, they didn't give the ball to Dallas for their try to tie after the Redskins won. The Redskins intercepted a pass to get the ball.. in other words, they stepped up on defense in OT and did something to win the game.

Sudden death means sudden death, whether it's in minute 13 of OT or on the opening kickoff.

My argument is not about how many times a team possesses the ball. My argument is that defense is just as much a part of the game as offense. Changing the rules to save a defense that has failed is anti-football, IMO.

If you don't get the ball, make a stop and take it. If you can't, hit the showers.

~Bang

[tshile]

...The stat favors the defense, and proves the current rules offer plenty of fair opportunities to win in overtime.

exactly.

infact, lets look at the game last night.

you have 2 of the best defenses in football, and 2 average offenses (we're not talking about the cardinals or patriots here).

in fact, there had only been 2 TD's the whole game.

tennessee changed their defense philosophy... which (imo) was the reason they lost.

now maybe they ahd a reason (their defense was really tired...?), but you can't argue that when they played aggressive defense pit couldn't do anything with the ball. and when they played prevent (the drive that tied, the drive that almost won it for the steelers, and the OT drive that did win it) they got beat.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Since 1974 there have been 334 overtime games in both regular and postseason.

128 of them have been won on the first possession.

38%

Oh yeah, this is WAY out of whack. Change it immediately.

The stat link is

http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_11_08_04.html up to 2003, and then for 2004-present I used a pen and paper.. hard to link to that, but pretty basic math.

By the by, remember last year when the Cardinals blocked the Cowboys punt and scored with it in overtime?

They should have just given the Cowboys another chance to tie, right?

No, they should have made the Cowboys kick off to the Cards after that.

I mean damn, how fair is it when one team gets a chance to block a punt and score and the other team doesn't?

~Bang

I don't understand...you just proved that almost 2 out of every 5 OT games is won on the first possession and that doesn't seem high to you? I realize it's not as high as the one poster stated (but he was just pulling stats out of his you-know-what).

My point isn't that we should grant the other team with a "fair-ups" possession. It's that we completely change the dynamic of the game that was just played for 4 quarters. The clock becomes irrelevant and you simply have to play to get to the 30 yard line.

I'd love it if they just played a 5th period. Play all 15 minutes, give both teams 2 timeouts and one challenge, and see what the score is at the end. That is simulating true NFL conditions more than anything else. I would HATE it if they implemented some NCAA-esque OT or if they just blindly gave the team that lost the toss the ball no matter what. But playing a 5th "quarter" would be the best option because you're not changing up anything for the players or coaches.

[JohnLockesGhost]

there are no rules about equal # of possessions, or lengths of possession, or time of possession in the regular play. why should there be for OT? In fact... TOP is a battle, one in which the person who has the most TOP usually wins the game... its a battle many coachs pride themselves on when they win it.

its football. its the way its always been. And statics show that 71% of the time getting the ball once isn't enough. So then a coin toss doesn't matter. Only 55% of the time (all time) does getting it first matter in the long run.

You want something more fair than that, in a sport that isn't about being fair?

give me a break. you're argument is falling apart the more you make it. we show the stat of the first drive being the game winning drive and the best you can come up with is the fact that if the other team (who losses the toss) doesn't score whent hey get the ball, that the team that wins the toss is at an unfair advantage because they get the ball twice?

Your response is rather incoherent. Are you really conceding that the rules are unfair but that's ok because football is unfair? Interesting argument.

BTW, let me reiterate what I think would make a good OT system. After the coin flip, both teams play a full fifteen minute quarter unless one team gains a four-point advantage on the other. If that happens the game would end immediately.

I really said nothing about equal possessions or the college system, which I hate probably more than the pro system.

[Bang]

Playing a fifth quarter sounds alright, but in truth it's not fair to both teams playing. If you have to play a whole extra quarter, it takes a lot out of your team. It's 25% of an entire game. Considering that fatigue increases injury risk, it's too much to ask of them.

Lets say it's Sunday and you play again on Thursday.

Not going to work. It's one thing if folks want to argue that the OT rules make it unfair for a team during that game, but to make it so it is unfair to them for the following game is too much.

TD< "almost 2" is 1.

~Bang

[JohnLockesGhost]

Overtime should be a best of 5 field goals from 50 yards out.

Haha.

That does bring up a good point about the pro-football OT system. Whether you like it or not, they're still playing football with all the special team stuff, unlike the college system, which does sort of resemble a shoot-out.

[tshile]

My argument is not about how many times a team possesses the ball. My argument is that defense is just as much a part of the game as offense. Changing the rules to save a defense that has failed is anti-football, IMO.

If you don't get the ball, make a stop and take it. If you can't, hit the showers.

Agreed. Special teams as well. The current system uses all 3 aspects, and puts heavy pressure on them as well.

If you get the coin toss, you need a good return, a good drive, and either a good ST field goal, or a TD.

If you lose the coin toss, you need good coverage, a good D stop.

Its almost as though the people arguing against the current rules are putting out there that the offense is the only important part...

Your response is rather incoherent. Are you really conceding that the rules are unfair but that's ok because football is unfair? Interesting argument.

eh, i see what you mean. My argument is giving teh team equal possessions, isn't 'fair'. If you think it is 'fair', then you don't understand football.

the defense is as important as the offense, and you shouldn't be given a second shot if your defense fails to come out on top. which is basically what you're doing if the team that wins the toss scores on the opening drive, and then you give the ball to the other team and give them a chance. you're syaing 'hey, football is only fair if you both get the ball'. I disagree... if its 'unfair' to put as much weight on the defense as the offense, then i guess life is tough.

[Bang]

Haha.

That does bring up a good point about the pro-football OT system. Whether you like it or not, they're still playing football with all the special team stuff, unlike the college system, which does sort of resemble a shoot-out.

And that resembles.... Futbol.

Oh NO!

~Bang

[Larry Brown #43]

Since 1974 there have been 334 overtime games in both regular and postseason.

128 of them have been won on the first possession.

38%

Oh yeah, this is WAY out of whack. Change it immediately.

But to me this doesn’t matter. The problem is the coin-toss winner always has a chance to have an “extra” possession, whereas the team that loses the toss never has that luxury. If the coin-toss winning team scores on its second possession, then they had two possessions, while the other team only had one.

In regulation, each team receives one kickoff to start a half, but no such consideration is made for OT.

By the by, remember last year when the Cardinals blocked the Cowboys punt and scored with it in overtime?

They should have just given the Cowboys another chance to tie, right?

No, they should have made the Cowboys kick off to the Cards after that.

I mean damn, how fair is it when one team gets a chance to block a punt and score and the other team doesn't?

In that situation, the Cardinals would essentially forfeit their OT possession, because they don’t need it. Just like the home team doesn’t bother to bat in the bottom of the ninth if they’re ahead, because they’ve already won the game.

[The Rook]

While the present system may not "feel" fair, I think it is the least of all evils.

Also, consider this, I wonder about the % of how many games are won/lost in the last drive of regulation? Isn't this analagous to the first drive in OT? The defense may have the opportunity to make the stop to win and the offense may have the opportunity to score and win. Do your job and earn the win.

:helmet: The Rook