ES: finishing up with the Football Outsiders

[themurf]

photo by Brian Murphy

Last week we brought you part one of our conversation with Doug Farrar, who authored the Washington Redskins chapter of the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. Most of our conversation in part one centered on Jason Campbell and the quarterback situation, but that wasn’t all we talked about. In part two, we focused more on the rest of the offense and what to expect in 2009.

One of the things that really stood out in this year’s Football Outsiders Almanac was just how high the Redskins receivers ranked in dropped passes. When you watch a guy like Braylon Edwards, you notice him dropping a ton of passes. But it was definitely surprising to us to see Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El ranked so high on the list. Were they as bad as the numbers seemed to indicate?

“I think, when you’re talking about dropped passes, it really depends on the offense,” Farrar said. “We don’t want to say that Campbell would automatically be a Hall of Famer if he was in the perfect circumstances. There are things he needs to work on still. One of the things I saw when I watched film was a tendency to bail on a play and not stick with it until its logical ending. Meaning, basically, there are times when he makes a throw before he should. For example, one stat we tracked was he averaged 5.86 per attempt on third and eight or more. That’s obviously not going to get the job done.

“One of the things that separates the great quarterbacks is the ability to stay in the pocket for that extra second or that extra touch they can put on a pass so that the ball is in the perfect location when that receivers turns, with the ball right over his back shoulder,” he continued. “Campbell’s not there yet. I don’t blame him entirely, because this offense is all about time and rhythm and was new to everyone last season. A bulk of the dropped passes were the receivers’ fault, but some of them were Campbell’s fault as well. Yeah, the amount of drops was a problem, but it doesn’t stand out as much as a guy like Edwards or Terrell Owens – where a team has one marquee guy who does it a lot.

“The one thing I’d like to see more of from Campbell and the Redskins offense is him in the shotgun. Last year, Campbell had a DVOA of 9.1 under center and a 35.6 in shotgun,” Farrar said. “And we’re not talking about a small sample size. There were over a hundred shotgun attempts. The Patriots, Chiefs and Cardinals all ran over 50 percent of their offense from the shotgun last year and it would help Campbell a lot. He seems to be able to progress in his reads better when things aren’t so much in his face and he can get a sense of what’s going on down the field.”

We talked about the passing game. Now let’s switch gears and focus on the running game. Do you guys still believe Clinton Portis is one of the league’s elite running backs?

“He is, in my mind, by far the best pass blocking back in the game,” he said. “It’s not even close. He can still catch. He can still run. He led the league in rushing yards through the first eight games last season. But now, because they can’t fix the offensive line, the team has said that Ladell Betts will be the third-down guy. Even though the numbers show Portis was more effective than Betts was on third down. But it’s easier to say you’re addressing the problem by making changes to one position instead of half the offense.

“As far as I’m concerned, Clinton Portis is one of the top 10 running backs in the entire NFL,” Farra said. “There were going to be possible overuse issues, had he stayed healthy. He was on pace for 374 carries, which is a bit much for anyone. And he’s going to be 28, which is when running backs begin to trend downward, for the most part. But to me, he has always been and continues to be, one of the best in the game.”

If you had to put money on just one of the three second-year pass catchers – Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and Fred Davis – succeeding, who you got?

Click here for the full article.

[Oldfan]

Interesting stuff, Brian. Thanks for bringing it to us.

“The one thing I’d like to see more of from Campbell and the Redskins offense is him in the shotgun. Last year, Campbell had a DVOA of 9.1 under center and a 35.6 in shotgun.”

I think Jim Zorn will eventually add more shotgun, but Campbell has to learn the base offense first. His low DVOA in 2008 reflects a QB in the learning phase. That should improve this season. Moreover, the numbers in the gun don't consider the negative impact on the running game.

Farrar's comments about Portis as a receiver baffles me. FO's stat showed Portis with six drops, third in the league as a percentage (17%) and yet somehow he "showed he was more effective than Betts on third down." Having watched them both play, I'd have to say that the numbers are clearly lying to the man.

“The thing about this offense is that you don’t need that one elite receiver to make it go. That’s why I thought the Redskins might have overcompensated by drafting all of those guys."

They drafted three receivers who fit the scheme since we had only one, Cooley.

“Well, Vinny Cerrato has opted not to upgrade that offensive line through the draft, even though it’s cheaper and a more long-term solution”

Vinny is not drafting with the emphasis on need, so he didn't "opt."

[TheLongshot]

Farrar's comments about Portis as a receiver baffles me. FO's stat showed Portis with six drops, third in the league as a percentage (17%) and yet somehow he "showed he was more effective than Betts on third down." Having watched them both play, I'd have to say that the numbers are clearly lying to the man.

Did those drops come on 3rd down? What are his stats on 3rd down? Did he run? Did he go out into a pass pattern? Did he stay in and block? There's a lot of info we just don't have on that.

[Oldfan]

Did those drops come on 3rd down? What are his stats on 3rd down? Did he run? Did he go out into a pass pattern? Did he stay in and block? There's a lot of info we just don't have on that.

If some of those drops didn't occur on third down, it was due to chance -- which supports my conclusion that the numbers are lying.

EDIT: since he's talking about Portis's effectiveness as a receiver, his effectiveness as a blocker or runner is not an issue.

[themurf]

Interesting stuff, Brian. Thanks for bringing it to us.

I think Jim Zorn will eventually add more shotgun, but Campbell has to learn the base offense first. His low DVOA in 2008 reflects a QB in the learning phase. That should improve this season. Moreover, the numbers in the gun don't consider the negative impact on the running game.

Farrar's comments about Portis as a receiver baffles me. FO's stat showed Portis with six drops, third in the league as a percentage (17%) and yet somehow he "showed he was more effective than Betts on third down." Having watched them both play, I'd have to say that the numbers are clearly lying to the man.

Thanks for bringing some intelligent conversation to the table.

I personally tend to think that while Portis is still one of the top 10 backs in the game, that keeping him fresh by using Betts more is a wise move. He's obviously key to any success the team may have this year. That being said, I tend to believe Portis' hands aren't as good as some believe. There are times when he looks like he's already focused upfield because the blocking broke down or whatever and he makes a killer drop on a swing pass to end a drive.

Either way, it's nice to focus on anything other than the Washington Post, the Redskins ticket office and the rest of the nonsense.

[darrelgreenie]

Another nice article Murf

The issues that Football Outsiders points are issues that young offenses have, growing pains.

In year 2:

Zorn's playcalling should improve

there should be fewer drops,

there should be better pass protection,

there should be more equitable rotation of the RBs.

Last year's offense was just a starting point.

[KDawg]

Extremely interesting point on Campbell to the Cardinals. I think he's on the money as well. Campbell has all of the tools, and when allowed to air the ball out he seems to play much better than when he's got to make the quick, short throw.

His style seems to fit an Arizona Cardinals type offense, and it wouldn't hurt to have Q, Fitz, Breaston and perhaps even Early Doucet running routes for him.

All of that said, if allowed to throw the ball, and stray slightly from the conventional type West Coast Offense that Jim Zorn seemed dead set on running last season, I think he can more than succeed here. Plus, the fact that he can vertically stretch the field will allow the short pass to connect more often. On top of that, if a team has to defend against both the short and the long ball, the running game should open a bit more.

[mithong1]

Extremely interesting point on Campbell to the Cardinals. I think he's on the money as well. Campbell has all of the tools, and when allowed to air the ball out he seems to play much better than when he's got to make the quick, short throw.

His style seems to fit an Arizona Cardinals type offense, and it wouldn't hurt to have Q, Fitz, Breaston and perhaps even Early Doucet running routes for him.

All of that said, if allowed to throw the ball, and stray slightly from the conventional type West Coast Offense that Jim Zorn seemed dead set on running last season, I think he can more than succeed here. Plus, the fact that he can vertically stretch the field will allow the short pass to connect more often. On top of that, if a team has to defend against both the short and the long ball, the running game should open a bit more.

campbell doesn't throw a good deep ball though... his deep ball trajectory is way too flat, and thus lacks any consistency

[mithong1]

im praying that JC plays decent enough to get us into the playoffs this year... then i will be really excited to see his 3rd year in the WCO

[KDawg]

campbell doesn't throw a good deep ball though... his deep ball trajectory is way too flat, and thus lacks any consistency

While that has been the case thus far, there are also a couple other factors to consider...

He hasn't had much game situation practice at throwing the deep ball. He's had the handcuffs on him. Every week he seems to get better and better at throwing the deep ball. Sure, he may throw it in practice, but practice, no matter how intense the scrimmage is, is much different than a game situation. For one, no one is going to hit Campbell is practice, in a game the deep ball takes some time to set up and Campbell could be a sitting duck.

The other factor to consider is that by simply throwing the deep ball, teams will have to begin to respect it, which should help our short game and the run game.

All of that said, if Zorn allows Campbell to play that way this season, Campbell needs to take advantage of the opportunity and he needs to connect on some of those deep balls. This is a big year for him as far as being the QB of this football team is concerned, he needs to take advantage and connect on a decent percentage or he will be replaced.

I have a good feeling, though.

[SilkyDiamonds]

Love the way FO presents football in a different decipherable way

Murf getting this interview was AWESOME!!

[bubba9497]

I’ve always thought that quarterback is the one position people hold the least amount of patience, and it’s ironic, because it’s the position in all of sports that requires the most.

I agree with this whole heartedly

[TSO]

I really enjoyed both parts of this interview. Thanks murf.

I like the depth we have at Oline this year, except at Tackle. That is a bit worrisome.

[China]

But now, because they can’t fix the offensive line, the team has said that Ladell Betts will be the third-down guy. Even though the numbers show Portis was more effective than Betts was on third down.

I find this somewhat worrisome. Don't make changes for the sake of making changes, or just so you can say you did something when it doesn't really address the problem. If you want to give Portis a blow, do it on one of the other downs. Keep him in for short yardage or passing downs when he has shown he is more capable than Betts of either picking up the tough yard or making the necessary block to protect Campbell.

[Mahons21]

Extremely interesting point on Campbell to the Cardinals. I think he's on the money as well. Campbell has all of the tools, and when allowed to air the ball out he seems to play much better than when he's got to make the quick, short throw.

His style seems to fit an Arizona Cardinals type offense, and it wouldn't hurt to have Q, Fitz, Breaston and perhaps even Early Doucet running routes for him.

-The problem with that is, in the salary cap era of the NFL you can't afford that amount of talent. While Campbell would certainly benefit from a dominant receiving core, he would no longer have his top 5 RB. Defenses would be more focused on stopping our passing game which might make things much more difficult for Campbell, who up to this point has had the luxury of top back standing behind him that commands the majority of the defenses attention. Personally I don't know if he could, we saw what Jason Campbell's stats were on 3rd down this year(situations where the focus was on Campbell not Portis), and he didn't perform very well, though there obviously were many other contributing factors (o-line, play-calling and etc.)

All of that said, if allowed to throw the ball, and stray slightly from the conventional type West Coast Offense that Jim Zorn seemed dead set on running last season, I think he can more than succeed here. Plus, the fact that he can vertically stretch the field will allow the short pass to connect more often. On top of that, if a team has to defend against both the short and the long ball, the running game should open a bit more.

-We'll see if the deep ball comes along, right now I am certainly not sold on it. From what I can tell Campbell has alot of trouble putting air on the ball, so his deep routes/fade routes tend to be not necessarily inaccurate as much as they are just out of place. He does much better at throwing passes where he can just gun it in to a receiver and doesn't have to get the ball over an outstretched defender

-Hopefully the deep ball does come together, I completely agree if it does that the shorter and intermediate routes will start opening up. I noticed this happening a little bit in the NE, or at least I thought thats what was happening, could have been just better routes/play calling. In addition our running game will open up, which is really what the offense is based on even if we do operate a WCO.