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TwoMinuteWarning: Do Pre-season Records Matter?


darklight1216

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With the third Washington Redskins pre-season game behind us, it is time now to the address the often asked question: "Does pre-season really matter?"

When approached with this question, many of us are quick to point out that the 2008 Detroit Lions were undefeated in the pre-season, but then went on to lose every game in the regular season. Or we may reflect on the Indianapolis Colts generally abysmal pre-seasons despite their consistently high powered regular season records.

With these results in mind, it would seem that the pre-season records ultimately have no effect on a team's win loss record, but is this true?

Two Minute Warning probes this issue in an eleven year study of pre-season records and their corellation to regular season wins.

Click the link for the full article

http://www.twominutewarning.com/doespreseasonmatter.htm

"Can you detect the pattern in this table? More preseason wins = more regular season wins on average! Preseason results do seem to matter...

What could this mean for the Washington Redskins? Two Minute Warnings summarizes:

Prior Year Average Teams (7 to 9 Wins)

This is the group where preseason performance has mattered the most. Three or more exhibition wins and teams have averaged over nine wins in the regular season and reached the magic ten plus level 48% of the time. Less than two preseason wins and it's under seven wins on average and only 21% of such teams have made it to double digit victories.

[Teams] to consider : Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Washington.

Are any of you more interested in the final pre-season game now?

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Are any of you more interested in the final pre-season game now?

No. :cool:

My interest in the final preseasn game revolves completely around seeing how a lot of the 'bubble" players perform (and hopefully NOT seeing any injuries on either team). I don't believe for a second that the Skins winning next week somehow makes it more likely that they'll do better this season.

If the Jags' 4th string QB throws a hail mary TD pass against our 4th string cornerbacks with 12 seconds left and they win the game, it's not gonna weigh on my mind at all. If our team looks absolutely horrid from top to bottom and we lose 52-0, that WILL concern me big-time. However, both count as "losses", and thus both hold the same weight when applied to whatever formula the writers of that article are championing.

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It does and it doesn't matter. I think many teams go out there and give it their all, such as the 2008 detroit lions. Then I think others go out and just work on the fundamentals, such as the 2006 Indy Colts, who went on to win the super bowl. What matters is overall how your team executes. Tonight was very good for our offense. JC moved the ball, threw to multiple receivers, and was protected at the line against a very good defense. Our defense did alright. I wouldn't say they were thrilled, but they got pressure on Brady, forced a couple turnovers, and only allowed two touchdowns to Brady/Moss, one of the most dynamic QB/WR lovers, oops, I mean combos, out there.

So in answer to your question, does preseason matter? Yes. Just not on the statistical stack up that we look at, or the record... the real thing teams are concerned with is are they able to execute the plays, are the coaches able to convey and organize the game plans, and can the team form a bond that is strong enough to last the season... because it's not how strong you start, it's how strong you finish.

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Correlations mean nothing to me. By those statistics, teams that have 3 or more wins still have a better chance of not reaching 10 wins. Additionally wins are not equal to play-off berths.

So to answer your question, no. I am not interested in the result of the last pre-season game, especially since much of the game is played with irrelevant players.

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I wouldnt call any schedule "retarded soft" for a team that went 0-16

Cincinatti, Cleveland, New York, and Buffalo. Two crap teams, one elite team but on the first week when everyone is breaking in and they only barely won, and Buffalo was where all the young guys played. It's about 50/50 for all those games, I'd say.

Too bad they didn't face either 'natti or 'leveland, or else they may have come out 1-15.

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