tex Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) ASPO Meeting in Paris 26th and 27th May 2003 Second International Workshop on Oil Depletion Bush Advisor Matt Simmons who advised Cheney's Energy Task Force confirms Peak Oil is major concern of Bush Administration. Peak Oil symptoms more apparent. Recoverable reserves may be less than hoped. Natural gas shortages may appear in US this year. Hydrogen vastly overrated and not likely to offer solution. The oil bulls and bears are having there second annual meeting. The oil bulls side with surveys saying there is 1.8 trillion barrels of oil left. The bears side with studies showing 1 trillion barrels of oil remain. It doesn't matter really. If the bulls are right oil peaks in the year 2020. If the bears are right world oil peaks and then goes into steep decline in 2010. A whole 10 year difference. Big hairy deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 ASPO ergo Iraq. c.f. UNSCR 1483 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefhogskin48 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 ASF, what are your thoughts on alternative energy becoming available in the near future (oe the next 20 yrs)? Is it even feasible, or merely a pipe dream? Like a reformed addict, it would be nice if oil prices didn't enter our thought process for foreign relations some day. Sometimes I wish we had never gotten involved in the Middle East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Originally posted by chiefhogskin48 ASF, what are your thoughts on alternative energy becoming available in the near future (oe the next 20 yrs)? Is it even feasible, or merely a pipe dream? Like a reformed addict, it would be nice if oil prices didn't enter our thought process for foreign relations some day. Sometimes I wish we had never gotten involved in the Middle East. My understanding is that fuel cells have a lot of mid-term potential. In the short-term the technology is expensive, but could be more affordable through higher volume (economies of scale). Unfortunately, that's a chicken-and-egg problem, since it's hard to build volume when the technology is expensive. Long-term, the problem is that fuel-cells require energy to extract their source hydrogen fuel, so -- as with electric cars -- some of their efficiency is illusory (energy is required for electric plants or for hydrogen extraction). Nonetheless, it appears fuel cells are still potentially an improvement over current gas-powered technology in terms of both efficiency and pollution. To me, the long-term solution is literally staring us in the face. The perpetual motion machine known as the earth is possible only because of the continual supplemental energy from the sun. Solar energy seems the obvious (and perhaps only) long-term solution, in the absence of some miracle like cold fusion. Unfortunately, the stupidity, greed and cowardice of our political leaders will force us through numerous wars over oil that risk mutating into unending religious wars, instead of just facing the energy challenge honestly and early. I figure by the time it's all done, we will have a crusades-style worldwide clash of civilizations, a completely fascist USA, and ultimately a worldwide economic collapse and extended depression. With the collapse of world economies, it will be that much harder to develop new energy technologies. The problem is that most of the billions of people who will die or face extreme hardship over the next 100 years aren't major campaign contributors to the current Republican and Democratic parties. Rotten luck, that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishhead Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 ASF, What do you think about the whole "make light oil out of chicken guts and other stuff" thing? I read about it in Discover magazine a while back, also, I think someone posted about it on here once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince62 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 sounds like your dream contains its own solution....what's to fret over? here comes the sun king....everybody's happy....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefhogskin48 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Originally posted by Atlanta Skins Fan Unfortunately, the stupidity, greed and cowardice of our political leaders will force us through numerous wars over oil that risk mutating into unending religious wars, instead of just facing the energy challenge honestly and early. I figure by the time it's all done, we will have a crusades-style worldwide clash of civilizations, a completely fascist USA, and ultimately a worldwide economic collapse and extended depression. With the collapse of world economies, it will be that much harder to develop new energy technologies. The problem is that most of the billions of people who will die or face extreme hardship over the next 100 years aren't major campaign contributors to the current Republican and Democratic parties. Rotten luck, that. Your post was wonderfully enlightening up until the above passage. You gotta have some faith in humanity, ASF. Otherwise, it'll get depressing thinking of all the doomsday scenarios. Remember, most people 30 yrs ago thought the earth would be vaporized by now.... but we're still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Originally posted by phishhead What do you think about the whole "make light oil out of chicken guts and other stuff" thing? I read about it in Discover magazine a while back, also, I think someone posted about it on here once. It's intriguing, but I know as little as you do about it. I support research into any alternative fuels backed by credible science. My bias, however, is toward technologies that minimize the role of finite fuel sources and minimize extraction costs. The problem with wood, coal, petroleum and chicken guts is that you still need "stuff" at the beginning of the chain, and then you need to extract energy from the "stuff". Solar energy is almost unlimited, arrives free, and arrives as energy itself (not trapped potential energy). Extraction cost is limited mainly to the one-time manufacture cost of solar arrays. Such arrays seem highly improvable via new collection technologies, economies of scale in manufacturing, Moore's Law, etc. My gut tells me that today's solar-energy technology is like the IBM mainframes of the 1950s. Pretty impressive, but just a glimmer of the potential power and efficiency to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince62 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 pebble bed nucs...... continued transformation from heavy industrial to service economy change in lifestyle increased productivity and end-to-end efficiency improvements btw...the materials for capturing solar energy come from someplace...and they must be manufactured....and they are eventually disposed of.....and there are byproducts.....and they also take up space...as do the storage technologies...as do transmission technologies.....it's a system not a point solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 I should mention that I have some firsthand experience in solar technology. My father spent most of the last 25 years of his career as one of the senior officials in U.S. "big science", serving three of the biggest national organizations in that field. That background, combined with the energy crisis of the 1970s and an interest in innovation led him to design and build a solar home in the late 1970s. This home in Virginia, which I helped him build, employed both a passive solar design and active solar collector panels. The panels were not solar-electric (photovoltaic) but rather solar-air systems: they heated air that was pushed into a large "rock box" energy storage room in the basement, via a duct that heated hot water via a heat-exchange manifold (the reverse of a radiator). The problem was that this design was very embryonic in conception, and his implementation suffered from some errors in design and logic circuitry. The rock box ended up being somewhat too large, which reduced its efficiency. The logic circuitry sometimes failed and pushed cold air on freezing, cloudy days -- twice flooding the basement when the heat-exchanger manifold froze. But, mostly, to his great credit, the system worked as promised. Then gas prices plummeted in the 1980s. He sold the house after a divorce in 1986, and the new owner removed the panels for aesthetic reasons and because he didn't care about free energy. This is the problem facing solar energy today: most innovation is left to individuals and tiny companies (who are both undercapitalized), and the resulting solutions must compete with today's low energy prices. There's no systemic incentive or funding to do the brute-force work of developing efficient solar-energy systems. It will take a world crisis to create the incentive, and if that crisis is too massive, the economy may be too weak to drive the required high R&D and transition costs. If anyone is interested, I found a DOE review of the performance and reliability of active solar heating systems. The review notes that such systems peaked in the "late 1970s through the middle 1980s" in response to the energy crisis. For a broader review of alternative energy technology and programs, see the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy web site. For more on fuel cells, see The Online Fuel Cell Information Center and this more business-focused Fortune magazine article: The Coming Hydrogen Economy. Finally, regarding personal transportation, I'm interested in a radical shift in vehicle/roadway technology that would combine personal automobiles with the efficiencies of mass transit like subways and cable cars. I love the freedom and independent mobility of cars, but at the same time I recognize that they burn fuel, must carry fuel, pollute, are more dangerous than they need to be, cause excessive rush-hour delays, and are inefficient in terms of the attention of the driver (many drivers drive two hours a day). My desire is for a system where at least some of the energy is supplied by the roadway (much like subways and cable cars) and parking areas, and at least some road lanes offer the potential for automated guidance (enabling more efficient car throughput and allowing drivers to relax and read, as on commuter trains). This is a massive paradigm shift, but one that could preserve the "independent driver" freedom that I love, while phasing in a kind of efficient public transportation that people might accept and actually like. (Who wouldn't trade two tense hours of fighting gridlock every day, for two relaxing hours reading a book or watching TV?) I figure George Bush will be proposing this system any day now. Obviously if such a solution were ever realized, it would come first from a socialist country (such as in Europe) or a country like Japan that is more accustomed to government intervention in industries. Perhaps it's economically unviable. But it's interesting to consider conceptually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince62 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 interesting... we'll dispense with the conflicts between automated guidance and privacy: a debate that is developing as we speak your hoped for future will entail greater changes in many areas, not just private/public transportation, will it not? how, for instance, will solar technologies be built to accomodate densely populated urban environments? who will pay? is the model going to be a point solution or a centralized solution? if I build a home 1 year after you install a solar system in your home that impacts the efficiency of your solar collector, am I liable? will a common solution work at all latitudes? will/would you favor (anticipating the Kalifornia-like inevitable) mandatory building codes that require solar technologies in private/public residencies? why must every "progressive" change issue from a crisis? public transportation is nice (I use it extensively)....until it doesn't reach a place I want to go to......or it's after midnight.....or I have a heavy load to transport........or it's a weekend..........or it concentrates the fatalities in an accident...or it passes through my neighborhood (one reason it was voted down, for better or for worse, in Virginia Beach)....or it brings crime to my neighborhood (one reason it was voted against in Georgetown)....or my taxes raise to pay for a service I don't use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomar Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Butter churning and meat salting old skool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince62 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 niope....it's called freedom....including the freedom to chose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted June 3, 2003 Share Posted June 3, 2003 The problem is that most of the billions of people who will die or face extreme hardship over the next 100 years aren't major campaign contributors to the current Republican and Democratic parties. Rotten luck, that. :laugh: :laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiggoDrill Posted June 3, 2003 Share Posted June 3, 2003 Originally posted by fansince62 interesting... we'll dispense with the conflicts between automated guidance and privacy: a debate that is developing as we speak your hoped for future will entail greater changes in many areas, not just private/public transportation, will it not? how, for instance, will solar technologies be built to accomodate densely populated urban environments? who will pay? is the model going to be a point solution or a centralized solution? if I build a home 1 year after you install a solar system in your home that impacts the efficiency of your solar collector, am I liable? will a common solution work at all latitudes? will/would you favor (anticipating the Kalifornia-like inevitable) mandatory building codes that require solar technologies in private/public residencies? why must every "progressive" change issue from a crisis? public transportation is nice (I use it extensively)....until it doesn't reach a place I want to go to......or it's after midnight.....or I have a heavy load to transport........or it's a weekend..........or it concentrates the fatalities in an accident...or it passes through my neighborhood (one reason it was voted down, for better or for worse, in Virginia Beach)....or it brings crime to my neighborhood (one reason it was voted against in Georgetown)....or my taxes raise to pay for a service I don't use You're an economist at heart, fansince. Use your imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince62 Posted June 3, 2003 Share Posted June 3, 2003 RD...my point was that ASF was ignoring the entire set of systemic resource requirements; that his assessment of paradigm change was correct, but didn't address some very basic issues........and that the simplistic "enjoy two hours of reading vice sitting in traffic" was one-sided to the extent that it ignored other, non-internalized costs or external diseconomies attendant to public transportation...... hey...aren't you supposed to be teaching the rest of us about why the Europeans want to devalue the Euro relative to the dollar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tex Posted June 4, 2003 Author Share Posted June 4, 2003 Originally posted by Atlanta Skins Fan ASPO ergo Iraq. c.f. UNSCR 1483 Righto ASF. Their oil will soon flow like water, for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince62 Posted June 4, 2003 Share Posted June 4, 2003 all good things must come to an end!!!! all the more reason to ensure 2nd amendment rights remain viable, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted October 10, 2009 Share Posted October 10, 2009 The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)ASPO Meeting in Paris 26th and 27th May 2003 Second International Workshop on Oil Depletion Bush Advisor Matt Simmons who advised Cheney's Energy Task Force confirms Peak Oil is major concern of Bush Administration. Peak Oil symptoms more apparent. Recoverable reserves may be less than hoped. Natural gas shortages may appear in US this year. Hydrogen vastly overrated and not likely to offer solution. The oil bulls and bears are having there second annual meeting. The oil bulls side with surveys saying there is 1.8 trillion barrels of oil left. The bears side with studies showing 1 trillion barrels of oil remain. It doesn't matter really. If the bulls are right oil peaks in the year 2020. If the bears are right world oil peaks and then goes into steep decline in 2010. A whole 10 year difference. Big hairy deal. Just wondered how that theory looks now? :saber: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/10/business/energy-environment/10gas.html?_r=2&hp New Way to Tap Gas May Expand Global Supplies http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2009/09/03/Worlds-deepest-well-taps-giant-oil-find-in-the-US-Gulf-of-Mexico/UPI-22801252018451/ World's deepest well taps giant oil find in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1212202/.html BG trumpets 'supergiant' oil find off Brazillian coast http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/6653999.html MAMMOTH DISCOVERY Companies bet big on South Texas gas find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aREDSKIN Posted October 10, 2009 Share Posted October 10, 2009 There's plenty of oil around the world the question & problem remains, right now, is how to efficiently extract it from it's location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted October 10, 2009 Share Posted October 10, 2009 There's plenty of oil around the world the question & problem remains, right now, is how to efficiently extract it from it's location. Technology is a wonderful thing that has improved both extraction and prospecting....some people solve problems,others cling to fallacies and get in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted October 10, 2009 Share Posted October 10, 2009 I'm still waiting for my cheap, stolen Iraqi oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thiebear Posted October 10, 2009 Share Posted October 10, 2009 We have enough 3,736,320 ish barrels crude oil (all products) imported each year. shale, United States, which is thought to have 1.5-2.6 trillion barrels bakken(sp) Reserve numbers in the billions of barrels, So at current consumption of US Oil divided into US Oil Availabe = 1,000,000,000,000 / 5,000,000 a year = 200,000 years 200,000 years from now we should be traveling on brain power.. (i'll still be walking) I doubt we'll be on oil that long.. i give us 10 years for all new cars available. hybrid everywhere Fuel Cell for a couple years Electric all over Then theres the super deep wells.. Its Tupi field is thought to hold up to 30billion barrels, though how much of that is recoverable is uncertain. These finds are an indication that Brazil's reserves could potentially rival the Middle Eastern states' fields. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1212202/.html#ixzz0TXyZk6Qa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjinhan Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Technology is a wonderful thing that has improved both extraction and prospecting....some people solve problems,others cling to fallacies and get in the way. the correct answer to all these concerns is this $$$$$$$$$ Just more money... if people are willing to pay for $120 for bbl of oil and $10-12 for MSCF of natural gas... we will have lot more activities in the oil and gas industry to keep up with demand... now if people dont want to cut back on their use but still want $50 oil and $4 gas.. then yes the end is coming sooner than you think... cause like most industries.. you need to make money to stay in business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellis Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 All the Oil that has been pumped out of the ground in the last few centuries would not even fill Lake Tahoe. Believing there is a shortage is insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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