Newsweek: What a McCain win would look like

[Toe Jam]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/165657/page/1

The conventional wisdom, which I share, is that Barack Obama will win this election, perhaps by a healthy margin. But Democrats are nervous wrecks; they're having nightmares that defeat will be snatched from the jaws of victory. To add to their misery (and guard against complacency), here's how that horror film could play out.

In the end, the problem was the LIVs. That's short for "low-information voters," the three fifths of the electorate that shows up once every four years to vote for president but mostly hates politics. These are the 75 million folks who didn't vote in the primaries. They don't read newsmagazines or newspapers, don't watch any cable news and don't cast their ballots early. Their allegiance to a candidate is as easily shed as a T shirt. Several million moved to Obama through September and October; they'd heard he handled himself well in the debates. Then, in the last week, the LIVs swung back to the default choice: John McCain. Some had good reasons other than the color of Obama's skin to desert him; many more did not. In October, a study by the Associated Press estimated that Obama's race would cost him 6 percent. The percentage was smaller, but still enough to give the presidency to McCain.

Obama's field organization was superb, so it was no surprise that most of the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters came home to the Democrats; the person-to-person voter contact (and significant resentment about the selection of Sarah Palin) made a big difference. But the huge swath of more than 30 million independents broke heavily for McCain. By piling up overwhelming margins in big blue states like California, New York and Illinois, Obama carried the popular vote, but he ended up like Al Gore in 2000—denied admission to the Electoral College.

The first ominous sign was largely missed amid the Demo-cratic euphoria after Obama outclassed McCain on the financial crisis. While most of the country moved toward the Democratic nominee in early October, Ohio did not. Obama could never close the sale there. In a repeat of the Democratic primary, his big totals coming out of Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) weren't enough to offset larger-than-expected losses in the suburbs around Cincinnati and Columbus.

Florida had looked promising for Obama for a time, but his weakness among seniors caught up with him. One national poll from early October should have been a warning: it showed him up by 7 overall, but down 14 among those older than 65. And Sarah Silverman's "Great Schlep" fell short. Obama easily carried the Jewish vote, but not with the 75 percent won by Gore and John Kerry. As it turned out, the real problem wasn't south Florida, where Hispanics came in surprisingly well for Obama. It was erosion in the critical I-4 corridor near Tampa and in the Panhandle, where the astonishing Republican margins among whites could be attributed only to race.

Obama shifted New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada from red to blue. But there was a reason Virginia hadn't gone Democratic since 1964. The transformation of the northern part of the state couldn't overcome a huge McCain margin among whites farther south. They weren't the racists of their parents' generation, but they weren't quite ready to vote for the unthinkable, either.

As McCain closed the gap in the last week with his message on taxes and fear of another terrorist attack, the race came down to New Hampshire (which went for Kerry in 2004) and Colorado (which went for President Bush). Obama needed one of them to get to 270 electoral votes. New Hampshire's fabled independents had long had a soft spot for McCain in GOP primaries, and they delivered for him again. Colorado, after flirting with Obama, simply reverted to form, with Palin's frontier image helping a bit.

Obama had wired every college campus in the country, and he enjoyed great enthusiasm among politically engaged young people. But less-engaged students told reporters the day after the election that they had meant to vote for Obama but were "too busy." History held: young people once again voted in lower percentages than their elders. Waiting for them turned out to be like waiting for Godot.

The Obama margin among young voters was underestimated a little in some polls because so many 18- to 24-year-olds use only cell phones. But the deeper failure of the polling came from methodology that could not properly account for the nine in 10 voters who won't answer a polltaker's questions. With ceaseless robo-calls and as many as 15 live calls from campaigns to each household in a swing state, even fewer people than normal took time in the last two weeks to respond. Who were the voters slamming down the phone? Disproportionately for McCain. In rebuffing pollsters, they skewed the sample toward Obama, inflating his "support

At the start of the campaign season NEWSWEEK asked, "Is America Ready" for a black president? The answer: only if Obama proved close to a flawless candidate, and even then, we won't know for sure until Election Day. That doesn't mean Obama lost because all, or even most, McCain voters allowed race to be a factor. But enough did to change the outcome.

Democrats are despairing over the results, fearing they might never view their country in the same light again. Even many Republicans are subdued at the news of McCain's victory. Having expected him to lose, they know the GOP has now completed a sorry transition from the party of Lincoln to the party of cynicism. McCain, they're reasoning, might prove a fine president, but it shouldn't have happened like this.

It probably won't. Millions of people in the rest of the world assume that Barack Obama cannot be elected because he is black. They assume that the original sin of American history—enshrined in our Constitution—cannot be transcended. I go into next week's election with a different assumption—that the common sense and decency of the American people will prove the skeptics wrong.

[88Comrade2000]

Well, Mccain won't win CO and probably will lose VA.

They have nothing to worry about. They can call the election a little after 8pm for Obama.

Hell, Obama can declare victory before Mccain concedes.

[hokie4redskins]

It was erosion in the critical I-4 corridor near Tampa and in the Panhandle, where the astonishing Republican margins among whites could be attributed only to race.

Let me get this straight:

White Republicans not voting for Obama are racists?

Wouldn't they be voting against Obama because he's a Democrat?

If there's any "racism" in this election, it's the white Democrats not voting for a Democratic candidate simply because he's black.

This is so stupid. Democrats should only be accusing themselves of racism if Obama loses.

[twa]

This is so stupid. Democrats should only be accusing themselves of racism if Obama loses.

They already have...Even Bill Clinton ,the first black pres, is a racist now.

[expensivegift]

According to everyone if you don't vote for Obama you are racist.

[Barney B]

Republicans will try to subtly encourage Democrats to stay home on election day, claiming that Obama is certain to win in a landslide. The dem's had better not listen.

No one has seen yet what the "Bradley Effect" could mean in a presidential election, but if it could be responsible for a 12-point swing in liberal New York City, it might well be a huge influence this time around in places like Ohio, Iowa and Colorado. Also, although younger voters are helping to drive up Obama's poll numbers, we've seen that they can't be counted on to vote on election day, as the article says.

So if they dems get overconfident, they might as well get used to saying the words "President Palin".

[SkinsTerps26]

Bradley effect

[Prosperity]

pretty weak article in my opinion, race isn't going to be the deciding factor

[Thiebear]

Dont forget that voting for Obama is November 6th..

McCain's older crowd starts on the 5th till 3:15pm when dinner starts.

Race will account for 20% of the election.

Obama will lose every state at a minimum of 5% or less.

[Barney B]

Dont forget that voting for Obama is November 6th..

McCain's older crowd starts on the 5th till 3:15pm when dinner starts.

Race will account for 20% of the election.

Obama will lose every state at a minimum of 5% or less.

Not subtle enough.

[Toe Jam]

pretty weak article in my opinion, race isn't going to be the deciding factor

You're wrong.

It most certainly will be.

The question is which side will be the victor because of the race issue.

It could go either way.

[expensivegift]

Also polls before the election =/= election day polls. Obama might win big or whatever but I just feel like the Dems are really outspoken about all this so they are eager to answer the pollsters. The Republicans don't have the same passion for McCain so they shrug off the pollsters. In the end the Republicans who are much older and have a track record of voting will probably turn out at a much higher rate than the Dems. This will be key in battleground states like VA, CO, IN, etc...

[brianm23]

These are the people voting for McCain.

[Burgold]

What a McCain win would look like....

okay, not really... but I couldn't resist.

[WVUforREDSKINS]

I had no idea that Al Jazeera had an American branch. Interesting.

[Prosperity]

You're wrong.

It most certainly will be.

The question is which side will be the victor because of the race issue.

It could go either way.

what is your justification for this?

Bush is more important in this election than race imo

[jpyaks3]

Also polls before the election =/= election day polls. Obama might win big or whatever but I just feel like the Dems are really outspoken about all this so they are eager to answer the pollsters. The Republicans don't have the same passion for McCain so they shrug off the pollsters. In the end the Republicans who are much older and have a track record of voting will probably turn out at a much higher rate than the Dems. This will be key in battleground states like VA, CO, IN, etc...

I seriously doubt the Shy Torrie effect will make up 8 points on election day. The polling may be underestimating both Obama's youth/minority vote and his GOTV organization. However, there will not be more then a point or two swing either way on election day.

[JimboDaMan]

Let me get this straight:

White Republicans not voting for Obama are racists?

Wouldn't they be voting against Obama because he's a Democrat?

If there's any "racism" in this election, it's the white Democrats not voting for a Democratic candidate simply because he's black.

This is so stupid. Democrats should only be accusing themselves of racism if Obama loses.

Try to keep up. Republican margins = McCain margins. The writer isn't saying the voters are Republican, but the votes are Republican.

[Toe Jam]

what is your justification for this?

Bush is more important in this election than race imo

My point is that there are blacks who will vote for Obama because of race and whites who vote for McCain because of race.

And I think it will play a more significant factor than what polls say. It's just my opinion.

[88Comrade2000]

My point is that there are blacks who will vote for Obama because of race and whites who vote for McCain because of race.

And I think it will play a more significant factor than what polls say. It's just my opinion.

There's no doubt that in some districts, race will definitely play a part.

Obama is going to get 95% of the black vote and some are voting for him, simply because he's black. That's how he beat Hillary.

There are still areas of the country that will never vote for a black man, even one that's half white.

How much of a factor this will play in the overall national race remains to be seen. If the race is closer then race will be a factor, especially if a poll going into election day says OBama has 10 point lead in a state and he loses by 2 or 3 points.

I personally don't think race will be much of a factor as far as preventing Obama from winning. It will be more of factor for him to winning some normally republican states. The black vote and any youth vote could tip a state to him.

[Baculus]

Let me get this straight:

White Republicans not voting for Obama are racists?

Wouldn't they be voting against Obama because he's a Democrat?

If there's any "racism" in this election, it's the white Democrats not voting for a Democratic candidate simply because he's black.

This is so stupid. Democrats should only be accusing themselves of racism if Obama loses.

I think the part of the article's topic is regarding Americans, regardless of their party affiliation, who may not vote for Obama due to his race.

[Baculus]

According to everyone if you don't vote for Obama you are racist.

Who is "everyone" and where do they vote, and do you have evidence of such broad assertions?

Of course, do you realize that there are people who really won't vote for Obama due to his darker skin?