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Why The Stat?


PrimetimeSkin

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I was looking at Jason's stats from last year, and one interesting fact caught my eye. This may have been addressed in previous discussions, so I searched but came up empty. So here is the stat. In every game in which Campbell attempted 30 or more passes the team got the LOSS. My question...Why do you guys think this occurred?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=8440

EDIT: I tried making it easy for everyone by pasting the stats but the post got scattered.

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Dont blame him for losses like Green Bay and the NYG. We had to strictly go to pass when we gave up a 17 pt lead against NYG. Against GB, we were inside GB territory after a great return by Rock and then Moss fumbles it

You also can't blame him for the home loss VS Philadelphia. JC threw 34 times, but hit 3 TDs and ZERO Interceptions

That 3 game stretch toward then end of the season (right before JC went down) was the brutal streak for Campbell. He threw 144 attempts in three games as the Redskins struggled to establish the RUN GAME (Portis had only 154 yards in those three games).

When the running attack stalls, Campbell is forced into long yardage passing situations. When the team is trailing, he has to throw longballs (low % attempts) and a lot of them.

So the correlation between the TEAM Losses and Campbell's performance can't really be blamed on JC. The whole offense needs to gel for the passing game to be successful.

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I was looking at Jason's stats from last year, and one interesting fact caught my eye. This may have been addressed in previous discussions, so I searched but came up empty. So here is the stat. In every game in which Campbell attempted 30 or more passes the team got the LOSS. My question...Why do you guys think this occurred?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=8440

EDIT: I tried making it easy for everyone by pasting the stats but the post got scattered.

More than 40 and only Tom Brady has a winning record. 35 or more and only a few QBs have winning records. You throw more than 30 times, unless its because you run more than twice the number of plays than you threw, most QBs lost. You are more likely to have to pass more when your behind. You go into the 4th with a solid lead and a decent defense, lots of running is the most likely way to win.

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Let's look at the QB that runs an offense most analogous to what offense we will run this year: Matt Hasselbeck

http://www.nfl.com/players/matthasselbeck/gamelogs?id=HAS536799

Hasselbeck threw an average of 35.125 times per game in the regular season in 2008.

In the 10 wins last year, he threw 34.3 times per game on average.

In the 6 losses last year, he threw 36.5 times per game on average.

So just to show you that when the offense in clicking in a year or three, 34+ passes seems to be the norm.

As to what the 2008 Skins will look like, lets look back to the 2005 Seahawks with Alexander as MVP and look at Hasselbecks throwing numbers.

18.375 completions per game, 28.0625 attempts per game.

As opposed to Campbell's career numbers:

18 completions per game, 31.2 attempts per game.

Campbell is accustomed to throwing close to as much as he will with Zorn's system fully in place. The teams reception accuracy needs to get better as a whole.

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A good part of the reason is a team has to pass a lot when they are behind, much like a team that is in front runs a lot.

For instance, in the loss to the Giants he only threw 14 times in the first half. Loss to the eagles? 12. He only attempted 13 of his 54 passes in the first half against the Cowboys. Only 17 of his 49 attempts against the Bucs was in the first half. The rest were about 50/50, but as you can see oftentimes it was indicative of the Skins falling behind and trying to catch up in the second half.

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I don't give him the sole blame, but Jason Campbell does have to take some share of the fault in losses versus Green Bay and New York, with sub-50% completion percentage and sub 60% completion percentages respectively (along with interceptions and fumbles)...

The only game where he did pretty much 99% correct was the Eagles game... The Dallas game, I'm also willing to give him a pass...

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