It's In The Numbers: Why The 'Skins Have A Great Shot At Beating New England

[[S.S.F. | Nero]]

***Disclaimer*** As a pre-emptive retort to the multitudes of super smart ES'ers that will be inclined to point out the Arizona game instead of taking this post and its 'non-Arizona' subject matter for what it's worth - I am NOT LOOKING PAST ARIZONA.

Nonetheless, after we beat Arizona (if we can't beat Tim Rattay or a gimpy Kurt Warner, it's a lost cause to begin with, admit that much) we'll be going into hostile New England. Many here are already considering that game a loss. I am not one of those that are without stones. I decided to look at this year's standings and realized something that I felt should be brought out into the brighter light.

The New England Patriots, with a record of 6-0, stand atop the league and are thought by many to be on the verge of becoming one of the greatest teams ever assembled.......but they are beatable.

The six teams that NE has defeated so far this season have a combined record of 14-20 (.411). This number is slightly skewed as it includes the Cowboys' 5-1 mark. Take away the Cowboy game and the Patriots' opponents' record stands at a gleaming 9-19 (.321).

Some of you may already be pointing to last week's drubbing of the Cowboys as proof positive that New England can contend with and beat good teams.

This assertion can also be questioned as one begins to examine Dallas' record.

The Cowboys' opponents' record is a robust 13-22 (.371). This number is also helped by the Patriots' 6-0 record. Without the Patriots game (a game which Dallas lost anyway) the Cowboys' opponents' record is a staggering 7-22 (.241).

This is not to imply that neither Dallas or New England are good football teams. They are.

The Redskins stand at 3-2 with two losses that were VERY WINNABLE.

The Redskins' opponents' record stands at 14-14 (.500).

Assuming for a moment that they had won the two games they could/should have won, their opponents' would still be a respectable 12-16 (.483)

The Patriots have yet to play a defense that is ranked in the top 10 in the league. In fact, 4 of their 6 wins have come against defenses that ranked in the bottom 5 defenses in the NFL.

The same people that were pointing toward the Cowboys earlier are now probably looking at the recent dismantling of their #11 defense by NE as proof that Tom and the Gang can beat real defenses. I'm not buying it.

The Cowboys' defense has only faced 2 teams that rank in the top half of the league on offense, the Patriots and the Giants. 4 of their 5 victories have come against teams that rank in the bottom third of the league on offense and 3 of those teams help make up the bottom 5 offenses in the league. The Cowboys' defense is overrated and it was exposed last Sunday and will continue to be exploited moving forward.

What should you, the Redskins' fan, take from all of this?

You should take pride in knowing that the Redskins have a real chance at derailing the Patriot Express.

Just look at the numbers.

[cjbrown]

This is nice, but we still have problems with execution on offense. And until that changes no game or lead is sure or secure, even against bad teams.

[[S.S.F. | Nero]]

This is nice, but we still have problems with execution on offense. And until that changes no game or lead is sure or secure, even against bad teams.

You're right. With this defense though, we can open some eyes.

I've read on numerous websites that people around the league are beginning to eye the Redskins as a team to be well aware of.

You're right though, if we can't eliminate the mistakes, we'll go nowhere fast.

[FanboyOf91]

Belicheck has been coaching with a chip on his shoulder; he pretty much wants to destroy every team in the NFL by 3 touchdowns each and then deploy dual middle-fingers as they're handing him the Lombardi Trophy

Also, Belicheck is hell on rookie QBs

[Mania]

I've been saying for a couple of weeks now, that the Skins pose a great threat to the Patiots undefeated season until this point.

[BD]

Ahem. Campbell = NOT A ROOKIE.

I don't the Redskins will beat the Patriots. BUT I do believe it'll be the closest game the Pats have played all year.

[Bat~man]

Our defense will keep us in the game , but eventually our offense will stall as it does every week and the pats will figure us out , it would be nice to win but everyone is popping off a "why we will beat the pats" thread , we haven't even played the cards yet and the pats haven't played the dolphins yet ,either way I don't think we are beating the pats ~ ... don't set yourself up to be disappoinated =p

[DGreenistheBest]

I don't the Redskins will beat the Patriots. BUT I do believe it'll be the closest game the Pats have played all year.

I think the Redskins stand a chance, but I am doubtful. I do, however, firmly believe that this will be the closest game, barring any late season games where starters are benched, the the Patriots will experience all year.

[bubba9497]

Dallas 24th against the pass, 25th points allowed

just sayin'

[2006Skins]

I'm not really thinking about the pats game right now, because the cards are on my mind. But the you know the old sayings, "Any Given Sunday"

[wildbill]

Yeah, but did the Pats have something to do with the poor defensive ratings and win loss record? Still kind of early to be relying on stats...

[Touchdown Redskins]

Belicheck has been coaching with a chip on his shoulder; he pretty much wants to destroy every team in the NFL by 3 touchdowns each and then deploy dual middle-fingers as they're handing him the Lombardi Trophy

Also, Belicheck is hell on rookie QBs

Good thing we don't have a rookie QB.

[SkinsGuy]

I do believe that the Redskins have a defense (provided Springs plays) that can handle the Patriots.

The problem, of course, is the offense. It has benn running in fits and starts. If not that, it has been too obliging, with dropped passes and turnovers.

First thing first, though. The Cardinals this Sunday at Fed Ex.

[bubba9497]

Yeah, but did the Pats have something to do with the poor defensive ratings and win loss record? Still kind of early to be relying on stats...

1 game out of 6

[mike225]

I don't think that we can beat the pats , but I hope so

[Taylorfan2179]

Belicheck has been coaching with a chip on his shoulder; he pretty much wants to destroy every team in the NFL by 3 touchdowns each and then deploy dual middle-fingers as they're handing him the Lombardi Trophy

HAHAHAHAHAAA

[wit 33]

Anyone who states that the Skins can beat the Pats are in essence saying we will win the Super Bowl.

[Mark The Homer]

You completely skipped over the fact that the teams the Redskins have played haven't been much better. For example, both teams have played top ten teams twice. The pats are 2-0. The Redskins are 0-2.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl07.htm

Nevertheless, I think we have a shot. One thing we have going for us is the possibility of a let down by the Pats. It's hard to get emotionally up for every game, especially when playing a clearly weaker opponent. The Redskins used to suffer from the same problem back in the day.

[Oldfan]

Nero, I haven't checked your numbers, so let me ask:

Did you back out the Patriots game when you came up with your strength of schedule stat? For example, the Pats are 6-0. If their opponents are 14-20 overall, they were 14-14 against opponents other than the Patriots.

If you don't do this, all winning teams will appear to have played a weak schedule and all losing teams will appear to have played a tough schedule.

The same is true for your yardage figures. The numbers for the team you are measuring have to be backed out of the total to get a better idea of the strength of schedule

[NoItAllRS]

I know we can beat the Pats. Image if El and Moss show up to work on the same Sunday. Because up to this point they haven't. The defense can keep us in the game the way our secondary is playing. This team is "Voltron", they just haven't come together just yet. Something tells me it will. That something is JG.:cool:

[D'KanSkinFan]

In my opinion, you can lay out all the numbers you want - add/subtract; doesn't account for desire.

On any given day - with the desire to win - the team that wants to win - will. Then the numbers will change:D .

[Soup]

The defense will stop the pats but it will be 17-3 the pats winning. The redskins look like the steelers except the skins don't have an elite offense. If the skins could score 21 or 27 against the pats we'll have a shot but I wouldn't count on it.

[emor09]

if there is any secondary in the league to stop Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Watson...it would be the Redskins

[Laxpunk2006]

First of all I love the way you put your argument together. I happen to completely agree. So far we're going to be the best matchup against NE. I think we've proven we have an elite defense after shutting down 2 #1 passing attacks in a row, and being in the top 5 of many defensive categories. We also are fortunate to be deep at CB/DB. With the range of ST we should be able to at least slow down NE's deep game and maybe come out with a turnover or two from our secondary. A big key here is going to be if Shawn Springs is able to play because of his father's situation.

As the great Patrick Crayton (:laugh: ) said, their defense isn't for real. I think we match up here pretty well also. If our offensive line can execute we should be able to beat their older LB's with perimiter runs and a few blasts up the middle with Sellers to keep them honest. I would expect Cooley to have a big day as well.

I'm not sure why people are so doomy and gloomy about this game. This isn't the first time a team has gone 6-0. Indy has looked better than this multiple times and everyone eventually loses. Maybe if NE can beat another real team I'll start worrying.

[kwitt]

I think our chances would be really good if our O-Line was intact and we could keep Brady and Co. off the field. I miss Randy Thomas.