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Skins '07 chances of success


GroundNPound

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Since ’03… these are the NFL’s defensive ranking (Ala NFL.com)

‘06 ‘05 ‘04 ‘03

1 5 6 3 Baltimore

2 6 11 6 Jacksonville

3 27 30 30 Oakland

4 18 8 10 Miami

5 2 21 14 Chicago

6 26 9 7 New England

7 3 20 8 Carolina

8 21 28 23 Minnesota

9 4 1 9 Pittsburgh

10 13 18 27 San Diego

11 14 32 18 New Orleans

12 7 25 17 Green Bay

13 10 16 1 Dallas

14 15 4 4 Denver

15 23 10 20 Philadelphia

16 25 31 29 Kansas City

17 1 5 5 Tampa Bay

18 29 2 2 Buffalo

19 17 26 19 Seattle

20 12 7 21 New York (Jets)

21 11 29 11 Indianapolis

22 22 14 32 Atlanta

23 30 17 16 St. Louis

24 31 23 32 Houston

25 24 13 22 New York (Giants)

26 32 24 13 San Francisco

27 16 15 15 Cleveland

28 20 22 24 Detroit

29 8 12 26 Arizona

30 28 19 28 Cincinnati

31 9 3 25 Washington

32 19 27 12 Tennessee

16 + Rank Improvement = 9 :cheers:

12 + Rank Improbement = 4 :applause:

11 or less = 83

Total Seasons to compare (32 x 3) = 96

Chances of us improving to 15+ Defense – 9.4%

Chances of us improving to 19+ Defense - 13.6%

Chances of us staying in bottom 12 – 86.4.%

This is a crude calculation and there are many factors involved that could influence how the Redskins compare to the total scenario… such as how many starters were injured, new coaches/staff, who was drafted, sacks/ints year to yea, offensive rankings etc. that aren’t affecting this outcome. I would love to see some less amateur calculations and formulas that make this more interesting.

The bottom line is that I am an optimist for the year, but it looks like the ‘skins will certainly be fighting an uphill battle (surprise surprise:rolleyes: ).

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Now that we have solid depth (aka - No Wright or Rumph at CB or Arch as S) they should have GWs faith which allows him to do his thing instead of compensating for poor play. So maybe not top 10, but I foresee an improvement.

And a little off-topic, but I actually kinda like these threads about "football" instead of controversy.

Offseason sucks.

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Here's what i'm thinking...

The majority of our defensive issues last year stemmed from injuries and a very mediocre base of depth at key positions. On that note, it all hinges on how healthy our aging line stays, how well smoot and macklin fill in at other formations (assuming springs starts), and if marcus washington is up to 100%. Let's speculate a bit, in accordance with all offseason chatter, and say that we finish in the top 10 due to the offensive troubles that are sure happen to our foes within NFC east!

CHEERS

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']I'd say we have about a 25% chance of making the playoffs' date=' without going into any of my reasoning.

I'm trying to be optimistic.[/quote']

Optimistic? We were 2 games out of the playoffs last year. That's a couple of field goals.

Here's a little Wilbon-esque response to your Kornheiser-esque comment --- the Redskins have a ONE HUNDRED PERCENT chance of making the playoffs this year. The NFC East is horribly depleted, the NFC is even more atrocious than usual, and the Skins finally have a sense of urgency.

ONE

HUNDRED

PERCENT.

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Optimistic? We were 2 games out of the playoffs last year. That's a couple of field goals.

Here's a little Wilbon-esque response to your Kornheiser-esque comment --- the Redskins have a ONE HUNDRED PERCENT chance of making the playoffs this year. The NFC East is horribly depleted, the NFC is even more atrocious than usual, and the Skins finally have a sense of urgency.

ONE

HUNDRED

PERCENT.

I like that and if we stay healthy I see the same thing :cheers:

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the math is this thread fails to take into account change in personel, schedule strength, caoching/system changes. I believe the the figures represented here are extremely arbitary and i wouold not put much stock into them

I agree

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If we go 8-8 this year we will be lucky hope I am wrong but, don't see this defensive line stopping the run or rushing the QB effectively

We will make the playoffs and maybe the Superbowl. I have faith every year and pull out my Redskins kleenex if the do great or do bad. Tears of joy of tears of frustration requires my Redskins kleenex.

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The Redskins do not need a top ten defense to have success. I think we all would agree if the Skins D played average last year, they would have made the playoff's. If the Skins play average D this year, I think the Skins will be in good shape this year. With the new additions and the return of some healthy players, an average defensive team is realistic.

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Who cares what the rankings are for defense or offense. Oakland was 3rd in defense and the worst team in the league. I'll take rankings between 15th and 22nd and make the playoffs. If everyone is healthy, and we create turnovers, and we have a 1000 yard back, I like our odds better than anyone else in the NFC.

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Who cares what the rankings are for defense or offense. Oakland was 3rd in defense and the worst team in the league. I'll take rankings between 15th and 22nd and make the playoffs. If everyone is healthy, and we create turnovers, and we have a 1000 yard back, I like our odds better than anyone else in the NFC.

We had the worst Field Goal Kicker, Kirt Knight, in 1972 and we made it to the Superbowl. I agree, its what matters at the end of the year and how healthy we are that makes the biggest difference.:cheers:

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