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My thoughts on what free agency means to all of us


Jeremiah_Johnson

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After watching Clements get 80 million, and Dock getting 49 million, I think what the underlying conclusion of all of this will be that it is more important now than ever to draft well.

Look at all the really good teams in the last 15-20 years. Colts, Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers. They all had alot of draft picks, and built through the draft.

A team simply cannot compete by paying a player, Clements for example 80 million. What if he gets hurt? You've just spent a boatload of money for a guy who is on the bench. But what if you take that 80 million and spread it across 6-8 decent to good players through the draft, and maybe even hit on one or two studs. What would you rather have?

Its all about draft picks people. Compile as many as you can and roll the dice. Of course not every pick works out, but if you have good scouts, and good leadership, good things usually happen. The broncos have been masters of it for years. Always trading away a guy here or there for other players and picks. Same with the Patriots.

Dockery is a perfect example of this. He is a little above average. Not all world like Hutchinson, but certainly above average. Does anyone doubt that Ben Grubbs from Auburn or Justin Blalock from Texas couldn't step right in and replace Dockery without skipping a beat? At 1/3 of the price.

Secondly, if you draft a bust, you cut him, and move on. No huge damage done unless its a early first round qb or something (Joey Harrington or Ryan Leaf come to mind), but if you land a high dollar free agent who turns into a bust, (Archuleta comes to mind), you're flat out screwed because of the money you're committed to him.

Its all about the draft people. Every bit of it.

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Yep. Free agency is just becoming a mess. You can't build a team through it, that's for sure - as if the Redskins haven't already proved this time and time again.

It's too bad we only have 1 first day pick (at the moment), but at least we have most of them for next year.

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Agreed 100%.

Still a fun time though. I mean NFL season is a long 7 months away and Free Agency resparks debate and discussion among the fans.

I agree, it is fun. As long as your not a buffalo bills fan. Losing Clements, rumors about trading McGahee, and Takeo. And now the icing on the cake is paying 50 million for a run of the mill guard.

I think I just figured out why the suicide rate is so high in Buffalo. And to think, everyone thought it was from those long cold winters.:doh:

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I think that what we'll see over the next 4-5 years is market value on FA's tumble. I know it sounds crazy, but I think too many teams are realizing you just can't build this way.

Besides, the only players in the NFL worth big-money are Quarterbacks. And teams just don't let good QB's hit the free agent market. Because once you get your guy, you're a contender every year.

But 80 million for a CB? That doesn't guarantee you anything, except that one of the teams 5 offensive weapons will be sufficiently covered on 50% of offensive plays.

And thats it.

.....

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I think that what we'll see over the next 4-5 years is market value on FA's tumble. I know it sounds crazy, but I think too many teams are realizing you just can't build this way.

Besides, the only players in the NFL worth big-money are Quarterbacks. And teams just don't let good QB's hit the free agent market. Because once you get your guy, you're a contender every year.

But 80 million for a CB? That doesn't guarantee you anything, except that one of the teams 5 offensive weapons will be sufficiently covered on 50% of offensive plays.

And thats it.

.....

I agree. Top notch QB's are worth every penny, but even then, Joe Montana wouldn't have been Joe Montana if he played behind a crappy line.

A CB getting 80 million? It just absolutely boggles my mind. What would Deion have gotten in todays dollors if he were in his prime?

The thing is, and this is what I can't believe the NFL GM's don't get is the difference between an average CB and a Great one, is about 1 second. A Great CB buys you one more second of coverage over an average CB. So I ask you, would you rather put your money in a D line who can flat out get after a qb and take that extra second away, or would you like to drop 80 million on ONE guy who can cover a guy for one more second that an average CB, all the while, the qb (with his extra second to survey the field cause the opposing teams GM was too stupid to pay pass rushers) turns his head the other way and throws a 6 yard dumpoff pass to the other CB on the field (the guy that doesn't make nearly what Clements makes cause they can't afford to pay two all pro's at that position) that goes for 10-15 yards?

Seems like a no brainer to me, but hey, what do I know, I'm just on a message board late at night cause I've drinken one too many Jolt Cola's.

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^^^ At some point, shut-down corners became all the rage. But if they're so great, how come shut-down corners so often play for crappy teams?

Bailey's time in Washington... Hell, Clements couldn't help Buffalo. So San Fran thinks he'll be their saviour?

It's just an unbelievable amount of money to pay for a guy who has a limited role in the defense... and like I said, is really only in on about 50% of the plays... of which he's probably involved in another 50%. So you break the bank on a guy, AT MOST, who is going to see action on 1 out of every 4 or 5 plays (and only one 1 side of the ball, no less). That's just dumb.

To your point, that money is much better spent on a Dlineman, who on EVERY play, is relevant.

But really, the only position in the NFL that can pick up a team and carry it is at the QB spot.

People laugh at me all the time... and I've said it so many times on this board... if I were a GM, I would draft a QB in the first round every single year, until I found "the guy" (i.e. Manning/Brady/Palmer/etc.)

Then I would sit back, relax, and watch my team enjoy a playoff berth every single year. Oh yah, and I'd tell all the haters/doubters to kiss my ass too :silly:

(and you better believe, NO WAY that QB of mine ever even sniffs free agency, just like you see in the NFL today.)

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^

To your point, that money is much better spent on a Dlineman, who on EVERY play, is relevant.

Thats a real good point that I didn't even think of. Dlineman, and O lineman for that matter, are important on every single down of the game. Unlike a CB.

The other nice thing about having alot of draft picks is being fairly deep at alot of positions. In the case of Dlineman you can substitute in and out often and really keep the guys fresh. Jimmy Johnson did alot that with the Cowboys when they were making thier run in the 90's and it worked wonders for him. You just got to have the talent, and that comes from the draft.

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This team really needs 3-4 straight years with 8-10 draft picks

You figure not every guy you draft will cut it, and you need to build depth internally

Draft lots of guys, build depth, figure out who is worth it and sign them quickly long term

Absolutley dead on post. Hopefully the FA realizes you build in the draft and tweak through mid level moves in free agencey (Fletcher a great example) and fill holes that way

Your "core" 15-20 guys on a team should be drafted guys

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The NFL draft should be treated as a 2, 3 or 4 year plan by the Skins. Unfortunately, we typically treat the draft as a one year thing. Right now,the FO should have plans to draft to replace every player with 5 or more years. They should already be evaluating the freshman, sophomores and juniors and look for the next Tom Brady or Steve Smith or Cooley drafted in the later rounds.

Unfortunately that requires a scouting department that shows a talent for finding talent. It's easy to see talent like Jamaal Anderson or Gaines Adams. What we need is scouts who know two or three dozen college teams well enough to find that next undrafted gem, the next round 3, 4 or 5 guy that ends up all-Pro. That requires a GM who requires accountability of his scouts. Easy test of an NFL scout, of the top 32 the scout recommended beyond the first rounders, who is making an impact in the NFL? Just like picking stocks, the front office needs to see who among the Skins scouts actually predicted the NFL talent of the second and third rounders.

But that requires a thorough change in the FO, top to bottom, and/or a GM to run the scouts - full time. And it requires a philosophy that draft picks are valuable and that rookies can play and should play when the game, or the season, is already a bust.

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Yeah I know.

But hey, at least we have our Wizards! :D

Huh?

That game where the guys in blue dribble that orange ball around and try to throw it in that basket? Yeah, I was watching that too cuz I wanted to see our new free agents being courted. :silly:

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After watching Clements get 80 million, and Dock getting 49 million, I think what the underlying conclusion of all of this will be that it is more important now than ever to draft well.

Look at all the really good teams in the last 15-20 years. Colts, Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers. They all had alot of draft picks, and built through the draft.

A team simply cannot compete by paying a player, Clements for example 80 million. What if he gets hurt? You've just spent a boatload of money for a guy who is on the bench. But what if you take that 80 million and spread it across 6-8 decent to good players through the draft, and maybe even hit on one or two studs. What would you rather have?

Its all about draft picks people. Compile as many as you can and roll the dice. Of course not every pick works out, but if you have good scouts, and good leadership, good things usually happen. The broncos have been masters of it for years. Always trading away a guy here or there for other players and picks. Same with the Patriots.

Dockery is a perfect example of this. He is a little above average. Not all world like Hutchinson, but certainly above average. Does anyone doubt that Ben Grubbs from Auburn or Justin Blalock from Texas couldn't step right in and replace Dockery without skipping a beat? At 1/3 of the price.

Secondly, if you draft a bust, you cut him, and move on. No huge damage done unless its a early first round qb or something (Joey Harrington or Ryan Leaf come to mind), but if you land a high dollar free agent who turns into a bust, (Archuleta comes to mind), you're flat out screwed because of the money you're committed to him.

Its all about the draft people. Every bit of it.

No offense, but you're just learning this now?

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