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Rethinking the Broncos Trade


MRMADD

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At the time, I thought trading a first round pick plus a 3rd and 4th was too much to pay for Jason Campbell, selected with the 25th pick.

I figured the Skins 2006 first rounder would be better than that. Well, Joe Gibbs showed me: as it stands today, the Broncos will get the 20th pick in the draft. If Gibbs makes the playoffs and wins a game, it gets worse for them.

So the Skins gave up a 3rd rounder this year (Karl Paymah, who hasn't played), a 4th rounder next year (which, let's face it, Vinnie would have wasted anyway), and the (so far) #20 pick. The jury is still out on Campbell, but if he does develop into a starter, the Skins did much better than I originally thought.

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For me, watching the first round pick we gave the Donkeys plummet into the low to mid twenties has been the icing on top of our playoff run cake. Let's hope it keeps getting lower:)

Totally agree, one of the most satisfying things of the season is watching the donc fans dreams of a top 5 pick fade away.

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Hopefully Jason Campbell pans out for us. Lets say he does. I still disagree with he Skins giving up a 1st, 3rd and 4th rounder for the 25th pick in the draft. I've said this before, "Just because something turns out OK, doesn't mean it was the right thing to do". It means you got lucky. Its like that ball hog in basket ball hoisting up an ill advised long jumper. You say no no no and when it goes in you say yeah yeah yeah. I think if a team does its homeowork, over the years your draft homework will pay off.

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I've said this before, "Just because something turns out OK, doesn't mean it was the right thing to do". It means you got lucky.

I agree with some of the points you make. But I think the really questionable position in this particular circumstance is the surety with some who decry the decision before seeing campbell play in the NFL after Gibbs gets him where he believes he's ready.

Until then, acting like the "it was a bad deal" stance is anything more accurate than any other speculation is misplaced. The evidence as exitstent to date is not near decisive enough to objectively warrant sureness that it was a mistake to trade the picks, IMO.

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Hopefully Jason Campbell pans out for us. Lets say he does. I still disagree with he Skins giving up a 1st, 3rd and 4th rounder for the 25th pick in the draft. I've said this before, "Just because something turns out OK, doesn't mean it was the right thing to do". It means you got lucky. Its like that ball hog in basket ball hoisting up an ill advised long jumper. You say no no no and when it goes in you say yeah yeah yeah. I think if a team does its homeowork, over the years your draft homework will pay off.

If Campbell turns out to be as good as Gibbs thinks he is, that trade will be the steal of the century. No luck involved there. Gibbs did his "homework" with Campbell, that much I guarantee.

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I thought you were gonna say that you've decided that Portis was worth Champ and the second. I thought Gibbs did great with both of those trades when he made them, and I still do.

Agreed. Have since Day One. For me, confirmation is fully in on the first, but only the future can decide the second.

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Only point I'd want to add is the fact that we are in dire need of successful late round draft picks who pan out into great starters down the line. We can't have free agency fix everything.

Unfortunately, the front office seems to be awful after the first two rounds. They overlook players who seem to be obvious steals and grab players that never make the roster. They took Manuel White in the 4th this year when guys like Chris Canty were still on the board. True, Canty had some red flags with the knee and eye, but he was a projected first rounder before the knee injury. Manuel White? His upside is... maybe contribute on special teams.

And this is not just a one-year phenomenon.

Maybe that's why Joe traded the picks -- it's better than wasting them, right?

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If Campbell turns out to be as good as Gibbs thinks he is, that trade will be the steal of the century. No luck involved there. Gibbs did his "homework" with Campbell, that much I guarantee.

Main man its not steal if you give up a 1st, 3rd and 4th rounder. I hope you're right. I hope Campbell does pan out. You can't make that type investment in a player and then around and say oops!

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Manuel White? His upside is... maybe contribute on special teams.

Who knew Mike Sellars was going to evolve into a TD machine this year? Manuel White would likely have filled that role if Sellars hadn't done what he's done. White was a damn fine RB at UCLA who could run, catch, and block. He is around 250 lbs so he can punish too. CP had trouble in short yardage last year so taking a pair of 250 lb RBs wasn't a bad idea in the least.

We are looking at their rookie years as well, we need more time to see if Canty's body holds up and if guys like White and Nemo become the H-backs Gibbs so covets.

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Unfortunately, the front office seems to be awful after the first two rounds. They overlook players who seem to be obvious steals and grab players that never make the roster. They took Manuel White in the 4th this year when guys like Chris Canty were still on the board. True, Canty had some red flags with the knee and eye, but he was a projected first rounder before the knee injury. Manuel White? His upside is... maybe contribute on special teams.

And this is not just a one-year phenomenon.

Maybe that's why Joe traded the picks -- it's better than wasting them, right?

I dunno about being awful after the first two rounds....Chris Cooley????

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a little off topic, but what do you guys think about putting Lavar Arrington in for goalline situations on offense? He does the Lavar leap pretty well, and so far in his NFL career he has yet to hit anyone on the opposing team (sorry I had to go there). That being said, maybe he could score some points from the 1-2 yard line.

I got the idea from seeing the Patriots use offensive linemen and linebackers as a fullback in their last game when they blasted the sorry Bucs.

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well joe gibbs was right about brunell, moss, and portis.

so i think campell wil turn out good.

My grades for the moves you mentioned

Moss for Coles? A plus plus

Portis for Champ? B

Brunell huge contract- D minus

And we'll have to see about campbell. Here's hoping his last year at Auburn was more indicative of his true talent than the first three were.

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Hopefully Jason Campbell pans out for us. Lets say he does. I still disagree with he Skins giving up a 1st, 3rd and 4th rounder for the 25th pick in the draft. I've said this before, "Just because something turns out OK, doesn't mean it was the right thing to do". It means you got lucky. Its like that ball hog in basket ball hoisting up an ill advised long jumper. You say no no no and when it goes in you say yeah yeah yeah. I think if a team does its homeowork, over the years your draft homework will pay off.

I agree with this. However what if Gibbs and company valued Cambell higher than Rodgers and even Smith? In otherwords what if Gibbs looked at these QBs and said Campbell should be a top ten pick or if we had two top 10 picks then Gibbs would have taken Campbell with one of them? Then giving up the 3rd and 4th round pick is not a bad deal. I mean I doubt Gibbs just said I need a QB and since Rodgers is gone lets just get Campbell. I bet you if GB didn't take Rodgers he still would have taken Campbell, hell if SF didn't take Smith and both him and Rodgers were available Gibbs would still have taken Campbell.

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When the trade was effected it was reported by the Redskins that they came ahead in the total value points assigned to the picks exchanged. Most of the league uses a standardized matrix that values draft picks in terms of point totals. Picks in future years are assigned less value that the same round picks in the current year because of the uncertainty of the actual draft position in a subsequent year and because of the time value of selecting a player in the present draft means in theory that the player will develop and contribute sooner than players selected with picks in future years. Given what we know and expect about the actual draft position of the 2006 picks that the skins exchanged, in terms of point value the skins did fine.

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