Proposal: extend contracts of WRs and QBs now, before 2003 free agency

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I've been thinking about our glut of good WRs (7 plus Russell) and QBs (4), and how at least one QB and WR will probably have to be cut or traded. That's unfortunate, but before it happens, why not use the glut as leverage in contract negotiations? Most of these guys have contracts that end after 2002 (or are voidable after 2002). If they put up big numbers, we're screwed next year when it comes time to re-sign them.

So, why use the glut to encourage contract extensions at reasonable prices? The team could say, "Guys, we need to cut or trade one good WR and one good QB. You could make our jobs easier by extending your contract now, thereby taking yourself off the chopping block."

Candidates (with their contract end or void date) include:

Wuerffel (2002)

Matthews (2002)

Rosenfels (2003)

Green (2004, voidable after 2002)

Lockett (2002)

Doering (2002)

Thompson (2002)

McCants (2003)

Anthony (2002)

Gardner is signed through 2005, so he's not a candidate for an extension.

[The Evil Genius]

I think resigning Jansen and Bailey takes precedence. Also, working out the kinks on keeping SD should be higher priority as well.

Then, we talk about the WR's and QB's

Although, I still believe that Ramsey will start Game 1, next year.

[bulldog]

while I might normally agree with you, I think outside of Jacquez Green the Skins are probably going to be able to resign ALL these players if they so choose for favorable dollars.

remember the fact that many of these players did not work out in other situations and in other offenses in some measure diminishes their worth to other teams unless they are going to hire Steve's son or Noah Brindise and try to mimic the system

Wuerffel is tied to Spurrier. If he is successful as a starting quarterback here I think you will see him get resigned in due course and without much acrimony.

What happened with Ramsey won't happen with these other players.

Now, Green, whose contract is voidable after 2002 based on incentives, is another story. He was courted by the Rams and the Colts and because of his speed 4.35 on carpet he is an attractive candidate to be a #3 for St. Louis or Indy.

So, if he has a good season, I can imagine him walking if we don't offer him top money.

Still, I think we will be able to weather his loss based on the development and performance of others such as Thompson and Lockett in this system.

And we can also factor in that other ex-Gators like Ike Hilliard and Travis Taylor may become available as cap casualties with their current clubs after 2002 as neither has set the world on fire.

We may be able to pick one of these players up on the cheap and plug him into what we are trying to accomplish

[W&M]

Yes, Jansen and Champ are the top priorites, but we only need to sign one now, so we can franchise the other one next year.

As for McCants, he isn't going anywhere. He still has an exclusive free agent and restricted rights free agent year.

Like Weurfell, Doering's only value in this league seems to be with Spurrier, so I'm not worried about them flying the coup.

Thompson, Locket, and J.Green are the ones we need to keep a close eye on. They are all young, and one of these three is going to emerge as either a go-to-guy or an indispensible cog in the passing machine. WR's take time to develop, and I don't want to lose one (ala Thrash) after he's all ready to go. I"m particularly worried about losing Thompson and J.Green if they step up into the big-boys shoes.

Quite worrying about Davis, he's gone. Unless Spurrier unveils a surprise, or S.Davis surprises us with reasonable contract demands, we are not keeping/resigning S.Davis. He deserves big money as a power back, and as of now, it doesn't seem like Spurrier will need such a gem power back to make his offense work. I only see Spurrier spending that kind of money on a RB if it was someone like E.James, M.Faulk, or a healthy F.Taylor ... and that's not S.Davis's game. Someone like Pittsburg, Dallas (after Emmett?), Tampa, Minnesota, Buffalo, or the Saints may well spend huge money for Davis next year.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by bulldog

while I might normally agree with you, I think outside of Jacquez Green the Skins are probably going to be able to resign ALL these players if they so choose for favorable dollars.

remember the fact that many of these players did not work out in other situations and in other offenses in some measure diminishes their worth to other teams unless they are going to hire Steve's son or Noah Brindise and try to mimic the system

Your point is good when it comes to Wuerffel, Matthews, Doering and Anthony.

The players I'm most worried about are Thompson and McCants. I think they haven't "failed" previously, they've just failed to be used in their brief time in the NFL. If they light it up in 2002, I expect them to be *very* hot commodities as free agents. (McCants won't be a free agent until 2003, but the point holds.)

Why not extend these guys? They are at a low point of leverage, so only a minimal signing bonus is required to lock them up for four years or so. Trust me, it will be a far different story when they become free agents.

As for the others, they may be "Spurrier" guys, but why not extend them now and avoid hassles later? Again, only a minimal signing bonus is required.

[The Evil Genius]

healthy F.Taylor

That doesnt exist. In fact, fantasy football gamers now refer to him as Fraud Taylor

[laurent]

Let's not get carried away here. So far the only thing those players have proven is that they can get it done for this team in the preseason. To extend those players before they have played a full season under Spurrier is about as foolish as calling Gardner a bust after one rookie season.

[Art]

EG is right.

Bulldog is right.

W&M is right.

The key thing working for us is that none of these guys is going anywhere because they weren't players of note prior to getting here and if Spurrier can make them that, then, good luck to them if they want to leave their Mecca.

If Spurrier can succeed with Wuerffel, Matthews, Green, Doering, Thompson, Lockett, et. al., where others have failed to get great success, then it won't be hard to put the credit where it belongs and to realize that Spurrier can take any clay and mold it into something he can use.

If that happens we'll be in command of the negotiations I think. We will lose Green though who will use the good year as a validation that he was right about what he thinks of himself and he'll go to Cincy or something and have 45 catches again .

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by laurent

Let's not get carried away here. So far the only thing those players have proven is that they can get it done for this team in the preseason. To extend those players before they have played a full season under Spurrier is about as foolish as calling Gardner a bust after one rookie season.

Maybe you don't understand how NFL contracts work. Only a signing bonus is guaranteed. Future years in a contract bind a player to the team, not vice versa. A player can be cut at any time, and the team loses only the signing bonus and the pro-rated salary to date.

Because of the team leverage (they need to cut or trade a QB and WR), they should be able to sign everyone on my list except Wuerffel for a minimal signing bonus -- say, $200,000 pro-rated over 4 years, on average, together with minimum salaries. There's almost zero risk to the team with that kind of contract.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by The Evil Genius

I think resigning Jansen and Bailey takes precedence. Also, working out the kinks on keeping SD should be higher priority as well.

Jansen and Bailey can be extended in parallel. There's enough cap room to do it all.

As for Davis, I'm in favor of waiting. The jury is still out on how he and Betts will work in Spurrier's system. I favor a contract extension with Davis in mid-season, if he shows he can produce for Spurrier with performance worthy of his salary.

That's not to dis Davis, whom I love. I just want to be sure he's worth his dough working for Spurrier, and I'd like to see some of Betts.

[JayCee]

ASF,

While I think you have an interesting topic here, I have to agree with all those who have disagreed with you in this thread for all the aforementioned reasons and for one more I'd like to add.

If we can see how guys like Thompson, McCants, etc. might put up good numbers in SS' system, don't you think they see the same thing and may not want to lock themselves into a low $$$ extended contract.

And as Art said, Spurrier can mold some new guys if some of these leave for bigger dollars elsewhere.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by JayCee

If we can see how guys like Thompson, McCants, etc. might put up good numbers in SS' system, don't you think they see the same thing and may not want to lock themselves into a low $$$ extended contract.

Right, but when the music stops, one of those QBs and one of those WRs will be cut or traded, and that's a veiled threat all of them (except Wuerffel) need to respect.

[Art]

Atlanta,

Even if they all heeded the threat, we'd still be cutting or trading one or more of them. So, what's it get us? I'm not as optimistic as you are that we have money to extend all these guys and to work with Bailey and Jansen. If we have money after those two guys, we can look at it, but, until we have them, and hopefully Davis, Smoot and others taken care of, we need to be careful.

Davis, of course, is a key. Without him, we suddenly have MILLIONS of free cap space to spend next year. With him, we may lose someone else. If the team makes a choice that of the core players we have, the one we can most afford to lose is Davis, then we may be able to do everything you say because we'll have TONS of free space waiting.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by Art

Even if they all heeded the threat, we'd still be cutting or trading one or more of them. So, what's it get us?

I like all these top 7 WRs. I'm really torn as to who to cut or trade, but a decision has to be made. I think it's fair at this point to look to the receivers and see which ones are willing to make a commitment to the team. So the deal is (to the WRs): we have 5 offers on the table. The first five WRs to pick up the offers will make the team (plus Gardner). Last guy gets cut or traded.

As for QB, I do think we should trade Sage, but while there is any doubt, I wouldn't mind using the leverage to extend Matthews (and Wuerffel, but I doubt he'll extend for low dollars).

I'm not as optimistic as you are that we have money to extend all these guys and to work with Bailey and Jansen. If we have money after those two guys, we can look at it, but, until we have them, and hopefully Davis, Smoot and others taken care of, we need to be careful.

Davis, of course, is a key. Without him, we suddenly have MILLIONS of free cap space to spend next year. With him, we may lose someone else. If the team makes a choice that of the core players we have, the one we can most afford to lose is Davis, then we may be able to do everything you say because we'll have TONS of free space waiting.

I think this is easier than people think, because signing bonuses are pro-rated over the length of the contract. We apparently have $3.7M free in cap, of which $1 million might be saved for emergencies. Let's assign the remaining $2.7M as follows:

$300K to Ray Brown for SB in one-year contract

$1M to Jon Jansen ($5M pro-rated SB in five-year extension)

0 to Bailey (we can extend him in offseason, or franchise him then)

$250K to 5 WRs ($200K SB each for 4 year extension)

$333K to Matthews ($1M SB for 3-year extension)

Total: $1.88M (out of $2.7M available)

Some additional dollars will need to be allocated to Brown for his high veteran salary, which will wipe out much of the remaining dollars within the $2.7M available.

If you think the WRs won't bite for a $200K SB, you could skip the Matthews extension and hike the WR SB to $440K for a 4-year extension -- not bad for guys who have never put up numbers.

Skipping on extending Bailey is fairly risk-free, so long as we extend Jansen now. In that event, Bailey could always receive the franchise tag in 2003.

[Sailor]

If Spurrier can succeed with Wuerffel, Matthews, Green, Doering, Thompson, Lockett, et. al., where others have failed to get great success, then it won't be hard to put the credit where it belongs and to realize that Spurrier can take any clay and mold it into something he can use.

Art -

You make a very interesting point here. If our guys have value to us because of Spurier, in excess of their value to other teams, and we can pay them less accordingly, then that is like giving the Skins a bigger cap than the rest of the league.

If Wuerffel can play like a $5 million dollar guy, but we only have to pay him $2 million, that frees up $3 million in cap dollars to spend on other positions.

Spurier needs a raise.....

[Art]

ASF,

I'm confident we have around $2.4 million cap money, but I will defer to PC and Buddha on that because they follow it and I don't have to now. Still, I think when you give Jansen $8 million (perhaps even $10) over seven years and you give Champ $12 (perhaps even $15) over seven years, you don't have much of that free space left over. And that's what we'll be looking at I think.

My hope is we get taht uncapped year and Danny has a $250 million roster .

Sailor, if Spurrier gets a raise, it'll be after we are done building that statue and he'll deserve it

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I have to admit I'm rooting for a trade of Gardner, Lockett, Green or Anthony (over Doering, Thompson, or McCants). Doering isn't worth anything to anyone else, but he's worth a lot to us. I'm convinced McCants and Thompson are going to be huge, so I really don't want to lose them.

Gardner might draw a lot in return value (#2 pick), so that's worth thinking about. We'd take a salary cap hit if he were traded.

Lockett might draw a #5, and Green might draw a #4.

Anthony might not get more than a #7, if that.

All these pick values could of course be the equivalent in player value (such as getting a guard via trade).

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Originally posted by Art

I think when you give Jansen $8 million (perhaps even $10) over seven years and you give Champ $12 (perhaps even $15) over seven years, you don't have much of that free space left over. And that's what we'll be looking at I think.

Why not wait on Bailey until the offseason, when we have more cap room? Only one of the two (Jansen and Bailey) needs to be extended now, and the other can be franchised next year, if an extension is not successfully negotiated then.

I have a hard time believing a lineman is getting a 7-year extension, due to the possibility for career-ending (or career-limiting) injury. The risk of absorbing a huge salary cap hit (after injury) is too high.

[W&M]

Originally posted by Art

Atlanta,

Davis, of course, is a key. Without him, we suddenly have MILLIONS of free cap space to spend next year. With him, we may lose someone else. If the team makes a choice that of the core players we have, the one we can most afford to lose is Davis, then we may be able to do everything you say because we'll have TONS of free space waiting.

It would certainly be a nice consolation prize if Davis's departurere allowed us the cap room to keep/extend everyone else. But actually, we'll be in worse shape (for 2003) if he departs.

Once we cut Davis next year ON MARCH 1 (not after June 1), don't we have something like $5-6 mil in cap penalties coming to us? Now in 2004, our slate woudl be cleared and we should have a ton of money available.

But if we were to extend Davis, then we difer the upfront cap hit, and probably have more room to work with in 2003 ... but then we're just defering the pain until later ... particularly if he falls apart in 2 years.

[Riggo-toni]

ASF,

I think one crucial flaw in your calculations is that these guys taking in the vet min only count $450k against the cap, provided their contract is one-year and their signing bonus is no more than 50k - which means more bonus money automatically raises their base salary 300K per player. Someone can correct me if I'm mistaken here...

[NavyDave]

D Mac was drafted last year and isnt going anywhere for another two years no rush there.

Lockett is pushing 30 isnt he?

And there are plenty of posession midget type receivers out there.

We dont need to go overboard right now especially when we arent talking about receivers that can stretch a defense the exception being J Green.

Sign Champ and Jansen first and hopefully S Davis will see those audibles into running plays that lead to big yards because of the defense in a dime or 3 man front to stop the pass and thus keep him happy and willing to stay here.

If anything spend the money or draft picks on blue chip guards so our Kmart paid guards can look N Marcus like.

[SonnyJ]

All I saw was the title of this thread, and I knew exactly who started it.

ASF, once again in the vanguard.