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Covers.com: Gibbs, Redskins figure to struggle again


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Gibbs, Redskins figure to struggle again

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=49690&tid=47

(Editor’s note: This is the second in a series of NFL team previews by Covers.com senior analyst Stephen Nover. Today: The Washington Redskins)

You’d think by now people would be wise to Joe Gibbs and the serious problems he has with the Washington Redskins.

Not oddsmakers. They have the Redskins just 35-1 to win the Super Bowl. And not bookmakers, either. They’ve set a regular-season win total for Washington at over/under 7 ½ wins.

I’d be surprised if the Redskins reach seven victories. Not only is the 64-year-old Gibbs still scrambling to catch up after being away for 11 years, but he’s steering a dysfunctional franchise that has made the playoffs once the past 13 years.

Gibbs deserves his plaque in the Hall of Fame. But you have to wonder if he’s really in touch with the way football has evolved. He started an obviously over-the-hill Mark Brunell the first nine games, didn’t utilize stud running back Clinton Portis properly and had trouble adjusting to pressure defensive schemes that are standard strategy in today’s NFL.

The result was an offense that couldn’t pass downfield, ranking last in pass completions of more than 20 yards, rated 30th in yardage and averaged a meager 15 points a game, second lowest in the league. Washington didn’t break 20 points until its 12th game. Only twice did the Redskins manage more than 21 points.

The only reason the Redskins even achieved six wins last year was a surprising defense that ranked among the leaders in nearly every category. The Redskins surrendered 18 or fewer points in all but four of their games.

However, defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is hard-pressed to maintain this lofty standard after losing cornerback Fred Smoot and middle linebacker Antonio Pierce in free agency. Remember the Redskins traded their other star cornerback, Champ Bailey, two years ago for Portis. Their once formidable secondary isn’t so imposing now, which could mean fewer blitzes and a more conservative scheme.

In addition Washington’s two most talented defensive players, linebacker LaVar Arrington and safety Sean Taylor, aren’t buying into things. Arrington has proven injury-prone and is unhappy publicly ripping the team, while Taylor’s has serious character issues.

Gibbs should have more luck than last year as far as his team avoiding offensive line injuries, and Portis figures to average more than 3.8 yards a carry, but the passing attack looks underwhelming again. Gibbs has such little confidence in Patrick Ramsey that not only did he keep him on the bench more than half the season despite Brunell’s pathetic play, but dealt three high draft picks to select Auburn quarterback Jason Campbell in the opening round, even though Campbell wasn’t projected as a first-rounder.

Does it sound like Gibbs might be going into panic mode? How about having his quarterbacks work from the shotgun formation? Could you ever imagine Joe Gibbs resorting to the shotgun, or allowing new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to integrate a West Coast style offense using four-wide receiver sets? It’s not like the Redskins are loaded at wide receiver. The best is smallish Santana Moss, who has yet to prove himself when marked as a team’s lead receiver.

Ramsey had to play for Steve Spurrier two years ago and his body probably still hasn’t recovered from the pounding. Last year he had to learn a completely new system under Gibbs. Now he’ll be throwing to new receivers.

So, never mind Gibbs having a lot to prove to reclaim his genius title. This is a team that has a below average passing attack, a defense that figures to have a difficult time maintaining last year’s lofty status and whose best players are head cases. It’s no wonder one Internet book, Olympic, has the Redskins at plus $715 (bet $100 to win $715) to capture the NFC East Division, with the Eagles minus $265 (lay $265 to win $100), Cowboys plus $535 and Giants plus $625.

The Plaza, a hotel in downtown Las Vegas, has pointspreads up for the entire season. The Plaza’s oddsmakers have Washington favored in only five games, although they list the Redskins as just one-point underdogs at home to the Seahawks in Week 4 and Chargers in Week 12.

The Redskins’ schedule isn’t too taxing, but they do face a tough 10-week stretch from Oct. 9-Dec. 11, when it looks like they have only one easy game. The Redskins play consecutive road games against the Broncos and Chiefs starting Oct. 9. They then host the 49ers Oct. 23, which appears to be their only breather.

Because the following week the Redskins travel to the Giants, their third road game in four weeks. Then the Redskins host the Eagles, play at Tampa Bay and have home games against the Raiders and Chargers before taking to the road for games at St. Louis on Dec. 4 and Arizona Dec. 11. Figuring the Redskins beat the 49ers and split at home against AFC West teams Oakland and San Diego, they would be 2-8 in those 10 games, perhaps 3-7 if they can beat the Giants, Bucs or Cardinals on the road.

Washington is favored by five points opening week at home against the Bears. The Redskins then play at the Cowboys on Monday night in Week 2, where they are definite underdogs. They have dropped nine in a row at Texas Stadium. The Redskins get an early bye in Week 3 and then face the Seahawks at home in Week 4, which could clarify just how good Washington is going to be.

From there the Redskins figure to be touchdown-underdogs on the road against the Broncos and Chiefs. The Redskins close their regular season with home games against the Cowboys and Giants, followed by a road game in Week 17 against the Eagles. The Redskins may get lucky here if the Eagles have clinched the division early like last year. Still, I don’t see Washington reaching .500. That would take eight wins.

Joe Gibbs never should have come back. It’s too bad the late Bud Wilkinson wasn’t around to advise him of that. Legends shouldn’t be disturbed. Not when it’s been more than 10 years since they last made their mark. Too much has changed.

Check out Stephen Nover`s previous NFL previews: Minnesota Vikings

Stephen Nover is a handicapper with Covers Experts.

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I am assuming you posted that article so we could all get a good laugh, and boy did I ever. Sure when you take every negative thing that has happened over the past 2 years and combine it into one article, you could make an argument that Gibbs doesn't know what he is doing. But that's not reality, and that was a terrible article. This was the part that made the least amount of sense to me though. Because when has Williams ever run a conservative scheme, and didn't we draft Carlos Rogers and return Shawn Springs?

"Their once formidable secondary isn’t so imposing now, which could mean fewer blitzes and a more conservative scheme. "

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

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That's it! Would anyone like my season tickets? I didn't realize how many "experts" know that the Redskins are going to suck this year. I shouldn't even waste my time cheering for my favorite team this year, because according to all the publications it will be done in vain!

I can only say this, I hope it's the same "experts" that said the Chargers were going to go 1-15 last year. Everything turned out fine for them 12-4 and a division title.

No offense to the "experts" but I think I will cheer for my favorite team in hopes that you are incorrect. And when the Redskins prove that the "experts" are incorrect I would appreciate it if all of those same "experts" stay the F off the bandwagon and let us faithful enjoy a great season.

:point2sky

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Originally posted by danbee

No offense to the "experts" but I think I will cheer for my favorite team in hopes that you are incorrect. And when the Redskins prove that the "experts" are incorrect I would appreciate it if all of those same "experts" stay the F off the bandwagon and let us faithful enjoy a great season.

:point2sky

Well if you change your mind I'll still happily take your season tickets. If you need me to I'll even find you a couple more articles from some experts talking about how the skins will suck, just to make you feel better about giving me your tickets.

:helmet: GO SKINS!!!!:helmet:

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Joe Gibbs never should have come back. It’s too bad the late Bud Wilkinson wasn’t around to advise him of that. Legends shouldn’t be disturbed. Not when it’s been more than 10 years since they last made their mark. Too much has changed.

Makes you wonder if any of these guys said the same thing about Dick Vermiel before he made adjustments upon his return.

It's borderline ridiculous to make a statement like that. :doh:

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Originally posted by arrowhead

Makes you wonder if any of these guys said the same thing about Dick Vermiel before he made adjustments upon his return.

It's borderline ridiculous to make a statement like that. :doh:

My thoughts exactly

:wewantd: :dallasuck :eaglesuck :gaintsuck

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Another crappy article on the Redskins by a person who never watches them (right Andyman?). If the over/under is 7.5, I say this Extremeskin site should wager a $1,000 on the over for this year. All winnings go to the site. I am in for $100. Anybody else in for this site?? Then they can track the number of days until "Payday"!

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heh, I love these articles, dont say anything new and just compile stuff from the last 4 months. This guy is probably bragging about how much of a genius writer he is, only to realize Pastabelly and Peter Queen beat him to the punch.

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It’s not like the Redskins are loaded at wide receiver. The best is smallish Santana Moss, who has yet to prove himself when marked as a team’s lead receiver.

In his first season as the Jets' lead receiver, Moss had 74 receptions, 1105 yards, 14.9 ypc, and 10 TDs. If he puts up those same numbers as the Skins lead receiver, I don't think anyone's gonna find fault with it... ;)

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last August the Redskins defense was supposed to be in trouble because Antonio Pierce was starting at middle linebacker after being a special teams performer for most of his four seasons in the NFL and because the team was depending upon the 'overrated' Fred Smoot at cornerback......................

now these guys are ready to have their busts enshrined in the NFL Hall of Fame?? :laugh: :laugh:

no secondary? I see veteran corners, a #1 pick developing as the nickel to be the future starter and a host of safeties that are familiar with the system and that know Gregg Williams and vice versa.

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