seantaylor=god

I think we really need to address CB next round. It’s hard to find good cornerbacks later than that.

But if Dean is available or blue chip RB I’m cool with it.

I would be slightly upset with Buffalo Nickel in round 2, because I feel like we would just be trying to address needs and ignoring value.

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I'm conflicted with that mock. It's Howell so that's cool.

 

But seeing all that talent come off the board before our pick is painful. 

True but look at the guys that went after. Tons of talent. We are so far back in 2nd I’d consider trading out of it for more picks depending on who is left there when we pick. But I’d love to have a higher second and be in the driver’s seat.

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

A couple of random thoughts on a couple of topics being discussed:

 

1) All of the draftniks who might be saying we reached for Johan Dotson are saying this based on THEIR evaluations. With all due respect to all of them, most of them have never actually run a draft room, been on the hook to make picks, and almost none of them have anywhere near the full picture because they can't participate in interviews, team visits, medical evaluations, etc.  

 

They basically judge the draft based on their personal opinion, and the further a team ventures from their opinion, the worse the grade.

 

As I said before, I am brand loyal to Mel, because he was the first, has a photographic memory, and has a big personality.  But his batting average over the years is probably worse than the people he criticizes.  

 

2) The same draftniks set public perception because with the exception of folks like @KDawg and @Skinsinparadise, VERY VERY few fans actually watch a lot of video and come to their own conclusions.  Even fewer are qualified to do so.  (I am certainly in the "doesn't do it and not qualified" group. I believe KD and SIP are both very qualified.)

 

So when you go in thinking "Kyle Hamilton might be a top 4 prospect" and "Olave is better by a mile than Dotson" it's mostly because those opinions have been spoken into existence by the people covering the draft.

 

3) The simple truth is at least half, if not more, of first round picks don't live up to expectations.  And that percentage goes down round by round to some extent.  However, starters can be found in every round of the draft.  

 

I said pre-draft, I would be fine trading down a few spots to get more picks, but I didn't want to go all the way back into the 20's.  This is what they did.  When they made the trade, they must have had at least 6 players they KNEW they wanted at 16, because then you KNOW you are going to get one of them.  

 

4) I have heard KC and GB were both interested in Dotson later in the round.  Those are 2 organizations who have had a good track record drafting receivers.  If they truly were interested, then the pick wasn't remotely a reach.

 

5) Regarding Payne.  Unless you get at least a 2nd, they're probably not going to trade Payne.  Because he's more valuable on the team for one more year than a 5th round pick. If they could get a second, then fine.  

 

6) with the next 3 picks, I would expect them to target secondary, OL depth, DL depth HOWEVER, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them pick a QB if one drops to the 4th.  With all the lip service to TH aside, he is entering the final year of his contract, and getting a rookie in with more upside who could either be a potential stop-gap in 2023 if Wentz crashes and burns burns or take the backup job in 2023.  This is what good organizations do with the most important position.  They keep throwing darts until the problem is truly solved, and then they keep throwing darts so they always have a contingency plan.  

Excellent post. I agree with you with the exception that I would take a 3rd this year for Payne. That pick should be a starter for 4 years and a long term win )if our personnel folks do their job) and I’ll take the downgrade in production from no Payne for 1 year (loss in the short term).

I’m hoping the run on DTs starts soon and a team with a late 2nd or 3rd doesn’t get their guy and trading for Payne is the back up plan. I would rather trade Payne today for a 2nd or 3rd than get a crappy comp pick in 2024.

We are going to have to address DT depth in draft, FA, and/or UDFA regardless.

8 minutes ago, Wyndorf25 said:

 

My Patriot friends up here are LIVID with Belichick for reaching on the OG from Chattanooga. lol

As they should be. It’s ****ing absurd. Did you see McVay’s (drunk) reaction?

They we’re laughing because they scouted him as an option in the 3rd -4th round. 

2 minutes ago, CommDownMan said:

 

This Fitzgerald-Spielberger evaluation is new to me and I saved this tweet to follow up.   Seems like it considers player cost as well.   Certainly a interesting method to dig into deeper. 

Mayhew said they have 2 tables they use for trades and one had the Saints ahead one had Commanders. He said most teams use 2 (even 3) different value charts.

Also, this draft with all the Covid guys who went back to school last year is deeper and so I think they value they got was excellent. 

Just now, Zim489 said:

My Wants for 47 in Tiers:

 

Muma Anderson Dean 

Pitre Brisker Cross Kerby

Watson Tolber (both extremely unlikely unfortunately as I liked them both significantly more than Dotson for us)

It seems like Muma has been not getting a lot of love in the media recently, I don’t know if teams were lower on him.

I feel strongly that we should stick to the board and not be dead set in filling the Buffalo nickel role next round, unless that player is BPA, which I think would be pretty unlikely based on the SS, undersized LB depth of the draft.

I like this list. I would add some more CBs though.

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Forgot about McReary. He'd be a hell of a pick up too.

I would love the pick. Ron talked about watching his top players performed against elite competition. And McCreary showed the **** out.

If his arms were 2 inches longer he would have gone in the first, which is silly.

Gotta go BPA here. Maybe a G/OT or CB. I could see S/LB though. I have a feeling they “reach” and take best prospect to play Buffalo nickel vs BPA in round 2.

This song is hilarious 

Dude has his own song!

”Greatest thing to come from Nazareth since Jesus” 😂

3 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Oh and Olave had a ridiculous 10 yards split of 1.45 (0.998 percentile) vs 1.56 for Dotson (0.802 percentile). That's probably more indicative of relevant NFL speed than their 40 times.

I’ve heard this, but why?

For a WR, wouldn’t we be more concerned with long speed? Once they get off the line it’s about how they accelerate to top speed and run by people. A ridiculous 10 yard split seems like they have a really nice start, from a 3 point stance on the ground, like a track athlete.

I think 3 cone is the best metric for WR and pretty much every position. Dotson didn’t perform well on that, though.

Highlights are sick, compared to Tyler Lockett, and a see a lot of Santana Moss’ game too. His quickness in space, playing big for his size, his leaping ability and contested catches are all fun to watch.

I’m concerned with his ability to get off press, but if he can get better at that I like the pick after trading down.

33 minutes ago, Conn said:

 

lol just very old celtic myth type stuff about saying a creature's name 3 times to summon or bind it. 🤓 Kind of a fantasy trope nowadays 

I thought it was a Dresden Files reference-great series.

1 hour ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Olave wasn't a reach at 11.  Dotson is a reach at 16.  

 

 

I think they would both be reaches at 11. I like Dotson at 16 better than Olave at 11. 

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Olave is basically a taller Tana so it makes sense

Not trying to be a dick- but is Olave a good PR guy? I think of Santana as more shifty than Olave. Although they are definitely both track/speed guys.

13 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

He’s playing on the 5th year option this upcoming season.  They executed the option last year, he’s playing on it.  Will be UFA next year.

****, you’re right. 
 

I’m still trying to trade him. 

11 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I've banged my dream-scenario drum a bunch of times already, but that dream scenario is swapping 11 and 13 with Houston and getting 68 back. Take Olave at 13. Of course, Houtson has to want to come up, my guess is they might for Jameson and/or Kyle Hamilton. 

I’m actually a fan of that if the FO is low on Kyle Hamilton (feels better fits for Buffalo nickel later) and is concerned with Jameson injury.

But I think I would just take Hamilton.

32 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

His 5th year option is the upcoming season.  He’s already played 4 seasons.

? He’s playing for us this year, we declined his option for next year. 

With so much $ likely  tied up in the Dline in the future it makes sense to get cheaper. They tried to sign Payne long term but he balked; I think he wants big money.

If I can get a 3rd or multiple mid rounds picks I’m trading him. 

36 minutes ago, skinsfan93 said:

Sorry buddy but we need skilled players. We can live with our line and defense for now. I agree Olave is a reach  at 11 but we need guys on offense. Look at the Bengals last year, they passed on Senaie Powell and took Chase even though they were decent at wide receiver. 

I’m not your buddy, chief- just kidding.

Olave is growing on me, I still like Drake London better.

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

This is also another way in which the Colts bent us over a barrell on the Wentz trade because we would have been just inside that cutoff if we'd stayed at 42.

I agree with you.

But to play devil’s advocate, according to media some teams have 15 first round grades. If the commanders are one of them, 5 spots in second round is likely not a big deal. 

20 minutes ago, skinsfan93 said:

The more I think about it unless we can trade down, I see us taking Olave because Williams, Wilson and London will be gone. If it is him, I could see him playing a bit in the slot and alternating with Curtis on the outside. 
 

Please football gods let London be there!!

If all those guys get picked in top 10 there will be better players than Olave available. A LT, a shutdown CB, etc. I don’t want to reach for WR. I do like Olave, I just think another player would be better at 11.

29 minutes ago, markmills67 said:

Could we get a 2nd round pick for Payne? 

This is a pretty bad interior Dline class according to a lot of experts. I think if teams in late first are targeting one and don’t get him on day 1, I could see a good team who wants a starter right away trading a late 2nd. Probably more like a 3rd this year, which I would take. You have to get value for players before they leave and we can sign a replacement level DT, there are a lot on the market. They won’t be as good as Payne, but I’m taking the picks. This isn’t a super bowl  roster anyway.

I was super frustrated when I read about this but piecing together some stuff makes me understand it more.

1. We talked about signing him to a long term deal- we obviously are very very far apart on that. I’m going to guess he wants Jon Allen money or more (18 mil a year) which would pay him in the top 5 DTs in the league. Even if he is worth that I would question the idea of tying that much money into the DL when we have Young and Sweat who will command big $. This is why I’ve been interested in trading Payne.

2. We value him somewhere between Settle and Allen, so LTD worth between 4-18 mil a year. Let’s say we think he’s worth 10 mil a year.

Basically, if he’s asking for a ludicrous amount on a LTD, we need to let him go to FA and another team can overpay. Pass rushing DTs like Allen get paid, run stuffing NT don’t. He clearly sees himself as a pass rusher and we don’t think he has that ability, thus the impasse.

Trade him if you can.