seantaylor=god

Any strong opinions on Evan Neal if he slips to 11? Massive dude.

9 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I think you have my plan confused.  I wouldn't be advocating cutting Roullier this offseason, but next offseason when that out comes into play.  At that point, you're not spending 18 million on the position.  You're actually saving money because, instead of paying 11.3 million for Roullier, you're paying the 5.1 million in dead cap + Linderbaum's rookie slot contract, which would be like 2.7 million if we picked him after 20.

This year's cap allocation would be Roullier's + Linderbaum's which comes out to less than 13 million.  For one season of two good IOLs, that's not bad.  And if Roullier can't find a home on the depth chart heading into the '23 season, then I can cut him and probably get a season of elite center play for less than I would be paying for Roullier in '23.  If they shine together, then that's the best outcome of all.

 

I disagree that I'm coming out behind on opportunity cost.  I'm gaining value from my draft picks by trading down to get Linderbaum in the 20s.  To me, Linderbaum in the 20s is going to approach +20 in value since I think he's five or six in the class, solidly in the first tier.  Plus I gain draft picks in the trade down, which is more opportunity for value.  Trading down and still getting Linderbaum are some of the most maximally valuable scenarios I can come up with, not having the benefit of hindsight yet.  I would be super confident that our offense would be much better with Linderbaum and Kenneth Walker, for example, than Roullier and London.  Especially when you factor in that Roullier might not still be on this team after next season, whether we pick Linderbaum or not.

I like your approach and I don’t disagree with you, because you are looking at the draft as a multi-year process.

I think it’s a completely moot point because we use the draft to fill needs and try and win games immediately under this  the Ron Rivera Regime™️ We have a coach as our GM. He’s not focused on anything beyond winning an extra game in our current season, in my opinion, which is a problem, but hopefully it works out!

Any chance this WR talk from FO is a smokescreen to prevent a team like Vikings, Baltimore, Eagles. Etc. to jump us for a guy like Stingley or Hamilton?

Its bizarre the leaks are so specific and consistent. 

Logan Paulson mentioned we were moving more toward zone from man blocking when he was talking about how they liked Saadiq Charles there and thought he would start for us (this was before Norwell signing). 

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep that's my issue with Rivera and the FO as a whole. I think in general they do a pretty good job of talent evaluation but they have zero clue when it comes to asset management and generating value. That's why I don't see us trading down because we don't really know how to play that game. We just aren't crafty or clever in that area.

See, I think we do trade down, when we have an elite prospect staring us in the face, because we are desperate to recoup draft capital. But for the same reasons you mentioned above.

My guess is we reach at 11 (Olave if London gone), then trade back from our second and take two lesser 3rd round picks (guard and DT)

13 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

This is infuriating and it's what happens when you put a coach in charge of building a team.  He won't trade Daron because he knows he needs him to win this year.  He is trying to buy time until he can get a credible replacement for him on the roster, and thus he's going to get absolutely zero long term value out of one of his five best players on his team.

It could be worse- he could franchise tag him twice.

2 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Jesus Christ no.  Stop trying to half ass two things. You took Wentz to be your starter. If you take a high rookie you’re hedging your bets before the games even start. Go hard one direction or the other 

 

would absolutely hate a round 2 QB. THEY NEVER WORK OUT 

I hope not round 2, but I think we are looking to roster a high quality backup with starter traits to learn this year and replace Heinicke next year. Probably one of the big names slips to the 4th like Carson Strong (if we are ok with medical).

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

He hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2018. 

So is your argument that he’s not an injury risk because he plays through his injuries? Or that he isn’t limited athletically compared to his transcendent play as a younger player?

I don’t understand what we’re arguing about. He’s a good player, I like him. I’m very concerned he will get hurt and not succeed on our team.

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

29 isnt old and it definitely isnt old for QB

He’s an old 29 with his significant injuries. He plays older than 29. He’s not the same guy athletically he was when he came into the league. That’s what I was getting at.

https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/carson-wentz/7450
 

Loose lips sink ships…

Why is there so much smoke about Drake London? I like London but are they trying to invite a trade or throw off the scent on another player?

Or can they just not help themselves?

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

I think that is very plausible. It may even be a case that Snyder doesn’t want to invest over and above what he needs to right now as the minimum, for reasons discussed in the other more appropriate threads as you say.

TB or KC, get it done. I want more than one pick though.

My realistic dream scenario for Payne (aside from fantasy 1st rounder) would be 3rd this year and second next year or a second this year. Maybe multiple mid round picks and a 2nd next year. I want a premium pick on either 2022 or 2023.

J Docston from Penn State- wow.

I think I like everything about him. Looks like Emmanuel Sanders or even Santana Moss.

I wonder if he would last to our 2nd rounder?

7 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I found this about Hamilton, his injury history.  Does it make any of you concerned?  He sure has been injured a lot in a short period of time.  Read the article for more specifics on the injuries.  Should be of some concern.  

 

2022 NFL Draft Impact: Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton | Cover 1

 

Kyle Hamilton Injury History

2014 – Undisclosed – Jr. High. Hamilton had an injury in 8th grade, but no diagnosis was ever reported.

2015 – Right Wrist Fracture – High school. Hamilton’s wrist injury ended his quarterback career and nearly ended his football career with multiple basketball scholarships coming in already.

2018 – Hip injury – High School. Hamilton injured his hip while diving for a loose ball while playing basketball. The article reports that he “blew out his IT band.”

2018 – Left Pinky Dislocation – Highschool. Hamilton played through an entire 7-on-7 tournament after dislocating his pinky in practice.

2020 – Left Low Ankle Sprain – 9/12 vs Duke. Rolled up while attempting to secure a fumble, Hamilton missed the next game (USF) before returning and playing every other game of the season.

2021 – Ankle surgery – In the spring of 2021, Hamilton underwent a minor ankle procedure, missing some of Notre Dame’s spring practices. 

2021 – Right Knee Fat Pad Impingement – 10/23 vs USC. Hamilton dealt with this condition for most of 2021 and missed the final 6 games of the season. 

Shoot, that seems like any competitive athlete. Those injuries don’t concern me like foot injuries, multiple ACLs, or worst of all, a concussion history (would take a player off the board  for me)

36 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Under 5% chance we get a first for Daron. And the only reason I give it that high is because I don’t like to speak in absolutes. 
 

Also, I’m not sure I’ve mentioned it… but if we draft a 3-tech to play 1-tech or draft a 1-tech in the first (especially at 11)…

 

I may have to write a strongly worded letter to the FO. Or something. 

I don’t disagree but when I watch Jordan Davis I see Albert Haynesworth. When he was motivated he was an incredible transcendent player. I think Jordan Davis’ floor is a excellent nose tackle but I think he can do more than that.

Just now, sebestian said:

seriously though.  If London and Hamilton are avail at 11, what do you do.  I have no idea anymore.  None I think I am draft tone def.

It really depends on if there are other WRs, or other safeties, that you think would be available at our 2nd rounder.

I would probably go Hamilton, only because it seems like every year there are more and more great WR prospects coming out of college, and I think guys like Hamilton don’t come out every year.

But I could see either argument.

41 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Thinking about Devin Lloyd, the age thing worries me a bit. I know break our age isn’t as much of a thing outside of the WR position, but if Lloyd’s beat year came as a 23 year old against mostly 19-21yo kids, I don’t think that’s meaningless. I also wonder whether it means that his body’s already relatively maxed out.

 

I’ve been out on Lloyd for this reason, and positional value, for a while. I’d only take him in a trade down at like 20 when he would probably be BPA.

No Stingley?

I like Wentz the player but he has real injury issues; he’s an old 29.

I hate what we gave up for him but I am excited about him as a player. I would have been doing backflips if we got him in FA. 
 

I really hope he puts it all together for us because he’s got elite tools.

22 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

The sharp FO that you are referencing turned a 2022 first, a 2021 third, and a 2022 seventh for a 2023 second, swaps of second and thirds in 2022 (moving five and nine spots) and a  37 yo Matt Ryan and $10M extra QB commitment.  

So what does that say about us lol? I guess you could argue they are average (made a mistake and moved on with decent compensation) and just found a significantly dumber more desperate FO to pawn off their mistake on. But I’m done talking about this, folks are right to want to discuss draft here.

Based on Mayhew’s latest comments I think we have a trade worked out. Something like if Malik Willis is available at 11 we have a trade worked out with the the Steelers since they probably can’t work a trade with Baltimore, and Saints and Eagles are threats to take him.

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Like Rivera or not like Rivera, i think its tough to argue he's a moron.  And he'd have to be a moron and ditto Hurney and Mayhew who are supposedly sharp people if they can't handle a simple negotiation where all you have to do is pit two interested teams against each other.  I think I could teach my pre-teen kid how to do that.  My point is i am not worried that some team is willing to offer the moon for Payne but instead clueless Ron will take the lowest offer or first bid they get.    To me that's not even in play as a possibility.

Maybe. But I would like to draw your attention to Exhibit A, the Wentz trade.

I get that we really wanted a QB and there was a real fear of missing out, combined with the scars from last year with Stafford.

But we got absolutely taken to the woodshed in that trade by a really sharp FO.

There is no evidence there was a robust trade market for Wentz. Lots of teams were waiting for him to be released (which the Colts certainly would have)  and happy to compete for him in FA with a handful of teams and give up nothing in draft compensation and pay less for Wentz on his contract also, where he would have never gotten the amount of money we are paying.

We gave up a 3rd, AND swapped 2nds, AND gave up a 3rd next year, which is almost certainly a 2nd, AND paid the entirety of the contract.

There is no evidence that this front office will properly obtain good value in a trade for Payne. I’m just hoping we can get something.

What is your value for having Payne as your starting DT this year and then losing him? 
 

1. Keep Payne for 2022 season, sign to LTD at top tier money in 2023. He’s not taking a discount here.

2. Keep Payne for 2022 season, let walk in 2023, receive 3rd round comp pick (at best with no big FA signing) in 2024 draft.

3. Trade Payne during draft for 2022 4th round pick and 2023 3rd round and 4th round picks.

4. Trade Payne for 2022 3rd round pick.

5. other- what is fair realistic compensation?

This is assuming no better offers obviously, and seems pretty realistic to me.

I’ve been beating the drum for trading Daron for a while, because I didn’t think we wanted to sign him to a LTD and you have to get value for players before they leave.

That said, cutting a starting rotational DT and not resigning the backup DT, if your plan was to trade Daron, is foolish.

I know folks don’t want to trash this FO. I like Rivera, he’s a good dude and has certainly helped the culture of the team.

But I don’t see any long strategy to the moves they make. It’s all short term thinking, it’s winning the skirmish/battle with no thought to the larger campaign and how the individual battles fit into the bigger picture.

Then again, it’s hard to have a real strategy when you have 2 (3?) GMs who answer to a HC. The military calls it unity of command. And we don’t ****ing have it.

We are a mess.

Rumor that Pittsburgh wants Willis but isn’t comfortable waiting until 20. They are calling all teams outside top 10 to look to trade. I think they are concerned Saints could take him mid first or another team trading up. At any rate, that’s a potential trade down from 11 to 20 and pick up a second, potentially more. Probably won’t get a first next year, I think last years trade was based on lots of competition, whereas this year is the opposite, with the Steelers really having the ability to trade with lots of teams.

I would explore the trade down for a second, maybe adding Payne to get their first next year also.
 

I think a first in 2023 is the most we will get for Payne. I’d probably prefer a first next year than a second this year, because I want the ability to target a QB or pick up 2  elite players. 
 

if I had to guess we end up trading Payne to a team with SB aspirations like Tampa Bay for a 2nd or 3rd this year and a mid rounder next year. 

I would have no problem with this if we resigned Settle. But we just lost all of our DT depth. Time for our “genius” D line coach to show how great he is with UDFA!

5 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

There is something going on with Daron.  There is bad juju between him and Allen and/or him and the team and we need to be proactive in how we handle this situation to make sure we don't let another one of our best players walk out of the door for nothing in return and with no decent plan for replacement already in-house.

Need to get value for him. We never seem to do it, though. This team historically buys high and sells low. Probably just get the comp pick when he walks.