bearrock

Seems unlikely atm that Penix will last till round 2

Just adding to the info, we either need NO win plus 1 of the remaining 4 or 3 out of 5 to beat NE on sos.

I would be on board with giving Panthers double credit for every win

With Dallas playing for the conference? Seriously doubt that.

I stand corrected 👌

If they lose to the Jets and we lose to Dallas, they add a 7-10 team to their sos while we add 12-5. Right off the bat, that's a 5 game gap we have to make up between the remaining games this week and next (it actually has to be 6 since we need to have worse sos to jump NE). Edit: as pointed by others, sos already factors in future opponents, so wrong info above. But still enough non-common opponents remaining to swing the sos between NE and us

We played the Rams once and Giants twice. A Rams loss adds one on the loss column for our sos and two on the win column. Reverse adds two on the loss and one on the win. A same record with weaker sos gets the higher pick, so we want more of the teams on our schedule to lose.

Could be a dream scenario if Cards and Pats can pull through

No, I'm not saying mechanically go off the charts. I'm saying that teams would adjust their trade valuation depending on the situation. A trade up value in a QB heavy draft would be different than a non-QB heavy draft. Trade up in a highly touted QB heavy draft would again be different. But regardless of what the exact deviation from the standard value chart would be, there is a point where most would consider it fair (a counter point would be 2012, where many considered it an overpay). I am not suggesting a fair trade value in 2024 for 4 to 1-3 looks like fair trade value in 2023 for 4 to 1-3, but there is a range where the 2024 value would be considered fair by most GMs.

Hmm, feels like there's a bit of overthinking going on here. Most teams have comparable draft value chart right? And I assume that would factor in the desirability of the top prospects (QB top heavy draft vs a lineman top heavy draft. Generational talent, etc). Assume you have a trade offer where it's considered fair by both teams and is neither a win or loss (which also probably means it would be considered a fair value trade by many other teams in the NFL). Would you prioritize your draft capital to trade up for a QB this year or stand pat and take Harrison Jr. plus the other picks? I don't think that necessarily requires knowing exactly what value the FOs of the league would assign to trades for picks 1-3 from 4. But I guess if the answer is it depends on the trade cost, that's an answer too. My question was more in the vein of if the trade is considered fair by most, would you prefer a QB or Harrison + picks that would have to be given up.

I think there's obviously variance in trade scenario and outliers (like our trade with the Rams), but there's a general range for a fair value trades and that's why I added the qualifier assuming typical trade value. (Cost to move to 1 from 4 would likely entail 4th pick, day 2 pick this year, next year's first and another 3rd or 4th. Pick swap with 3 would be probably couple of 3rd/4th round picks with another day 2 pick next year. 4th to 2nd would obviously be somewhere in between.)

An open question for all of the draft gurus: If we pick 4th and suppose it's clear that QBs will go 1, 2, 3. Would you prefer to stay 4th and pick Harrison Jr., trade up, or trade back (assuming typical trade value for trade up or down, whatever that may be)? If you prefer to trade up, is it for any of the 3 QBs or just 1 or 2 of the 3 QBs?

It's difficult to say whether us and NE losing out results in us in 3rd because every win/loss of non common opponent impacts sos. This link has sos rooting tool that shows which results to root for in sos between us and NE. https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/tiebreaker_rooting

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! As some of our recent outages reminded us, this is truly a special place.

It's levied and collected by the county under state law authorization. I think it's fine as a form of progressive tax as well. It's rough capture using car value as proxy (which is obviously imperfect). The real concern is what @Ball Security raised. Youngkin's proposal is not about making the tax code more sensible, it's a tax cut in disguise. Also @EmirOfShmo's point too (I suppose we may have to wait to see the exact legislative text to see if they divert the sales tax increase to county)

Probably too late based on your itinerary, but for future reference, Get away today and Undercover Tourist has a bit of a discount compared to official prices. They are legit resellers/travel agents, so no worries about scam tickets.

If you had to use toilet paper, but if they were missing.... 😳

YOU MONSTER!!!

Apparently he got "a" ball, but Giannis didn't think it was the game ball.

Man, he was so good in every role I saw him in. So young too. RIP....

I still can't believe they took Avidja over Haliburton

I think he meant for luxury tax purposes, Ohtani's contract counts as 46 mil per year. Contracts are valued at net present value, so heavy deferral brings down the aav. It's also not the financial boon that many seem to think. No one savvy with money is going to defer access to 680 mil for 10 years interest free, just to avoid 12% tax (federal tax is locked in at deferred income vesting, so he doesn't avoid that even if he moves to Japan). He saves 70+ mil, which any decent investment firm can recoup in their sleep (and a heck of a lot more) over 10 years with his annual post-tax salary. He's doing it to create more cap room for the team. Tax saving is just a little side bonus.

Except that's not what Boswell wrote. Sounds pretty spot on to me.

If I were the Dodgers, I would be much more concerned about their rotation then their hitting. They have work to do in 2024 and 2025 even if Ohtani comes back by then. Also, not convinced of the long term viability of Ohtani as a starting pitcher. Two Tommy Johns before age 30. Hard to fathom that additional work load didn't contribute to the injuries.

I really didn't think it could get worse.... ffs....