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Official Trump Does East Asia Thread


FanboyOf91

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Thinking we will need a "pending war with North Korea" thread in the not so distant future.

 

A couple main factors in play: 

 

NK is a legitimately dangerous rogue state and Kim Jung Un seems to value false bravado over negotiation to hold onto power. 

 

Trump also values the same false bravado for the same reasons. Can't look weak! 

 

So that has heading down the path toward escalating conflict. 

 

Icing on the cake? A war with North Korea would likely do a lot to help Trump *politically* so there's little to no incentive on that end for him to avoid it. 

 

Downside? Lots of dead people. NK may have the capability to deliver a nuke to Japan. Definitely Seoul. Adding that we definitely now know they have some serious chemical weapons (see VX assassination). Not to mention the loads of conventional weapons they have pointed across the border. The "X factor" that I'm not sure anyone truly knows is to what extent the North Korean people and armies fight foreign invading troops. On one hand they are scared to death of their govt and have experienced atrocities, starvation, etc. On the other hand they've also been completely disconnected from the rest of the world and brainwashed into thinking US troops are bloodthirsty rapists that are coming for them. I think we can destroy their govt and the army's ability to communicate relatively easily. But do the *millions* of NK reservists fight against invaders or largely welcome them after the regime is toppled.

 

Another factor here is China's role. They've sheltered NK for years, largely because they don't want a US friendly state bordering them. They aren't going to fight alongside NK against the US and allies, but I'd be very curious about how much they'd help in the fight or at least the rebuilding process. Having them on board with a transition plan could be a big asset and help with stabilization in the future. Need to bring them to the table on this.

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The administration source said U.S. officials, including Tillerson, had privately warned China about broader "secondary sanctions" that would target banks and other companies that do business with North Korea, most of which are Chinese.

 

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My concern here is that the woefully amateurish administration sees things in such simplistic terms, and thinks carving the world up into "spheres of influence" is a positive move. Give Russia a free hand in Eastern Europe, let China expand to dominate SE Asia and they can strongarm some of those locally troublesome places like Cuba or Venezuela without interference.

 

Of course the people that DO understand this doesn't work are the ones that didn't sleep through history class, but they are no part of this operation, those damnably smart elites with all their "facts"!

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