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The Brexit Thread


No Excuses

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https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/03/25/finally-parliament-takes-control-of-brexit

 

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In each case, the amendments had used the same mechanism: Standing order 14.1, which gives government the power to control parliamentary business. This was MPs setting their own timetable and deciding what they would debate and how.

 

In the hours leading up to the vote, Brexit-supporting MPs like Bill Cash tried to suggest this was somehow unconstitutional, but they had got the whole thing the wrong way round. The government was not given control of parliamentary timetable by God-given constitutional right. The House of Commons decides its rules. It is sovereign. And if it decides to change those rules, or put them aside for a moment, then it is able to do so.

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The arcane and tedious-sounding terminology of standing orders hid a much more dramatic reality: this was a decisive moment in a long-running constitutional battle. Since the referendum, May had seized the narrative of a mystical 'will of the people' to try to act without paying any mind to parliament. This distinction was nonsense, of course. It was precisely because her hard Brexit plans failed to win a majority in the 2017 general election that she ended up so helpless, running a rag-tag minority government. The people hadn't given her a mandate. It was imaginary.

But imaginary or not, she pushed it as far as she could. Last week she made a grim little speech outside No.10 in which she pitted MPs against her dreamed-up projection of the public. It was the kind of speech a despot would make. The only thing that made it pitiful rather than terrifying was that it was delivered with so little grace or strategic sense that it ended up having the precise opposite effect to the one she intended.

 

In the end, it managed to reverse government's control. Sufficient MPs were alarmed to switch sides and finally give their support to a indicative votes amendment. That means they now control the timetable on Wednesday and can explore ways to find a compromise position outside of the dead hand of the government. There are no guarantee that anything meaningful can be summoned out of that process. But it is a start. And that is all it is meant to be. Letwin was clear that he did not think it would produce a majority right off the bat. But it can initiate a process which might end with one.

 

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Re: falsely representing their vote in current polls. Three takeaways:

 

1. If a referendum is held again, no one in their right minds would vote to Leave again.

 

2. Right wing populism at its core is a massive failure of policy. Brexit is maybe the most consequential nationalist/populist event of this decade, cheered on by every right wing dumbass in the US and in Europe, and it's showing itself to be a complete failure with terrible consequences.

 

3. Globalism is here to stay.

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4 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

What does it mean that "The European Council has agreed unanimously that the Withdrawal Agreement will not be re-opened"?

 

There are, as far as I can tell, three outcomes possible.

 

1. The UK leaves the EU with a deal, so they have some plan for borders, Ireland, trade, etc.

 

2. The UK leaves with no deal, and there is a self-inflicted disaster, not the least of which is a hard border in Northern Ireland which would effectively undo the Good Friday accords and possibly spark new violence.

 

3. The UK revokes Article 50 and stays in the EU.

 

May negotiated a deal for #1, but a good number of Brexiteers don't like it because it's not drastic enough, especially in how Ireland is treated (because it would keep the border open and possibly allow a path in they're trying to shut down) so they've been voting down May's deal and demanding that she renegotiate it.

 

The EU is saying "Nope... We have a deal". No renegotiation.

 

I guess this makes either No Deal or reversal and Remain more likely.

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