Thoughts on Cousins and the next few weeks

[ncr2h]

How about the rate at which they turn the ball over?

 

RG3 turnover rate (INT% + FUM%): 4.7%

Cousins turnover rate (INT% + FUM%): 4.5%

 

(this is only including games in which Cousins played significant time - Cle, Atl, Dal, NYG, and Jax)

 

RG3 fumbles more (league leader in fumbles since he entered the league), Cousins throws more picks.  You could make the argument that there should be some sort of discount factor applied to fumble % in order to arrive at the likelihood of a turnover.  Since fumble recoveries are random, it would make sense to discount fumble % by 50% to reflect the fact that, on average, you would expect the offense to recover its own fumble.  If you make that adjustment, their turnover rates are the following:

 

RG3 turnover rate: 3.30%

Cousins turnover rate: 3.25%

 

So unless you want to argue that RG3's fumbles shouldn't count because he has defied statistics and recovered more than half of them, then it looks like at this point that the worst you can say is that Cousins and RG3 turn the ball over at more or less the same rate.

[Taylor703]

Wait a minute, I'm confused here? Are you factoring in fumbles lost or just fumbles in general? It seems like you're taking fumbles that do not result in turnovers and counting them as turnovers. Again it could be me just reading it wrong but that seems to be the way you've presented it.

[steve09ru]

Wait a minute, I'm confused here? Are you factoring in fumbles lost or just fumbles in general? It seems like you're taking fumbles that do not result in turnovers and counting them as turnovers. Again it could be me just reading it wrong but that seems to be the way you've presented it.

 

I think you have to count fumbles as a whole and not just fumbles lost because the potential for a change of possession is there anytime the ball is out.

 

So what he did was take 50% of the total number of fumbles and applied that to get a true turnover count.

 

so they're both in the 4.5% range with 100% counted as Turnovers or 3.3% with only 50% as turnovers

[Taylor703]

I think you have to count fumbles as a whole and not just fumbles lost because the potential for a change of possession is there anytime the ball is out.

No lol. You can't bring up someone's turnover rate in comparison to another and include fumbles that weren't lost. That's the most absurd way of cherry picking stats I've ever seen.

[dsciambi]

No lol. You can't bring up someone's turnover rate in comparison to another and include fumbles that weren't lost. That's the most absurd way of cherry picking stats I've ever seen.

 

Why not? It's a tracked stat.

 

It's not the same as say, an interception that gets dropped. A fumble is the quarterback losing the ball. Was he lucky and one of his own players recovered it? Does that part actually matter?

 

I'd still like to see what his actual turnover rate compared to Cousins is.

[steve09ru]

No lol. You can't bring up someone's turnover rate in comparison to another and include fumbles that weren't lost. That's the most absurd way of cherry picking stats I've ever seen.

It's not cherrypicking at all - here's a list of team fumbles last year and the amount lost.  The average from last year fumble to fumble lost is 47.6.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-fumbles-and-fumbles-lost/2013/

 

In 2012, we fumbled 26 times and lost 6, the Chiefs fumbled 26 times and lost 17, Buffalo 23 and 17, AZ/MIA 25 and 13, Denver 22 and 14

 

Last year for WAS, 30 and 15 (50%)

[Taylor703]

Why not? It's a tracked stat.

 

It's not the same as say, an interception that gets dropped. A fumble is the quarterback losing the ball. Was he lucky and one of his own players recovered it? Does that part actually matter?

 

I'd still like to see what his actual turnover rate compared to Cousins is.

Because if it doesn't result in a turnover than how is it relevant to a discussion about turnover rate?

[Califan007 The Constipated]

I think you have to count fumbles as a whole and not just fumbles lost because the potential for a change of possession is there anytime the ball is out.

 

 

So are we also including "dropped" INTs/passes that "easily could have been" picked off/etc? Throwing a pass that hits a CB in the chest but is dropped should count more towards a QBs "turnover" percentage (even though it wasn't, you know, turned over lol) than a perfect hand-off that the RB doesn't do enough to secure and ends up dropping.

[steve09ru]

So are we also including "dropped" INTs/passes that "easily could have been" picked off/etc? Throwing a pass that hits a CB in the chest but is dropped should count more towards a QBs "turnover" percentage (even though it wasn't, you know, turned over lol) than a perfect hand-off that the RB doesn't do enough to secure and ends up dropping.

Those aren't tracked - if they were then I'd be more than happy to take those into consideration.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

I think you have to count fumbles as a whole and not just fumbles lost because the potential for a change of possession is there anytime the ball is out.

 

So what he did was take 50% of the total number of fumbles and applied that to get a true turnover count.

 

The only "true turnover count" would be, you know, the number of actual turnovers lol...any equation that tries to assign a turnover to a play that did NOT result in a turnover is flawed from the get-go.

[ncr2h]

Like I said, you could try and argue that probability won't catch up to the guy who is the league leader in fumbles since he came into the league.  I'm not going to hop on that bandwagon because I think it's been beaten to death by various statisticians, but if you want to go there you can.  There do seem to be guys who get lucky with the fumbles bouncing back up in their hands (Romo and Griffin come to mind).  If you want to argue that these guys are just lucky and defy statistics, that's okay with me.

 

Let's say that we all believe in magic, and that RG3 has magical powers to recover 75% of his fumbles instead of just 50% like everyone else.  Here are the two QB's respective turnover rates:

 

RG3: 2.6%

Cousins: 3.25%

 

Is this a meaningful difference?  Keep in mind you need to literally believe in magical powers to get this far.

[Supreme Wu]

I get his point and it makes some sense, but it's not comparing turnovers, it's comparing ball security.

 

Maybe splitting hairs but lumping something in as a turnover when it's not just confuses things.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Those aren't tracked - if they were then I'd be more than happy to take those into consideration.

 

Just because it's tracked doesn't mean a percentage of recovered fumbles should actually count as lost fumbles.

 

And if you ARE going to do that, it needs to be at a significantly lower percentage in the equation. INTs and lost fumbles can be equal, but recovered fumbles should count as 10% of a fumble or something along those lines. But even that would be screwy in my mind.

 

At any rate, RG3 lost 7 fumbles, Cousins lost 2. That makes:

 

Griffin - 24 turnovers

Cousins - 12 turnovers

 

The actual turnover rate would be those numbers divided by the number of plays each QB has played. And by the way, why the hell would we NOT include all of Cousins' playing time?.."only those games where he played significant time" lol--give me a break. If you're on the field and you turn the ball over, it counts. Doesn't matter if you only played one down or played the entire game. It counts.

[celticsalmon]

[Califan007 The Constipated]

I get his point and it makes some sense, but it's not comparing turnovers, it's comparing ball security.

 

Maybe splitting hairs but lumping something in as a turnover when it's not just confuses things.

 

Exactly (part in bold).

 

It's also like wanting to say a WR should be credited with a drop when he bobbles the ball before catching it.

[Thinking Skins]

So are we also including "dropped" INTs/passes that "easily could have been" picked off/etc? Throwing a pass that hits a CB in the chest but is dropped should count more towards a QBs "turnover" percentage (even though it wasn't, you know, turned over lol) than a perfect hand-off that the RB doesn't do enough to secure and ends up dropping.

Yeah, and what about throws into double coverage, cause ya know, those can also be picked, or at least are more likely to be picked? What about batted balls?

There are so many types of "almost" turnovers. Heck that play by Rambo could count as an "almost turnover" but he was a second or two too late and got burned.

[ncr2h]

Ok, well we'll do another update on this statistic as we get more and more data on Cousins.  So far, the trend has been that the more data we get on Cousins, the more those one-off appearances look like flukes.  40% of his interceptions were thrown during the 36 pass attempts he made in relief duty.

 

We'll check back with you in 6 weeks to see what new adjustments we need to make in the calculation so that RG3 comes out ahead by 0.5%.

[darrelgreenie]

Wow, settle down. I'm talking about how when RG3 looked terrible last year, everyone has said it was due to the offensive line being the cause of it.

 

Everyone also had said the offensive line was terrible last week. So I'd like to know whether it's because the line is actually bad, or if there's something about Griffin's playstyle that makes them worse.

 

This wasn't me slamming RG3 at all. It was actually a completely neutral post where, after Cousins plays however many games, we'll know whether "the offensive line is terrible" is due to QB play or if they're actually bad.

I don't agree that Griffin was 'terrible' last year at all.

RE: Last week OL

I think if you know what you're looking at and/or you look up the right metrics. You can answer the question about the OL on your own.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Yeah, and what about throws into double coverage, cause ya know, those can also be picked, or at least are more likely to be picked? What about batted balls?

There are so many types of "almost" turnovers. Heck that play by Rambo could count as an "almost turnover" but he was a second or two too late and got burned.

 

We need "Almost TDs", too lol...That long bomb to Robinson last year that he didn't secure all the way through? That counts as a TD for Griffin.

[darrelgreenie]

...Jacksonville was Cousins' worst game as a pro in terms of taking sacks.  He took 2 sacks.  On over 30 dropbacks.

But you know what Cousin's sack % is this year? 33%. The Jags only pressured him on 6 drops but Cousins was sacked 2 times.

Griffin was pressured on 24 drops but was only sacked 4 times or 17% of the time.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/data/signature.php?tab=signature&season=2014&stype=r&pos=qbu&teamid=32&filter=0

How many times are you gonna cherry pick stats only to have them be proven wrong?

We all are gonna rally around Kirk, give it a rest.

[ncr2h]

But you know what Cousin's sack % is this year? 33%. The Jags only pressured him on 6 drops but Cousins was sacked 2 times.

Griffin was pressured on 24 drops but was only sacked 4 times or 17% of the time.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/data/signature.php?tab=signature&season=2014&stype=r&pos=qbu&teamid=32&filter=0

How many times are you gonna cherry pick stats only to have them be proven wrong?

We all are gonna rally around Kirk, give it a rest.

 

Cousins gets the ball out quickly, which minimizes the number of pressures he racks up.  RG3 holds the ball longer than normal (3rd longest in the league during week 1 2014 is what I read somewhere).  Your stats do indeed support that common observation, but I'm wondering what the point you were trying to make was?  Is it that RG3 should get a golden star every time he holds the ball long enough for the defender to hit him?

[steve09ru]

 

Just because it's tracked doesn't mean a percentage of recovered fumbles should actually count as lost fumbles.

 

And if you ARE going to do that, it needs to be at a significantly lower percentage in the equation. INTs and lost fumbles can be equal, but recovered fumbles should count as 10% of a fumble or something along those lines. But even that would be screwy in my mind.

I didn't state the original post nor did I come up with the information - I was simply responding to someone who asked about those numbers

The actual turnover rate would be those numbers divided by the number of plays each QB has played. And by the way, why the hell would we NOT include all of Cousins' playing time?.."only those games where he played significant time" lol--give me a break. If you're on the field and you turn the ball over, it counts. Doesn't matter if you only played one down or played the entire game. It counts.

 

And again - I didn't make that post and only stated what was meant by those numbers - that's why I said potential or turnover opportunities when I explained it.  I said the number was flawed but also said it's a valid concern, never did I say that was the actual case.  I didn't make the information so maybe you need to read a bit more clearly

[Califan007 The Constipated]

I didn't state the original post nor did I come up with the information - I was simply responding to someone who asked about those numbers

 

And again - I didn't make that post and only stated what was meant by those numbers - that's why I said potential or turnover opportunities when I explained it.  I said the number was flawed but also said it's a valid concern, never did I say that was the actual case.  I didn't make the information so maybe you need to read a bit more clearly

 

I was tallking in general, not specifically to you in that post...

 

 

Cousins gets the ball out quickly, which minimizes the number of pressures he racks up.  RG3 holds the ball longer than normal (3rd longest in the league during week 1 2014 is what I read somewhere).  Your stats do indeed support that common observation, but I'm wondering what the point you were trying to make was?  Is it that RG3 should get a golden star every time he holds the ball long enough for the defender to hit him?

 

I think the point was, when each IS pressured, Cousins is twice as likely to be sacked.

[Taylor703]

Ok, well we'll do another update on this statistic as we get more and more data on Cousins.  So far, the trend has been that the more data we get on Cousins, the more those one-off appearances look like flukes.  40% of his interceptions were thrown during the 36 pass attempts he made in relief duty.

 

We'll check back with you in 6 weeks to see what new adjustments we need to make in the calculation so that RG3 comes out ahead by 0.5%.

But you purposefully left data out to skew the numbers. You removed some of Cousins games and then put in fumbles as turnovers, regardless of them resulting in turnovers or not. You seem like an intelligent guy but does your love for Cousins run so deep that you'll intentionally flub things until you get the result you want?

While you're at it, why not extrapolate Cousins numbers from all of his games played without removing anything from the data? Push all the chips into the pile and see what you come up with over a 16-game season. Again, you're not allowed to remove anything from the equation. Nothing adjusted for weather or amount of time in the game.

The reason you won't do this is because the numbers will tell the truth about Kirk and this fanbase simply doesn't want to hear it. I like the guy, I really do but he's an average-below average player who's career trajectory projects as a back up. He's Josh McCown or Shaun Hill and that's not a terrible thing. They can come off the bench and give you some great play but when given the job as a starter they just don't work out. I can't explain why this happens to certain players, it just does.

And before anybody decides to kill me for giving my opinion of Kirk, I want you guys to know I'd happily be wrong about this. If he turned out to be a franchise QB than we all win in the end. I'm going to root like hell for him and pray he becomes an amazing player and if he solves the issue we've had at the QB position for MY entire life I'll be ecstatic.

[Da_Truth]

I said this before but being this thread is about Cousins I will say it again. Kirk Cousins has the potential to be a franchise QB. And to answer the question of the thread starter, if everyone stays healthy especially the O-LINE I believe we can win double digit games with Cousins this year. 10-6.