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Picks, Pats, and Pardons (Week 2)

kleese

By kleese
in The Stadium

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kleese

kleese

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http://edkleese.blogspot.com/2014/09/picks-pats-and-pardons-week-2.html?m=1

Season: 9-7

Last Week: 9-7

Redskins: 1-0

ATS: 1-3

Lock: 0-1

If you are one of the three people that read this closely each week, you may notice a discrepancy in my record: I made a last minute change of my pick in the Redskins-Texans game and simply forgot to adjust the blog entry. You can choose to believe me or not; but it would be a very weird argument in which to engage seeing no one is paying me for my picks or anything. As is typical, nothing made sense in the NFL last week. For example, I was wary of the Chiefs against Tennessee, but never would have guessed the Titans would go into Arrowhead and annihilate the home team. Same story in St. Louis where the Vikings did the same thing. Handicapping the NFL has gone from challenging to damn near impossible.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: I tell myself every year not to overthink my picks or talk myself out of a gut feeling. I never listen. I think the Steelers are in a great position this week to come in a pull an upset. The Ravens were a bit surprised by the Bengals on Sunday and they are dealing with the whole Ray Rice mess on a short week. But I keep convincing myself that there is no way the Ravens are going to fall to 0-2 with both losses at home to their two main divisional foes. If they lose this one, they are in a huge trouble already. Going against the gut.

Ravens 23, Steelers 21

Detroit at Carolina: Hard to tell on Monday Night where the Lions greatness stopped and where the Giants ineptitude started. But there is no doubt that Detroit was ready to roll and essentially put that game away in the first quarter. But we've seen this act from the Lions before; impressive wins followed up by puzzling losses. So I'm not ready to go overboard on them quite yet. Carolina had one of the more impressive outings in the league last week, beating the Bucs on the road fairly handily with Derek Anderson at QB. Going to cast a shaky vote for the upset here.

Lions 24, Panthers 20

Miami at Buffalo: I was very confident in week one that the Bills would get handled with ease by the Bears, which is why Chicago was my lock of the week AND my selection in our survivor league. Buffalo took care of that in a hurry. With their Bills a surprising 1-0 and getting the great news this week that the team is likely staying put, Bills fans will show up loud and proud on Sunday and help their team pull the mild upset.

Bills 20, Dolphins 16

Jacksonville at Washington: No idea what to make of the Jags effort in Philly. Holding a 17-0 lead early in the second half was incredibly impressive. Getting outscored 34-0 the rest of the way was not. I think the most logical deduction is that the Jags caught the Eagles off guard early, but had no counter once the Eagles threw their first punch. I DO know what to make of the Redskins effort in Houston-- not much. This will be on the ugly side with the Redskins pulling it out late.

Redskins 23, Jaguars 20

Dallas at Tennessee: It was really bad in Dallas and it could have been much, much worse. Romo holds that team together, but his performance begs the question: How much longer can HE hold together? Titans continue a hot start with a methodical win.

Titans 26, Cowboys 22

Arizona at New York Giants: Didn't see anything at all on Monday that leads me to believe the 2014 Giants have a snowball's chance at making the playoffs this year. Having said that, I respect Tom Coughlin too much to think that they'd possibly get off to another dreadful start ala last year. Early afternoon kickoffs on the east coast for west coast teams are always an issue as well.

Giants 19, Cardinals 17

New England at Minneosta: Never a good idea to overreact to week one. If you believe that, then stop reading now. I think there are some legit issues in NE. The defense looked shaky in Miami. There stubborn insistence on never adding a truly dangerous skill player might also be catching up to them. Quietly the Vikings ended the season fairly strong last year absolutely destroyed the Rams last week. Hardly a Matt Cassel fan, but in short bursts he can be effective. Calling an upset here and natives will get restless in Boston.

Vikings 27, Patriots 25

New Orleans at Cleveland: Browns fans had to be a little disappointed that the Saints lost in Atlanta week one. A win would have made it more likely they cost into Cleveland and not take the Browns seriously. But their loss, combined with the Browns impressive rally in Pittsburgh likely equals NO giving a top notch effort on Sunday.

Saints 31, Browns 21

Atlanta at Cincinnati: Matt Ryan is really good. Seems like a simplistic and obvious statement, but he is often overlooked in the general QB discussion. He's really good. I'm not in love with that roster, but they are strong at WR. And Ryan is really good. But the Bengals defense is also really good. Look for the score to stay lower than expected this week.

Bengals 22, Falcons 19

St. Louis at Tampa Bay: A little ironic; the Rams and (especially) the Bucs were two of the more popular "cute" picks this pre season. And they both went out and got blasted....at home. Both offenses looked below average and in the Rams case, downright horrid. Gotta lean TB here, but I'm not convinced either of these teams is any good at all.

Bucs 20, Rams 16

Seattle at San Diego: Goodness gracious Seattle looks incredible. If you are looking for deeper analysis than that, you won't find it here. And of all the types of offenses that might succeed against the Seahawks, I think the Chargers is particularly unlikely to get it done--finesse based with small WR's and a shifty, non-brusing stable of RB's. Seahawks will eat em up.

Seahawks 25, Chargers 17

Houston at Oakland: I saw the Texans live last weekend and was wholly unimpressed. The exception is JJ Watt, who honestly might be as good of a defensive linemen as I've ever seen. He is dominating games on an LT-esque level, and that is not hyperbole. Just an absurd force of nature. But he is only 1 of 22. The offense is limited, and the back seven on defense is suspect. Not to say that Oakland is any better in any of these categories, but they will find a way to win 3-5 games this year: this is one of them.

Raiders 19, Texans 16

Green Bay at New York Jets: This is just an awful spot for the Jets. Just awful.

Packers 30, Jets 14

Kansas City at Denver: Whenever my two year son knows he's in trouble or something bad is taking place, he stops in his tracks and says "dat not good." The Chiefs just got rolled at home by Tennessee, lost their best defensive player for the year, and now head into Denver. Dat. Not. Good.

Broncos 38, Chiefs 21

Chicago at San Francisco: Really caught off guard by the Bears loss to Buffalo. I had them pegged as a contender in the NFC, winning at least 10 games. While I'm fine preaching the "don't overreact to week one" mantra, it's hard to overlook a home loss like that. And now they walk straight into the opening of the Niners new stadium on national TV. Part of me wants to throw the big upset out there, but my confidence in Chicago is too shaken.

49ers 27, Bears 20

Philadelphia at Indianapolis: Interesting game. I was laughing at the Eagles and patting myself on the back for predicting defenses would catch up to Chip Kelly a bit this year. Jags 17, Eagles 0 at the half. I was living it up. And then the Eagles served it up to the tune of 34 points in about 3 minutes. The ability to explode like that is impressive and probably says more about them than falling in the 17-0 hold did. I knew the Colts were Luck-dependent, but on Sunday Night it was pretty eye opening how one dimensional they are. A shaky vote for the home team.

Colts 33, Eagles 31

Against the Spread

1. Raiders (+3) vs. Texans

2. Jaguars (+6) at Redskins

3. Bengals (UNDER 48.5) vs. Falcons

4. Seahawks (-5.5) at Chargers

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Duckus

Duckus

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Always enjoy reading your blog every week - so I guess I am one of those 3 readers.

 

The big red flag is the Pats. What is Belichick/Brady record coming off a loss over the past decade? It has to be something truly insane. If you are right and they lose this game it will be one of the biggest signs that the magic in NE is finally running out. 

 

Just heard on the BS Report that NE is 2-6 in their last 8 road games. Interesting.

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skinsforlife101

skinsforlife101

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Agree with most of the picks but there is no way that the Giants are going to beat the Cardinals. the Giants looked horrible last week in every facet of the game. I may even say they looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. if Minnesota could generate some offense I think they have a legitimate chance of beating New England

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kleese

kleese

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I told you last week that the sharp money in Vegas was on the Texans. More often than not, the sharp money is right. Fairly easy win for the wise guys last week.

Unfortunately, same story this week. Hearing big money from the sharps going on the Jags. Now, that isn't necessarily a death sentence for us because we could win the game by 5 and they'd still be right. But the smart money is on Jax keeping it very close or winning outright.

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kleese

kleese

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Wow. I liked the pick pre-AP arrest but I think the combo of losing him and the distraction kind of rules them out. Don't think they're in a good spot to drop the Pats to 0-2.

I don't feel good about it anymore either, but just decided to leave it as sort of a why not

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