Art Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 No, this isn't Om's thread of a pirate as they see themselves and a deckhand as the rest of us see them. This game is as close to a guaranteed victory as I can envision for the rest of the year. I've always had some confidence about playing Tampa. We match up very well with them. We don't match up as well with the Eagles. But, Tampa is a team with strengths that most teams can't fully counter with strengths of their own. The offensive line is doing a very fine job of protecting Ramsey when the opposition just brings four men. Since the Jets game where they got some individual pressure in those situations, we've only given up a couple of hits against Ramsey in such situations. Dockery got beat a couple of times by Walker this last week as an example of some of that. But, the Bucs strength is to force the QB to hurry throws with good up front pressure. That forces relatively short throws where the Bucs have great speed, usually better than the opposition's, to close down and limit plays and drives making it very hard to sustain anything against them. We are a team that is ideally suited to play this Bucs team. We have the offensive line capable of slowing down their pass rush. The Bucs aren't a team that likes to do a ton of blitzing. We haven't been a team that's been great at picking up the blitz, but, remember now, we've played teams that specialize in that style of play this year in Atlanta, Philly and New England, and to a lesser degree the Giants. The first three teams blitz all the time. They are a machine and are accustomed to blitzing in a well designed and disguised fashion. This is going to cause an offensive line with some new parts, playing with a young QB and a young backfield and young receivers some difficulty in adjusting to. Tampa is a team that isn't as skilled using the blitz. They aren't as imaginative or as well practiced. You often see when we blitz how we overshoot the QB or get stuck on blocks. This isn't because we don't have the athletic ability to blitz. It's because we do so little of it that we're just not that good at it. The point is, the Bucs may be forced to generate pass rush with the blitz and they should be a team you can take a bit more advantage of when they do this than the Eagles were. Watching the Eagles game over again it was striking to see how well designed their blitzes were. The first sack on Ramsey by Simoneau was a play you couldn't even see him lined up from behind the QB he was so ideally positioned. Watching the game over also showed just how off Ramsey was. Just how bad his reads were. And, just how often if he had just a MOMENT more to throw we have openings all over the field. The Bucs probably won't generate a tremendous pass rush with just their four down linemen against us. If they stay back in coverages, and play their Cover-2, Spurrier will get to the right play and start to pick them apart. If they have to pressure, they aren't as accustomed to playing the sort of tight man coverage that requires and they can be exploited behind the blitz if we can improve just a tad in picking it up. The Bucs don't have a great running game. Losing Alstott may help their running game though as Pittman is a nice, fast, straight-ahead runner that can give us trouble. We have the sort of matchups on the outside that can allow us to press their short passing game and limit some of what they can do offensively. Still, the biggest advantage we have is that offensively we will challenge them where they are weak and we have the speed to counter their speed. Those corner routes that Ramsey is throwing so well is an exploit against the typical Bucs defense. It took Spurrier a little while to find the weakness in what the Eagles were doing, but with the Bucs, you pretty much know it when you get to the stadium. They may not run 90 percent of that defense, but it is still their foundation. And that is something we can do some damage to. Ramsey has had two weeks where he's played teams with a myriad of looks and defenses. He's struggled with his decision making and his accuracy because of it. He's likely to feel a bit more comfortable this week. And, hell, I am still so at ease about this game that I'm calling it my first guranteed victory during the Spurrier era. My "feelings" may prove inadequate with Spurrier, but, we'll see how it goes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Very good analysis Art. As always, you break it down like you're watching film. All I can really say is that I hope you are right. But, like you, I do have a feeling that we will be in this game. I don't see us putting up the points that Indy did (or giving up that many) but I do see this being another nail-biter. Hopefully in the end we will have exploited some holes and gotten some points and we can win this thing. There's no Deion to return a punt and save our butts this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codeorama Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 I'd say that's gutsy considering that most here are calling this a Bucs blow out. Nice analysis, I hope you are dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Jumbo Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by Art And, hell, I am still so at ease about this game that I'm calling it my first guranteed victory during the Spurrier era. My "feelings" may prove inadequate with Spurrier, but, we'll see how it goes . No game is ever a guaranteed victory. We do have a good chance of winning this one, but I still think we will lose a close game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonnyJ Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Going out on a limb, Art...I like it! I agree with you. I would only add that the Redskin O has to accept that the Tampa D WILL get to Ramsey at times, that they WILL force a turnover or two. The O just can't let that snowball and let their D get into a frenzy. They need to patiently attack that defense, whatever that means. I don't see their O doing much damage, though I could see them having some success with short passes into the flats, which, IMO, the Redskins D has problems with. And, you can probably say this about every game, but they can't let Johnson get comfortable. He is accurate, and their passing game doesn't lend itself to getting sacked much, but some early hits may get him antsy. I'm not as confident as you are, but I don't think it is the mismatch that others seem to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 I am just glad Art is not predicting a blow out this time, the last time he did it wasn't good :doh: :paranoid: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 which game was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OaktonSkins/BushFan Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Art - The problem with this Redskins team thus far is that, in making predictions and matchup analysis, you have to take into account the propensity to make too many mental mistakes. These mental mistakes almost always lead to numerous false starts, offsides, personal fouls, etc. While I agree that we match up very well to the Bucs on both sides of the field, I'm sobered somewhat by the unfortunate fact that the Redskins are still playing undisciplined football. Let's hope they can put that behind them this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Art, I hope you're right in your analysis. I agree with your conceptual analysis of how our offense might match up with their defense, in simply looking at *how* the Bucs play defense. But I think the mistake you are making is not factoring the magnitude of talent that the Bucs bring on defense. I think the Buc front four is so talented that it will be disruptive frequently enough on its own. I also think the speed on defense will cause all sorts of difficulties for everyone on our offense except perhaps Coles. If we go long ball against the Bucs, Coles has the speed to break a few long gains. But it may be a case of some fitful big plays set against a high number of frustrating plays, as other receivers struggle, the OL struggles, and our runners struggle. I'd rather have Stephen Davis in the backfield and alternate between pounding him right at them and going to play-action passes deep. I just don't think we have the right rushers on the roster to pull that off right now. And with Coles our main threat, the Bucs can concentrate on taking him out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirk Diggler Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 I agree with much of what you said Art but I have to disagree about the Tampa blitzes. While they don't blitz very often, they are very good at it. They usually bring someone off the corner or a safety and they almost always come clean. Now, I haven't seen every Tampa game the past few years but the ones I have seen back up my point. Just a few years ago, Ronde Barber had 5.5 sacks in a season. That's a number that most DTs would be thrilled with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_da_way Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by Art The Bucs aren't a team that likes to do a ton of blitzing. You are in for a suprise. Originally posted by Art The Bucs probably won't generate a tremendous pass rush with just their four down linemen against us. If they stay back in coverages, and play their Cover-2, Spurrier will get to the right play and start to pick them apart. The Bucs don't have a great running game. Losing Alstott may help their running game though as Pittman is a nice, fast, straight-ahead runner that can give us trouble. We have the sort of matchups on the outside that can allow us to press their short passing game and limit some of what they can do offensively. You discredit the Bucs front four so quickly. Also keep in mind the Bucs play cover 2 only 33% of the time. The Bucs do not have a great running game but that is no problem becuase the Redskins D-line is just average. Originally posted by Art And, hell, I am still so at ease about this game that I'm calling it my first guranteed victory during the Spurrier era. My "feelings" may prove inadequate with Spurrier, but, we'll see how it goes . I guarantee that the game will be a good game but there is no way the Redskins wins this game. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by All_da_way I guarantee that the game will be a good game but there is no way the Redskins wins this game. JMO. Please tell me how Tampa will score?? No 1 or 2 or even 3rd WR, no FB, nothing. Nobody gives our D any credit, and we have a very good D. I can see as getting 2 tds on Tampa and that is all we will need. Skins 14 Bucs 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 I guarantee that the game will be a good game but there is no way the Redskins wins this game. JMO. all_da_way, i respect your opinion just as i'd want you to respect mine. however, how can someone say that they "guarantee" a game will be good (by good i'm assuming you mean close and competitive) and then say that there is "no way" one of the teams can win??? if there is a close game, anything can happen and any player on any team can decide a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_da_way Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by jbooma Please tell me how Tampa will score?? No 1 or 2 or even 3rd WR, no FB, nothing. Nobody gives our D any credit, and we have a very good D. I can see as getting 2 tds on Tampa and that is all we will need. Skins 14 Bucs 10 You do realize the Bucs offense has been putting up points this year. Brad Johnson is no slouch. Keyshawn, McCardell, and Williams do just fine as the 1,2,3 WR's to move the chains. We have two solid blocking full backs in Jameel Cook and Darien Barnes. The Redskins do have a good D but if the D-line is not able to get pressure on Johnson he will pick apart the Redskins D (Just like Peyton Manning did....*ugh*:doh: ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dchogs Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 uh oh. the last time i remember art guaranteeing a victory was last year's game vs. the eagirls. week 2. the u-g-l-y one. art, i'm praying you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manly Dexter Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by All_da_way I guarantee that the game will be a good game but there is no way the Redskins wins this game. JMO. WARNING, WARNING, WARNING! Undercover Cowboys fan discovered trolling around the premises.:dallasuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_da_way Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by speedwagon20 if there is a close game, anything can happen and any player on any team can decide a game. I:cheers: I agree but I have to be optimistic that the game is wayyyyyyyyyy out of reach unlike last week...:doh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by All_da_way Keyshawn, McCardell, and Williams do just fine as the 1,2,3 WR's to move the chains. We have two solid blocking full backs in Jameel Cook and Darien Barnes. Memo to stupid Keyshawn and Williams are OUT :fart: :doh: Even if they were playing do you honestly believe they can catch a pass on Champ or Smoot????!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_da_way Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by jbooma Memo to stupid Keyshawn and Williams are OUT :fart: :doh: Even if they were playing do you honestly believe they can catch a pass on Champ or Smoot????!!!! They are out??? Wow. Any WR can catch a pass if a D-line can not get pressure on a QB. A corner can not cover a WR forever. A corner can do so much without some help from the D-line (You would think everybody would have seen that since they watched what happened on Monday Night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonnyJ Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by All_da_way I guarantee that the game will be a good game but there is no way the Redskins wins this game. JMO. Could you explain why not? Tampa certainly has to be the favorite in the game, but you don't explain how the Redskins have no chance of winning. You talk about how the Bucs will be blitzing somewhat frequently, but not what could happen if they don't get to Ramsey. We saw just a few days ago that the Bucs can give up a lot of yards very quickly, even when they know the other team will be passing. And, the Colts were missing their #1 RB. Where was the dominant front four on Monday night? Why couldn't that happen again? What about the health of the Bucs? What about the Special Teams breakdowns they have had? Your boys are the defending champions and certainly to be reckoned with, but how are they infallible, when they have already been twice this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbooma Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by All_da_way They are out??? Wow. Any WR can catch a pass if a D-line can not get pressure on a QB. A corner can not cover a WR forever. A corner can do so much without some help from the D-line (You would think everybody would have seen that since they watched what happened on Monday Night). True, but we did get pressure on McNugget last week and last I checked he was a little more mobile then Johnson. Just go ahead and sleep on our D, please, hope the Bucs are just like you. The redskins are only about 2 plays from being 5-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_da_way Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by SonnyJ Could you explain why not? Tampa certainly has to be the favorite in the game, but you don't explain how the Redskins have no chance of winning. You talk about how the Bucs will be blitzing somewhat frequently, but not what could happen if they don't get to Ramsey. We saw just a few days ago that the Bucs can give up a lot of yards very quickly, even when they know the other team will be passing. And, they were missing the Colts were missing their #1 RB. Where was the dominant front four on Monday night? Why couldn't that happen again? What about the health of the Bucs? What about the Special Teams breakdowns they have had? Your boys are the defending champions and certainly to be reckoned with, but how are they infallible, when they have already been twice this year? Sure I can explain. It is simple: Art makes a guarantee, then I make my guarantee. 1+1 =2. The Bucs defense played well for 56 minutes. But as well you all know that is not enough. I know that the Bucs defense is still good and hopefully they are off that high horse of claiming to be the number one defense of all time and focus on finishing games. Healthwise the Bucs are beat up but so are many teams. No excuse. Special teams breakdown has to do more with the coach then the players. Gruden will have to step in on this (As he did) by cutting three special teams players to send the message. I am just going to watch the game but I have to optimistic after that four minute choke fest on Monday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_da_way Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by jbooma True, but we did get pressure on McNugget last week and last I checked he was a little more mobile then Johnson. Just go ahead and sleep on our D, please, hope the Bucs are just like you. The redskins are only about 2 plays from being 5-0 1. McNabb is not as accurate as Johnson. 2. Brad Johnson has been sacked only once this year. 3. Brad Johnson is good at getting a pass completed in the face of a blitz. 4. Brad does take a pounding back there but he is really tough. Brad has gained a lot of respect from the players. He was our MVP for our team last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurman Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 McNabb takes sacks because he thinks he can run out of a problem. Brad Johnson will throw it away. Getting 'pressure' isn't enough, we have to score on their defense and make Johnson take chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Skins Fan Posted October 9, 2003 Share Posted October 9, 2003 Originally posted by jbooma Memo to stupid Keyshawn and Williams are OUT :fart: :doh: Even if they were playing do you honestly believe they can catch a pass on Champ or Smoot????!!!! According to the latest injury report, Keyshawn and Williams are questionable. Keyshawn's injury is a thigh bruise -- hard to imagine he won't play. Jurevicius, however, is listed as out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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