The Almighty Quarterback Bandwagon Runs Out of Control

[Oldfan]

Yeah, I'm sure he did that on purpose to ensure they would pick his replacement in the draft.

It worked out for Peyton and the team, didn't it? Good planning. The Colts sucked for Luck as some posters here put it.

[Stophovr6]

<Staff edit trolling violation--due to previous bans, this one's permanent...next?>

[Oldfan]

In other words' date=' you are just completely making up numbers. Gotcha.[/quote']I didn't make up those stats. Check them if you like.

---------- Post added November-27th-2012 at 12:11 PM ----------

He had four surgeries. To his neck.

I'm not sure he had a lot of options there.

Are you sure he didn't? The timing worked out perfectly for the team and for Peyton.

[darrelgreenie]

Did anyone watch the Steelers the last two weeks? They aren't competitive without Roethlisberger.

Yep' date=' watched the better part of both games and I thought they were competitive. They lost to the Ravens by 3 in a game where it became obvious that Leftwhich couldn't throw the ball due to injury in the second half. Against Cleveland they were within a touchdown in a game where they lost [u']5[/u] fumbles.

[wrecker]

It worked out for Peyton and the team, didn't it? Good planning. The Colts sucked for Luck as some posters here put it.

After 14 years with the colts, I'm sure his first choice scenario was starting over with another team in the twilight of his career.

[Oldfan]

I think you should factor in reading the defense, audibles and adjustments made on every offensive down. Not to mention handoffs. The ball touches the QB's hands virtually every offensive play.

I counted the passing plays, they include all the talents need to pass the football.

I didn't count the handoffs because the argument that he "touches the ball on every play" is weak. That's what someone says when they are trying to add value that doesn't exist. I gave him credit for being worth as much as his 10 teammates on offense put together. That's probably generous.

---------- Post added November-27th-2012 at 12:18 PM ----------

After 14 years with the colts, I'm sure his first choice scenario was starting over with another team in the twilight of his career.

It was either that or start over with new coaches and new teammates. As it was, he could take the scheme to Denver who has far more talent especially on defense and special teams than the Colts team he left.

Peyton's either very lucky or he planned very well.

[Dan T.]

RGIII is already the most important player in Redskins' history.

Excluding Sammy Baugh (who played a sport that I am not convinced is actually football)...he is already the greatest QB in Redskins history.

Better than Sonny. Better than Joe T. Better than Rypien.

Not yet. The stars are aligning, and the supernova is so bright you need welder's googles, but it's still too early.

[wrecker]

RGIII is already the most important player in Redskins' history.

Excluding Sammy Baugh (who played a sport that I am not convinced is actually football)...he is already the greatest QB in Redskins history.

Better than Sonny. Better than Joe T. Better than Rypien.

[Oldfan]

Yep, watched the better part of both games and I thought they were competitive. They lost to the Ravens by 3 in a game where it became obvious that Leftwhich couldn't throw the ball due to injury in the second half. Against Cleveland they were within a touchdown in a game where they lost 5 fumbles.

Were the Steelers not like 5-2 back when Ben was suspended a couple of years back?

Besides, nobody's denying that a good starting QB is the most important position player. I don't know why repetition of that point doesn't eventually sink in.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

I'd say that statement would be stronger if you had Montgomery instead of Lich. I'm not sure why our own fans can't just admit a guy is good. People keep judging Montgomery playing out of position, he's a CENTER, and a pretty good one. He is, however, not much of a guard.

I personally don't think he's much more than a quality back-up center in an ideal World. His run blocking has been stellar this year. His pass pro still leaves a lot to be desired. We could do with a serious upgrade on the line from the center right across the right side IMHO.

Hopefully, one or two of the past draftees turn out to be a solution over time.

Hail.

[darrelgreenie]

Were the Steelers not like 5-2 back when Ben was suspended a couple of years back?

Besides, nobody's denying that a good starting QB is the most important position player. I don't know why repetition of that point doesn't eventually sink in.

IIRC the Steeler won more then they lost when Ben was out some time ago.

Remember when the Charger were top 5 in scoring and in defense yet failed to make the playoffs? Their special teams were league worst that year.

[ddub52]

I counted the passing plays, they include all the talents need to pass the football.

I didn't count the handoffs because the argument that he "touches the ball on every play" is weak. That's what someone says when they are trying to add value that doesn't exist. I gave him credit for being worth as much as his 10 teammates on offense put together. That's probably generous.

---------- Post added November-27th-2012 at 12:18 PM ----------

It was either that or start over with new coaches and new teammates. As it was, he could take the scheme to Denver who has far more talent especially on defense and special teams than the Colts team he left.

Peyton's either very lucky or he planned very well.

Why is that argument weak? If he audibles out of the pass and into a more effective run play, does that not give him extra value?

[Oldfan]

I personally don't think he's much more than a quality back-up center in an ideal World. His run blocking has been stellar this year. His pass pro still leaves a lot to be desired. We could do with a serious upgrade on the line from the center right across the right side IMHO.

Hopefully, one or two of the past draftees turn out to be a solution over time.

Hail.

The larger O-line question is: What will Mike do if defenses become adept at keeping Robert in the pocket as they try to do with Romo sits to pee? I have no doubt that RG3 can pass from the pocket, but that smaller O-line isn't very good at protecting him.

[darrelgreenie]

http://www.thehogs.net/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/RGIII-superman-1280x800-500x312.jpg

^^I love it.

[Oldfan]

Why is that argument weak? If he audibles out of the pass and into a more effective run play, does that not give him extra value?

I'm having trouble getting you guys to separate the average position value from the QB's talent. As I explained in the OP, they are two different factors.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Yep, watched the better part of both games and I thought they were competitive. They lost to the Ravens by 3 in a game where it became obvious that Leftwhich couldn't throw the ball due to injury in the second half. Against Cleveland they were within a touchdown in a game where they lost 5 fumbles.

Okay. They are not competitive on offense without him.

[ddub52]

I'm having trouble getting you guys to separate the position value from the QB's talent. As I explained in the OP, they are two different factors.

I get the point that you are attempting to make, but I think that what the QB reads and adjusts to makes an impact on every play. Every QB makes them on every single offensive play. That should add some value imo.

[darrelgreenie]

Okay. They are not competitive on offense without him.

I'm not sure what you mean by competitive on offense?

Is it possible for a team to be non-competitive on offense and still be a competitive team?

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I'm not sure what you mean by competitive on offense?

Is it possible for a team to be non-competitive on offense and still be a competitive team?

Jesus Christ.

They are freaking dreadful on offense without him.

There.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

The QB is not only heavily responsible for the success of the passing game, but the ability to scramble and make plays off designed runs, and create big plays downfield, significantly impacts the effectiveness of the zone blocking scheme.

Just using the players on the field (ignoring coaching and training because those are a bit harder to quantify), the QB would account for 33-40% of the passing (the average QB would account for 20-25%) and 20-25% of the running game (the average QB would account for 5-10% of the running)

So factoring all that in, I'd say the QB in Shanahan's scheme is closer to 10-20% of the total team performance, at the least. And because of how relatively close the NFL is in terms of performance, it makes having an elite QB with top-tier physical attributes both far more important to the Shanahan scheme, magnifying the effects of having one (as HC/OC, 3 Super Bowls in a 5 year stretch from 1994-1998 with Steve Young and John Elway as well as two Super Bowl appearances in the 80s as OC) and of not having one (1 playoff win in a 12 year stretch with Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, Jay Cutler (who was still in development when Mike was fired), Donovan McNabb and Rex Grossman).

Contrast this with Joe Gibbs's style of team structure, in which decent pocket passing QBs can win Super Bowls backed by a dominant offensive line, 3 Pro Bowl caliber receivers, and a strong defense filled with depth and talent.

I don't really think that style of play is feasible in the modern era - the salary cap and the draft are major leveling factors. It's financially impossible to sustain a team like those Redskins teams had - unless you signed the Hogs to 7 year deals at the start of their careers, eventually, someone would offer all of them large free agent contracts and you'd have to pick and choose who to keep and who to replace, same with the receivers. And without the more lax IR rules and the smaller roster sizes that allowed Gibbs to stash and develop developmental players almost endlessly, a modern team can't have a deep pipeline of talent to step in once the starters are signed away (it's funny how the Redskins have been screwed by the rules long before Mara came along)

[Oldfan]

I get the point that you are attempting to make, but I think that what the QB reads and adjusts to makes an impact on every play. Every QB makes them. That should add some value imo.

On the vast majority of running plays, the QB doesn't do very much. I'm not going to add a significant percentage simply because it can be claimed that "he touches the ball on every play." I could give the center just as much credit if I allow that argument.

[TheDane]

Chicken, meet Egg.

What if a quarterback DOESN'T make a play? What is his worth, then? What if he extends a drive at the right time to give his D a breather? What if he raises the level of his teammates by being a coach on the field? What if he raises the level of his teammates by being a leader off the field?

Trying to quantify a QB's importance is a fool's errand. Unfortunately, this is a rare case where "gut feel" outweighs statistics.

[Oldfan]

...So factoring all that in, I'd say the QB in Shanahan's scheme is closer to 10-20% of the total team performance..

Remember, the 9.3% is an estimated average. If we were to do this team-by-team, several scheme factors would have to be considered including the pass-to-run ratio and what the QB is asked to do on his own. However, your top end of 20% seems high just on a seat-of the pants judgment.

Bear in mind, you are working with 100% representing the whole, so you can't make the QB worth more unless you can argue that other positions on the team are worth less. In RG3's case, the argument that the O-line position has less value than the average NFL line would hold up, but I doubt that you could make 20% hold up.

I agree with your other points.

[darrelgreenie]

Jesus Christ.

Why?

They are freaking dreadful on offense without him.

There.

The Steelers outgained the Ravens by 100 yards' date=' the Ravens lone touchdown came on special teams by Jacoby Jones.

In a 20-14 loss do you think a team improves their chances to win if they don't fumble the ball away [u']5 times[/u]?

I ask again: Is it possible for a team to be non-competitive on offense and still be a competitive team?

[Oldfan]

Chicken, meet Egg.

What if a quarterback DOESN'T make a play? What is his worth, then? What if he extends a drive at the right time to give his D a breather? What if he raises the level of his teammates by being a coach on the field? What if he raises the level of his teammates by being a leader off the field?

Trying to quantify a QB's importance is a fool's errand. Unfortunately, this is a rare case where "gut feel" outweighs statistics.

If the QB doesn't make a play. His grade goes down, but his position value, which is determined by the coach who designs the scheme and the play caller, is unaffected as I said in the OP.

The reader needs to bear in mind that the average quarterback position value does not change whether the quarterback is good, bad or mediocre. However, the scheme and play calling can change the QB position value. For example, the average scheme passes on 54.5% of their offensive plays. If the scheme called for more passing, the value of the QB position would go up. If the QB is asked to use his legs outside the pocket and throw on the move, the position value goes up.