Tarhog Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Today marks the first day of Fall, but whether or not this new-look 2012 Washington Redskins team can rise or not remains to be seen. I’ve heard quite a bit of talk this week about the Redskins being a ‘great September team’ that fades as surely as the green from the Fall leaves come October/November. I decided to do a little number crunching to see for myself. From 2007-2011, the Redskins have racked up their highest winning percentage, prevailing in 56% of their games, during the month of September. That’s hardly ‘great’, and certainly not playoff caliber dominance, but September has been the Redskins best month for 5 years now. But the rest of the Fall football season has been just plain awful for the Burgundy and Gold. During the month of October, the Redskins winning percentage drops to just 48% during this period. And November? Well – you know without my telling you that November has been the most dreary, dreadful, and unkind month of all, with the Skins managing to win just 26% of their games. By December, the Redskins are typically just playing for pride, which might explain their slightly improved (but still atrocious) December winning percentage of 38%. So far, in Robert Griffin III’s inaugural campaign, the 2012 season has been decidedly schizophrenic. Skins fans watching the Redskins shock the New Orleans Saints in Week 1 had visions of sugar plums and post-Christmas play dancing in their heads. Week 2’s embarrassing exposure by the formerly hapless Rams brought them back to earth with a thud. Who is this team, and what are the chances the 2012 rendition of the Redskins can overcome its Fall woes and be playing meaningful football games come December? This team’s ‘progress’ (or lack of it) doesn’t occur in a vacuum. How an improved (if perhaps still fatally flawed) Redskins squad performs this Fall is impacted greatly by the guys showing up on the other side of the line of scrimmage each week. There’s good news on that front. Assuming the Redskins dispatch the Bengals in our home opener on Sunday, the Redskins head into Tampa Bay with the chance to move to 3-1 in September, their best start since 2008. Looking at the rest of the ‘pre-bye’ schedule, I’d expect the Redskins to take care of an over-rated Carolina team and (if they can keep Adrian Peterson from having a career day) eke out a win against the Vikings. The Redskins have hardly been a juggernaut at home in recent years, but I expect them to be much tougher at Fed Ex Field this season with the fan excitement the arrival of RG3 has stirred. I’m assuming likely losses to the Falcons, Steelers, and Giants in October, although it’s possible Griffin could change that with another spectacular performance like the one we saw in the opener. If things transpire as I’m predicting here, the Redskins enter normally nauseating November with, at worst, a 5-4 record and a bye week in which to regroup and recharge. In an odd scheduling year, 5 of the Redskins 6 NFC East matchups this year occur after the mid-season break. Assuming the Redskins are able to take care of at least 1 of their non-divisional opponents (Baltimore or Cleveland), the Skins can get to 9 wins with a .500 NFC East record. I know. I hear Jim Mora’s voice too. Playoffs? Playoffs you say? Despite the erratic play (so far) of this team, despite some already significant losses to injury, despite a worse-than-expected defense, a shaky secondary, and a journeyman offensive line, I think the Redskins have the chance to sneak into the playoffs this year. Yes – I said ‘this year’. How can I believe it’s possible? Didn’t I watch the epic ass-kicking the Redskins absorbed against a-really-not-very-good St. Louis Rams team? Am I sniffing glue? Those are good questions. My responses are pretty basic: 1) Our schedule is not that daunting. If we can get it together and beat the teams we should beat, 9 wins is there for the taking. 2) RG3 is the real deal. This offense, poor protection or not, is going to put up big numbers this year if Griffin can stay on the field. 3) Our defense is better than it looked against the Rams. Not great, but certainly better. 4) The NFC East, contrary to popular opinion, has no dominant teams. The Eagles? One word – Vick. The Giants? Still the best team in the division but will experience the same post-Super Bowl letdown year we almost always see occur. Dallas? Let’s not even go there. All 3 teams are flawed and beatable. 5) Youth. Although it’s going to take time to gel and find out what we’ve got in a number of spots, the Redskins are younger than they’ve been in years. Youth equates to two things: speed and coachability. We’ll see more Jekyll and less Hyde as the season progresses and this younger Redskins roster learns how, not just to win, but to avoid losing. So yeah, I’m going out on a limb pre-Bengals game. I’m going to use the ‘P word’. I think the playoffs are possible for this team in 2012. But it’ll take a better Fall performance than the Redskins have had in 5 seasons to get there. To read more BGO.C.D. blog entries, visit www.bgobsession.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinFaninOKC Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 We were 3-1 last year before the bottom dropped. Good post still. You mentioned the O-line, that is why I was anti Cousins in the 4th. That is the pick that should've been an O-lineman. I get that we need a decent backup but perhaps we could've drafted that next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarhog Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 No doubt 3-1 (assuming we get there) means nothing - unless we can have a strong October-November, something we haven't been able to do in recent years. I think they had plans to address some of our O-line issues in free agency, but the BS Mara/Goodell penalties shot that plan all to hell. I actually like the Cousins move a lot more than most, because I think he was a serious bargain where we got him. We had/have more pressing issues than back-up QB, I won't argue that - but if/when Griffin goes down, we are going to be very happy to have Kirk on the roster. My guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinFaninOKC Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Those cap penalties screwed things up for sure. With Shanahan as coach we've won the last 3 season openers and with RG III we look like a team than can compete far better in October and November. Hopefully Garcon's injury won't linger because he is the best WR we got. He is the only receiver on the roster that the other team has to put their best corner on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djbubba4life Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I think one of our biggest problems of the last 5 years has been the inability to finish off opponents when they are down. No matter what, we usually end up letting the game get close and leaving the possibility of a mental error or a penalty deciding the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 "Assuming the Redskins dispatch the Bengals in our home opener on Sunday, the Redskins head into Tampa Bay with the chance to move to 3-1 in September, their best start since 2008" I just don't get the reasons for this assumption. The Bengals shouldn't be taken lightly. They defeated the Browns. They also have a good QB/RB/WR in Dalton/Green (and Hawkins)/Green-Ellis. Plus we never perform well against teams that the fan base expect us to beat. We're short a DL and a LB and we don't know how the replacements will perform. We don't know if we'll be playing man, or zone or blitzing, don't know if our guys will hold their blocks on our punts, etc. I think that's just a bad assumption.....not to mention just the other freak plays that happen in a football game. We could easily lose this game. Regarding the overall message though, We tend to be a team that has had very little depth in the past so when things like injuries to players like Sean Taylor, Clinton Portis, our OL, Santana Moss and other WRs, etc. have come, we've had very few guys who could step in and perform at even an adequate level. People were excited about this preseason - saying we had depth everywhere except the secondary. Well we'll see how true that is come Sunday and in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarhog Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 That's a fair point TS - but by definition an 'assumption' includes the possibility that the old adage that it 'makes an ass out of you and me' rears it's ugly head For the record, as I hinted at I think Griffin is going to play very well at home and that the RG3-inspired crowd is going to turn Fed Ex into a pretty hostile environment this season. Griffin will want to make a statement in his home opener, especially after taking some criticism this week. I also expect Haslett to have a better game plan this week, and that our D will look better than it did against the Rams, subs or not. My bet is that we win convincingly tomorrow. As a Redskins fan, I'm always prepared to be horribly, horribly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thirtyfive2seven Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Those are good questions. My responses are pretty basic: 1) Our schedule is not that daunting. If we can get it together and beat the teams we should beat, 9 wins is there for the taking. 2) RG3 is the real deal. This offense, poor protection or not, is going to put up big numbers this year if Griffin can stay on the field. 3) Our defense is better than it looked against the Rams. Not great, but certainly better. 4) The NFC East, contrary to popular opinion, has no dominant teams. The Eagles? One word – Vick. The Giants? Still the best team in the division but will experience the same post-Super Bowl letdown year we almost always see occur. Dallas? Let’s not even go there. All 3 teams are flawed and beatable. 5) Youth. Although it’s going to take time to gel and find out what we’ve got in a number of spots, the Redskins are younger than they’ve been in years. Youth equates to two things: speed and coachability. We’ll see more Jekyll and less Hyde as the season progresses and this younger Redskins roster learns how, not just to win, but to avoid losing. BGO.C.D. blog entries, visit www.bgobsession.com I agree with you but I wish that you would have touched on special teams play. I'm eager to hear your thoughts on that subject and wonder if you think it will affect the skins in winning or losing games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGSKINS Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Tarhog, You said people criticized RG3? Criticized him for what? He was a one man show against the Rams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarhog Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 That is a glaring omission - you're right - particularly considering that, with even decent punt protection, we'd be 2-0 right now. There's no question our ST's is bad enough it can cost us games. How could anyone argue otherwise as it already has. I just can't imagine that we'll continue to perform as badly as we have so far. We've had a season's worth of blocked punts already. I'd be shocked if it happened again this year given how much focus we have to be putting on it. The other thing I'll mention is that, having inexplicably kept Brandon Banks on this roster (my opinion), the team must believe he's returned to form after injury, and that he'll break some this season. So it's not all bad. If Banks could live up to his 'potential', ST could also win us some games. I'll also say, Cundiff (when we're not asking him to hit 62 yarders) has impressed me so far. ---------- Post added September-22nd-2012 at 03:42 PM ---------- I wasn't referencing his play CGSKINS. I was referencing him getting criticized quite a bit on sports talk radio this week for 'not being tough enough' and being a 'crybaby' about the hits he took during the Rams game. I think that criticism was ridiculous personally, but I'm sure he heard it and that he'll be especially fired up for the home opener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thirtyfive2seven Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 The other thing I'll mention is that, having inexplicably kept Brandon Banks on this roster (my opinion), the team must believe he's returned to form after injury, and that he'll break some this season. So it's not all bad. If Banks could live up to his 'potential', ST could also win us some games. I'll also say, Cundiff (when we're not asking him to hit 62 yarders) has impressed me so far. I'd love to see Banks incorporated more in the offense. I think that he has big play potential there as well as on teams. I agree on Cundiff. I would much rather have a rock steady kicker who consistently makes kicks inside 50 yards than hit or miss Gano with a stronger leg. Maybe Gano will catch on elsewhere and become yet another Skins kicker who was iffy here and a rock star elsewhere. I would be shocked to see a blocked kick again this season but really I kind of expect it. For whatever reason the Skins have just been terrible in their blocking assignments over the past several seasons. Thanks for the reply - looking forward to more blog posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I appreciate the enthusiasm, but until the Skins keep a team from scoring 30 points there is no way this team can contend with the current Defense. I can understand some growing pains, which are really more supposed to be on offense with all the new players, but it appears the Skins in 2012 are going to be relying on their offense to win games. Quite the departure from the last decade, and exciting to see for sure! but i think in order to win the East, it's going to need a much better showing from the D. It's definitely possible, but I'll wait to agree with you until we show a little less "break" on defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarhog Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 We've already shown we can win games (okay - 'a game' ) when our defense gives up more than 30 I agree that, if what we saw last weekend is representative of the best our defense can do, we're in for a long year. I just don't believe that to be the case. But if our offense continues to produce the way it has, defense WILL be less important. Let's face it, as mentioned, if we could punt block, we'd be 2-0 despite not being able to stop anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFTW Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I think signing Cundiff and then asking him to kick a 62 yarder is a pretty good reference of the level of brain power we're dealing with. (He's made 1 50 yarder since 2006) Brandon Banks on the roster with just 5 active DL players is another. Imagine if we had 2 injuries on the DL, I think they did the same thing with the OL as well but ..... 7 active WR's? 2 blocks in 2 weeks is 3 years worth of blocks on most teams. Thats not counting all the ST problems from last year. In 2 years we've seen about a decade worth of ST breakdowns and we've seen 2 games this year. Yet Danny Smith is still coaching, we still will have 7 WR's active going into this game. Haslett is still going to get schooled 2-3 times a month no matter who we have playing. I agree that RG3 is going to be a blast to watch all year but I'm wondering how long until we see Grossman or Cousins in a game. The defense and special teams are going to force RG3 play like Elway in 1983 to try to score 30+ a lot. I'm still thinking 7-9 is optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I think if you look deeper into it, the 3rd down defense is a bigger concern than the points allowed. Our Offense can score 45 on any given sunday, so i actually agree that giving up 30 isnt a big deal. But we need to get important stops on 3rd down when the game is on the line, regardless of the score. It could be 45-44 for all I care, but we need to get off the dang field on 3rd down (and 4th for that matter) and stop teams when it counts. I miss Carlos Rodgers and Gregg Williams :paranoid: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarhog Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 I'll confess, last week's game depressed me so much I was determined to be positive going into this weekend. SkinsFTW - amen brother. I don't know if Shanahan was trying to take the pressure off Griff on the FG call or what? I almost hope so - because that's the only logic that at least I could understand, even if I think it's misplaced. And both Banks and Grossman would've been cut for line depth if I had my preference. And bite your tongue on the 'seeing' Grossman or Cousins thing. Jesus - why don't you just go ahead and summon Voldemort while you're at it? And illone - you only think you miss ol' Hands of Stone. He's like that ex-girlfriend - the memory of her far surpasses the reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illone Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 And illone - you only think you miss ol' Hands of Stone. He's like that ex-girlfriend - the memory of her far surpasses the reality. I disagree. You only think you don't miss him. He's a pro bowler and knows how to catch now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarhog Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Now who's sniffing glue? Next thing you know, you'll be suggesting Brandon Lloyd is an NFL starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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