What's Ahead for NFL Offenses?

[Oldfan]

Head coaches who can outsmart the opposing coach most of the time don't need the most talented roster to win games. This seems like an obvious statement, but the point is often overlooked when the game is discussed. We seem to spend much more time discussing quarterbacks and roster building strategies.

Head coaches who lead the league in strategic innovation, on offense and defense, give their teams a big edge. The Patriot's combination of Bill Belichik and Ernie Adams have been tough to beat. They were early adopters of the 34, and when the NFL began to catch up, they went to a hybrid. On offense, they saw the success the Colts were having with the Shotgun, so they gave Brady more Gun than Peyton.

So, the question I pose to you in this thread is: What's ahead for NFL offenses? Here are a couple of my thoughts. I'd be interested in hearing yours.

The double slot manned by TE bodies will negate the edge rusher's advantage

The toughest coaching job in football is to get a passing game to work. The greatest challenge to offensive coordinators when planning a passing game is that the rules of the game favor the edge rushers on defense. The rules allow the defender to jump around before the snap and lineup anywhere he wants to, while the OT can't even twitch without drawing a penalty.

A good rush from the outside is difficult for an OT to stop. A good outside rush by the defender then sets up the surprise bull rush or the inside spin move. So, the offensive coordinator's first task is to find a way to negate the defense's outside rush advantage.

A double slot formation with tight end size bodies in the slots will do that. Players in the slot have an ideal angle to chip on the edge rushers and still remain useful as eligible receivers. This strategy will negate the rush even for a team lacking outstanding OTs.

The net effect is similar to a two TE formation except that the TEs will have better blocking angles in the slots. This formation should work very well in the Red Zone; and if it works well in the compressed area of the RZ, then it will work even better as a ball control offense elsewhere on the field. Furthermore, a team with a good ball control offense will often beat more talented teams.

The Pistol puts the RB in a more useful position than the usual Shotgun

The Shotgun plus the double slot ought to give the QB enough time to make a couple of reads and then go to his outlet if he has to. The Pistol permits this while, at the same time, allowing better use of the RB.

With the double slot receivers helping to pass protect, there should be no need to keep the RB in to block. When he isn't running with the football, he can run a flare pattern to either side. Not knowing which side complicates the issue for the LBs. You will have two LBs losing a step until they make that read. Moreover, the LB who covers the RB can't blitz at the same time, so using the RB in the pattern is as good as a block in pass protection.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

I'll never understand why the Counter Trey went out of vogue. It had the perfect combination of power and misdirection that could still play a big part in today's game. An inventive play caller could also utilize the premiss of the line calls with two H-Backs in there to aid in the intermediate passing game.

Hail.

[Oldfan]

I'll never understand why the Counter Trey went out of vogue. It had the perfect combination of power and misdirection that could still play a big part in today's game. An inventive play caller could also utilize the premiss of the line calls with two H-Backs in there to aid in the intermediate passing game.

Hail.

I think all strategies have a shelf life. The Counter Trey had a long life, as did its forerunner, the Green Bay Sweep. Eventually, defenses catch up.

[polywog999]

I think all strategies have a shelf life. The Counter Trey had a long life, as did its forerunner, the Green Bay Sweep. Eventually, defenses catch up.

It became too easy to beat. If the run goes to the right, you send a LB around the edge to easily tackle the RB who is running behind two slow linemen.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

It became too easy to beat. If the run goes to the right, you send a LB around the edge to easily tackle the RB who is running behind two slow linemen.

That was part of the beauty of it though. First the misdirection, then the inside LB not being used to the blocking ferocity of a pulling guard and tackle in the first level. If you really got it rolling, that always seemed one of it's major benefits as games wore on. LB's not used to those type of blocks from linemen and bigger H-Backs wearing down.

I agree all strategies have a shelf life, but when good plays consistently work, they work. I'd still like to see it as a part of our playbook.

Hail.

[MartinC]

I'll never understand why the Counter Trey went out of vogue. It had the perfect combination of power and misdirection that could still play a big part in today's game. An inventive play caller could also utilize the premiss of the line calls with two H-Backs in there to aid in the intermediate passing game.

Hail.

On the Counter Trey outside line backers and DEs got faster and faster and are able to break up the run in the backfield with backside pursuit.

On the wider points Oldfan brings up my thoughts start with the talent available as I believe that good coaching is important but great talent is even more important. College offenses are more and more some kind of shotgun spread and option look. We are already seeing more and more of these concepts in NFL playbooks - a lot of what the Pats do is straight out of the spread and QBs like Brady and Peyton spend more time in shotgun than under centre.

The supply of QBs and receivers from College who have played in a traditional pro style offense is drying up. Look at this years QBs most of the top prospects came from spread offenses and spent almost all their time in the 'gun. NFL offenses are going to evolve to take advantage of the experience and talent of these athletes and start to look more and more like a College spread look.

In the spread the pass protection issue is dealt with by getting the ball out of the QBs hand very quickly and by spreading the defense out reducing the ability of a defense to commit edge rushers and blitzers. I think we may see TEs in the slot as Oldfan says but not so much to block more as larger inside receivers.

Its clear the NFL is a passing league and that trend will only continue as the rules on illegal contact and pass interference favour the passing game. The down valuing of running backs in the draft is a sign of this IMO.

I look then to see more spread formations, the use of the shotgun as a base formation more and more and an adaptation of running games from the traditional power game we have seen in past to set up play action to more of lead draw and outside zone based look.

[Chump Bailey]

IMO, it's an exercise in futility trying to block edge rushers with non-OT types for the most part. Very few are capable enough blockers to allow for the play to develop as designed. Teams are seeing the short passing attack often and will adapt accordingly and quickly I think. The concept is sound and will remain as such: getting the ball to elusive players in space with breakaway speed is a very good idea. I just think teams these days have such incredible DE's/OLB's that employing such tactics might mitigate the pass rush somewhat at times, but overall I think offenses are better off trying to spread defenses around and then using misdirection, draw-plays in such cases. Teams are also placing a premium not only on pass rushers, but nickel DB's.

[gutlead74]

Counter Trey was highly successful vs the old 2 gap read and react defenses. To ask a center to reach a 3 or 5 just ain't happening with modern penatrating defenses.

The genius of the stretch play is that in theory everyone has a body on them and penetration creates gaps, if run correctly the D can't be right. The rb with the right reads can create his own counter play.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

No question defense's have adapted, both in scheme and physique of their personnel; but I'd still have the Counter Trey in my locker. If you find the right defensive look, it could still be very effective in today's game.

It might be more limited today than when we used to hammer it, but it could still have it's place.

Hail.

[polywog999]

Spread formations have always intrigued me. If you have the right personnel....and the right play-calling, it's hard to counter.

[MartinC]

No question defense's have adapted, both in scheme and physique of their personnel; but I'd still have the Counter Trey in my locker. If you find the right defensive look, it could still be very effective in today's game.

It might be more limited today than when we used to hammer it, but it could still have it's place.

Hail.

Gibbs used it a bit in his second stint with some success, but it's not a bread and butter running play anymore IMO. It's a bit like with the passing game the trend is more about spreading and stretching the field rather than going heavy and banging it north and south.

[polywog999]

That was part of the beauty of it though. First the misdirection, then the inside LB not being used to the blocking ferocity of a pulling guard and tackle in the first level. If you really got it rolling, that always seemed one of it's major benefits as games wore on. LB's not used to those type of blocks from linemen and bigger H-Backs wearing down.

I agree all strategies have a shelf life, but when good plays consistently work, they work. I'd still like to see it as a part of our playbook.

Hail.

The success of the counter-trey was forwarded mostly by the increase of size in O-linemen in the NFL. It was impossible to stop in 1982. It was a decided advantage that took time for defenses to catch up to. By the late 80's it was wearing out it's welcome. It became increasingly important to pass-protect, instead of run block. The league has been that way for a long time - always evolving towards the passing game, which is more interesting to the fans. Smash-mouth football is dieing. It is giving way to a lighter, more balanced attack geared towards the air game.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Gibbs used it a bit in his second stint with some success, but it's not a bread and butter running play anymore IMO. It's a bit like with the passing game the trend is more about spreading and stretching the field rather than going heavy and banging it north and south.

I think that's an oft overlooked thing when it comes to what's currently in vogue and what's not; and what's perceived that you should and shouldn't do. That word in your last sentence, "trend." The NFL's a copycat league in the main. You find something that works, and have consistent success using it, however out-dated it may seem; and it will soon come back to prominence.

Hail.

[daveakl]

I think you are right on the TE usage, but not in the way you are thinking. The chip block from a slot player is tougher to pull off then having a RB in the backfield chip an edge rusher while going out into the flat. It also alters the routes they can run and makes it easier for a defender to contain them in zone coverage.

More teams are using TE's though to create a mismatch when they are pass catching TE's and not just a 6th linemen. You actually can combine this idea with the thought of placing the QB in the pistol formation with a RB in the backfield and 3 WR's to create huge match-up nightmares.

[Oldfan]

Martin, we agree almost completely on the points you made in #6. I will just add a few thoughts.

On the wider points Oldfan brings up my thoughts start with the talent available as I believe that good coaching is important but great talent is even more important.

That's certainly true. My estimate is that the coaching factor, all aspects of it, is 20% of the whole , with personnel at 80%. However, let's remember that, unlike college, the NFL spread in the NFL between the roster talent of the best and worst teams is slender. So, coaching strategy ranks at the top as a difference maker, in my opinion.

College offenses are more and more some kind of shotgun spread and option look. We are already seeing more and more of these concepts in NFL playbooks - a lot of what the Pats do is straight out of the spread and QBs like Brady and Peyton spend more time in shotgun than under centre.

Yes, this is indeed already happening. However, let's not forget the difference in the speed of the game, college v. pro. Because of the speed, offense and defense, the NFL game is virtually played on a smaller field. I doubt the spread will have the same impact on the NFL game as it's had at the college level.

The supply of QBs and receivers from College who have played in a traditional pro style offense is drying up. Look at this years QBs most of the top prospects came from spread offenses and spent almost all their time in the 'gun. NFL offenses are going to evolve to take advantage of the experience and talent of these athletes and start to look more and more like a College spread look.

Agreed. However, I don't expect the NFL to put much emphasis on the QB being an exceptional athlete. Brady, Peyton, and other highly regarded QBs prove that you don't need a gifted athlete at the position to run an effective passing game. I think scouts will be putting the emphasis on the arm and the head and less on the legs.

In the spread the pass protection issue is dealt with by getting the ball out of the QBs hand very quickly and by spreading the defense out reducing the ability of a defense to commit edge rushers and blitzers. I think we may see TEs in the slot as Oldfan says but not so much to block more as larger inside receivers.

As I said earlier, I don't expect the spread to be as effective in the NFL as it has been in college. I suspect that defenses will want to find ways to free both edge rushers to go full tilt on almost every play as Dwight Freeny and others have been doing for some time. If so, the five man line might make a comeback to handle the run with the three interior linemen

Its clear the NFL is a passing league and that trend will only continue as the rules on illegal contact and pass interference favour the passing game. The down valuing of running backs in the draft is a sign of this IMO.

I think Brian Westbrook would be a good model for the future RB. More of an elusive receiver of flares, swings, and screens and less of an inside runner.

[darrelgreenie]

What's ahead for NFL offenses? Here are a couple of my thoughts. I'd be interested in hearing yours.

The double slot manned by TE bodies will negate the edge rusher's advantage

A double slot formation with tight end size bodies in the slots will do that. Players in the slot have an ideal angle to chip on the edge rushers and still remain useful as eligible receivers. This strategy will negate the rush even for a team lacking outstanding OTs.

The net effect is similar to a two TE formation except that the TEs will have better blocking angles in the slots. This formation should work very well in the Red Zone; and if it works well in the compressed area of the RZ, then it will work even better as a ball control offense elsewhere on the field. Furthermore, a team with a good ball control offense will often beat more talented teams.

I think the traditional split for a slot receiver would be too far away from the OLB to get a good angle to pass block or chip effectively.

It would probably need to be more like a traditional between wing formation then a slot, imo.

I've seen some teams(Green Bay in particular when both Finley is healthy, Pats) use this formation or motion to a formation that is essentially the same as the above.

Actually we have the personnel to use this type of formation.

But, it also has its own limitations.

The Pistol puts the RB in a more useful position than the usual Shotgun

One of my favorites coaches/offensive minds, Chan Gailey, used the pistol offense with Tyler Thigpen and the Cheifs about 3 years ago.

What's more is he installed it on the fly mid-season after the top 2 QBs were injured.

What's ahead for NFL offenses? Here are a couple of my thoughts. I'd be interested in hearing yours.

We hear a lot of belly aching about how spread offenses and zone-read spread offenses don't prepare modern college QBs for the NFL.

But, more and more you spread and zone-read concepts being adopted into the NFL offenses.

I mentioned Chan Gailey earlier with the pistol then there's that prick Josh McDaniels who essentially ran the spread with the 16-0 Pats team a few years ago.

We've seen the Titans add some zone-read stoff for Vince.

And we've watched Tebow run some of the exact same redzone plays as Cam ran at Auburn, complete with the run fake shoulder lean. We've also watched Tebow basically execute a college zone read gameplan for the last couple games of the year.

Here's some video that ties it all together its Tebow in the RZ from a double wing formation zone-read, play action (rocker step-shoulder lean) TD pass

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EEy_yChLKI&feature=related

[Going Commando]

So, the question I pose to you in this thread is: What's ahead for NFL offenses? Here are a couple of my thoughts. I'd be interested in hearing yours.

I think, more generally, the league will trend back towards the run within a few years.

I think Jim Harbaugh could start the trend in SF this year.

I think the offenses that Harbaugh (Stanford), Mark Dantonio (Michigan State), Nick Saban (Alabama), and Brett Bielema (Wisconsin) ran at their respective schools this season will trickle up to the best teams with the best defenses in the NFL.

I think run heavy offenses with HB stables that can go inside or outside with ease and let a heady QB (who might not have ideal physical gifts) destroy you with misdirection and motion could be the wave of the near future.

3-4 defenses are about as common as 4-3 defenses and even lots of 4-3 teams are soft on the edges against the run. Teams are building as we speak in order to tee off on the pass. Thirteen defensive linemen and rush linebackers drafted in the first round this year--almost half the picks.

Teams blitz, aggression is the flavor of the moment, the best defenders are the most aggressive ones. Safeties have become some of your most dynamic defenders.

An offense like Wisconsin's, Michigan State's, or Stanford's is tailor made to exploit these qualities in NFL defenses. They control the ball, which as you say, allows less talented personnel to beat more talented personnel if they execute well. They keep defenses completely off balance. And really all it takes is a quality HB stable, good run blocking OL, receivers who can block, and a smart QB that can handle an extremely complex playbook and move a little bit and throw on the run. There are a lot of teams already equipped to run this kind of scheme.

The double slot manned by TE bodies will negate the edge rusher's advantage

A double slot formation with tight end size bodies in the slots will do that. Players in the slot have an ideal angle to chip on the edge rushers and still remain useful as eligible receivers. This strategy will negate the rush even for a team lacking outstanding OTs.

The net effect is similar to a two TE formation except that the TEs will have better blocking angles in the slots. This formation should work very well in the Red Zone; and if it works well in the compressed area of the RZ, then it will work even better as a ball control offense elsewhere on the field. Furthermore, a team with a good ball control offense will often beat more talented teams.

Tight ends who can block well and catch well are one of your most valuable players on your roster, especially if you don't have top tier offensive tackles that can play on an island and protect your QB.

I think you're right about tight ends becoming more important to offensive success in the future because they are weapons against both 4 and 3 man fronts. They are your most versatile offensive players. Big bodied tight ends with good blocking skills pick up your blitz on the edge against the 3-4 and they soften the edge in the run game against the big defensive ends of 4-3 fronts. If they can catch and run routes then they also become the primary weapons in your intermediate/short passing game because they get the best matchups.

Double TE sets either on the line or in the y can be your most difficult sets if you've got two TEs that can do it all because your formation has no strength and nothing that a defense can easily key on.

[darrelgreenie]

An offense like Wisconsin's, Michigan State's, or Stanford's is tailor made to exploit these qualities in NFL defenses. They control the ball, which as you say, allows less talented personnel to beat more talented personnel if they execute well. They keep defenses completely off balance. And really all it takes is a quality HB stable, good run blocking OL, receivers who can block, and a smart QB that can handle an extremely complex playbook and move a little bit and throw on the run. There are a lot of teams already equipped to run this kind of scheme.

I think the Chiefs, Raiders and the Jets(to an extent) and even Atlanta are examples of this style of offense, which I would consider a smash mouth/multiple offense (which used to be a traditional offense).

Personally, I would love to see more of this style offense.

[Oldfan]

IMO, it's an exercise in futility trying to block edge rushers with non-OT types for the most part...

I think you are right on the TE usage, but not in the way you are thinking. The chip block from a slot player is tougher to pull off then having a RB in the backfield chip an edge rusher while going out into the flat. It also alters the routes they can run and makes it easier for a defender to contain them in zone coverage...

If your player can get on the hip of his opponent and use leverage to drive him to the side, he can block a man twice his size. The OT has to stay within a yard of the LOS making it very hard to get on the edge rusher's hip on that outside rush. The "TE body" in the slot can position himself anywhere in the backfield to make this block easy. All he has to do is slow up the edge rusher's second step, allow the OT to take over, then he's a pass receiver.

[Going Commando]

That's certainly true. My estimate is that the coaching factor, all aspects of it, is 20% of the whole , with personnel at 80%. However, let's remember that, unlike college, the NFL spread in the NFL between the roster talent of the best and worst teams is slender. So, coaching strategy ranks at the top as a difference maker, in my opinion.

It's definitely the biggest difference maker at the college level. Coaching is probably at least 50% of it when you get into games where upper tier BCS schools play each other (or when scrappy non AQ schools play BCS ones).

I think it's interesting that CFB and some rare H.S. football is the experimentation ground where most football innovation happens now because it's slower and more forgiving than the NFL.

Yes, this is indeed already happening. However, let's not forget the difference in the speed of the game, college v. pro. Because of the speed, offense and defense, the NFL game is virtually played on a smaller field. I doubt the spread will have the same impact on the NFL game as it's had at the college level.

I agree. Too many good defensive backs and edge rushers in the league too. Defenses are going smaller and quicker now than they were 6 or 7 years ago. It'll soon be time for the running game to make a come back.

As I said earlier, I don't expect the spread to be as effective in the NFL as it has been in college. I suspect that defenses will want to find ways to free both edge rushers to go full tilt on almost every play as Dwight Freeny and others have been doing for some time. If so, the five man line might make a comeback to handle the run with the three interior linemen

Basically already see that in most 3-4 base sets since both OLBs usually play on the line and only your two ILBs in the stack.

I think Brian Westbrook would be a good model for the future RB. More of an elusive receiver of flares, swings, and screens and less of an inside runner.

Steven Jackson is your physical ideal since he can run inside and outside, is a bruiser, and can catch. LeGarrette Blount is a successful young back with this kind of skillset. Jahvid Best had a hard charging, physical inside style with elite outside speed. Ingram, Williams, and LeShoure were highly drafted guys this year with solid builds, powerful styles, but also the quickness to get to the edge. Peyton Hillis, for all his size and power, actually crushes outside runs and tosses and gets some of his best carries off of them because he can run DBs over. Darren McFadden had a breakout season last year running a lot of the same kinds of plays and he's a little bit bigger HB, just one with rare speed.

Big and fast is your ideal I guess, seems obvious when you write it down.

[MartinC]

Yes, this is indeed already happening. However, let's not forget the difference in the speed of the game, college v. pro. Because of the speed, offense and defense, the NFL game is virtually played on a smaller field. I doubt the spread will have the same impact on the NFL game as it's had at the college level.

I agree that there is not the spread of talent in the NFL you get in College and that the NFL is a much faster game. However I do think that Pats and others have already shown that you can have success in the Pro's with spread concepts.

However, I don't expect the NFL to put much emphasis on the QB being an exceptional athlete. Brady, Peyton, and other highly regarded QBs prove that you don't need a gifted athlete at the position to run an effective passing game. I think scouts will be putting the emphasis on the arm and the head and less on the legs.

Agreed. I think Brady and Peyton have shown that having a QB who can make quick and good decisions and get the ball out of his hand quickly, hitting what he throws at is what you need to run a spread concept in the NFL. Brees is another who fits this mold IMO. I dont see the NFL adopting the option running which you see in College from QBs which puts more emphasis on the QB as an athlete.

I think Brian Westbrook would be a good model for the future RB. More of an elusive receiver of flares, swings, and screens and less of an inside runner.

I think Roger Craig was the model modern NFL running back about 20 years before his time.

[polywog999]

If your player can get on the hip of his opponent and use leverage to drive him to the side, he can block a man twice his size. The OT has to stay within a yard of the LOS making it very hard to get on the edge rusher's hip on that outside rush. The "TE body" in the slot can position himself anywhere in the backfield to make this block easy. All he has to do is slow up the edge rusher's second step, allow the OT to take over, then he's a pass receiver.

TE's in the absence of wide-outs, are easy to cover. You can't be an offensive Juggernaut with TE's as your primary targets, not in this league. TE's are a complement to the passing game....not the main course.

[Annonymous Source]

I like to draw up football plays in my spare time, and the formation that you are talking about works well from a modified slot position of about a 4-5 yard split from the tackle but any farther than that and they either become a one dimensional blocker or a one dimensional route runner. The advantage of setting up like this is that it makes bootlegs much easier as you already have a backside blocker as well as a checkdown reciever on every play. I don't think this formation will ever become a "standard" formation because there simply arent enough talented big WR or quick TE's to have 2 on every roster. As for the next big leap forward, that is going to come from the defensive side first. They need to adapt to the fact that heavy hitting has started to be legislated out of the game. I feel that this will result in an overall increase in speed as well as a lot of safety/linebacker hybrid types. THis will then lead to a resurgence in the power running game.

---------- Post added May-7th-2011 at 11:17 AM ----------

TE's in the absence of wide-outs, are easy to cover. You can't be an offensive Juggernaut with TE's as your primary targets, not in this league. TE's are a complement to the passing game....not the main course.

This isnt necessarily true. Some of the toughest covers in the league are Tight Ends.

Dallas Clark

Antonio Gates

Vernon Davis

They have WR speed but a TE body. Also players that could play this position would be a Malcolm Kelly, or any big bodied WR who can deliver good blocks. The problem with the formation is that there are very few teams that have enough of that level of talent to execute it.

[polywog999]

I like to draw up football plays in my spare time, and the formation that you are talking about works well from a modified slot position of about a 4-5 yard split from the tackle but any farther than that and they either become a one dimensional blocker or a one dimensional route runner. The advantage of setting up like this is that it makes bootlegs much easier as you already have a backside blocker as well as a checkdown reciever on every play. I don't think this formation will ever become a "standard" formation because there simply arent enough talented big WR or quick TE's to have 2 on every roster. As for the next big leap forward, that is going to come from the defensive side first. They need to adapt to the fact that heavy hitting has started to be legislated out of the game. I feel that this will result in an overall increase in speed as well as a lot of safety/linebacker hybrid types. THis will then lead to a resurgence in the power running game.

---------- Post added May-7th-2011 at 11:17 AM ----------

This isnt necessarily true. Some of the toughest covers in the league are Tight Ends.

Dallas Clark

Antonio Gates

Vernon Davis

They have WR speed but a TE body. Also players that could play this position would be a Malcolm Kelly, or any big bodied WR who can deliver good blocks. The problem with the formation is that there are very few teams that have enough of that level of talent to execute it.

Doesn't matter about the speed, you're asking a player to chip a DE coming fill kilter, and then run a fly pattern? It is not likely that you will get two players who can consistently be productive in the execution of this.

[MartinC]

As for the next big leap forward, that is going to come from the defensive side first. They need to adapt to the fact that heavy hitting has started to be legislated out of the game. I feel that this will result in an overall increase in speed as well as a lot of safety/linebacker hybrid types. THis will then lead to a resurgence in the power running game.

I think the emphasis on not blowing up defenseless offensive players will force NFL coaches and players to focus on actually tackling rather than using the body as a weapon and hitting. The standard of tackling in the NFL is shocking.