Clinton Portis is our third-down back?

[McD5]

Besides the injury concern, I figure Ladell didn't measure up as a blocker in Mike's eyes-- which makes some sense even if we Betts fans don't agree. So, I don't know why they would reconsider the decisions to make him an offer.

I always hated the boring Gibbs 2 offense that killed us before the ball was even snapped. We never even had a chance to compete.

Now, it wasn't all his fault, Dan and Vinny deserve blame too. But the o-line sucked. So we immediately had to go into max-protect, keep Cooley in, and send out only two receivers.

Game over.

You simply can't run an offense like that, and eventually Joe realized this as he stated on the Jim Rome show, and threw in the towel early.

I was, and still am, hoping that Shanahan is a little more intelligent than that. His moves to bolster the o-line lead me to believe that he is.

With an average o-line, (even in spite of Rabach and Hicks), we will now be able to actually send more than 2 people out to catch passes to move the ball down the field. Enter Betts. He would flourish in a modern day offense like that.

[bedlamVR]

Even if the RB isn't targeted, the defense has to assign someone to cover him. That defender can't blitz at the same time, so having the RB out in the pattern is as good as a block.

Most teams will have a safety reading the RB. If the RB stays in, the safety blitzes. Even if he is blocked, he's crowding the pocket, thus making life more difficult for the QB.

That makes sense.

How ? How does that make sense . It sounds like it comes right out of the OBC big book of play calling . So if every pass catcher out on a route has to be covered by an opposing defender why not send everyone ? Then no one will be able to blitz ...

As for the number crunching the big problem is you are not comparing like with like . Faulk and Betts were never considered good enough to be full time backs . Faulk is listed as a FB so he is not even a 3rd down back he is a pass catching back but not a 3rd down specialist .

Betts was supposed to be the change of pace guy, though he was never even that, but was not consistent enough either as a runner or a pass blocker to be a 3rd down back in the traditional sense .

Westbrook was that guy initially but after the 3 headed monster in 2004 he became the primary back . Reid has always been a pass first HC and even with nothing to throw at, at WR he liked to run a 60:40 pass : run ratio which scews the stats .

Portis is comparable to most other RBs in terms of his catches... and I am thinking of AP and Frank Gore . If Portis is the 3rd down back then there is a good reason for that ..

[bedlamVR]

I always hated the boring Gibbs 2 offense that killed us before the ball was even snapped. We never even had a chance to compete.

Now, it wasn't all his fault, Dan and Vinny deserve blame too. But the o-line sucked. So we immediately had to go into max-protect, keep Cooley in, and send out only two receivers.

Game over.

You simply can't run an offense like that, and eventually Joe realized this as he stated on the Jim Rome show, and threw in the towel early.

I was, and still am, hoping that Shanahan is a little more intelligent than that. His moves to bolster the o-line lead me to believe that he is.

With an average o-line, (even in spite of Rabach and Hicks), we will now be able to actually send more than 2 people out to catch passes to move the ball down the field. Enter Betts. He would flourish in a modern day offense like that.

Sorry I know you really like Betts buts lets not fool ourselves here . Betts was given chance after chance to establish himself but either could not beat out the guy in front of him or couldn't be bothered . In 2002 he was SDs understudy but throughout 2002 it became increasingly clear Davis was not long for the franchise and he let Trung Candate come in and claim the starters spot . Eventually when Trung was exposed Betts still couldn't step it up and ended up spliting time with Kenny Watson and others .

Other than 2006 Betts never established himself as a real pass catching threat coming out of the back field . Other than 2006 he surpassed 20 catches twice in his career and even in 2006 he only hauled in 54 passes . He also never had more than 10 first down receptions in his career other than 2006 when he was the defacto every down back .

[McD5]

Sorry I know you really like Betts buts lets not fool ourselves here . Betts was given chance after chance to establish himself but either could not beat out the guy in front of him or couldn't be bothered .

Other than 2006 Betts never established himself as a real pass catching threat coming out of the back field .

I don't believe we've had much competiton for starting spots here in many years.

JC was named the starter before Zorn even saw him practice, the list goes on and on.

Most starters were penciled in before camp even began.

And as far as "not establishing himself as a passing threat" as posted above, we were more concerned with an impotent offensive plan that relied on a combination of max-protect, and only two receiving options. Something that worked 15 years ago, but not in this decade.

[bulldog]

this is the first time in YEARS that the running backs on this team have had to sweat for a roster spot.

and that is going to continue as long as Shanahan is the coach.

his history in Denver shows that he views the running back position as being one where he can find players each season.

[zoony]

okay I've thought about it. Our perfect third down back is Fred Davis. Block, catch... what more do you need?

Thank you and good night. Try the veal.

[mudhog]

Mike just said CP has a sprained ankle.....when did this happen?

[Potato Sack]

Mike just said CP has a sprained ankle.....when did this happen?

Do we know how bad it is? Damn.

[Sandman69]

Your post is a good example of the misuse of statistics. While searching for a way to counter your argument, I found a simple way to prove to reasonable minds that:

A) Betts is a much better receiver than Portis;

B}Pass receiving is the primary duty of a third-down back;

C) Brian Westbrook would be an ideal third-down back;

D) Portis would make a poor third-down back.

I start with the premise that play callers will target RBs who are good receivers more often than they will target RBs who are poor receivers. Using stats, it's easy to tell how often a RB was targeted by using his career rushing attempts and receptions in a ratio.

Veteran Kevin Faulk of the Patriots has been their third-down back for several years. His career number show 418 receptions and 839 rushing attempts. That's a one to two ratio.

Brian Westbrook was the Eagles every-down back. His career numbers show 426 receptions and 1,308 rushing attempts. That's a one to three ratio.

Ladell Betts has been mostly a part-time back. He shows 176 receptions and 776 rushing attempts. That's a one to 4.4 ratio.

Clinton Portis has career numbers of 242 receptions and 2,176 rushing attempts. That's a one to nine ratio.

Reviewing:

Faulk 1 to 2.0

Westbrook 1 to 3.0

Betts 1 to 4.4

Portis 1 to 9.0

Ladell Betts was targeted by playcallers twice as often as Portis when he was in the game. Westbrook's numbers, compared to Faulk's, show why people think he's an ideal candidate for a third-down back at this point in his career.

What does that have to do with CP being a good receiving back? That only shows that CP was a much better runner than the others and was used for his running skills more so than the others. Also, Westbrook's receptions were elevated since they didn't have very prolific receivers and he was basically used as a wide out.

My numbers actually show the players Reception production. Which CP had more receptions for first downs. Which in my book is more important than anything. Well minus scoring.

As you say, reasonable minds should be able to see that.

I will give you that Westbrook and especially Faulk are your more typical Pass receiving third down backs, but CP's versatility can actually be more useful.

Stop whining. Nobody's saying you're not entitled to your dumb opinion.

And your entitled to your dumb opinions.

Like this one...

We can expect our opponents to blitz another safety routinely since they will have less concern that Portis will hurt them as a receiver.

And if CP is in there, they will pay dearly. You know Defenses actually like to blitz on obvious passing plays right? ANd if you have a "typical" third down receiving back in there that can't block, those same safeties will eat that up. Especially, since a Backer can follow the third down back for a couple seconds and hopefully that Safety gets to the QB before the back takes advantage of the mismatch. Though, the D would probably be in a nickel package so there might not be a mismatch and there will be noone to pick up the blitz.

Unless, you have a good blocking back in there.

[Oldfan]

How ? How does that make sense . It sounds like it comes right out of the OBC big book of play calling . So if every pass catcher out on a route has to be covered by an opposing defender why not send everyone ? Then no one will be able to blitz ...

The post you quoted was originally a two paragraph reply. You need to read the post I replied to for full comprehension. Essentially, I'm saying there are two schools of thought. In one, the coaches usually keep the back in to max protect. In another, they usually send the back out. I was offering the logic of the latter strategy without offering my opinion.

As for the number crunching the big problem is you are not comparing like with like . Faulk and Betts were never considered good enough to be full time backs.

What difference does THAT make? The point of using an average or a ratio is to eliminate the inequalities based on the number of carries.

Faulk is listed as a FB so he is not even a 3rd down back he is a pass catching back but not a 3rd down specialist.

Rosters don't show "third down back" as a position, so the "FB" or "RB" designation means nothing.

If you do a search for "kevin faulk third down back" you will get hits like this one from NBC Sports: "Kevin Faulk reportedly shed weight prior to training camp in an effort to improve his quickness. "He does look a bit quicker," observed Ian Rapoport of the Boston Herald. Now 34, Faulk is expected to remain New England's primary third-down back this season. "

Westbrook was that guy initially but after the 3 headed monster in 2004 he became the primary back . Reid has always been a pass first HC and even with nothing to throw at, at WR he liked to run a 60:40 pass : run ratio which scews the stats .

You are confusing cause with effect. Coaches are supposed to adapt to their talent. His RB was Westbrook, who is an exceptional receiver and not as adept at running between the tackles. Westbrook is the REASON Andy liked to throw more than run.

BTW, the 60/40 ratio is what most WCO coaches aim for. If memory serves, Shanahan's Broncos were at 63% in 2008.

[Johns Bass]

Betts is a Saint ...for all of those that have forgotten, so signing him is not even an option.

He is still on their roster - was one for one on receptions tonite and was not even expected to play. He will probably make their next cut because they are already down to 76 players.

Next?

[Oldfan]

...That only shows that CP was a much better runner than the others and was used for his running skills more so than the others.

That's a nice spin, but you can't just leave out the interpretation you don't like. The stat shows that, by comparison to the others, playcallers liked Clinton far more as a runner than as a receiver.

Also, Westbrook's receptions were elevated since they didn't have very prolific receivers and he was basically used as a wide out.

Do you think Andy Reid could have used Portis as a wideout?

My numbers actually show the players Reception production. Which CP had more receptions for first downs. Which in my book is more important than anything. Well minus scoring.

Your numbers prove that you can cherry-pick the stats of a full-time player to show more production than a part-time player. Who would have guessed?

Coaches like their third-down back to be good at picking up blitzes but that task is secondary. The primary duty is to function as another receiver. That's why Mike Shanahan wanted Westbrook. And if the report that he considered bringing Betts back is true, it was probably because, as Jim Zorn realized, Betts makes a decent third-down back.

[Johns Bass]

okay I've thought about it. Our perfect third down back is Fred Davis. Block, catch... what more do you need?

Thank you and good night. Try the veal.

Why do you hate Williams so much? Last week you were giving his cred's to Torain... (just ribbing ya a bit)

Really...dude is a wrecking ball...(5'11/223)...and there must be some reason why the Skins keep throwing the ball his way (which he has done a pretty fair job of catching and really better than Torain).

Granted, he is not an All-Pro yet but Davis did drop a ball in the end zone so he is not so perfect either.

Granted I have a bit of a man lust for the kid but he has shown up pretty well overall so far.

[Sandman69]

That's a nice spin, but you can't just leave out the interpretation you don't like. The stat shows that, by comparison to the others, playcallers liked Clinton far more as a runner than as a receiver.

I can't but you can? That just showed that the others weren't trusted to be the every down back, and in an Offense such as ours has been with a nice emphasis on the run, of course there were more running plays. It also shows that CP was used as the every down back, which includes third down quite often.

Do you think Andy Reid could have used Portis as a wideout?

That just shows that their receiving core wasn't that great. If they had a better receiver than Westbrook, they probably would use that WR when they go , 3 or especially in 4 outs.

In our offense we don't need to put the back out, since we have two pass catching TEs, which as Zoony mentioned could play the typical role of a pass receiving back.

Good coaches put the best players in the right positions to be successful, and aren't that worried about labels.

Your numbers prove that you can cherry-pick the stats of a full-time player to show more production than a part-time player. Who would have guessed?

Average yard per catch is pretty close.

How about looking at the season Betts played the bulk when CP was hurt and one season for CP.

G Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st FUM

16 53 445 8.4 27.8 34 1 4 0 22 2

and CP

16 47 389 8.3 24.3 54 0 4 1 19 0

Looks like they trusted CP enough when he was in there to throw to him.