Trading Back Into Round 1 - QB and LT

[gorebd82]

I've seen and participated in a million threads so far about the quarterback vs. left tackle debate. The one thread that I haven't seen is one to debate the value of trading back into the 1st round to fill both of our major needs. I feel this move would make the majority of ES very happy and give us very talented players at both positions.

In both the 2007 and 2008 drafts, we saw teams apply this strategy to fill there needs at the two most important positions on offense, those teams were the Browns and Falcons, respectively. Now, both teams have had more success with their pick at 3 than their picks at 21 and 22, but this year has an unusually deep draft class and we could likely acquire a more highly regarded prospect than Sam Baker or Brady Quinn. Likewise, this depth would make our 2nd round pick more attractive to a potential trade partner because there will likely be a 1st round talent available.

I would like to begin a discussion on potential scenarios and the pros and cons of the Skins making such a move. My scenario would be that we pick our QB at 4, Bradford is my preference, and target a team in the teens to select the best tackle on the board. At that point in the draft, at least one or more of the big four tackles (Okung, Davis, Bulaga, Campbell) could still be on the board. Okung is considered a top ten guy, but as I have pointed out in other threads, there are more than 10 guys worthy of the top ten and Davis and/or Bulaga could easily leapfrog Okung. Right now, the other 3 tackles have been projected to go anywhere in the 10-32 range.

To pull this move, we would have a couple of options. The easier one would be to package our 2nd rounder with our 2011 1st to move up. I argue that this makes sense because we either get Okung, who was a consideration at #4, or we get one of the three junior tackles who would likely have gone top ten in 2011. Also, this year's junior exodus will deplete much of the 2011 class talent.

The other option I see as a possibility is to target Seattle as a trade partner and send our 2nd, 2011 2nd rounder and Jason Campbell for the #14 pick. They move back 24 slots, but get a future pick and a guy that learned from Hasselback's QB coach, will have a couple of months under Jeremy Bates' old boss, and is a much better insurance than a rookie to stay competitive if Hass is injured again.

So what do you guys think of this approach/scenario or do you have any of your own?

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

If you could get Seattle to bite on the second option, I'd take that in a heartbeat. Even better if you could a low end pick back from them for this or next year, but that might be pushing the boundaries a little too far.

The first option makes reasoned sense if the draft played out that way. That would have to be an on the day trade, but if the talent was still there, it would be worth serious consideration.

Hail.

[mhearn]

If you could get Seattle to bite on the second option, I'd take that in a heartbeat. Even better if you could a low end pick back from them for this or next year, but that might be pushing the boundaries a little too far.

The first option makes reasoned sense if the draft played out that way. That would have to be an on the day trade, but if the talent was still there, it would be worth serious consideration.

Hail.

yeah i agree i think this would be the best and most likely only option i would consider. although what you said about the tackle pool being slim for next year because of the juniors coming out does make me think. can't wait to see who we get:point2sky

[Gregpeck99]

Not a good idea because OLine pool generally very weak this year ... not much difference betrween Okung, Bulaga, Campbell, Williams and the others including Washington, Callaway, Saffold, Olatowski, and so on. Don't wimp out ... play your poker hand ... Skins can stay at 2 and get their OLineman if need be.

[RWJ]

Here's the thing you have to understand. ES Insiders have spoken and said that Shanny wants Bradford, so that's a done deal at #4 in the 1st round. Now, in the 2nd round it would be wise to trade down and acquire a 3rd round pick. Thoughts?

[gorebd82]

yeah i agree i think this would be the best and most likely only option i would consider. although what you said about the tackle pool being slim for next year because of the juniors coming out does make me think. can't wait to see who we get:point2sky

No, I didn't say the tackle pool would be slim, I said the overall talent pool would be a little more shallow. That would be particularly on the defensive side. But with QB and LT addressed, we wouldn't be pressed next year to reach or sell the farm for a guy. I actually think that next year we could get another solid offensive lineman in the second round if we decide to dip back into OL.

[mhearn]

Here's the thing you have to understand. ES Insiders have spoken and said that Shanny wants Bradford, so that's a done deal at #4 in the 1st round. Now, in the 2nd round it would be wise to trade down and acquire a 3rd round pick. Thoughts?

that's not a horrible idea, not sure of the values what would you get like a 3rd, 4th and 6th? considering its a high 2nd

[RWJ]

Plus, Shanny has been known to draft good zone blocking OL in the later parts of the draft. Plus, before Cerrato left I think Shanny had him make a play for the OT we have on our roster, I think his last name is Robinson. He's abouty 6' 4" and weighs 297lbs.

[ceviker]

Here's the thing you have to understand. ES Insiders have spoken and said that Shanny wants Bradford, so that's a done deal at #4 in the 1st round. Now, in the 2nd round it would be wise to trade down and acquire a 3rd round pick. Thoughts?

Do you mind posting a link to this discussion? I don't recall seeing this.

[gorebd82]

Not a good idea because OLine pool generally very weak this year ... not much difference betrween Okung, Bulaga, Campbell, Williams and the others including Washington, Callaway, Saffold, Olatowski, and so on. Don't wimp out ... play your poker hand ... Skins can stay at 2 and get their OLineman if need be.

I wouldn't necessarily agree with that. There's a pretty big gap in that group. Without Bulaga, Campbell and Davis coming out, the class was looking very weak. The problem was that Okung was much better than all the other seniors, but not an elite prospect. The senior class is terrible, but I'm saying we should get one of those 3 juniors because they are the most talented guys from a great 2011 class of linemen. All three of those juniors have much higher ceilings than Okung and I feel we can get a supreme talent at a discounted price.

[RWJ]

that's not a horrible idea, not sure of the values what would you get like a 3rd, 4th and 6th? considering its a high 2nd

Here's a link to a draft value chart.

http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/draft_point_value_chart.htm

[Going Commando]

It depends on the tackle really, and for this to work, I'm sure we'd have to go QB first at 4.

For Okung, you can make a good case for picking him at like 14 or something, but he should be long gone by then. I would definitely consider it for Bulaga or Davis. For Campbell, not as much because I think he is a very dangerous prospect to spend what amounts to a (probably early) 1st and 2nd round pick on. I'd only take him if we traded down.

Davis and Okung should be off the board by the mid teens, so Bulaga is probably our best bet for this to happen. I like him and think he's a good fit, and had he stayed in school, he probably would be the first OT off the board in 2011.

BUT, the 2011 class looks pretty strong at OT for both right and left prospects. Just off the top of my head, you'll have Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, Anthony Costanzo, and Jarriel King, Clint Boling, Blake DeCristopher, that guy from BYU and that guy from Boise St. eligible at LT. For RTs you'll have Marcus Cannon, Lee Ziemba, Joseph Barksdale, and that guy from USC.

So there are strong OT options on the horizon if we have to wait.

If we do trade our 2011 first and a 2nd to get someone like Bulaga, then I think we absolutely must trade some combination of Jason Campbell, Andre Carter, and Chris Cooley to recoup some draft picks. I'd trade all three. This is a really nice tight end class, if we can get a 2nd round pick from Cooley then we should do it. There are five guys in the 1st to 3rd round range that have the potential to be better than Cooley anyway: Hernandez, Gresham, Gronkowski, Dickson, and McCoy. Moekai is also a pretty good option in the middle rounds. I'd upgrade Cooley for Gresham or Gronkowski straight up anyway since they can block and have more physical upside.

[Madison Redskin]

I don't believe that a team that went 4-12, is implementing a new offensive scheme, has plenty of holes on the offensive line and a question mark at quarterback, has new coaches, and is implementing a new defensive scheme would be wise to trade away its 1st round pick in the following year. If you trade that 2011 1st round pick, it's going to be valued like a 2010 2nd round pick, even though it could very well end up being a top 5 or 10 pick.

I like the idea of trading down, not up.

[RWJ]

Do you mind posting a link to this discussion? I don't recall seeing this.

Not being a smart arse. Do some searching on this site and you will find where ES insiders have constantly said that Shanny wants Bradford.

[gorebd82]

Here's the thing you have to understand. ES Insiders have spoken and said that Shanny wants Bradford, so that's a done deal at #4 in the 1st round. Now, in the 2nd round it would be wise to trade down and acquire a 3rd round pick. Thoughts?

The problem is that we won't get a tackle that we can expect to start if we trade back from the 2nd. There was better value in the mid rounds for this tackle class before those juniors declared. There was one good prospect, Okung, and everyone else. So it made sense to get a bunch of mid round guys. But now with the juniors, they are much better than the mid round guys. We might luck into one slipping to the second, but they could all be gone by the 20s as well.

In this year's draft, I wouldn't trade back in the 2nd because the depth allows us to get a 1st round talent at 37. I would only trade up for someone were targeting at a major position of need.

[gorebd82]

It depends on the tackle really, and for this to work, I'm sure we'd have to go QB first at 4.

For Okung, you can make a good case for picking him at like 14 or something, but he should be long gone by then. I would definitely consider it for Bulaga or Davis. For Campbell, not as much because I think he is a very dangerous prospect to spend what amounts to a (probably early) 1st and 2nd round pick on. I'd only take him if we traded down.

Davis and Okung should be off the board by the mid teens, so Bulaga is probably our best bet for this to happen. I like him and think he's a good fit, and had he stayed in school, he probably would be the first OT off the board in 2011.

BUT, the 2011 class looks pretty strong at OT for both right and left prospects. Just off the top of my head, you'll have Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, Anthony Costanzo, and Jarriel King, Clint Boling, Blake DeCristopher, that guy from BYU and that guy from Boise St. eligible at LT. For RTs you'll have Marcus Cannon, Lee Ziemba, Joseph Barksdale, and that guy from USC.

So there are strong OT options on the horizon if we have to wait.

If we do trade our 2011 first and a 2nd to get someone like Bulaga, then I think we absolutely must trade some combination of Jason Campbell, Andre Carter, and Chris Cooley to recoup some draft picks. I'd trade all three. This is a really nice tight end class, if we can get a 2nd round pick from Cooley then we should do it. There are five guys in the 1st to 3rd round range that have the potential to be better than Cooley anyway: Hernandez, Gresham, Gronkowski, Dickson, and McCoy. Moekai is also a pretty good option in the middle rounds. I'd upgrade Cooley for Gronkowski straight up anyway since he can block.

Well, I think Campbell is only an option if tackles start flying off the board. I think Bulaga is most likely, but there's also the possibility that we have a choice between Bulaga and Davis or Okung.

As for the tackles in 2011, the strength of that group why I think we can get our other bookend in the 2nd that year. My thinking is that I'd rather have Bulaga and Barksdale, or Davis and Ziemba, or if a guy like Solder falls to the 2nd, Bulaga and Solder. If we get one of our bookends this year, we don't have to get tackles 1st and 2nd next year. Or this year we might end up with Charles Brown, but that would keep us from taking an LT next year since Brown doesn't really project to the right side. A Brown/Barksdale combo isn't as pretty.

Also, getting that tackle in the teens this year should help that 1st rounder from being too early in the draft.

[gorebd82]

I don't believe that a team that went 4-12, is implementing a new offensive scheme, has plenty of holes on the offensive line and a question mark at quarterback, has new coaches, and is implementing a new defensive scheme would be wise to trade away its 1st round pick in the following year. If you trade that 2011 1st round pick, it's going to be valued like a 2010 2nd round pick, even though it could very well end up being a top 5 or 10 pick.

I like the idea of trading down, not up.

I believe 4-12 had just as much to do with Jim Zorn and Greg Blache as it did with the personnel. With Shanahan running the show and this defense, I do not expect us to be in the top ten picks next year and certainly not the top five.

Not saying we make the playoffs (but I think we can sneak in), but Shanahan will not make the game deciding mistakes that Zorn did. This team is better than 4 wins.

[Going Commando]

Well, I think Campbell is only an option if tackles start flying off the board. I think Bulaga is most likely, but there's also the possibility that we have a choice between Bulaga and Davis or Okung.

As for the tackles in 2011, the strength of that group why I think we can get our other bookend in the 2nd that year. My thinking is that I'd rather have Bulaga and Barksdale, or Davis and Ziemba, or if a guy like Solder falls to the 2nd, Bulaga and Solder. If we get one of our bookends this year, we don't have to get tackles 1st and 2nd next year. Or this year we might end up with Charles Brown, but that would keep us from taking an LT next year since Brown doesn't really project to the right side. A Brown/Barksdale combo isn't as pretty.

Also, getting that tackle in the teens this year should help that 1st rounder from being too early in the draft.

That's true, getting a stud LT and better coaching should improve our offense drastically which means we won't be picking so high hopefully.

As I see it, unless we get very very lucky, we need to draft atleast two starting offensive tackles, a quarterback, and a nose tackle here in the first two rounds of 2010 and 2011. That is, if we are truly serious about switching to a 3-4 of course. We won't be able to do that if we trade next year's first unless we recoup some picks somehow. We might be able to find a good starting RT in the 3rd or later, but I wouldn't put money on that bet. We might be best off just sitting tight and picking our QB at 4 and someone like Terrence Cody at 37, and then grabbing someone like Saffold in the middle rounds, this year, and then targeting someone like Boling, Solder, or Carimi in the first round next season, and then that RT from USC in the second. It's critical that we get those four positions and RB figured out somehow for us to succeed in rebuilding.

There are more ways to improve the team than the draft though. Maybe we can hope for something from a trade or FA. Our options there probably won't be better than what we can do in the draft though.

[Skins_Win_Again]

Here's the thing you have to understand. ES Insiders have spoken and said that Shanny wants Bradford, so that's a done deal at #4 in the 1st round. Now, in the 2nd round it would be wise to trade down and acquire a 3rd round pick. Thoughts?

i'm not arguing if getting bradford is a good or bad idea, but just because a few reports have expressed their beliefs that we'll take him, dosn't mean it's a "done deal". many reports are wrong all the time

[texasthunder]

So if Bradford/Clausen is there at pick #4, the phone rings and Seattle say they want to trade picks, plus some.

Do you make the trade and pick up a QB in later rounds ?

Or do you still grab the QB ?

[SkinsBoss]

it's common sense for allen and shanahan to give more misinformation than real information before the draft simply to provide the best leverage possible for any trade. So all the reports about us taking Bradford at 4 might be there simply to try and get Seattle or somebody else to bite in order to try and get the extra picks.

[icbmayday]

I don't want to trade any of our future picks or JC in rebuilding a team we need all our pics for next year also. This will be a rebuilding year save next year draft picks rebuild the O line go with JC

[Going Commando]

I don't want to trade any of our future picks or JC in rebuilding a team we need all our pics for next year also. This will be a rebuilding year save next year draft picks rebuild the O line go with JC

We can either trade Campbell now or let him walk later. I don't have any illusions that he's anything more than a stop gap for us at this point. If we draft a QB this season, his value will likely plummet. If we wait until next year to draft a QB, then that guy will have sit behind a new transition quarterback and the process will only take a little longer and we'll get nothing from Campbell. Campbell has some value now. Even if we don't like Bradford and don't take a QB, why not at least shop Campbell around to see what you can get from him. If it's a second round pick or better, go ahead and move him and see if you can't find a stop gap like Jeff Garcia or Chad Pennington or whoever until you can draft your own QB?

[Madison Redskin]

I believe 4-12 had just as much to do with Jim Zorn and Greg Blache as it did with the personnel. With Shanahan running the show and this defense, I do not expect us to be in the top ten picks next year and certainly not the top five.

Not saying we make the playoffs (but I think we can sneak in), but Shanahan will not make the game deciding mistakes that Zorn did. This team is better than 4 wins.

Jacksonville went 7-9 and got the 10th overall pick. I think it is very well possible that we'd have a top 10 pick next season, even if we nearly DOUBLE our win total.

[Going Commando]

Jacksonville went 7-9 and got the 10th overall pick. I think it is very well possible that we'd have a top 10 pick next season, even if we nearly DOUBLE our win total.

Well, say we did that and picked 10th next year. Would we get as good a LT as Bulaga or Davis next year? Those guys would be very high picks in 2011. As good as Carimi has been (and he's been very good) I still don't know if he's as dominant as Bulaga in the same conference at the same age with pretty much the same level of experience. Carimi will probably go high now because he doesn't have to compete against Davis, Campbell, and Bulaga. You're paying an extra second rounder to get a pretty good tackle a year early. That cost gets mitigated if you trade some of our own players to recoup picks.