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Colts prove TOP is the most overrated stat in football


MattFancy

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Big Play Pey-Pey is probably the smartest QB in the NFL, that's always been the case. He's like having a coach on the field with you. He led that team so well out there, this game proved that much.

Watching Peyton march them downfield, calling audibles, making play after play was like watching a piece of art in action.

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QB rating. That's the most overrated and misleading stat in football.

TOP? To an extent it's overrated, it's certainly not the be all and end all. It's what you do with the possession that counts. But I'd wager the majority of the time the team winning that battle comes out on top.

Hail.

It would seem very difficult to isolate how important TOP is, considering the team that's leading tends to run. I also couldn't find any historical per-team or win/loss stats on TOP in a quick search. But since TOP is affected significantly by a lead, I'd think the best analysis would be 1st half only, or quarter by quarter. The teams that are two scores ahead in the fourth quarter running the ball and letting the play clock burn all the way down would really skew the stats of "best TOP wins games".

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I agree.

Having the better TOP means the other team has less time to score...

Exactly. And notice that it took a phenomenal offensive and defensive performance for the Colts to win in spite of drastically losing the TOP battle not because of it. They eked out a win against an over-matched team when I bet the margin of victory would have been a lot bigger if they'd kept the ball out of Miami's hands.

And as for us against the Rams, if we hadn't been so dominant in TOP, we would have lost that game, especially since we were only kicking field goals. It makes no sense to say that TOP is meaningless because we only won by two despite controlling the clock 9 minutes more. If you flip the TOP around we would have gotten crushed.

Lastly, one can bring up the Colts and then I can bring up the Titans. They both scored a bunch of points on big plays and both substantially lost the TOP battle and Tennessee ended up losing because they let Houston score just as often, with the difference that Houston got to dictate the flow of the game, especially within the crucial final minutes of the fourth quarter. You don't ever want your defense on the field for a long time.

All things being equal, give me a 14 play 10 minute drive that ends in a touchdown every day over a 2 play 20 second drive for a touchdown. The only exception to that is if you are down by a lot but that means you were probably already getting crushed in the TOP anyway.

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