ES: Redskins are nothing without Samuels

[themurf]

photo by Brian Murphy

Over the last few weeks we ran a two-part interview with Doug Farrar, who authored the Washington Redskins chapter for the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009.

While several interested nuggets came out of that conversation, the most intriguing item was Farrar’s claim that the entire 2008 season unraveled because of the injury to Pro Bowl tackle Chris Samuels.

As a refresher, here’s a quick recap:

“They posted their three worst [defense-adjusted value over average] totals in week eight, when he was out with a knee [injury] and then the last few weeks of the season, once he was done for the year,” Farrar said. “One of our stats – adjusted line yards – tries to separate as best we can, an offensive line performance from a running back performance. Weeks one through seven, they had a 4.86. Weeks eight through 13, it was 4.20. That was with Samuels out one game. Weeks 14 through 17, it was 3.74, meaning it plummeted an entire yard.”

So basically, the stats show the Redskins offense got a yard worse per play with Samuels on the sideline. And that’s not all.

According to Farrar, the Redskins power rank (which measures a team’s success rate in short-yardage situations) went from 86 percent to 50 percent. And running back yards went from 4.78 per play the first seven weeks to an anemic 2.92 the final three weeks of the season.

Armed with this information, we felt obligated to ensure Samuels knew just how vitally important he is to the team’s success.

Hey Chris, did you know the downfall of the entire 2008 season was your injury?

“I tell you what, we’ve got a great group of lineman up front,” Samuels said, attempting to go into ‘player-speak’ mode. “We’re solid up front, in my opinion. We lost some good players from last year, but we replaced them with good players like Derrick Dockery and now with Stephon Heyer starting. So I can’t just take credit for anything like that. Maybe in those particular games they were doing something different on the defensive side with their schemes against us.”

No, sir. When the stats show the Redskins offense basically shut down without you in there, you can’t downplay this …

“The defense had a great game that day,” he said with a laugh.

The Bengals? You’re going to play that card when we’re talking about losing to Cincinnati?

Click here for the full article.

[SWFLSkins]

That write was on point and it shows what great character Samuels has. What he brings to the Skins can't be measured.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Both Chris and Randy.

We lose either from the front five, (who still have it all to prove going forward if were honest, as encouraging as they performed in pre-season. This Sunday will be a real test against that Giant defensive front), and everything unravels from there. Aside from the glaringly obvious behind them, that's the one serious concern on this team going into '09, the depth, or lack of quality there of, on the O-line, particularly at tackle.

2 rookies, a 2nd year guard that only got activated last year due to injury late, and never made the field once, Batiste..... really?; with big Mike Williams being the only real name of note, and at that he got repeatedly beat in pass coverage when he played this pre-season and looks FAR from ready to step in.

Is anyone really confident that any of the above are ready to step in and do a competent job now the real stuff's about to begin and we move up a whole other level from pre-season play?

Here's praying the injury Gods are kind to our front 5, and two key vets. in particular, or else this will be a longer year than many of us fear already.

Hail.

[21forlyfe]

nice read..(if healthy) Samules is going to the probowl again this year..though,Imo Zorn's predictable,conservative,and timid play calling,all helped contribute to the decrease in the adverage per yards

[21forlyfe]

Both Chris and Randy.

We lose either from the front five, (who still have it all to prove going forward if were honest, as encouraging as they performed in pre-season. This Sunday will be a real test against that Giant defensive front), and everything unravels from there. Aside from the glaringly obvious behind them, that's the one serious concern on this team going into '09, the depth, or lack of quality there of, on the O-line, particularly at tackle.

2 rookies, a 2nd year guard that only got activated last year due to injury late, and never made the field once, Batiste..... really?; with big Mike Williams being the only real name of note, and at that he got repeatedly beat in pass coverage when he played this pre-season and looks FAR from ready to step in.

Is anyone really confident that any of the above are ready to step in and do a competent job now the real stuff's about to begin and we move up a whole other level from pre-season play?

Here's praying the injury Gods are kind to our front 5, and two key vets. in particular, or else this will be a longer year than many of us fear already.

Hail.

Hail to that:D

[themurf]

Both Chris and Randy.

We lose either from the front five, (who still have it all to prove going forward if were honest, as encouraging as they performed in pre-season. This Sunday will be a real test against that Giant defensive front), and everything unravels from there. Aside from the glaringly obvious behind them, that's the one serious concern on this team going into '09, the depth, or lack of quality there of, on the O-line, particularly at tackle.

I don't know if I am in the minority or not, but I simply do not think Randy Thomas will be able to go a full 16 games anymore. He's great when he's in there, but he's just been too banged up over the last couple years to be able to count on for an entire season. And you're right. There's no real depth to speak of on the offensive line.

If you're a 'Skins fan, pray that the starting five stays healthy. Because, if not, it's going to get ugly.

[authentic]

A comment apart from the excellent article....Is there a way to fix the rating at the top of the thread? Everytime i try to rate the post it says, "you have already rated this thread"...Thanks.

[TheLongshot]

I don't know if I am in the minority or not, but I simply do not think Randy Thomas will be able to go a full 16 games anymore. He's great when he's in there, but he's just been too banged up over the last couple years to be able to count on for an entire season. And you're right. There's no real depth to speak of on the offensive line.

If you're a 'Skins fan, pray that the starting five stays healthy. Because, if not, it's going to get ugly.

I'll correct you slightly. There is no PROVEN depth. We have a lot of young guys who haven't done much on an NFL field. It doesn't mean that they CAN'T do the job. It is one of the prices of getting younger that you have to trust young players to step up when they are needed. Considering that Buges has been pretty good at patching the OL with off-the-shelf pieces, I'm not too worried if one guy goes down.

It will be interesting to see if Williams can get back into shape and become a valuable backup. Unfortunately, we won't find out that this season unless he goes in or he gets replaced at some point.

[authentic]

I don't know if I am in the minority or not, but I simply do not think Randy Thomas will be able to go a full 16 games anymore. He's great when he's in there, but he's just been too banged up over the last couple years to be able to count on for an entire season. And you're right. There's no real depth to speak of on the offensive line.

If you're a 'Skins fan, pray that the starting five stays healthy. Because, if not, it's going to get ugly.

I think the entire season hangs on the health of the offensive line. If they are healthy, we are in the playoffs. If we have to rely on the backups, JZ and JC jobs are in trouble. Point blank!

[boofMcboof]

I think the entire season hangs on the health of the offensive line. If they are healthy, we are in the playoffs. If we have to rely on the backups, JZ and JC jobs are in trouble. Point blank!

I agree. The defense is going to keep us in games but the OL is going to need to stay healthy and move those chains.

[Hiro]

I'll correct you slightly. There is no PROVEN depth. We have a lot of young guys who haven't done much on an NFL field. It doesn't mean that they CAN'T do the job. It is one of the prices of getting younger that you have to trust young players to step up when they are needed. Considering that Buges has been pretty good at patching the OL with off-the-shelf pieces, I'm not too worried if one guy goes down.

Agree with this 100%. We for once actually have a nice handful of young bodies who have shown promise in TC and the preseason with Rinehart, Batiste, and Edwin Williams. While they are all still a bit raw and have a ways to go in becoming refined and starting caliber offensive linemen, who is to say that one of these three can't step in and play well if one of our guys goes down?

Keep in mind that it wasn't so long ago that we lost Jansen in the season opener, and the only real backup we had was some undrafted rookie out of MD. I personally trust the coaches' judgment on this one. If they honestly felt that they were in serious need of an upgrade, I'm positive they would have gone after a veteran backup, or gone and traded for a Pete Kendall type of player by now. I also believe that Thomas is going to go down at some point, and am quite curious to see how Rinehart will respond to being promoted in the regular season.

[themurf]

A comment apart from the excellent article....Is there a way to fix the rating at the top of the thread? Everytime i try to rate the post it says, "you have already rated this thread"...Thanks.

Not sure how or why it happens, but every once in a while a bug makes it so some threads are locked at five stars and some are locked at one. Looks like today was this thread's day in the barrel.

[themurf]

I'll correct you slightly. There is no PROVEN depth.

That's one of the big 'take aways' from my interview with Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. They're pretty much of the mindset that the last two NFL drafts have been the deepest tackle drafts possibly in NFL history. We all know that the Redskins offensive line is old and some of the guys have had trouble staying healthy. Instead of using a first or second rounder in either of the last two drafts to shore up a clear need, the team opted to go in a different direction.

If Rinehart, Batiste and some of the other guys actually turn out to be dependable players, then everything's okay. But last year the depth was so bad that opposing teams felt obligated to inform Zorn that if changes weren't made, Campbell was going to get hurt because of his substandard line.

Whether a guy like Terrell Suggs is a blowhard or not, you don't ever want to hear you're line is so bad that opposing teams feel bad. I'm not suggesting that they should have passed on Orakpo or anyone else. But until I see otherwise, I'm going to continue to believe the offensive line is an issue.

[TheLongshot]

That's one of the big 'take aways' from my interview with Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. They're pretty much of the mindset that the last two NFL drafts have been the deepest tackle drafts possibly in NFL history. We all know that the Redskins offensive line is old and some of the guys have had trouble staying healthy. Instead of using a first or second rounder in either of the last two drafts to shore up a clear need, the team opted to go in a different direction.

Well, in 2008 they were at the tail end of that depth with their 1st round pick. They instead decided to trade back and pick what was a larger need at the time. No tackles got selected in the 2nd round. In 2009, it was the lack of a 2nd round pick that prevented us from taking a tackle in that draft.

BTW, I disagree that the tackle class was deep. It certainly was topheavy in talent, but beyond the top guys, there wasn't much. A lot of the tackles drafted in 2008 and 2009 are guys who were going to be moved to guard, and that includes Rinehart.

If Rinehart, Batiste and some of the other guys actually turn out to be dependable players, then everything's okay. But last year the depth was so bad that opposing teams felt obligated to inform Zorn that if changes weren't made, Campbell was going to get hurt because of his substandard line.

Whether a guy like Terrell Suggs is a blowhard or not, you don't ever want to hear you're line is so bad that opposing teams feel bad. I'm not suggesting that they should have passed on Orakpo or anyone else. But until I see otherwise, I'm going to continue to believe the offensive line is an issue.

You taking quotes out of context? That was about Zorn putting in Geisinger at LT because he only had one backup tackle active and we had already lost Jansen in that game. That was more about how Zorn managed his roster rather than the players on the roster.

BTW, the focus in the backups this offseason seems to be about versitility. Guys made the roster because the coaching staff felt comfortable that a lot of those players could cover multiple positions. The only ones who don't right now is Williams and Rinehart.

[McD5]

That's one of the big 'take aways' from my interview with Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. They're pretty much of the mindset that the last two NFL drafts have been the deepest tackle drafts possibly in NFL history. We all know that the Redskins offensive line is old and some of the guys have had trouble staying healthy. Instead of using a first or second rounder in either of the last two drafts to shore up a clear need, the team opted to go in a different direction.

If Rinehart, Batiste and some of the other guys actually turn out to be dependable players, then everything's okay. But last year the depth was so bad that opposing teams felt obligated to inform Zorn that if changes weren't made, Campbell was going to get hurt because of his substandard line.

Whether a guy like Terrell Suggs is a blowhard or not, you don't ever want to hear you're line is so bad that opposing teams feel bad. I'm not suggesting that they should have passed on Orakpo or anyone else. But until I see otherwise, I'm going to continue to believe the offensive line is an issue.

Agreed. It could kill us this season.

We will see about 8 game or so. Just pray that everyone stays healthy.

[Pedro]

Big difference between last year's line and this. The starters may essentially be the same but the backups are mostly young. Fits in with the longer term view our FO looks to be taking now. We hoped that would happen after the win now approach crashed and burned, a few times. Gonna take another year to complete the transition though.

Don't most teams that win the SB have a 'lucky' year injury wise?

[NewCliche21]

What an amazing guy. Murf, perfect as always.

I think that we should be ashamed for not winning one, not because of the fans, but because if we get a ring, then Samuels is in the Hall.

[Dark Acre]

What an amazing guy. Murf, perfect as always.

I think that we should be ashamed for not winning one, not because of the fans, but because if we get a ring, then Samuels is in the Hall.

Three rings and 4 NFC Championships haven't gotten any of the Hogs in the HoF and they were a helluva lot more self-promoting than Samuels.

[themurf]

Big difference between last year's line and this. The starters may essentially be the same but the backups are mostly young. Fits in with the longer term view our FO looks to be taking now. We hoped that would happen after the win now approach crashed and burned, a few times. Gonna take another year to complete the transition though.

Don't most teams that win the SB have a 'lucky' year injury wise?

I agree with you 100 percent that getting younger is necessary. I just wish the team was able to find a middle ground somewhere between using five first-rounders in a row to revamp the offensive line and rebuilding with a bunch of undrafted free agents.

Of course, the one middle-round draft pick they did use was on Chad Rinehart and no one can say for sure whether or not he's a legitimate NFL-caliber player. So nevermind.

[themurf]

You taking quotes out of context? That was about Zorn putting in Geisinger at LT because he only had one backup tackle active and we had already lost Jansen in that game. That was more about how Zorn managed his roster rather than the players on the roster.

Out of context?

If the team had real depth a year ago (meaning guys like Justin Geisinger aren't on the roster), then he wouldn't have been standing in front of Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Baltimore Ravens. Spin it however it helps you to sleep at night, but that's the moral of the story.

[TheLongshot]

Out of context?

If the team had real depth a year ago (meaning guys like Justin Geisinger aren't on the roster), then he wouldn't have been standing in front of Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Baltimore Ravens. Spin it however it helps you to sleep at night, but that's the moral of the story.

I'm not spinning anything, just stating facts. The fact is that the second backup tackle, Fabini, was inactive for the Baltimore game. It was a choice Zorn went with, betting that we wouldn't need both backup tackles. It was a choice he made often that season, since he was only active for 7 games.

[themurf]

I'm not spinning anything, just stating facts. The fact is that the second backup tackle, Fabini, was inactive for the Baltimore game. It was a choice Zorn went with, betting that we wouldn't need both backup tackles. It was a choice he made often that season, since he was only active for 7 games.

You're doing my work for me - both Jason Fabini and Justin Geisinger are currently unemployed, which reinforces my belief that in the absence of actual NFL-quality depth, these guys collected a free paycheck.

ps - Jim Zorn doesn't have say on the roster. He's stuck with whatever management hands him. If you don't believe me, go read how many times he's on record saying he wants Jason Campbell to be his QB and how many times the team ignored him and tried to bring in anyone else.

[TheLongshot]

You're doing my work for me - both Jason Fabini and Justin Geisinger are currently unemployed, which reinforces my belief that in the absence of actual NFL-quality depth, these guys collected a free paycheck.

Well, Geisinger was in camp with the Panthers. I didn't realize he didn't make the roster, but it doesn't sound like they cut anyone who wasn't on the roster last year, so he probably needed to beat an incumbent to make the roster.

As for Fabini, I don't see anyone bringing in an aging vet until injuries set in. The same goes with Kendall, who is also still on the open market despite doing a good job as a starter last year.

ps - Jim Zorn doesn't have say on the roster. He's stuck with whatever management hands him. If you don't believe me, go read how many times he's on record saying he wants Jason Campbell to be his QB and how many times the team ignored him and tried to bring in anyone else.

Where did I say anything about Zorn's control of the roster? I'm talking about the guys who were on the roster and who he decided to leave inactive. He decided that two reserve OL were enough for the Baltimore game.

[Pedro]

...between using five first-rounders in a row.....

I'd be happy with 5 first rounders in a row. Always a sellers market for good OL.

Of course, the one middle-round draft pick they did use was on Chad Rinehart and no one can say for sure whether or not he's a legitimate NFL-caliber player. So nevermind.

You generally get what you pay for. Samuels is a good example of that, so is Heyer. Both are doing well for where they were drafted (or not).

[KNGwithOUTaCrwN]

thats something everybody prays for every year. no injuries. and hopefully there are no major injuries this year. it had been real tough for us when we have lost our offensive line starters. lets just hope it doesnt happen again.