hokie4redskins Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 I thought this was interesting. Where are our resident conspiracy theorists? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a62_boqkurbI June 17 (Bloomberg) -- It’s a plot better suited for a John Le Carre novel. Two Japanese men are detained in Italy after allegedly attempting to take $134 billion worth of U.S. bonds over the border into Switzerland. Details are maddeningly sketchy, so naturally the global rumor mill is kicking into high gear. Are these would-be smugglers agents of Kim Jong Il stashing North Korea’s cash in a Swiss vault? Bagmen for Nigerian Internet scammers? Was the money meant for terrorists looking to buy nuclear warheads? Is Japan dumping its dollars secretly? Are the bonds real or counterfeit? The implications of the securities being legitimate would be bigger than investors may realize. At a minimum, it would suggest that the U.S. risks losing control over its monetary supply on a massive scale. The trillions of dollars of debt the U.S. will issue in the next couple of years needs buyers. Attracting them will require making sure that existing ones aren’t losing faith in the U.S.’s ability to control the dollar. The dollar is, for better or worse, the core of our world economy and it’s best to keep it stable. News that’s more fitting for international spy novels than the financial pages won’t help that effort. It is incumbent upon the U.S. Treasury to get to the bottom of this tale and keep markets informed. GDP Carriers Think about it: These two guys were carrying the gross domestic product of New Zealand or enough for three Beijing Olympics. If economies were for sale, the men could buy Slovakia and Croatia and have plenty left over for Mongolia or Cambodia. Yes, they could have built vacation homes amidst Genghis Khan’s Gobi Desert or the famed Temples of Angkor. Bernard Madoff who? These men carrying bonds concealed in the bottom of their luggage also would be the fourth-largest U.S. creditors. It makes you wonder if some of the time Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner spends keeping the Chinese and Japanese invested in dollars should be devoted to well-financed men crossing the Italian-Swiss border. This tale has gotten little attention in markets, perhaps because of the absurdity of our times. The last year has been a decidedly disorienting one for capitalists who once knew up from down, red from black and risk from reward. It almost fits with the surreal nature of today that a couple of travelers have more U.S. debt than Brazil in a suitcase and, well, that’s life. Clancy Bestseller You can almost picture Tom Clancy sitting in his study thinking: “Damn! Why didn’t I think of this yarn and novelize it years ago?” He could have sprinkled in a Chinese angle, a pinch of Russian intrigue, a dose of Pyongyang and a bit of Taiwan-Strait tension into the mix. Presto, a sure bestseller. Daniel Craig may be thinking this is a great story on which to base the next James Bond flick. Perhaps Don Johnson could buy the rights to this tale. In 2002, the “Miami Vice” star was stopped by German customs officers as he was traveling in a car carrying credit notes and other securities worth as much as $8 billion. Now he could claim it was all, uh, research. When I first heard of the $134 billion story, I was tempted to glance at my calendar to make sure it didn’t read April 1. Let’s assume for a moment that these U.S. bonds are real. That would make a mockery of Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano’s “absolutely unshakable” confidence in the credibility of the U.S. dollar. Yosano would have some explaining to do about Japan’s $686 billion of U.S. debt if more of these suitcase capers come to light. ‘Kennedy Bonds’ Counterfeit $100 bills are one thing; two guys with undeclared bonds including 249 certificates worth $500 million and 10 “Kennedy bonds” of $1 billion each is quite another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 I saw this, I can't believe now after two weeks we still don't know who these "japanese" business men where or weather the bonds were real. One would think Italy would be dancing a jig by now if they were real, and would be all over the news if they were fake... It's very scary that the treasury is totally silent on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 We had a thread on this: http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?t=289779&highlight=Japanese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 I saw this, I can't believe now after two weeks we still don't know who these "japanese" business men where or weather the bonds were real. One would think Italy would be dancing a jig by now if they were real, and would be all over the news if they were fake...It's very scary that the treasury is totally silent on this event. The first article (which simply covered the facts, without trying to spin it, and therefore was about four paragraphs long) said that in Italy, the penalty for trying to carry cash, undeclared, through customs was 40% of the amount. (Wondering why it isn't 100%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokie4redskins Posted June 18, 2009 Author Share Posted June 18, 2009 We had a thread on this:http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?t=289779&highlight=Japanese :doh: I guess the google search of ES has finally caught up with me. This article is more interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 The first article (which simply covered the facts, without trying to spin it, and therefore was about four paragraphs long) said that in Italy, the penalty for trying to carry cash, undeclared, through customs was 40% of the amount. (Wondering why it isn't 100%) Yeah so Italy is very very happy if the bonds turn out to be real.. But if they turn out to be real the United States has another problem doesn't it. What are hundreds of billions of real US treasuries doing in the false bottome of a japanese suitecase? If they aren't real, Italy won't be happy; but the US shouldn't be happy either. The artical says they are high quality forgories if they aren't real. That should give us pause. What I don't get is why treasury is silent on this. It's like their deer caught in the headlights... frozen!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 Yeah so Italy is very very happy if the bonds turn out to be real.. Agreed. In fact, I'd anticipate a bunch of law enforcement agencies spending a lot of time fighting over them. For example, if this money were the profit from a crime, (ya think, maybe?), then does the US have a claim on it? I anticipate a lot of lawyers getting a cut of this. But if they turn out to be real the United States has another problem doesn't it. Why? If, say, a Colombian drug lord has a billion dollars cash in his basement, it's a crisis for the US how? How does the fact that US currency is circulating in the world's economy pose a problem for the US? What are hundreds of billions of real US treasuries doing in the false bottome of a japanese suitecase? Well, I ain't certain, but my suspicion is that somebody's doing something illegal. :obvious: (Although maybe it's just the CEO of Haliburton depositing his quarterly bonus.) "No doubt some local fisherman, out for a pleasure cruise, at night, in eel-infested waters." If they aren't real, Italy won't be happy Actually, I find myself wondering. The thought occurs to me that if I'm the US, is it to my advantage to say they're fake, even it they're real? If I announce them as fake, then have I just reduced the amount of money that the US Treasury owes to foreigners by $134B? Surely (and don't call me Shirley) the US can't simply wave away some serious debt by claiming that the bills are fake. But I don't know. but the US shouldn't be happy either. The artical says they are high quality forgories if they aren't real. That should give us pause. Dunno about that, either. Suppose they're really, really, really good fakes. Is that a problem for the US? Or is it just a problem for people who buy suitcases full of Billion-dollar bills from strangers? How many honest people actually deal in Billion dollar bills that they can't say who they got them from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 24, 2009 Share Posted June 24, 2009 Just an update. I caught an article about this in my local paper a few days ago. (Unfortunately, I lost the physical paper, and it was a reprint of an article from another paper, so it's not on my paper's web site doesn't have it.) The article said that Treasury has not officially said if the notes are fake, but it also said that the suitcase contained something like $130B in $500M notes, and there are only $103B total in circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Washington Posted June 24, 2009 Share Posted June 24, 2009 The article said that Treasury has not officially said if the notes are fake, but it also said that the suitcase contained something like $130B in $500M notes, and there are only $103B total in circulation so they're fake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 24, 2009 Share Posted June 24, 2009 so they're fake? Well, I suppose it's theoretically possible that the suitcase contsins every single one of the notes that have ever been printed in the entire history of the US treasury, and $30B worth of fakes. Anybody want to bet on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnyderShrugged Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 I'm not sure if I recall this right, but wasnt there a fake bond scam involving the North Koreans a few years ago too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 One of the things I'm wondering is WTF they thought they were going to do with them. Walk up to the teller window at a Swiss bank and say they needed a deposit slip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnyderShrugged Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 what worries me most is that fakes like these may exist in much higher numbers. Like roaches, if you see one, you know there are hundreds more you dont see. What would be the economic impact of massive quantities of fake bonds hitting the public? Might be nothing, I honestly dont know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnhay Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 One of the things I'm wondering is WTF they thought they were going to do with them. Walk up to the teller window at a Swiss bank and say they needed a deposit slip? Every time I hear about someone stealing a huge amount of money, I always wonder how they stash it. Do banks just not ask questions when they get all that money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Well, I can play detective about who it might be. Seems to me that, in order to produce a good fake, you have to have seen a real one. Seems to me to be real unlikely that a $500M T-bill has ever set foot in the country of North Korea in it's entire history. What is that, 50 years of their GDP? (Although, I suppose it's possible that some middle east country might have some 500M bills that they'd be willing to pay for nuclear technology. But why wouldn't they buy it from Muslims in Pakistan, instead?) I wouldn't put it past China to have plans in the works to attack us economically. But it seems to me that putting that many fake notes into circulation wouldn't help the country that has so many real ones. I admit, it's an alien world, that kind of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdskn4Lyf21 Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 I'm not sure if I recall this right, but wasnt there a fake bond scam involving the North Koreans a few years ago too? Yep and they mistakenly put an incorrect image on the back of them making them obvious fakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnyderShrugged Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Yep and they mistakenly put an incorrect image on the back of them making them obvious fakes. wasnt it the space shuttle or something way too modern to be legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 what worries me most is that fakes like these may exist in much higher numbers. Like roaches, if you see one, you know there are hundreds more you dont see.What would be the economic impact of massive quantities of fake bonds hitting the public? Might be nothing, I honestly dont know. I don't see how anybody could expect to pass them. It's not like you can go through the drive through and get a Big Mac, large Coke, and can you break a $500M? How many people are there in the world who are willing to buy a suitcase full of $500M bills from a stranger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnyderShrugged Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 I don't see how anybody could expect to pass them. It's not like you can go through the drive through and get a Big Mac, large Coke, and can you break a $500M? How many people are there in the world who are willing to buy a suitcase full of $500M bills from a stranger? I hear ya. Just trying to figure out what benefit there was for them to take the risk of smuggling them over international borders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdskn4Lyf21 Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 wasnt it the space shuttle or something way too modern to be legit? I'm pretty sure that was the case. Apollo keeps coming to mind, but I've put too much effort into the Walpin deal and forgot some details of this. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Now, I could see some Arab sheik pulling up to a Swiss bank with a suitcase of $500M bills, and having the Swiss take them. Not sure that they'd take them from anybody else, though. Edit: And I really could see some Arab sheik giving North Korea a suitcase full of fake $500M bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnyderShrugged Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 I'm pretty sure that was the case. Apollo keeps coming to mind, but I've put too much effort into the Walpin deal and forgot some details of this. Sorry! LOL! Hey, I cant remember either so alls groovy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdskn4Lyf21 Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 LOL! Hey, I cant remember either so alls groovy! But you are in your 30s, that's to be expected as you age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 what worries me most is that fakes like these may exist in much higher numbers. Like roaches, if you see one, you know there are hundreds more you dont see.What would be the economic impact of massive quantities of fake bonds hitting the public? Might be nothing, I honestly dont know. I think most major financial institutions get their Treasury bills/notes/bonds from Fed auctions or from primary dealers, who have a reputation to maintain and are probably scrupulous about the securities they hold. So I wouldn't worry about the stability of the financial system. That being said, I could see them being sold to unsophisticated investors or governments in the Third World. I'd imagine you'd know they were fraudulent the minute you don't receive your first interest payment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnyderShrugged Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 But you are in your 30s, that's to be expected as you age Oh low blow!! (But I did notice some grays on the side of my head this morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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