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SI: Banks: Playoff turnover: Six new teams in


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New year, same old media love for the Pokes :doh:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/05/07/friday.insider/index.html

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Playoff turnover: Six new teams in, six old ones out for '09 postseason

Since the NFL's realignment to eight four-team divisions in 2002, the league's 12-team postseason has averaged slightly more than six new entries per year (6.4 to be exact, see table). That means we have come to count on at least half the NFL playoff field rolling over most every season, making for the annual guessing game of who's in and who's out when it comes to next January's Super Bowl tournament.

With the majority of this offseason's personnel maneuvers behind us, it's time to hazard our best guesses about the turnover factor in the 2009 playoff field. The goal is two-fold: Identify which six non-playoff qualifiers from 2008 (three in each conference) will take a step up and make the postseason in 2009, and which six 2008 playoff teams won't return. Think of it as an extremely early version of who's hot and who's not, well before the first whistle of this season is even blown.

Six new playoff teams in 2009

NFC

• New Orleans -- When I project the last-place Saints to make the jump to the 2009 playoffs, I'm counting on more than the NFC South's penchant to reshuffle itself almost each and every season. The defensive improvement I foresaw for New Orleans last season never materialized, as a wave of injuries and the same old propensity to allow the big play doomed Sean Payton's club to the fate of losing a series of high-scoring games.

But the Saints offense is special (a league-high 463 points), and with six of its eight losses by a combined 18 points, New Orleans was tantalizingly close to winning and winning big. Can't win big if your defense gives up 24.6 points per game, you say? Tell that to Arizona, which won the NFC despite a defense that allowed 26.6 per game. The Saints hired veteran defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to fix the problem, and I think it'll be remembered as one of the most pivotal moves of the NFL's offseason.

• Dallas -- There are no two ways around it: The Cowboys underachieved mightily in 2008 and became a dysfunctional team in the locker room in the second half of last season. But only one of Dallas' losses came against a losing team, and that was at St. Louis in its first game without injured starting quarterback Tony Romo sits to pee. Otherwise, the Cowboys lost to Pittsburgh, Arizona, Philly, Baltimore and the Giants -- the NFL's final four and its defending Super Bowl champion -- as well as to 8-8 Washington when the Redskins were rolling early.

Three reasons why the Cowboys will be better off in 2009 jump to mind: 1) Romo sits to pee doesn't have to sweat the T.O. drama any more, and that's going to help his head and his game; 2) explosive running back/return man Felix Jones should play more than six games this time around; 3) the Cowboys improved their porous secondary both at cornerback and safety in free agency and the draft.

• San Francisco -- The 49ers finished the season at 5-2 in their last seven games under interim head coach Mike Singletary, and that's almost always going to earn you chic-pick, team-on-the-rise status heading into the following season. But there is something about Singletary's old-school approach that seems to be exactly what the lackadaisical 49ers have lacked in recent years. He doesn't seem to suffer fools or sloppiness too well, and those are two things that have not been in short supply in San Francisco for a while now.

Whether or not the 49ers have enough quality quarterbacking to make their first playoff appearance since 2002 remains a question, but let's not lose sight of something here. The NFC West's past three champions have gone 9-7 (Arizona in 2008), 10-6 and 9-7 (Seattle in 2007 and 2006), so it's not going to take a quantum leap for San Francisco (7-9 last year) to scale that particular mountain.

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I beleive the 49ers may do it even if they don't win that division but the Saints are 50/50 and the Cowboys are laughable.

"Romo sits to pee will be better without a top receiver!" :D:dallasuck

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The 49ers and Bills? Not a chance IMO.

The 49ers have the worst QB in the division, and who knows what Crabtree is going to be able to do. I can see them as one of the worst teams in the league next year.

And the Bills? That's pretty laughable to me. I don't know what people see in Trent Edwards, and they lost their starting left tackle to boot. Plus, does anyone really think the 36 year old TO is going to put them over the hump? Their are much better teams in the AFC that are going to compete for a wild card than the Bills(Houston, Cincy, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Baltimore, Miami).

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He must have missed Philly's thrashing of the pukes in the pukes' final game last year.

They'll have less talent this year and be just as predictable.

Less Talent? The only position I see a major downgrade at is Receiver.

Pac Man Jones .... So now you think he is good? :hysterical:

Zach Thomas ... Keith Brooking is a push.

A rock > Roy Williams at Safety

Tank Johnson .... bahahahahaha.

You can't honestly say Chris Canty is that much better then Igor Olshanky. The scout guys who watch every game ... they can say that. I guarantee as a Skin fan you may have seen Igor play two-three times max. I say Push.

Kyle Kosier is back who when started we won our games last year with him. Felix Jones is back. MBIII is healthy. Romo sits to pee no longer has a hurt finger. Flozell can finally move his left arm. Our special teams got a huge upgrade because we only 3 guys who wanted to play Special teams and had heart to do so. We got a new Special teams coach who is in their *** unlike Read.

We went 8-5 with Romo sits to pee last year including the 44-6 drubbing.

We went 1-2 w/o Romo sits to pee. We beat a Bucs team, got stomped by St.Louis and lost to New York.

The only one of our losses to a losing team was to St.Louis.

I am not sitting here and claiming Super Bowl ... but I will say we can go 9-7 10-6 and make it to the playoffs.

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You can't honestly say Chris Canty is that much better then Igor Olshanky. The scout guys who watch every game ... they can say that. I guarantee as a Skin fan you may have seen Igor play two-three times max. I say Push.

TN,

You fail to recognize that once it's clear that the specific player will no longer be a Cowboy, and when he ultimately is an ex-Cowboy, said player immediately become All-Pro caliber and was the only reason Dallas had any success to begin with.

Get with it man! What rock you been under? ;)

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I think the Saints are gonna make the NFC Championship game and maybe the superbowl. They had one of the best offenses last year even when Bush was injured and now the have one of the best D Coordinators in the league (Imo) in gregg williams and we know how he can take medicore talent and make a top 10 defense out of it.

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You can't honestly say Chris Canty is that much better then Igor Olshanky. The scout guys who watch every game ... they can say that. I guarantee as a Skin fan you may have seen Igor play two-three times max. I say Push.

How many times have you seen Olshansky play? How can you honestly say it's a push?
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Less Talent? The only position I see a major downgrade at is Receiver.

Receiver, defensive line and uh, yes, secondary.

You still have running-back-by-committee in which, the slow-footed MB is the starter.

Who is going to be afraid of that receiving corps? I mean really.

The o-line was pathetic at the end of the year last year, and Flo will make you groan before it's over.

And, then there's Romo sits to pee...but that's for another thread.

:rotflmao:

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TN,

You fail to recognize that once it's clear that the specific player will no longer be a Cowboy, and when he ultimately is an ex-Cowboy, said player immediately become All-Pro caliber and was the only reason Dallas had any success to begin with.

Get with it man! What rock you been under? ;)

I've always like Ellis and Witten.

Sort of puts a hole in your theory.

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How many times have you seen Olshansky play? How can you honestly say it's a push?

I can't judge Igor. But I have watched every snap of Canty's career and he was nothing special in the 3-4. Most 3-4 DE's in this scheme don't tear it up due to the scheme. In the 4-3 he should be solid.

So I can't say Canty is better then Igor.

Stats are similar and I have watched Chris play.

Therefore push.

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Receiver, defensive line and uh, yes, secondary.

You still have running-back-by-committee in which, the slow-footed MB is the starter.

Who is going to be afraid of that receiving corps? I mean really.

The o-line was pathetic at the end of the year last year, and Flo will make you groan before it's over.

And, then there's Romo sits to pee...but that's for another thread.

:rotflmao:

D-Line still has the same players minus Canty. Canty is not exactly Ware or Haynesworth.

When the Giants used RB by committee didn't seem to fair to bad did it?

Brady did it with less.

And we get Kosier back. Say what you want, but when he was there the O-Line played a lot better.

Comparing Tony Romo sits to pee's first two years to Peyton Mannings' first three years in the league ...

Manning had 4 more touchdowns

Manning had 12 more interceptions

Manning had 1,725 more yards

Manning had a 4% lower completion percentage

Manning had a 10 point lower passer rating

Manning had ZERO more playoff victories.

So he can't be that bad can he?

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I watched Igor out here in San Diego and he benefits from being able to not be doubled. Ware is naturally going to get the double but I dont know if Igor is going to do well or not. Personally I never liked the guy and have always thought he was a joke but that could also just be because I hate Charger fans and their complete lack of football knowledge.

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Comparing Tony Romo sits to pee's first two years to Peyton Mannings' first three years in the league ...

Manning had 4 more touchdowns

Manning had 12 more interceptions

Manning had 1,725 more yards

Manning had a 4% lower completion percentage

Manning had a 10 point lower passer rating

Manning had ZERO more playoff victories.

So he can't be that bad can he?

That's not a fair comparison. A fourth year player should be light years ahead of a rookie. It's like statistically comparing Aaron Rodgers' first year starting to Eli's or Big Ben's to determine who the better player is.
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I beleive the 49ers may do it even if they don't win that division but the Saints are 50/50 and the Cowboys are laughable.

"Romo sits to pee will be better without a top receiver!" :D:dallasuck

That division was won by a 9-7 team last year. If you don't get the highest record in the West (either conference) you just aren't going to playoffs.

I believe the Bengals will make a nice turn for the better this year as well

That's possible; not probable, but possible. Even so, "better" is not going to be good enough beat the Steelers for the divisional title, and it most likely will not be able to beat the Ravens for a wildcard slot.

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I can't judge Igor. But I have watched every snap of Canty's career and he was nothing special in the 3-4. Most 3-4 DE's in this scheme don't tear it up due to the scheme. In the 4-3 he should be solid.

So I can't say Canty is better then Igor.

Stats are similar and I have watched Chris play.

Therefore push.

Actually, Ratliff has been a beast as a 3-4 D-lineman. Canty, you may know better than me, but he's always been a pain in the butt to play against. Tough to run against. I don't think 2008 was his best year, but I'd guess he can play better than he did last year.

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