Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Many draftniks invariably justify their personal favorite selections by dogmatic adherence to the principle that you must draft to fill a need. To me, the Draft is a huge crap shoot and the only way to reduce risk is to pick so-called "luxury picks" in every round. A "luxury pick" is defined as a selection without regard to need whatsoever. Here is my choice for filling out the Skins 2009 Draft using only "luxury picks:" 1. Knowshon Moreno -- Skins are deep at RB and these guys are a commodity. But Moreno is so dangerous in space he can change a game in an instant. He will be the next "LT." 3. Johhny Knox -- I know ... the last thing the Skins need is another WR. However this guy has world class speed to go along with his surprisingly good hands and decent size. He can return kicks and will burn you when you least expect it. Another game changer. 5. Graham Harrell -- What? Another QB? A Colt clone? Yea ... I know ... but you never have enough of these guys ... he has the tools and the smarts with great upside ... bury him for a year or two ... then reap the whirlwind. 6. Derek Pegues -- Scrappy nickle corner with some baggage. But he is versatile and an excellent kick returner. 7. Cedric Dockery -- Could always use some depth on the OL. Hmmm ... that name seems familiar. There it is Kiperites ... Go at it (me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 What? Another QB? A Colt clone? Yea ... I know ... but you never have enough of these guys ... he has the tools and the smarts with great upside ... bury him for a year or two ... then reap the whirlwind. Ah, this speaks volumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dah-Dee Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Dear Gregpeck99 -- This is who we'll be drafting this year: 1: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC 3: Pat White, QB, W. Va. 5: Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State 6: Mike Reilly, QB, Cent. Wash. 7: Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech Sincerely, Danny S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Dear Gregpeck99 -- This is who we'll be drafting this year:1: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC 3: Pat White, QB, W. Va. 5: Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State 6: Mike Reilly, QB, Cent. Wash. 7: Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech Sincerely, Danny S. Don't laugh Danny ... you'r thinking outside the box ... just like me. Everyone of these guys has a bright future in the NFL. Good choices ... you lose points only for lacking diversity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightbird Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 I wouldn't consider a CB in the 6th to be a luxury. We're one injury away from starting Fred Smoot with Justin Tryon at nickel. In fact, unless Tryon has dramatically improved, I think we really have to draft a corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 I wouldn't consider a CB in the 6th to be a luxury.We're one injury away from starting Fred Smoot with Justin Tryon at nickel. In fact, unless Tryon has dramatically improved, I think we really have to draft a corner. Pegues is a luxury beacuse of his versatility as a kick returner and special teamer ... he will never be starting corner ... but can do well in the nickle and dime and play safety in a pinch. Has a mean straek and shined in Senior Bowl. You are stuck in the need mode ... I'm only collecting butterflies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinzfan72 Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Many draftniks invariably justify their personal favorite selections by dogmatic adherence to the principle that you must draft to fill a need. To me, the Draft is a huge crap shoot and the only way to reduce risk is to pick so-called "luxury picks" in every round. A "luxury pick" is defined as a selection without regard to need whatsoever. Here is my choice for filling out the Skins 2009 Draft using only "luxury picks:"1. Knowshon Moreno -- Skins are deep at RB and these guys are a commodity. But Moreno is so dangerous in space he can change a game in an instant. He will be the next "LT" :wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel This is my prediction as well. All the smokescreens to drop him to 13. What a steal this would be. Although I really don't believe we are deep in this position. We have CP, Betts I think has been on the bench to long. Time to trade him out and have a real 1-2 punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 :wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowel:wavetowelThis is my prediction as well. All the smokescreens to drop him to 13. What a steal this would be. Although I really don't believe we are deep in this position. We have CP, Betts I think has been on the bench to long. Time to trade him out and have a real 1-2 punch. I agree that Portis-Moreno would be devastating combo. It might even save Campbell's career with Skins. If we don't get Sanchez ... Moreno is my Plan B. Now that is luxury! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpSkin Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Don't laugh Danny ... you'r thinking outside the box ... just like me. Everyone of these guys has a bright future in the NFL. Good choices ... you lose points only for lacking diversity. Whoa, whoa... why lose points because of that? Remember, you said drafting "without regard to need whatsoever" is the best way to reduce risk. Therefore, even if you have 7 legitimate prospects at the QB position, you should still draft an 8th if he is the BPA. But, the fact is, Dah-Dee's post is an over-the-top demonstration of the flaw in the BPA or luxury pick philosophy. Maybe you reduce the risk of drafting someone who never becomes a solid to star player in the NFL, but you increase the risk of that player not playing for your team (or if he does play for your team, it could be at the expense of another pretty good player). The reason being limited roster spots, and a limited number of any one position that can actually contribute to your team. A TE might be the best available player, but if he is always on the bench for every year of his rookie contract because there is good young talent in front of him... or even if he cracks the starting lineup only to provide a modest upgrade to an already sound position, then he hasn't increased the power of your team very much (if at all). On the other hand, a DE who is only a solid player might increase the power of your team a lot if your current crop of DE's is just terrible. You can't just look at a prospect's abilities in a box. You also have to consider what the upgrade is to your team even if the prospect is everything you hoped for... because if that prospect's playing time comes at the expense of an already very good player currently on your roster, you haven't improved your team very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbleedBnG83 Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Heywood-Bey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heliKCx17 Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Luxury pick at wr: Ramses barden...6'6" and 4.45 speed along with huge and consistant production...HUGE steal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Whoa, whoa... why lose points because of that? Remember, you said drafting "without regard to need whatsoever" is the best way to reduce risk. Therefore, even if you have 7 legitimate prospects at the QB position, you should still draft an 8th if he is the BPA.But, the fact is, Dah-Dee's post is an over-the-top demonstration of the flaw in the BPA or luxury pick philosophy. Do not suggest "luxury formula" is way to put together and field a team ... merely another way to manage risk in Drfating ... there are practical limitations even to this approach ... and of one of those restraints is you shouldn't overstock a single position with too many players for the sake of "avoiding any need whatsoever." Some "needs" can never be avoided ... still gotta field a team and play the game ... hard to do with 7 or 8 QBs on the roster no matter how luxurious that may seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Heywood-Bey Entitled to your opinion ... but I think this guy is gonna wash out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Luxury pick at wr: Ramses barden...6'6" and 4.45 speed along with huge and consistant production...HUGE steal! Excellent! Would help in the red zone ... But might get MK miffed ... hey thats what luxury is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeRedskins Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 5. Graham Harrell -- What? Another QB? A Colt clone? Yea ... I know ... but you never have enough of these guys ... he has the tools and the smarts with great upside ... bury him for a year or two ... then reap the whirlwind. You can never have enough system QBs that have terrible mechanics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commander Adama Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 3. Johhny Knox -- I know ... the last thing the Skins need is another WR. However this guy has world class speed to go along with his surprisingly good hands and decent size. He can return kicks and will burn you when you least expect it. Another game changer. I really didn't like his movie Dukes of Hazard. Seriously though, I do like your first pick, and I totally agree you draft BPA rather than need. That being said, whoever is the BPA at 13 is who I am a fan of. Curry, Orakpo, Knowshon, Smith, etc. I do not care, as long as it is the best player available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpSkin Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Do not suggest "luxury formula" is way to put together and field a team ... merely another way to manage risk in Drfating ... there are practical limitations even to this approach ... and of one of those restraints is you shouldn't overstock a single position with too many players for the sake of "avoiding any need whatsoever." Some "needs" can never be avoided ... still gotta field a team and play the game ... hard to do with 7 or 8 QBs on the roster no matter how luxurious that may seem. Yes, but my point is that the absurdity of the 7 QB example is just an example pushing to the extreme the mild absurdity of ignoring need and truly using the BPA approach. You have to consider what a prospect's VALUE ADDED is. Looking just at a prospect's value as a football player in general is thinking in a box and does not reduce the risk... it just shifts the risk. The goal when drafting a player should be to maximize the long term value added to the TEAM... not to minimize the risk that said player ever makes it as a good-to-great player in the league. Who cares if that player becomes great for another team because you had to get rid of him after his rookie contract due to never cracking your starting lineup because you had enough talent there already. And moreover, if he does crack the starting lineup only because he is mildly better than another really good player on your roster who is in turn pushed to the bench (or cut)... then you haven't actually improved the TEAM much (even though the draft pick turned into a great player capable of unseating the starting position of another great player). GM's should be judged by how much they improve the TEAM with their player acquisition, not by how many of their draft picks turn into great players. These can actually be very different measures, and only one of them is actually important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 You can never have enough system QBs that have terrible mechanics? There is a reason David Klingler was a star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 I really didn't like his movie Dukes of Hazard. Curry, Orakpo, Knowshon, Smith, etc. I do not care, as long as it is the best player available. Realistically, Moreno should be avaialble at 13 ... the others though should be long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 GM's should be judged by how much they improve the TEAM with their player acquisition, not by how many of their draft picks turn into great players. These can actually be very different measures, and only one of them is actually important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 GM's should be judged by how much they improve the TEAM with their player acquisition, not by how many of their draft picks turn into great players. These can actually be very different measures, and only one of them is actually important. Agree pure BPA is not a panacea. Most GMs admit they blend BPA with need, that the Draft is primarily for depth and FA must be used as well to build a competitive team or keep one competitive. The trick of course is what are the appropriate proportions among these components. That in turn is influenced by what your present roster strengths and weaknesses are. My "luxury pick" scenario aims to question the pure need filling function that many fans resort to in Drafting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpSkin Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 My "luxury pick" scenario aims to question the pure need filling function that many fans resort to in Drafting. I agree... the approach should not be pure need filling anymore than it should be pure BPA. It is all about value-added. As for Knowshon... I like him as a prospect, but I feel this is a case where he just does not add enough value to this team. I think timing needs to be considered here as well. Moreno is not going to come in and start right away, and probably won't even start for a few years with Portis on the roster -- and even if he did (as impressive as that would be), it would be at the expense of playing an already great player in Portis. Moreover, he probably would not even unseat Betts this first year as the backup because of Betts' experience in the Skins' pass pro and schemes. However, a first round prospect at ORT, LDE, or SLB would almost surely start right away and be a pretty big upgrade right away even if they are a slightly worse prospect than Moreno. There will be stud RB prospects in future drafts as well... but the best value-added for the Skins right now is at one of the aforementioned positions (ORT, LDE, or SLB)... and unless the talent gap between a prospect available at 13 for one of these 3 positions and the BPA at some other position is unrealistically large (which it won't be), the proper approach would be to take the best prospect available at ORT, LDE, or SLB. I think this is just a case where we need to be patient. If you stick to a solid plan of maximizing value-added with your player acquisition, you will eventually get to the point where you can seriously consider some pure luxury picks. But right now, the chance to make huge and sudden improvements to this team at positions of glaring need is too huge to pass up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 As for Knowshon... I like him as a prospect, but I feel this is a case where he just does not add enough value to this team. I think timing needs to be considered here as well. Moreno is not going to come in and start right away Precisely why Moreno is a luxurious pick. (PS: I believe Portis' days are numbered, but that is another subject). I view picks at ORT, SLB and DE as fullfilling needs. The hypothetical posits anti-need picks. I do not question that on occassion a "need pick" adds value, but all too frequently you end up with a "reach" or a "project" or a "wash out." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeannyTayTay21 Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Yes, but my point is that the absurdity of the 7 QB example is just an example pushing to the extreme the mild absurdity of ignoring need and truly using the BPA approach. You have to consider what a prospect's VALUE ADDED is. Looking just at a prospect's value as a football player in general is thinking in a box and does not reduce the risk... it just shifts the risk. The goal when drafting a player should be to maximize the long term value added to the TEAM... not to minimize the risk that said player ever makes it as a good-to-great player in the league. Who cares if that player becomes great for another team because you had to get rid of him after his rookie contract due to never cracking your starting lineup because you had enough talent there already. And moreover, if he does crack the starting lineup only because he is mildly better than another really good player on your roster who is in turn pushed to the bench (or cut)... then you haven't actually improved the TEAM much (even though the draft pick turned into a great player capable of unseating the starting position of another great player).GM's should be judged by how much they improve the TEAM with their player acquisition, not by how many of their draft picks turn into great players. These can actually be very different measures, and only one of them is actually important. Well put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinSince87 Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 OLB Willie Williams and OLB Jason Williams and my draft is a complete success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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