turbodiesel#44 Posted April 1, 2009 Share Posted April 1, 2009 'push'?? Tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted April 1, 2009 Share Posted April 1, 2009 When you give reasoning similar to your reasoning on how it's okay to stay on 15 because it's about an even chance based on pure probabilities, which is pretty much factually wrong, you're wrong. dude you asked my opinion on how I'd play a hand. The way I see it there are 7 chances to bust and 6 chances to still win. So the question of hit or not is not a given. I'm no expert in blackjack, but I still don't get the analogy. Even if you have a relationship between blackjack and football, its probably a flawed connection because blackjack is a solved game (mathemarically), so guys know strategies to win these games. Right now the NFL draft strategies are closer to Travelling SalesPerson (TSP) strategies, which is an NP-complete problem (that means its a really hard problem) because nobody's found a strategy that always works on them than they are to blackjack. But its cool for you to think yourself an expert in everything football. Holla at me when you get that next coach/gm paycheck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shilsu Posted April 1, 2009 Share Posted April 1, 2009 dude you asked my opinion on how I'd play a hand. The way I see it there are 7 chances to bust and 6 chances to still win. So the question of hit or not is not a given. I'm no expert in blackjack, but I still don't get the analogy. Even if you have a relationship between blackjack and football, its probably a flawed connection because blackjack is a solved game (mathemarically), so guys know strategies to win these games. Right now the NFL draft strategies are closer to Travelling SalesPerson (TSP) strategies, which is an NP-complete problem (that means its a really hard problem) because nobody's found a strategy that always works on them than they are to blackjack. But its cool for you to think yourself an expert in everything football. Holla at me when you get that next coach/gm paycheck. First of all, even if there was a 50% chance of busting on 15, if a dealer shows a 10, there's about a 70% chance that he will end up with a winning hand should you choose to stay, 77% chance if you include his chance of having a blackjack which means you wouldn't even get the choice to hit or stay. The only thing you're arguing is that there's a 50% chance of busting. You're looking at the chance of busting instead of the chance of winning, and that is exactly why you're wrong. Second, the NFL may not be an exact science, but there is a science to it. And if you consistently make stupid decisions like the Redskins do, such as ignoring other players to draft Fred Davis, trading 3rd and 4th rounders for TJ Duckett, and so on, you're making decisions against probabilities. Third, the way you keep defending the ability to stay on 15 is similar to how you keep making dumb rationalizations about various topics concerning the Redskins, most recently of which is your flawed logic on why we didn't draft Jason Jones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted April 1, 2009 Share Posted April 1, 2009 First of all, even if there was a 50% chance of busting on 15, if a dealer shows a 10, there's about a 70% chance that he will end up with a winning hand should you choose to stay, 77% chance if you include his chance of having a blackjack which means you wouldn't even get the choice to hit or stay. The only thing you're arguing is that there's a 50% chance of busting. You're looking at the chance of busting instead of the chance of winning, and that is exactly why you're wrong. the scenario you gave me was us both having 15. Second, the NFL may not be an exact science, but there is a science to it. And if you consistently make stupid decisions like the Redskins do, such as ignoring other players to draft Fred Davis, trading 3rd and 4th rounders for TJ Duckett, and so on, you're making decisions against probabilities. says you. I'd like to see your proof of the existence of this science. There are many theories on how to build a winning team, and many different ones have worked - including the theory of bringing in free agents (but maybe you don't remember the 1980s). I'm not saying any of these is my theory, but Its nice to know that you're such an expert on these matters. The best logic you can come up with is a broken analogy that says that winning the super bowl in the NFL is as easy as winning a hand of blackjack. I guess thats why you're getting so many offers to work in the NFL. Third, the way you keep defending the ability to stay on 15 is similar to how you keep making dumb rationalizations about various topics concerning the Redskins, most recently of which is your flawed logic why we didn't draft Jason Jones. I do this to humor myself. I actually think its funny to see you get so excited about what others write on a message board. So if all I've got to do is come up with a rational argument that shoots down your theory, I'll gladly do it. And what makes me love it more is the fact that rationality is like your kryptonite. You never respond to logic. You always respond with personal insults and try to go back 6 months in posting history to avoid the argument at hand. Its pretty funny to watch you squirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turbodiesel#44 Posted April 1, 2009 Share Posted April 1, 2009 Since my defense of Vinny seems to have fallen on deaf ears and there is unanimous panning of the guys football skills on this thread, here is a handy table for BJ players... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shilsu Posted April 1, 2009 Share Posted April 1, 2009 the scenario you gave me was us both having 15. This is exactly what I'm talking about. You act as if you have authority or knowledge when you don't even have a clue. Go reread the scenario. The scenario is that you and I have a 15 and the dealer shows a 10. Do you play blackjack versus the other players on the table? No, so what is your point? You have no point. says you. I'd like to see your proof of the existence of this science. There are many theories on how to build a winning team, and many different ones have worked - including the theory of bringing in free agents (but maybe you don't remember the 1980s). I'm not saying any of these is my theory, but Its nice to know that you're such an expert on these matters. The best logic you can come up with is a broken analogy that says that winning the super bowl in the NFL is as easy as winning a hand of blackjack. I guess thats why you're getting so many offers to work in the NFL. So I guess it's just random luck how certain teams are consistently successful and some teams are consistently failures. Yup, more dumb logic from you. And what is your point about working in the NFL? Oh, no point there again. I do this to humor myself. I actually think its funny to see you get so excited about what others write on a message board. So if all I've got to do is come up with a rational argument that shoots down your theory, I'll gladly do it. And what makes me love it more is the fact that rationality is like your kryptonite. You never respond to logic. You always respond with personal insults and try to go back 6 months in posting history to avoid the argument at hand. Its pretty funny to watch you squirm. Ummm, yeah. You accuse me of never responding to logic while you sit there talking about why you would stay on 15. If you really think you are watching me squirm, your mind is suffering from a disturbing combination of delusions and denial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GIBBS LIVES Posted April 2, 2009 Author Share Posted April 2, 2009 Why am I seeing threads of people question Mike Shanahan's GM skills? We've sat here for most of a decade and have been subjected to the worse GM in football...Cerrato/Snyder!! Anything would be an improvement over them. Shanahan isn't drafting WR's with degenerative knees!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redskins:Victory_or_Death Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Shanahan isn't drafting WR's with degenerative knees!!You're like a comedian with one line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 The Redskins have been just as successful as the Dallas Cowboys.. put that in your pipe and smoke it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GIBBS LIVES Posted April 2, 2009 Author Share Posted April 2, 2009 You're like a comedian with one line. Okay..here's a new line for you. Shanahan isn't giving money away to washed up, over the hill DE's like Jason Taylor who was obviously only here to get a free pay day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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