About Sticking to Plans

[Ernie5]

Agreed. The problem is I can't remember when this team had a 'solid' draft. At best, last years draft can be called 'incomplete'.

Last year's draft for most teams gets an 'incomplete.' I actually think the 2006 draft was a solid draft: McIntosh, Montgomery, Doughty, and Golston. Solid. Not amazing, but solid.

[Ernie5]

If we had to re-do. How about Mike Pollak, Deshaun Jackson and try trading back again?

Would like Pollak. No thanks on Jackson.

[Ernie5]

People here extolling the virtues of DeSean Jackson -- look at Philly 2008 draft. Also an incomplete. One productive player and lots of question marks. Nothing at wrong with it at all, but who knows how it'll look in the long run?

2 Trevor Laws Notre Dame

2 DeSean Jackson California

3 Bryan Smith McNeese State

4 Mike McGlynn Pittsburgh

4 Quintin Demps Texas-El Paso

4 Jack Ikegwuonu Wisconsin

6 Mike Gibson California

6 Joe Mays North Dakota State

6 Andy Studebaker Wheaton

7 King Dunlap Auburn

[elkabong82]

If we had to re-do. How about Mike Pollak, Deshaun Jackson and try trading back again?

Because Jackson isn't the physical, big WR we need for the WCO, and because Pollack was drafted lower than any of our 2nd round picks, meaning he would have been a big reach.

[seantaylor=god]

Well, if you'd care to point out who those players actually are, instead of just listing positions that are needs now, I'd be all ears. Except you can't because there were only 2 OL taken in the 2nd round. One was Chilo Rachal, who NOBODY had graded higher than Devin Thomas, and was even considered a reach that high in the 2nd round.

The reports leading up to the draft said we brought in and worked out DE Phillip Merling, and DT Trevor Laws. Merling was taken by Miami two picks in front of us. If you think we should have stayed in the 1st round to get Merling, rather than trade down, I'll argue with you all day on that, because the potential of 3 2nd rounders is greater than that of 1 low 1st rounder. We take Devin Thomas, and then 1 pick before our next pick in the 2nd round the Eagles take Laws. There are no OL graded high at this point, the next one wasn't even taken until near the end of the 2nd round. Groves and Calias Campbell are avilable. Groves didn't start any games, and really the only thing of note he had was 2.5 sacks. I'm sure ES would have been real happy with that kind of production. Besides, Groves was projected as a tweener meant more for a 3-4 scheme. Calais had his own issues, and we had a coach who had worked with him before, and we opted to pass. Calais didn't do much of anything this season either, so ES likely would have been complaining about the lack of production of either of those 2 just as they are with our 2 WRs and TE.

The reason we drafted the way we did is because those were the players the team felt was best for us. There were no OL or DL worth the picks or available that the team liked. The 2 guys the team looked at for DL were taken right before we could pick. Sure the Eagles got a WR and DT, but the DT is one we were looking at as well, and the WR is smallish and nobody on ES wanted a WR under 6 feet for the WCO. Jackson was also forced into his role because of injuries to other WRs.

Things don't look so simple when you put them into the context of their time, rather than looking back in hindsight.

Great, Great post. While I am definitely dissapointed in our WRs, we knew Thomas was a bit of a project with huge upside (JUCO transfer, not a lot of experience in D1, etc.) I'm hoping Kelly can heal and will be on the field because I think he has some real potential and will be ready to play sooner than Thomas.

[88Comrade2000]

Plan? The Skins don't really have a plan. Most of the moves last year was more reactionary than planning. The only plan was drafting 3 bums so far with our second round picks.

The Skins have always been reactionary and I don't expect that to change. We will lose player in training camp and then give away our picks in 2010. the player will then hardly contribute.

[@DCGoldPants]

People here extolling the virtues of DeSean Jackson -- look at Philly 2008 draft. Also an incomplete. One productive player and lots of question marks. Nothing at wrong with it at all, but who knows how it'll look in the long run?

2 Trevor Laws Notre Dame

2 DeSean Jackson California

3 Bryan Smith McNeese State

4 Mike McGlynn Pittsburgh

4 Quintin Demps Texas-El Paso

4 Jack Ikegwuonu Wisconsin

6 Mike Gibson California

6 Joe Mays North Dakota State

6 Andy Studebaker Wheaton

7 King Dunlap Auburn

Philly doesn't draft for right now. But they do it well and have been. They also make it a tad further than us....and ahve been. Dollars to doughnuts says those picks on average outperform ours over the next 5+ years.

[Oldfan]

Plan? The Skins don't really have a plan. Most of the moves last year was more reactionary than planning. The only plan was drafting 3 bums so far with our second round picks.

The Skins have always been reactionary and I don't expect that to change. We will lose player in training camp and then give away our picks in 2010. the player will then hardly contribute.

I'll spot you the Jason Taylor trade was a bad move. Were you among the 11% polled in this forum who opposed the trade when it happened?

Aside from that one, will you list the bad moves made by Vinny since January, 2007? There was a shift in our plans after the sad 2006 season so older moves are not relevant to the current plan.

[Going Commando]

How far back? Only 1 out of 5 picks in '07 made any contribution either. That makes 2 of the last 15 picks.

You are judging success based on whether or not they became a starter I assume.

I agree 2007 was not a good draft overall, but again we had 1 first day pick and it was well spent. And H.B. Blades might still become a contributor.

And if you go back a year before that, 2006 wasn't a bad year given that we had 6 picks and all but one were round 5 or later. We got 4 players from that class who started at some point.

The general consensus among the professionals is that it takes 3 seasons to properly evaluate a draft class, it's far too early to make any strong judgments about this draft. Besides, you are judging it negatively based not on the poor play of the rookies, but because the rookies didn't really play. We don't have any idea one way or the other how most of them will turn out because we have nothing to evaluate.

EDIT:

Your post got me curious, so I went back and looked and discovered that Washington's current roster contains only 21 players that they have drafted in this decade, with the vast majority coming from the past 3 drafts.

Here's a breakdown by year

2008: 9 of 10 (Thomas, Davis, Kelly, Rinehart, Tryon, Moore, Brennan, Jackson, Horton)

2007: 2 of 5 (Landry, Blades)

2006: 3 of 6 (McIntosh, Montgomery, Golston, Not sure if Doughty still is)

2005: 2 of 6 picks (Campbell and Rogers)

2004: 1 of 4 picks* (Cooley, one of the picks was Sean Taylor)

2003: 0 of 3 picks (This was also the year we traded a 1st for Coles)

2002: 2 of 9 picks (Betts and Cartwright)

2001: 1 of 5 (Smoot)

2000: 1 of 8 (Samuels)

Now as you can see from that breakdown, the 5 drafts from 2000 to 2004 were awful, giving us only 5 players on our current 53 man roster. This is where the dearth in talent on the roster comes from. The past four drafts or so haven't been that bad considering we had so few day one picks. Considering the fact that we've had 4 coaching changes in that span accounts for a lot of the turnover.

I don't know how much input Cerrato has had on the drafts prior to last years, but most people claim that this past one was his first real class. Blame his many predecessors if you want to figure out who is responsible for our jumbled, messy roster today.

Given our cap situation today, mostly, I think this shows that free agency is a poor tool to build a roster with. Its best used in a complimentary form to the draft. If we had drafted better and traded less picks between 2000 and 2004, we wouldn't be stuck with a roster full of Randle Els Casey Rabachs and Marcus Washingtons, where we enjoy only a couple of seasons of moderate productivity at high prices.

[Oldfan]

Philly doesn't draft for right now. But they do it well and have been. They also make it a tad further than us....and ahve been. Dollars to doughnuts says those picks on average outperform ours over the next 5+ years.

They kept their draft picks. We traded ours away. Our plan was dumb. But we aren't on that plan anymore. So, on what basis have you decided that their picks, as a percentage of hits, will be better than ours?

[ttr77]

Besides, you are judging it negatively based not on the poor play of the rookies, but because the rookies didn't really play. We don't have any idea one way or the other how most of them will turn out because we have nothing to evaluate.

You don't think that they would have made it on the field had they shown something? This team was struggling to score and was begging for someone to step up.

And again, I am not judging them negatively. But I keep reading how it is a given that they will improve and make a huge impact next year. All I am saying is that it is not a given. How many second round picks become successful? 20%? 30%? It's a crapshoot...and anyone stating with any certainty that they will make a huge impact next season is using nothing more than wishful thinking.

[88Comrade2000]

I'll spot you the Jason Taylor trade was a bad move. Were you among the 11% polled in this forum who opposed the trade when it happened?

Aside from that one, will you list the bad moves made by Vinny since January, 2007? There was a shift in our plans after the sad 2006 season so older moves are not relevant to the current plan.

There is no plan. Each year the Skins change what they want to do. This has been the hallmark of the Snyder ownership from day one.

I don't expect much this offseason not because Snyder doesn't want to but because finances are tight this offseason; otherwise it would probably be a huge spending spree this offseason.

[talk show host]

There is no plan. Each year the Skins change what they want to do. This has been the hallmark of the Snyder ownership from day one.

I don't expect much this offseason not because Snyder doesn't want to but because finances are tight this offseason; otherwise it would probably be a huge spending spree this offseason.

I agree. The OP must be losing his mind or something. Theres nothing this team has done (or is doing) to show it is sticking with ANY "plan," let alone a good one.

The OP speaks of how he's glad the team is building through the draft and not trading picks for players like we did for Jason Taylor....

did the OP leap in time to 2012 or something? In our very last offseason, we traded THREE picks for two players. And both of those players turned out to be busts. So what makes the OP think we've moved on?

As far as drafting 10 players, the team certainly did not draft 10 good players. Atleast 3 of them only made the roster because of a PR decision to have all the rookies make the roster. The only one we've let go of is the punter... but dont worry, there will be more. Most mocks had Rinehart going in rounds 6-7 and several had him as an undrafted free agent. but we picked him in the 3rd round? Yes, we needed to draft a guard, but we drafted a dud, and no 1 year later we know why no one else had him ranked nearly that high. If anything, this team has shown it doesnt have qualified people making personnel and management decisions.

This team has no solid plan and it wont as long as Dan Snyder is meddling and Vinny Cerrato is GM.

[Oldfan]

...But I keep reading how it is a given that they will improve and make a huge impact next year. ..and anyone stating with any certainty that they will make a huge impact next season is using nothing more than wishful thinking

Will you quote the poster who claimed a "huge impact" was a given?

This was my response to your first attempt to debate the point:

Nothing is assumed to be "automatic." However, you have a ton of evidence proving that more experience will probably result in better execution.

[ttr77]

Will you quote the poster who claimed a "huge impact" was a given?

This was my response to your first attempt to debate the point:

Nothing is assumed to be "automatic." However, you have a ton of evidence proving that more experience will probably result in better execution.

Ok, perhaps HUGE did not have to be included in there, but the statement works the same without that adjective. And if you haven't read something along these lines multiple times on this message board, then your thread selection has been very limited.

[Oldfan]

I agree. The OP must be losing his mind or something. Theres nothing this team has done (or is doing) to show it is sticking with ANY "plan," let alone a good one.

The poster you quoted and agreed with ducked my questions. How about your responses to the same questions?

I'll spot you the Jason Taylor trade was a bad move. Were you among the 11% polled in this forum who opposed the trade when it happened?

Aside from that one, will you list the bad moves made by Vinny since January, 2007? There was a shift in our plans after the sad 2006 season so older moves are not relevant to the current plan.

[Oldfan]

Ok, perhaps HUGE did not have to be included in there, but the statement works the same without that adjective. And if you haven't read something along these lines multiple times on this message board, then your thread selection has been very limited.

I'm not responsible for the statements made by others.

The 2008 rookies, taken as a group, should make a greater contribution -- as should the entire offense with a year of experience in Zorn's scheme under their belts. Jim Zorn should also improve on his rookie year experience in coaching them.

Those statements are realistic based on our knowledge of the value of experience in any human endeavor.

Their improvement doesn't guarantee we will win more games because there are other important factors in play, but the expected improvement is a positive factor supporting optimism.

[TheLongshot]

Philly doesn't draft for right now. But they do it well and have been. They also make it a tad further than us....and ahve been. Dollars to doughnuts says those picks on average outperform ours over the next 5+ years.

We didn't really draft for right now either. You think Devin Thomas was a pick for right now? I don't. I saw it for what it was, a guy who needed some work but had huge upside. Just about everyone on that list wasn't expected to contribute immediately.

As for Philly's draft, they typically collect a lot of draft picks, but they have a relatively high percentage of washouts as well. Look at their OL picks from the past few years.

[ttr77]

I'm not responsible for the statements made by others.

I didn't say that it was you that said it.

The 2008 rookies, taken as a group, should make a greater contribution -- as should the entire offense with a year of experience in Zorn's scheme under their belts. Jim Zorn should also improve on his rookie year experience in coaching them.

Again, there are probably just as many instances of players and coaches regressing in their second years. Being a year older or more experienced does not supersede a lack of skill or ability, if that is the case.

Their improvement doesn't guarantee we will win more games because there are other important factors in play, but the expected improvement is a positive factor supporting optimism.

As I stated in anther thread, your optimism is not contagious. I have the distinct feeling I've seen this movie before and I think it will turn out the same way.

[Oldfan]

Again, there are probably just as many instances of players and coaches regressing in their second years.

This statement denies what most would consider a basic truth about human nature: we learn from experience.

[ttr77]

This statement denies what most would consider a basic truth about human nature: we learn from experience.

Sure, but everyone else in the league has another year of experience as well. No one is stagnant. So in order for the Skins to take a step forward, they need to USE that experience better than anyone else. Whether this happens is anyone's guess.

[Oldfan]

Sure, but everyone else in the league has another year of experience as well.

No, they aren't all in the second year of a new offensive scheme and few have as many rookies from 2008 on their rosters. So, the two factors combine to put us well above the average NFL team in expected improvement due to the 2008 season experience.

If all other factors offset, we'd be guaranteed to win more games next year.

[TheLongshot]

Again, there are probably just as many instances of players and coaches regressing in their second years. Being a year older or more experienced does not supersede a lack of skill or ability, if that is the case.

I've been saying that it isn't nessicarily what you do in your first year, but what you do in your second year that matters. The first year is for getting your feet wet and analysing what you have on your team. It is how good that analysis of that first year that goes a long way to if you are going to be successful beyond that first year. As you say, there have been plenty of teams who have had good first seasons who flamed out afterwards. This is the test of Zorn and his staff.

As I stated in anther thread, your optimism is not contagious. I have the distinct feeling I've seen this movie before and I think it will turn out the same way.

I think it is post-traumatic stress syndrome myself.

[Ernie5]

Plan? The Skins don't really have a plan. Most of the moves last year was more reactionary than planning. The only plan was drafting 3 bums so far with our second round picks.

The Skins have always been reactionary and I don't expect that to change. We will lose player in training camp and then give away our picks in 2010. the player will then hardly contribute.

We made one reactionary move -- Jason Taylor. I think it was the wrong move; most people thought it was the right move. There's obviously a plan in place. You might not agree with it, but wake up.

[Ernie5]

Philly doesn't draft for right now. But they do it well and have been. They also make it a tad further than us....and ahve been. Dollars to doughnuts says those picks on average outperform ours over the next 5+ years.

How do we know their guys outperform ours in 5+ years?

The whole point of increasing your draft haul (10 picks) is to build for the future. That's what we did. Now people are slamming the front office for not getting guys who could produce immediately. That's all I'm saying. Give the Redskins draft an 'incomplete' -- fine, that's fair. You have to do the same for the Eagles (and most NFL teams).