About Sticking to Plans

[Ernie5]

There is no plan. Each year the Skins change what they want to do. This has been the hallmark of the Snyder ownership from day one.

I don't expect much this offseason not because Snyder doesn't want to but because finances are tight this offseason; otherwise it would probably be a huge spending spree this offseason.

How many large spending sprees have there been since Snyder bought the team? TWO. Get over it. That's a long disproved cliche.

[Ernie5]

Over the course of 4 years of Gibbs, you really think there was no plan? I firmly believe there was a plan -- one w/which I basically disagree: get veterans and don't trust young players. My hope is that that era is over, but it was a plan and the team stuck with it.

Just because a team doesn't do the exact same thing every off-season doesn't mean there is no long-term plan. Look at New England -- some off-seasons, they spend a lot on free agency and make a bunch of trades. Others they don't. You think they suddenly changed plans? Same with the Eagles. Some years they decide not to spend. Last off-season, they got involved in FA and signed (I think to their detriment) one of the higher-priced FAs out there (Samuel). Do you think the plan changed?

Not liking the plan and there not being a plan are two totally different things. We have had a plan in place since Gibbs came here. With Cerrato in charge, there is a change in plan. I see this as a good thing b/c under Gibbs the team had gotten older and not better.

[ttr77]

No, they aren't all in the second year of a new offensive scheme and few have as many rookies from 2008 on their rosters. So, the two factors combine to put us well above the average NFL team in expected improvement due to the 2008 season experience.

Atlanta, Miami, and Baltimore each had new coaches, new QBs, and new offenses yet each won 11 games. Experience makes them better, right? Shouldn't they each be shooting for an undefeated season in 2009? If one of them regresses and wins 8, does that change this whole theory?

[@DCGoldPants]

How do we know their guys outperform ours in 5+ years?

The whole point of increasing your draft haul (10 picks) is to build for the future. That's what we did. Now people are slamming the front office for not getting guys who could produce immediately. That's all I'm saying. Give the Redskins draft an 'incomplete' -- fine, that's fair. You have to do the same for the Eagles (and most NFL teams).

I don't know per say. All I have is history to base an estimation on. They draft well, they have guys ready to step in at a lot of positions. Based on what's happened since Mr. Snyder has owned the team. The Eagles front office is producing more quality players from their drafts that still play for the Eagles compared to what the Redskins are doing.

Maybe one of their players steps up earlier than expected (Jackson compared to Thomas, Kelly or Davis). Maybe not. But they load up in linemen a lot. They take a lot of blue collar guys. They add depth where they need it. Their stability even with the choking when it counts is a lot better than what we've become used to.

Its not like I am happy about this. When I cut that check every year for my tickets. I have my fingers and toes crossed that they finally figured it out. But the idea of Vinny running another offseason is scary. Especially when other quality franchises are adding more talent to their front offices.

[SkinsFTW]

No, that doesn't have to be the case. In a modular management plan, if Dan thinks that Vinny can't cut it, but Zorn is doing a good job, he can replace Vinny. His successor would have to agree to the same limited authority that Vinny has now.

I agree with this part of your post. So if somebody is doing a **** job, they can be replaced and we can still have the same basic plan of WCO or whatever and then hire somebody better. Like replace Vinny or Zorn with Holmgren or Gruden whoever when he and or Zorn inevitably fails. But if this is a real plan, a guy like Cowher wouldn't fit the plan, right?

It isn't good business for an owner to find a guy and delegate the responsibility entirely as Dan did with Joe. Dan needs to write a mission statement describing the goal and the broad strokes of a plan. Then he has to monitor the decisions made to make sure that his subordinates stay within the guidelines he set.

I think Dan should hire somebody else to do this. It's not good business for an owner to believe that he knows how to win in the NFL. Dan has less of a clue than many posters on this board. Yes, this is a fact, look a the results.

Example: If building a dynasty is the goal, then it follows that decisions should fit a long-term plan. It would then be Dan's job to make the final decision when his GM proposed a trade of picks for vets like Jason Taylor since such a deal would clearly not be a long-term move. However, Dan should not interfere with transactions that are aligned with his guidelines.

Again, totally disagree. Dan has no clue and a guy like Vinny appears at times to be no more than a sock puppet. When you say you expect them to have competent people devise a plan and then hire competent personnel to help realize that plan it doesn't mean the Dan and Vinny show.

You are basically saying that Vinny is the equivalent to Pioli in NE and that Dan Snyder is the overlord like Belichick is. Lets compare the 2,

Belichick, 5 rings(2 as DC), 1SB loss as DC, 3 Championship game losses (2 as DC) as a coach, was a huge part of building the Patriots current team. Has been a huge part of teams that have been to the postseason most years since the mid 80's. Everything he does wins, even the Browns made the playoffs once when he was there.

Dan Snyder has never coached anything. 3 trophies in case courtesy of Gibbs/Beathard/Cooke. Failed miserably on an anual basis using the New York Yankees Championship building technique while facing a salary cap. Deals out the big bucks every year to players who aren't worth the money to the team they are leaving.

I don't know man. I do like the plan idea though but it's stil the same old non football mind overseeing it all, with his fingers in everything. It would be a complete utter miracle if they somehow pull it off. :2cents:

[Oldfan]

ttr77 -- Atlanta, Miami, and Baltimore each had new coaches, new QBs, and new offenses yet each won 11 games. Experience makes them better, right? Shouldn't they each be shooting for an undefeated season in 2009? If one of them regresses and wins 8, does that change this whole theory?

You clipped off the part of my post which should have answered your question. I'll restore it for you:

No, they aren't all in the second year of a new offensive scheme and few have as many rookies from 2008 on their rosters. So, the two factors combine to put us well above the average NFL team in expected improvement due to the 2008 season experience.

If all other factors offset, we'd be guaranteed to win more games next year.

If all factors offset for those teams, they will improve. However, the Dolphins had a +17 turnover ratio and the Ravens defense had 34 takeaways. Both stats represent the highest in the NFL and neither stat has a history of consistency from year to year. So, those teams have a major negative facing them in 2009. I don't know Atlanta's situation.

[Oldfan]

Skins FTW -- But if this is a real plan, a guy like Cowher wouldn't fit the plan, right?

That's correct.

I think Dan should hire somebody else to do this. It's not good business for an owner to believe that he knows how to win in the NFL.

Dan has to do it. Bill Walsh is dead and Belichick probably can't be pried away from the Patriots. Who else would you trust to build your dynasty? Do you have someone in mind?

The problem with hiring someone to do it is that they will often make win-now decisions with job security as their top priority.

Dan's smart enough to do it. His problem has been that, like most NFL owners, he wants to win now. Building and maintaining a dynasty requires decision-making for the long term. Once the goal has been identified, the rest of the plan can evolve.

[zCommander]

Until we have a clear indication that it's going to fail.

I hope you weren't looking for a more specific answer.

Well I am thinking by game 6 it should be evident if the "Plan" is working or not. If not then let's change it and move on forward. If it is then stick to it of course.

[33]

Unfortunately we now don't have the cap room or draft picks we've had in the past. So we're mostly stuck with what we have.

In today's NFL, Zorn (and hopefully Cerratto) will be given this season and maybe the following season to show some real improvement. Or it's on to the next plan.

[SkinsFTW]

Dan has to do it. Bill Walsh is dead and Belichick probably can't be pried away from the Patriots. Who else would you trust to build your dynasty? Do you have someone in mind?

The problem with hiring someone to do it is that they will often make win-now decisions with job security as their top priority.

Dan's smart enough to do it. His problem has been that, like most NFL owners, he wants to win now. Building and maintaining a dynasty requires decision-making for the long term. Once the goal has been identified, the rest of the plan can evolve.

Dan Snyder has no history of doing anything in the NFL besides screw up the Redskins for a decade. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that he has no experience as far as coaching even a High School, Jr. High, Pee Wee football team. But you believe that he can build an NFL Team and know a good decision from a bad one because the sock puppet is by his side to agree with what the owner says?

Snyder has "learned" how the league works from the owner's perspective, not as a guy coming up in the league who actually has to learn every little detail about all facets of the game in order to succeed, he doesn't know who responds to what, why you want certain players specifically for certain designs, so far he hasn't even been able to find the right coaches, even the hiring of a HOFer failed, yet he can do this?

It's not like it's Walsh/Belichick and since nobody else can be found then Snyder may as well give it his 4th or 5th shot.

You say that a hired personnel guy would make now decisions based on job security while there is plenty of evidence of Snyder making many decisions in order to sell more tickets. What decision does he make if by summertime 1/2 the season tickets aren't sold? Meanwhile, he has no successful past in this or any other league. Not a lot of friends in the league willing to help out either.

I'm just not buying it. I wouldn't hire myself to do the job you trust Snyder with, I would have probably gone after Jason Taylor as well. So I'm not claiming to know all the mistakes but some of the decisions this FO has made are just out there and we will see more.

Just wait. Last year it was the possibility of Chad Johnson for multiple picks and it fell through. This year, who knows, maybe they massively overpay Hall, trade Rogers for a 4th and 7th rounder, keep Springs who will sit out 8-12 games, and then trade away next years 1st rounder for Boldin, or whoever. It's coming. I can almost see them waiting out this one offseason to pile up a series of retardedness, therefore it would take until after the 2010 season for me to start to believe in what they are doing. I bet Snyder blows it all up before the 2010 season though since there isn't a whole lot of hope for 09. I also believe there will be some real headscratchers between now and then. If you're building for the future you don't trade a 2nd rounder and also take on the contract of a guy with 2 years max left in the league, stuff like that.

IMO, and I'm not anybody important at all, they should just build the team with the draft for a while, resign our own guys, when it starts looking good, then go after a guy or 2 who wants off his team and will likely sign for a decent amount. Yeah, kinda like the Pats with Moss, and the underrated Welker signings. Or like the Giants taking Pierce from us. We don't need to sign the 35 year old superstars who expect the superstar pay, right?

Do I have someone in mind? Well, who else was successful running the WCO for a decade? Maybe Holmgren now that he is available? Besides Walsh nobody else was really that successful were they? Reid is in Philly. Gruden, not sure about his personnel decisions. Dennis Green? I don't know, but we know that Vinny was never successful.

[Pedro]

Plan? The Skins don't really have a plan. Most of the moves last year was more reactionary than planning. The only plan was drafting 3 bums so far with our second round picks.

No one was taking pass catchers and we turned 1 pick into 3. If it was true we were going to take Thomas with our first then we got Kelly and Davis for nothing which is great business by our FO.

The Skins have always been reactionary and I don't expect that to change. We will lose player in training camp and then give away our picks in 2010. the player will then hardly contribute.

This is sadly a likely occurrence and needs to stop.

[Oldfan]

SkinsFTW --- Dan Snyder has no history of doing anything in the NFL besides screw up the Redskins for a decade. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that he has no experience as far as coaching even a High School, Jr. High, Pee Wee football team. But you believe that he can build an NFL Team and know a good decision from a bad one because the sock puppet is by his side to agree with what the owner says?

Snyder's mission statement wouldn't need to be much more elaborate than the following which I put together quickly:

Our goal is to build and maintain an NFL team that can compete annually for championships.

In our decision-making, we will choose the option offering the greatest long-term benefits.

We will seek a bargain when making every player transaction.

We will build a roster primarily through the draft.

We will draft the BPA who fits our scheme.

We will make trades with teams anxious to win now.

We will seize opportunities to trade down in the draft and for future picks.

We will seize opportunities to continually make our roster younger and stronger.

We will build a balanced football team, excellent on offense, defense and special teams.

We will attack on offense, defense and special teams.

All proposed exceptions to these rules require the approval of the owner.

Do I have someone in mind? Well, who else was successful running the WCO for a decade? Maybe Holmgren now that he is available? Besides Walsh nobody else was really that successful were they? Reid is in Philly. Gruden, not sure about his personnel decisions. Dennis Green? I don't know, but we know that Vinny was never successful.

We were talking about building a dynasty, not about someone to replace Jim Zorn if he fails. Dennis Green, Mike Holgren and Mike Shanahan are proven failures as GMs. Pioli rubbed elbows with Belichick, but Belichick had the final say on the picks, so we don't really know how well the man will do on his own in Kansas City.

Look at it this way: If Dan Snyder wants to build a dynasty he can do it himself. If he continues with his win-now goal, there is no point in him hiring a dynasty builder. He should hire a guy who can win now, a coach/GM like Marty or the Tuna who is unlikely to build a Super Bowl winner.

[fansince62]

IMO, and I'm not anybody important at all, they should just build the team with the draft for a while, resign our own guys, when it starts looking good, then go after a guy or 2 who wants off his team and will likely sign for a decent amount. Yeah, kinda like the Pats with Moss, and the underrated Welker signings. Or like the Giants taking Pierce from us. We don't need to sign the 35 year old superstars who expect the superstar pay, right?

bingo. taking it to the real implication......they need to start from the ground up. this notion of morphing from an existing base simply has not worked. in the end..the Skins appear locked into this idea set that the challenge is to add talent at the margins to the cast on hand. the problem is that they never built a solid foundation. they don't have a bedrock concept for the foundation. instead they ratchette one year to the next patching the latest perceived weakness - they don't and never have committed to a core functional area that is sustained year in and year out. successful people LIKE THE TUNA who has won SBs and built powerful teams within 2-3 yrs turn-around commit to core concepts as their departure point. and it works.

what is the core foundation of this team? no one can point to one year in and year out. ever wonder why it is B-more can go from the dregs to highly competetive football so quickly while the Skins wallow in high priced above average but still mediocre football year after year? there is no "Skins" football. there used to be. but not anymore.

[Pounds]

I think we are closer now than we have been for many years. I like the modular structure of the personnel department which enables a FA talent evaluator to be replaced while retaining a draft talent evaluator; and I like the idea that we don't seem to be interested in coaches or GMs who insist on having full control; the modular structure is better.

This idea of a "modular" front office structure is interesting to me. It makes great sense to have the program loom larger than those running it; this type of thinking serves as a foundation for success in many other arenas, provided of course that that program is a successful one.

My concern though is with those that foster this plan.

I'm very apprehensive in placing my faith in the Dan Snyder-Vinny Cerrato marriage. I like the auxiliary pieces in Scott Campbell, Morocco Brown and Jim Zorn. But my overriding concern is that it appears that Vinny is too impressionable, or too easily manipulated by Dan.

While Vinny may not be the sharpest knife the drawer, I think he has enough football sense, on his own, to know not to go after the likes of Chad Johnson and Jason Taylor. My guess is that there was something at work there behind the scenes. But, obviously, without being privy to the internals, this is just a notion of mine.

The reasoning behind the Jason Taylor trade, for instance, has Dan Snyder’s impetuous nature written all over it.

Remember, that not only did Phillip Daniels get injured on the first day of training camp, but so too did Alex Buzbee; two players, by virtue of their stature and athletic make-up, totally suited for the left defensive end position in Greg Blache’s scheme.

So to remedy this situation, the Redskins orchestrate a deal with the devil, err, I mean Bill Parcells, giving up two draft picks for Jason Taylor, a player, who at a shade over 245 lbs., should, clearly, look to be a bad fit for our scheme. A fact I’m sure Vinny was well aware of.

Yet, here we are...

[Oldfan]

bingo. taking it to the real implication......they need to start from the ground up. this notion of morphing from an existing base simply has not worked. in the end..the Skins appear locked into this idea set that the challenge is to add talent at the margins to the cast on hand. the problem is that they never built a solid foundation. they don't have a bedrock concept for the foundation. instead they ratchette one year to the next patching the latest perceived weakness - they don't and never have committed to a core functional area that is sustained year in and year out. successful people LIKE THE TUNA who has won SBs and built powerful teams within 2-3 yrs turn-around commit to core concepts as their departure point. and it works.

what is the core foundation of this team? no one can point to one year in and year out. ever wonder why it is B-more can go from the dregs to highly competetive football so quickly while the Skins wallow in high priced above average but still mediocre football year after year? there is no "Skins" football. there used to be. but not anymore.

I thought you disapproved of the win-now objective. Why then do you admire the win-now, quick-turnaround artists? As a GM, The Tuna's core concepts have won zero Super Bowls.

The Ravens. Yeah. They make quick turnarounds every other year. Their defense had 34 takeaways this past season, #1 in the NFL. They won't repeat that next season and they'll slump back to 8-8 again.

[ttr77]

You clipped off the part of my post which should have answered your question. I'll restore it for you:

No, they aren't all in the second year of a new offensive scheme and few have as many rookies from 2008 on their rosters. So, the two factors combine to put us well above the average NFL team in expected improvement due to the 2008 season experience.

If all other factors offset, we'd be guaranteed to win more games next year.

If all factors offset for those teams, they will improve. However, the Dolphins had a +17 turnover ratio and the Ravens defense had 34 takeaways. Both stats represent the highest in the NFL and neither stat has a history of consistency from year to year. So, those teams have a major negative facing them in 2009. I don't know Atlanta's situation.

Ok, if ALL factors offset the team will improve. So:

Zorn has to get improve at coaching.

JC has to get better with experience.

The aging OL has to be able to fight off injuries.

The 2nd year players need to show that they can play.

The defense has to start creating turnovers.

The FO needs to show they can bring in impact players.

What else?

Yes, if all these factors improve, the team will be better. What evidence do we have that ANY of them will? Other than they are all a year more experienced?

[Ernie5]

That's right, Oldfan. Snyder earns hatred b/c he wants to win now and impatiently signs a bunch of overpriced FAs in 2000, changes coaches too much, etc ... Now, he sticks w/Gibbs for four years, hands the personnel chair to a long-time FO guy here, and tries to build a consistent winner by sticking w/a core group of guys, he gets a flaming bag.

It's also funny the non-stop love of the lets-trade-up-to-draft-Kyle-Boller Ravens. A good organization, no doubt, but one that has revamped on offense seemingly every year -- with few results. They hire an unknown, non-coordinator, first-time HC and keep the D coaching side in tact and are lauded for thinking outside the box. We do it and we don't know what we're doing. Pretty amazing the free pass B'more gets compared to us. They were more successful than us this year -- no doubt -- but I'm not convinced they were significantly better. Let's see what 2009 brings.

[Ernie5]

Yes, if all these factors improve, the team will be better. What evidence do we have that ANY of them will? Other than they are all a year more experienced?

What evidence do have that smart new head coaches and talented young QBs working together don't improve with time and experience?

Bottom line: not all of these factors have to happen. If Campbell is better in 2009, that will make a measurable difference. As the team was 8-8 w/a bunch of problems, that should result in a winning record and a playoff shot.

[Oldfan]

Pounds --- I'm very apprehensive in placing my faith in the Dan Snyder-Vinny Cerrato marriage. I like the auxiliary pieces in Scott Campbell, Morocco Brown and Jim Zorn. But my overriding concern is that it appears that Vinny is too impressionable, or too easily manipulated by Dan.

While Vinny may not be the sharpest knife the drawer, I think he has enough football sense, on his own, to know not to go after the likes of Chad Johnson and Jason Taylor. My guess is that there was something at work there behind the scenes. But, obviously, without being privy to the internals, this is just a notion of mine.

I'm not impressed with the brainpower of our top two guys, but they aren't stupid. They are capable of learning from mistakes and they've pretty much made them all.

I think the biggest problem is that Dan is very much like the typical Redskin fan. They talk about building a perennial winner, but when it comes right down to it, they want to win now. All the short-term moves made by the organization have been enthusiastically applauded by the fans. 89% polled in ES favored the Jason Taylor trade.

[TheLongshot]

bingo. taking it to the real implication......they need to start from the ground up. this notion of morphing from an existing base simply has not worked. in the end..the Skins appear locked into this idea set that the challenge is to add talent at the margins to the cast on hand. the problem is that they never built a solid foundation. they don't have a bedrock concept for the foundation. instead they ratchette one year to the next patching the latest perceived weakness - they don't and never have committed to a core functional area that is sustained year in and year out. successful people LIKE THE TUNA who has won SBs and built powerful teams within 2-3 yrs turn-around commit to core concepts as their departure point. and it works.

what is the core foundation of this team? no one can point to one year in and year out. ever wonder why it is B-more can go from the dregs to highly competetive football so quickly while the Skins wallow in high priced above average but still mediocre football year after year? there is no "Skins" football. there used to be. but not anymore.

Well, offensively it starts with the QB and works on out. So, Campbell, Moss, Portis and Cooley is our offensive core. Defensively, it starts with the MLB, Fletcher and goes back to the secondary, which I think is one of the best in the league.

To say we don't have a core is ignoring the team that Gibbs built and what Zorn is using as a foundation for his team.

Funny you mention Baltimore, who has been patching their offense for years to no avail. Maybe they've finally found a QB, but that whole offense has been a revolving door of players while the defense has kept them afloat. As for why they can be so competitive so quickly? It helps when you play the Browns and the Bengals twice a year. Even so, they've wavered between being great and being mediocre for the past 10 years.

[ttr77]

Just for fun, I went back and looked at the last 4 seasons.

There were 27 new coaches hired.

12 of them improved in Year 2

12 of them got worse in Year 2

3 were fired before Year 2

So, I guess that puts the odds pretty much at .500, even though most of these coaches took over horrible teams that had nowhere to go but up as opposed to taking over a playoff team from the year before.

[Pounds]

I think the biggest problem is that Dan is very much like the typical Redskin fan. They talk about building a perennial winner, but when it comes right down to it, they want to win now

This is why I think for any plan to prove successful it should be implemented and administered by someone Dan not only trusts, but respects, largely independent of Dan.

He can not be allowed to make any kind of football related decision. His judgement stinks.

[ttr77]

I think the biggest problem is that Dan is very much like the typical Redskin fan. They talk about building a perennial winner, but when it comes right down to it, they want to win now. All the short-term moves made by the organization have been enthusiastically applauded by the fans. 89% polled in ES favored the Jason Taylor trade.

I feel that this mentality has been cultivated by the FO. They seem to spend just as much effort creating offseason excitement than they do on in-season results.

[Ernie5]

I feel that this mentality has been cultivated by the FO. They seem to spend just as much effort creating offseason excitement than they do on in-season results.

Recently? I don't see that.

Seems to me that discussions of Snyder giving up responsibility for building this team ignores the fact that most NFL owners have some role in making these decisions. We don't know fully how active Snyder is in this department and we don't really know, outside of perhaps Dallas, how active other owners are.

We do know that guys like Pat Bowlen (Denver), the Glazer family (Tampa Bay), Woody Johnson (NY Jets), the Hunt family (KC), and Jerry Richardson (Carolina) exercise great discretion in hiring/personnel decisions. Heck, before hiring Harbaugh, the Ravens owner told the GM, "get me the next Mike Tomlin." Owners are involved. They are business people and fans. Some are more "football people" than others, but many of them don't sit passively by waiting for stuff to happen.

[Oldfan]

Ok, if ALL factors offset the team will improve. So:

Zorn has to get improve at coaching.

JC has to get better with experience.

The aging OL has to be able to fight off injuries.

The 2nd year players need to show that they can play.

The defense has to start creating turnovers.

The FO needs to show they can bring in impact players.

What else?

Yes, if all these factors improve, the team will be better. What evidence do we have that ANY of them will? Other than they are all a year more experienced?

You either are argumentative and choosing to ignore it or you have a poor grasp on the concept of Probability.

If the defense makes a greater effort to get takeaways, getting more takeaways is almost a sure thing. Whether this will improve the team depends on how well the effort is implemented.

The second year improvement because of experience of Jason, Zorn and the 2008 rookies is nearly certain. Still, other negative factors unforeseen might cancel out the improvement.

The FO can bring in impact players. That has been established in prior drafts. The question of how many impact players will we have in 2009 is not a question that can be answered. So, we can't weigh the probability of improvement.

The aging O line is likely to have injuries. The FO made some effort to bolster that group in 2008 and is likely to do more. I think a performance no better or worse than the NFL average is reasonable based on probability.

The probabity of any individual improvement, like Malcom Kelly's gain in experience being cancelled out by an negative factor, like Kelly's knees, will vary with the individual. However, the odds against none of those improvements you listed happening is huge.