Belichick's Roster Planning

[AngloSackSon]

I agree there is high levels of nondisclosure in his system.

Though, even if other teams could figure out his system design, there is a low probability of repeating his success because of one overlooked factor: luck.

Being able to develop a 6th round pick into perhaps the most successful QB of all time is a once in a lifetime occurrence.

Additionally, the play they've received from their draft picks has been pretty damn fortunate as well. Plenty of teams have great scouting, but every team would be lucky to have a success rate of somewhere closer 60%, with their drafted players.

I can think of only one high draft pick that has not shown real potential for the Patriots recently, Chad Jackson. Maroney is proving to be obsolete, but that has been more due to injury than ineptitude.

Oldfan, I think you may be right about their run of dominance being in jeopardy. It seems the inevitable, injuries, may have afflicted the team too significantly to overcome with their current core.

[Rufus T Firefly]

I agree there is high levels of nondisclosure in his system.

Though, even if other teams could figure out his system design, there is a low probability of repeating his success because of one overlooked factor: luck.

Being able to develop a 6th round pick into perhaps the most successful QB of all time is a once in a lifetime occurrence.

Additionally, the play they've received from their draft picks has been pretty damn fortunate as well. Plenty of teams have great scouting, but every team would be lucky to have a success rate of somewhere closer 60%, with their drafted players.

I can think of only one high draft pick that has not shown real potential for the Patriots recently, Chad Jackson. Maroney is proving to be obsolete, but that has been more due to injury than ineptitude.

Oldfan, I think you may be right about their run of dominance being in jeopardy. It seems the inevitable, injuries, may have afflicted the team too significantly to overcome with their current core.

Bethel Johnson was a bust. Marquise Hill was well on his way before his tragic death. Guss Scott was a horrid 3rd rounder. David Thomas was a mediocre 3rd at best. Benjamin Watson hasn't set the world on fire. Merriweather is questionable at this point. And they haven't really had a "wow" draft pick in the last 5 years, accepting maybe Cassel (I'm still thinking the jury is out on him being as good as people claim).

At this point, they're really getting by on Bellichick's coaching, FAs and the drafts of the first half of the decade.

Luck is a major factor people don't like to acknowledge. No matter how good you are, you need certain things to work out better than you expected, and to not have bad luck derail you, in order to build a powerhouse. It's the reason, I think, that "genius" guys like Beathard, Policy and Jimmy Johnson couldn't re-create their level of success at other stops. You would need to have a run of luck hit you twice to do it again, and that isn't likely.

[Oldfan]

Though, even if other teams could figure out his system design, there is a low probability of repeating his success because of one overlooked factor: luck...Being able to develop a 6th round pick into perhaps the most successful QB of all time is a once in a lifetime occurrence.

We are pretty much in agreement on all your points except this one. As I said in the OP, it's my opinion that all players are system players. Tom Brady's success is due largely to his good fortune in being drafted by a team that allowed him to reach his potential. Given support equal to that given Brady, I think Carson Palmer would be better, for example.

[Oldfan]

Luck is a major factor people don't like to acknowledge...I think, that "genius" guys like Beathard..

Beathard's 1981 draft, added to the talent already on board, launched a decade of success -- and Bobby never came close to that kind of success again. Luck was certainly a factor. But, the Patriots are another matter.

They have consistently used their early picks well. My guess is that it isn't so much that they draft great players; it's that they fit the schemes so well and they learn to play their positions well with experience.

[UK Redskins Fan]

One thing i've noticed about the Patriots is that they will often trade for future draft picks and I think that's an interesting area that rarely gets mentioned.

The value of future picks is greatly reduced on most draft charts, often by as much as a round, so for a team that is thinking long-term it makes a lot of sense to trade for future picks.

Say, for example, a team trades this year's 1st round pick for a 1st and a 3rd in next year's draft. In six year's time it will hardly matter if your 1st rounder was drafted in 2009 or 2010 but if that additional 3rd rounder turns out to be another Chris Cooley that's a huge benefit to your team.

Interestingly, the Redskins policy seems to be the exact opposite of this and future draft picks are often traded away despite their reduced value, a very short-term strategy if it can be called a strategy at all.

[Fuzzyskins]

Wow great post. I liek how you think,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[Oldfan]

One thing i've noticed about the Patriots is that they will often trade for future draft picks and I think that's an interesting area that rarely gets mentioned.

The value of future picks is greatly reduced on most draft charts, often by as much as a round, so for a team that is thinking long-term it makes a lot of sense to trade for future picks.

Say, for example, a team trades this year's 1st round pick for a 1st and a 3rd in next year's draft. In six year's time it will hardly matter if your 1st rounder was drafted in 2009 or 2010 but if that additional 3rd rounder turns out to be another Chris Cooley that's a huge benefit to your team.

Interestingly, the Redskins policy seems to be the exact opposite of this and future draft picks are often traded away despite their reduced value, a very short-term strategy if it can be called a strategy at all.

You have it. Long-term thinkers, like the Patriots, take advantage of short-term thinkers, like the Redskins, in trades.

[Oldfan]

Wow great post. I liek how you think,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Many thanks.

[twenty-eight]

Excellent post, Oldfan.

The first name that popped into my mind after reading your post was Jim Schwartz. He's coached under some of the games best coaches. He has an economics degree from Georgetown...and he seems to be able to get the maximum oout of his players. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do.

[Oldfan]

Excellent post, Oldfan.

The first name that popped into my mind after reading your post was Jim Schwartz. He's coached under some of the games best coaches. He has an economics degree from Georgetown...and he seems to be able to get the maximum oout of his players. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do.

Thank you.

Yes, I'm watching that Detroit situation also. Did you know that his first job in football was doing statistical research for Belichick in Cleveland?

They have a GM with a law degree up there too. That brainpower is a good foundation to build on.

[Fight for ole DC]

Once again, Old Fan, you have delivered a very good thread. I really enjoy reading your posts. I don't always agree with what I read from you but for whatever it's worth I give you very high grades for a well organized, informative, and thoughtful post. I will keep the other categories on which you are graded a secret since you don't need to know.

Thanks!

HTTR

[Oldfan]

Once again, Old Fan, you have delivered a very good thread. I really enjoy reading your posts. I don't always agree with what I read from you but for whatever it's worth I give you very high grades for a well organized, informative, and thoughtful post. I will keep the other categories on which you are graded a secret since you don't need to know.

Thanks!

HTTR

I'll settle for that. Thank you.

[twenty-eight]

Thank you.

Yes, I'm watching that Detroit situation also. Did you know that his first job in football was doing statistical research for Belichick in Cleveland?

They have a GM with a law degree up there too. That brainpower is a good foundation to build on.

Yeah I did know that. He's learned from two of the games best in fisher & Belichick.

and.....PATRIOTS LOSE ANOTHER COACH

[33]

Who knows how KC will turn out with Pioli, but this thread is completely downplaying Pioli's previous responsibilities in NE.

The Pats differ from virtually every NFL team because essentially only two people are involved in the player acquisition. (Most clubs have four: the coach, personnel executive, salary-cap guru and contract negotiator.) After significant input from Pioli -- who also manages the cap and negotiates contracts -- Belichick has final say.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/nunyo_demasio/01/12/patriots/

[Oldfan]

Who knows how KC will turn out with Pioli, but this thread is completely downplaying Pioli's previous responsibilities in NE.

I have no doubt that Belichick told Pioli all he needed to know about acquiring the kind of talent he wanted. I also don't doubt that Pioli picked up a lot of knowledge in areas other than talent acquistion. What I don't know is how much of the whole thing he took away.

[Dance04]

Starting Defensive line

Ty Warren - 1st round

Richard Seymour - 1st round

Vince Wilfork - 1st round

Starting Offensive line

Matt Light - 2nd round

Logan Mankins- 1st round

Dan Koppen - 5th round

Billy Yates - FA

Nick Kaczur - 3rd round

So what was that again about not using draft picks on o-lineman?

The pats offensive line is top 5.

All 3 players of their defensive line were first round picks.

Let's draft lineman

/close thread

[Oldfan]

So what was that again about not using draft picks on o-lineman?

You wasted your time. Your stats counter an argument I never made.

[Dance04]

Your stats counter an argument I never made.

Yes it does. In this thread and your other thread titled

"are we sure we should draft lineman"

Right here in this very thread you talk about how they built through FA and stuff like that.

[Dance04]

How did they go about acquiring talent? Well, they didn't go out and spend a #1 pick on a franchise QB to build around; and they didn't build in the trenches first. They made a few trades of picks for vets; they've used free agents; and they've traded up and down in the draft. The only thing unusual about their program seems to be the quality of their talent evaluation.

I also think that Belichick, the economist, has his approach geared to find surplus value (bargains) in the draft. The draft is the place to find bargains because it's a closed market.

does your hypocrisy know no bounds?

[33]

I have no doubt that Belichick told Pioli all he needed to know about acquiring the kind of talent he wanted. I also don't doubt that Pioli picked up a lot of knowledge in areas other than talent acquistion. What I don't know is how much of the whole thing he took away.

I enjoy the thread. It's though-provoking. However, the part about Pioli just ignores Pioli's actual job responsibilities.

Why bring it up if you choose to draw your own completely out of the blue conclusions to their actual working relationship? That's a conversation killer, not starter.

I don't think many people doubt that Belichick taught/told Pioli plenty. That doesn't preclude Pioli from being an integral part of that organization. They never would have pushed for the famous Pioli Rule, or turned down requests to interview him if he wasn't.

[chipwhich]

Starting Defensive line

Ty Warren - 1st round

Richard Seymour - 1st round

Vince Wilfork - 1st round

Starting Offensive line

Matt Light - 2nd round

Logan Mankins- 1st round

Dan Koppen - 5th round

Billy Yates - FA

Nick Kaczur - 3rd round

So what was that again about not using draft picks on o-lineman?

The pats offensive line is top 5.

All 3 players of their defensive line were first round picks.

Let's draft lineman

/close thread

I already tried this on Oldfan. Through all of his grandstanding in this thread he absolutely REFUSES to see the obvious as you posted above and if you look at their money picks in the draft, they draft heavily in the lines.

He likes to make it look like the patriots and pioli and belicheck have this secret society that does things that nobody else can figure out.

The real secret is Parcells left bellichek with a nice little team. They drafted some key pieces to the puzzle, were fortunate to win quickly and build a winning franchise, and have the ability to bring in troublemakers piece bu piece and make them conform.

Oldfan, I like most of your work. As I have said, this thread and the Should we draft lineman thread were way off the mark.

[Oldfan]

I don't think many people doubt that Belichick taught/told Pioli plenty. That doesn't preclude Pioli from being an integral part of that organization. They never would have pushed for the famous Pioli Rule, or turned down requests to interview him if he wasn't.

Why bring it up if you choose to draw your own completely out of the blue conclusions to their actual working relationship? That's a conversation killer, not starter.

I switched the paragraph order in your post to make my point.

In your first paragraph, you see the "famous Pioli Rule" as evidence supporting your conclusion. I saw Belichick's penchant for secrecy as evidence leading to my mine.

So, please explain the difference. Why is my conclusion "strictly out of the blue" and yours not?

[Oldfan]

Yes it does. In this thread and your other thread titled

"are we sure we should draft lineman"

Right here in this very thread you talk about how they built through FA and stuff like that.

This is really very simple. If I'm wrong, you should be able to quote me. So, just stop the silly argumentative crap and find the quote where I claimed that the Patriots did not draft linemen.

[Oldfan]

I already tried this on Oldfan. Through all of his grandstanding in this thread he absolutely REFUSES to see the obvious as you posted above and if you look at their money picks in the draft, they draft heavily in the lines.

That facts won't change no matter how many times you try to weasel around them. 36.4% of the Patriots positions are linemen. From 2000 to 2008, 22 of 77 picks (28.6%) were spent on linemen. 13 of 39 picks in rounds 1-4 (33.3%) were spent on linemen.

The only remarkable thing about the Patriots drafts is their hit rate. They draft better than other teams.

[fansince62]

2001 10 picks

- Richard Seymour DT; sixth pick in the draft

- 10% of draft is d-line; 50% defense overall

2002 6 picks

- only one defensive selection in fourth round

2003 10 Picks

- Ty Warren DE; 13th pick in the draft

- 40% of NE's draft was for d-line this draft; 60% overall for defense

2004 8 picks

- Vince Wilfork DT; 21st pick in the draft; 3rd round pick is a DE

- 25% of draft is d-line; 63% of draft is defense

Parcells, of course, had left a talented base. the Pats made d-line a priority with their high priority picks. they certainly didn't neglect the foundation - billicheat arrived in 2000. by any way, shape or form...the Skins have NOT done similarly for an extended set of drafts.