Investments

[McD5]

And Peter, regarding your quotes from safehaven.com? I have never seen it. I did see it mentioned in the bashing article.....but that isn't where he makes his recommendations. Those are made in the nightly emails, from that link above. And the site bashing him says they are "moderately" confident? What the heck does that mean?

Is that a C on a scale of A-F? I wouldn't go to a Dr. who was "moderately" confident that he knew what he was doing. And more importantly.....they didn't even track his picks. They tracked comments from another site, called them his picks, then responded.

When confronted, they edited their remarks. Pretty weak.

Anyway.....I would judge yourself in real time. Let's see what we have so far:

Now.....if we are keeping track, here is what we know so far, that we have all seen with our own eyes in just the first week of this thread here. Mind you, an extremely small sample size, hard to draw any conclusions yet.

If, one week ago you had read McHugh as I did, and posted here, let's look at the different returns on a $100,000 account.

The SPX 500 is down 10% in the last week alone, since he said to short stocks immediately, for a 7-10 day dump. Not only was the timing impressive, but notice how he specifically said 7-10 days, not just a sharp 1-3 day pullback.

7 days later, here is where we three different approaches stand:

Starting Balance 100k

Investor A, Buy and Hold: Current Balance 90k

Investor B, Stop loss, read McHugh and just sold: Current Balance 100k

Investor C, Shorted mkt as McHugh said: Current Balance 110k

Now which of those three would you prefer to be right now?

I would choose Investor C.

Investor D, Me. Shorted mkt as McHugh said, 2:1 leverage: Balance 118.5k

I am going to remove myself from this list, as I am more aggressive than most, and have a ton of experience. It is unrealistic to think that an average investor will achieve results like mine.

So investor A, a nonstop source of commissions for mutual fund companies, the ostrich, is down to 90k.

Investor B, an extremely low-risk, and unagressive trader is at 100k.

Investor C, a person who sold and went short is at 110k.

The difference between investor A and C is $20k after just the first week.

What % now does investor A need to make to catch up to investor C?

20/90= 22%. Investor A now has to make 22% to simply get even to where investor C is after one single week.

Investor A would kill for the mkt to go up 22% in one year. 22% would be a huge year for the buy and hold type.

The score after the first week?

Market Timing 1

Conservative Market stop loss 0

Buy and Pray -1

I will post his new update when I get it.

[McD5]

Maybe so. I don't really care because, as I said, I find the very concept of "guru analysis" to be largely a waste of time.

Uh, correlation is not causality. Unless you've got a convincing story to explain this supposed link, I don't care how well things might match up.

I doubted it too at first. Then for the last three years I have watched one individual continually print cash using the method.....which of course prompted me to research it.

I will post some good links tomorrow. Extremely interesting indeed.

For starters....here is a trivia question for you:

The three worst days in the history of the market all happened when?

I will post the answer tomorrow....along with empirical evidence over the last 100 years to 1 year showing the benefits of buying and selling on the new moon, compared to doing so on the full moon every month.

Have a great night.

[PeterMP]

And Peter, regarding your quotes from safehaven.com? I have never seen it. I did see it mentioned in the bashing article.....but that isn't where he makes his recommendations. Those are made in the nightly emails, from that link above. And the site bashing him says they are "moderately" confident? What the heck does that mean?

Is that a C on a scale of A-F? I wouldn't go to a Dr. who was "moderately" confident that he knew what he was doing. And more importantly.....they didn't even track his picks. They tracked comments from another site, called them his picks, then responded.

When confronted, they edited their remarks. Pretty weak.

Anyway.....I would judge yourself in real time. Let's see what we have so far:

Now.....if we are keeping track, here is what we know so far, that we have all seen with our own eyes in just the first week of this thread here. Mind you, an extremely small sample size, hard to draw any conclusions yet.

If, one week ago you had read McHugh as I did, and posted here, let's look at the different returns on a $100,000 account.

The SPX 500 is down 10% in the last week alone, since he said to short stocks immediately, for a 7-10 day dump. Not only was the timing impressive, but notice how he specifically said 7-10 days, not just a sharp 1-3 day pullback.

7 days later, here is where we three different approaches stand:

Starting Balance 100k

Investor A, Buy and Hold: Current Balance 90k

Investor B, Stop loss, read McHugh and just sold: Current Balance 100k

Investor C, Shorted mkt as McHugh said: Current Balance 110k

Now which of those three would you prefer to be right now?

I would choose Investor C.

Investor D, Me. Shorted mkt as McHugh said, 2:1 leverage: Balance 118.5k

I am going to remove myself from this list, as I am more aggressive than most, and have a ton of experience. It is unrealistic to think that an average investor will achieve results like mine.

So investor A, a nonstop source of commissions for mutual fund companies, the ostrich, is down to 90k.

Investor B, an extremely low-risk, and unagressive trader is at 100k.

Investor C, a person who sold and went short is at 110k.

The difference between investor A and C is $20k after just the first week.

What % now does investor A need to make to catch up to investor C?

20/90= 22%. Investor A now has to make 22% to simply get even to where investor C is after one single week.

Investor A would kill for the mkt to go up 22% in one year. 22% would be a huge year for the buy and hold type.

The score after the first week?

Market Timing 1

Conservative Market stop loss 0

Buy and Pray -1

I will post his new update when I get it.

They are his comments. There's pages of them.

I'm 100% confident that he wrote that gold could get up to $1,300 by the end of 2008 (after it had already fallen from what turned out to be its high point in 2008). I'm 100% confident that he's been essentially been calling for sharp downturns in the market since 2004.

Was he saying one thing on that website and something else to his subscribers?

Nobody is saying that he might not be on a streak when he's doing well. That of course is balanced by the fact that he's been calling for pretty severe market corrections since AT LEAST 2004.

If I say there are going to be severe decreases in the market for long enough, eventually I'm going to be right.

[techboy]

The score after the first week?

Actually, the score's been running for 30+ years. I'll grant you the $18,000 you made, and even subtract your 10,000 "loss" for buy and hold. That's 28,000 advantage, right?

Let's see... 9,500,000,000,000 minus 28,000 is...

$9,499,999,999,982,000.

That's a lot of lunar cycles. Better get trading.

Actually, you'd better not.

P.S. It is the height of silliness to use one week of data to assess a long term strategy, even if we grant your specifically cherry picked data. You have postgraduate degrees, so I assume you know better than that.

I will post the answer tomorrow....along with empirical evidence over the last 100 years to 1 year showing the benefits of buying and selling on the new moon, compared to doing so on the full moon every month.

Correlation. Is. Not. Causality.

Just what are your postgraduate degrees in, anyway?

Backtesting can reveal all kinds of weird data artifacts, just by random chance. Unless you have a story that shows a link, that kind of weird effect is just that, weird.

Moreover, it can disappear at any time. Remember the link of Redskins home games and Presidential elections?

[McD5]

Actually, the score's been running for 30+ years. I'll grant you the $18,000 you made, and even subtract your 10,000 "loss" for buy and hold. That's 28,000 advantage, right?

Let's see... 9,500,000,000,000 minus 28,000 is...

$9,499,999,999,982,000.

That's a lot of lunar cycles. Better get trading.

Actually, you'd better not.

P.S. It is the height of silliness to use one week of data to assess a long term strategy, even if we grant your specifically cherry picked data. You have postgraduate degrees, so I assume you know better than that.

Not sure what that top number is that you are referring to. Obviously it is neither McHugh nor I.

I am hesitant to even continue posting this stuff, because I know exactly what is going to happen.

Within 6 mths, McHugh will be $80,000-$90,000 better on that initial $100k investment than the buy and pray gamblers, and then feelings are going to get hurt....people will get pissed, etc.

I am just trying to help people.

And for anyone that has, or is considering emailing me to handle your accounts, although flattered, I cannot do so. My plate is full. And sorry, but that is a policy I have that won't change in the future.

What I can do is continue to post some good ideas based on technicals, that should continue to allow people to greatly outperform the nonsense dollar-cost-averaging, buy-and-pray bs that generates the mutual fund companies commissions for life. And I can tell you what I am doing.....mainly based on McHugh.

I am busy trading today at work....but will post some interesting things later.

Have a great day.

[techboy]

Not sure what that top number is that you are referring to. Obviously it is neither McHugh nor I.

If you're not sure what the 9.5 trillion dollar number is, then you haven't been giving the data I've been presenting much attention, which I guess might explain why you keep asserting things about buy and hold that simply aren't correct.

[techboy]

I am just trying to help people.

This, I really do believe.

Unfortunately, the cold, hard data (collected over decades, not one week) says that you are horribly wrong.

[zoony]

McD5- going back to your dow prediction of 5-6k later this year, how sure are you of that and what is it you're seeing that makes you think that?

Anyone else think it will go that way? Any good links to prognosticators?

[McD5]

This, I really do believe.

Unfortunately, the cold, hard data (collected over decades, not one week) says that you are horribly wrong.

Well the last 10 years to current timeframe would suggest I am very correct.

I really don't care what happened 60 years ago....90 years ago.....etc.

I am more concerned about what is happening now, and what is going to happen in the future.

Even the use of the most simple money management, from guys like William O'Neil, utilizing a 5% stop policy would have just saved invetors 40% on their lifelong stock savings accounts.

It took a long time to build those up.....but they can be halved incredibly quickly.

[techboy]

Well the last 10 years to current timeframe would suggest I am very correct.

How can you judge a 20+ year strategy on 10 years of data? :doh:

If you tried that in 1929 or 1975 or 2001 or during any of our many Bear Markets, you'd get the same results. And yet, over the full time span (1972-2002), a period which was the worst possible for buy and hold, market timing still lost 9.5 trillion dollars compared to buy and hold.

In order for you to be right, this time has to be different.

Which means that the economy has to keep contracting. Forever.

It means that the equity premium has to disappear. Forever.

It means that the U.S. has collapsed, the dollar is worthless, and whatever you earned day trading won't be worth as much as canned food, bottled water, and a shotgun.

Why is this so difficult?

[McD5]

McD5- going back to your dow prediction of 5-6k later this year, how sure are you of that and what is it you're seeing that makes you think that?

Anyone else think it will go that way? Any good links to prognosticators?

I don't want to see that Zoony.....but yes, the charts and technical trading measures are pointing to such a move.

But first, we should have one more leg up, allowing people to lighten up a little....I believe in the 10k-10,500 range.

The chartist I would refer you to is William McHugh. He is neither a bear nor a bull.....and has been incredibly accurate. You can find the link to his website, and a free daily trial, a few pages back.

I believe we have serious problems as a country right now....I will list a few fundamental reasons that would correlate with the chart predictions. Please give me your input, I am curious to see what you think.

1. This country no longer makes anything. Aside from airplanes and defense products....weapons, etc--what do we really make that we can sell to anyone? We used to make cars.....we can't even do that right anymore. Beer? Bud just sold out.

We are basically a service economy now. We have no products to export. We have to import a ton of things, including oil. We are great at booking vacations for people....getting them drinks at resorts....but we don't make anything.

2. The entire financial system is broken. I mean all of it. The banks have been lying for years and have no money, and no idea what they are doing. Bank of America, which just recently bought out Merrill Lynch at $30, is now trading in the $7s, down another 12% today. They are on their knees begging for money. Citigroup looks like it is on its way to zero.

The entire banking system is the second biggest ponzi scheme on earth, only behind social security.

3. Our leaders are clueless. Paulson especially. Not only have they screwed us beyond belief, but they were a major part of the problem we now face. All of them. Clinton, Bush, Greenspan, Bernanke, Barney Frank and Paulson. No one is safe from blame. Even on the state and local level, they are out of control.

4. There is no accountability for anyone in this country. Where are the handcuffs?? Madoff just stole $50 billion or more, and he is out on bail, looking at only 5 years in prison at worst. What kind of example is that? Have you seen one banker or mortgage lender in jail yet? No, because they are all in bed with those listed in paragraph #3, above.

After the internet scam.....they arrested people on live television. This scam is 100x the size of that scam, and yet no one goes to jail.

5. There is no regulation in the financial industry. I hate to say that, but there really is none. Market manipulation is everywhere, from the oil pits to the hedge funds....and none of our leaders do anything about it. The same thing in real estate/lending. In Florida alone, it was recently disclosed that over 10,000 mortgage brokers are convicted felons. How hard is it to regulate that? It takes 5 minutes to do a background check.

6. Layoffs. And I mean a ton of them. Just one hour ago, Circuit City announced that they were immediately closing all locations. That is another 30,000 people that just lost their job today. What are they going to do for work now? And are they going to help the economy in the near future? Buy new cars, buy new homes?

7. The dollar. We are printing so many of them, that the dollar in your wallet continues to be worth less and less. We can't keep this pace up, or we will go under as a country.

Those are a few of the big reasons. We have a lot of work to do in this country, and I don't see any of it being done.

:mad:

[FanboyOf91]

McD5- going back to your dow prediction of 5-6k later this year, how sure are you of that and what is it you're seeing that makes you think that?

Anyone else think it will go that way? Any good links to prognosticators?

I think we stand a good chance of hitting rock bottom in the next few years. Retail sucks, our major banks suck, the malls suck, manufacturing all over the world has overproduced and now sucks.

But housing is the big reason why.

Here's an article on why Option ARMs are going to be the next big wave of housing suckage (here is a good explanation of what an Option ARM is).

Couple this with the massive amount of mortgage-backed securities held by major banks, municipalities, school districts, hedge funds, and pension plans and the credit default swaps written on those securities...:doh:

Also, everything McD5 said above.

[zoony]

No doubt that there is a lot of uncertainty right now McD. And no doubt that there is some broken **** out there, most notably in the financial sector.

As for manufacturing, I disagree. We continue to make things, but not in the classic factory sense of the word. Rather than making a $200 appliance, we are manufacturing $200 pieces of software.

Ideas is what creates jobs and job growth. Manufacturing in the classic sense has become a 3rd world industry- with those controlling the manufacturing residing in the 1st world. I suspect India and even Africa at some point will be the next major players when it comes to manufacturing. Labor is too scarce in developed countries.

And you're right, deregulation got us into this mess. Good news is that I think many in power realize this. We've already seen more regulation such as Fannie/Freddie... and I think we'll see more in the near future. There are many banks that are doing just fine. The banks that did dumb things like leveraging 30:1 are the ones that went under.

And yes, Madoff facing 5 years is a joke, agree there.

My prediction is that the market continues to see volatility and ups/downs thru July or so of this year. I think we'll continue to be around 9-10k. But I think after July the economy will start to see small gains here and there. I think we'll have a reasonably decent Q4, and 2010 we'll see real rebound.

2007 is when all of this mess really started. I just don't see it lasting for over 2 years. jmo

[McD5]

No doubt that there is a lot of uncertainty right now McD. And no doubt that there is some broken **** out there, most notably in the financial sector.

As for manufacturing, I disagree. We continue to make things, but not in the classic factory sense of the word. Rather than making a $200 appliance, we are manufacturing $200 pieces of software.

Ideas is what creates jobs and job growth. Manufacturing in the classic sense has become a 3rd world industry- with those controlling the manufacturing residing in the 1st world. I suspect India and even Africa at some point will be the next major players when it comes to manufacturing. Labor is too scarce in developed countries.

And you're right, deregulation got us into this mess. Good news is that I think many in power realize this. We've already seen more regulation such as Fannie/Freddie... and I think we'll see more in the near future. There are many banks that are doing just fine. The banks that did dumb things like leveraging 30:1 are the ones that went under.

And yes, Madoff facing 5 years is a joke, agree there.

My prediction is that the market continues to see volatility and ups/downs thru July or so of this year. I think we'll continue to be around 9-10k. But I think after July the economy will start to see small gains here and there. I think we'll have a reasonably decent Q4, and 2010 we'll see real rebound.

2007 is when all of this mess really started. I just don't see it lasting for over 2 years. jmo

I see your point on the manufacturing, and am actually a supporter of some job outsourcing. It is always in the best interest of all involved to have the low-cost manufacturer making things. I like free trade.

Having said that....the loss of manufacturing that does hurt us, in mainly in the case of jobs and unemployment. That can't be ignored. Our auto situation is not looking good at the moment. That is a ton of people, both currently employed, and on pensions.

I hope you are correct on your market call......I much, much, much prefer when the market goes up. I hate pessimism, and in time, do believe we will recover from this mess.

Having said that....things like a commercial real estate plunge, (no one is opening up new businesses right now and leasing space in shopping malls or strip malls) and the lack of employment could lead to a rough year here.

Thanks for your input.

[McD5]

Just loaded into the mkt long, expecting a multi-week violent rally to begin on Tuesday fwiw, per McHugh.

Dow down 60 right now.

[PeterMP]

What I can do is continue to post some good ideas based on technicals, that should continue to allow people to greatly outperform the nonsense dollar-cost-averaging, buy-and-pray bs that generates the mutual fund companies commissions for life. And I can tell you what I am doing.....mainly based on McHugh.

From July 18th of 2003 through July of 2004 in all but ONE week he predicted there was a high and/or very high chance of a market decline and/or a SUBSTANTIAL market decline in the next 12 weeks. On June 30th, he predicted that there was a high chance of the market sideways in the next 12 weeks (and everything else- including rise or substantial rise was given a medium).

For an entire YEAR (except for once), given a the choice of a substantial rise, a rise, going sideways, a decrease, or a substantial decrease, he said it was most likely the market would go down and many times SUBSTANTIALLY over the next 12 weeks. In that year, the DIJA increased by about 1,000.

Interestingly, his report no longer contains information in such a nice straight forward manner.

If I wanted to know where the market was going to be in 2-4 months from now, what would you focus on?

Imagine shorting for 12 week spans for an entire YEAR where the market was up 1,000. I wonder how much you'd have lost.

[McD5]

From July 18th of 2003 through July of 2004 in all but ONE week he predicted there was a high and/or very high chance of a market decline and/or a SUBSTANTIAL market decline in the next 12 weeks. On June 30th, he predicted that there was a high chance of the market sideways in the next 12 weeks (and everything else- including rise or substantial rise was given a medium).

For an entire YEAR (except for once), given a the choice of a substantial rise, a rise, going sideways, a decrease, or a substantial decrease, he said it was most likely the market would go down and many times SUBSTANTIALLY over the next 12 weeks. In that year, the DIJA increased by about 1,000.

Interestingly, his report no longer contains information in such a nice straight forward manner.

If I wanted to know where the market was going to be in 2-4 months from now, what would you focus on?

Imagine shorting for 12 week spans for an entire YEAR where the market was up 1,000. I wonder how much you'd have lost.

If those are taken from safehaven.com? and not his recommendations, I wouldn't give them any merit.

I would have to go back and pull up logs from his predictions on those dates to see if they correspond, or if they were taken out of context.

We are also talking about 4-5 years ago.

If I wanted to know where the mkt was headed in the next 2-4 months, I would focus on his daily emails.

Last night's email said "The market on a super-short-term basis(today) can pull back some from the open, and close down."

We opened higher by 150 points today, then dropped that 150 points, plus antother 120 points on top of it. A 270 point swing from the open to the bottom. Pretty impressive call. That was simply based on stochastics being overbought.

He also says a "multi-week" rally begins Tuesday.

Well, we know last week when he said we would crash for a week, that we dropped 11%.

If we are on the cusp of a "multi-week" rally, I am expecting at least those returns yet again.

I loaded long today, betting he is correct.

I bought 2x mkt related etfs--whatever the mkt does, they do twice as much, and added to my gold position, already up 35% in the last four days.

He also said that gold has bottomed here, also due for a bounce up.

[techboy]

Just loaded into the mkt long, expecting a multi-week violent rally to begin on Tuesday fwiw, per McHugh.

Dow down 60 right now.

What is a "violent" rally? Which index will you use to determine if the market is doing so? I hope it's not the Dow, because as you commented on peripherally earlier, it's a pretty lousy index.

[McD5]

What is a "violent" rally? Which index will you use to determine if the market is doing so? I hope it's not the Dow, because as you commented on peripherally earlier, it's a pretty lousy index.

"Violent" by my definition is a sharp move of 10% or higher.

I am holding 2x ets....so either 20% up or down for me.

I am utilizing the security symbols MVV and SSO to achieve this.

MVV is 2x the midcap index.

SSO is 2x the S&P 500 index.

For regular investors.....1x is enough. And that can be accomplished a number of ways.

QQQQ, DIA, SPY.....many others.

For gold.....I am using GLD. A 1x etf.

[PeterMP]

If those are taken from safehaven.com? and not his recommendations, I wouldn't give them any merit.

I would have to go back and pull up logs from his predictions on those dates to see if they correspond, or if they were taken out of context.

We are also talking about 4-5 years ago.

If I wanted to know where the mkt was headed in the next 2-4 months, I would focus on his daily emails.

Those are his ALL from his archives on his page. In addition, the thing about gold getting to $1300 in 2008 is also in his archives in a March edition. He writes for safehaven.

Why would he write something there and then put something else in his e-mail?

I'll also LOVE the Sept. oil thing. Every week. 'Getting ready to rally.'

Or this from Nov. 7th of this year:

"We believe this decline is a short-term event, has further to go, and will likely complete by the end of November,

and will be the bottom of wave a-down, the end of the first phase of this devastating Bear Market. In

fact, Friday’s rally was expected, the start of wave {2} up within wave 5 down of e down of a-down.

Friday’s rally was annotated in Thursday night’s newsletter charts. But to follow will be a nasty wave

{3} down, and yet another downleg, wave {5} down of 5 down later this month."

On Nov 7th, the DIJA closed at 8943. On the month, it closed at 8829. Just over 100 points. That's a really "nasty wave down" and downleg.

How about this from Oct 17th:

"The triangle scenario suggests we should see a major plunge starting at completion of the pattern, likely by Wednesday of next week +/- a day."

The triangle pattern (top) should complete at the coming phi mate turn date, to be followed by a 2,000 point plunge. Wave 4’s symmetrical triangle is a pattern that requires a series of volatile reversing waves, like we have seen so far this week. The first leg up of the triangle — wave {a} up, was the historic rally Monday and Tuesday. The second of five waves, wave {b} down, was Wednesday’s sharp sell-off. The third wave, {c} up, was Thursday’s rally into Friday afternoon. The fourth wave, {d} down, started Friday afternoon, a 429 point, 4,6 percent drop. Once that completes Monday, we should see the final wave up, wave {e} up to 4’s top — then stocks crash. That decline could be 2,000 points +/-."

On the 17th, the close was 8852.22. Wed. would have been the 22nd. The close the 23d 8691.25 (I'll give him the +/- a day). So over the week we were down, but I don't think you'd call that a "major plunge" and certainly didn't lead to a 2,000 point drop.

Here's his report from Oct. 22nd:

"This all means if in fact this is a symmetrical triangle wave 4, as we strongly suspect, there will be an approximate 2,000 point crash from the point of wave {e}’s top. That should start within a day or two. We can now estimate that the downside target should be somewhere between 6,700 and 7,100, depending upon how high wave {e} goes. If {e} stops at the upper boundary of the triangle, that would be around 9,000, meaning the crash should take prices down to 7,000ish."

Still waiting on that 2,000 point drop.

The guy is ROOTING for an economic collapse. He's predicting it every reasonable chance he gets. I can look at a chart and say, 'Here, he'll have called for a major down turn.'

Are you REALLY saying that NOBODY will bet against this guy?

If you want the action, I'll take it. It can't be day-to-day. Something like 2 week periods.

Where are gold and oil going to be in 2-4 weeks based on what he says?

[techboy]

Sit back, and just see if this gentleman doesn't continue batting 100%.

And, as outrageous as this may sound, I have yet to see this particular gentleman ever wrong.....not on even one single prediction.

He's not even batting 100% today.

Last night's email said "The market on a super-short-term basis(today) can pull back some from the open, and close down."

We opened higher by 150 points today, then dropped that 150 points, plus antother 120 points on top of it. A 270 point swing from the open to the bottom. Pretty impressive call. That was simply based on stochastics being overbought.

Emphasis mine.

It might have looked impressive (to you) at 2:43, but...

Wall Street rebounds after banks report big losses

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 68.73, or 0.84 percent, to 8,281.22. The Dow was down 103 points in early afternoon; on Thursday, it recovered from a 205-point loss to close up 12.35.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 6.38, or 0.76 percent, to 850.12, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 17.49, or 1.16 percent, to 1,529.33.

Oops.

[PeterMP]

He's not even batting 100% today.

Emphasis mine.

It might have looked impressive (to you) at 2:43, but...

Wall Street rebounds after banks report big losses

Oops.

I honestly don't even know how he got started.

How do you predict EVERY SINGLE week for a year, except for one, that during the next 12 weeks the market is most likely to decline or substantially decline in a period of time the market actually did pretty good, leave those predictions (links to the pdfs containing them) on your website, and have anybody believe you are credibile (beyond the whole Elliot wave thing)?

I didn't even keep looking. I started w/ his first one and gave up after covering a year.

It seems like some point in time (less than a year), you'd say, 'Well, I should stop. Clearly, there is a variable I'm not accounting for.'

[McD5]

He's not even batting 100% today.

Emphasis mine.

It might have looked impressive (to you) at 2:43, but...

Wall Street rebounds after banks report big losses

Oops.

This whole "emphasis mine" thing doesn't seem to be working out so well. I might consider changing it.

If you scroll back a page, post 240, you will see where I loaded my acct totally long, in anticipation of another big move next week.

I did that based upon McHugh's prediction that the market was going to drop from the open today.....150 points green, to 120 pts red....a 270 pt swing in two hours, that would afford people the opportunity to enter the long side for a big rally starting next Tuesday. Those who are unfortunately invested in mutual funds that only price once a day are not afforded such a luxury....another downside to funds as opposed to etfs.

Some people bought the market high at the open this morning, others who could read charts, or who had read McHugh, waited for the market to pull back to load long for next week's rally.

With the day low obviously in and holding.....based on the 60 minute moving average on the transportation index, it was a pretty clear sign that the rally was starting.

From my chart reading, and the knowledge that another big McHugh move is predicted to start Tuesday.....I bought in with the mkt down 60 pts, and we closed pretty postively.

Don't confuse his statement this morning that on a super-short-term basis(today) "the market could pull back and close down today" as anything but a heads up that short-term stochastics pointed to a pullback today from a sharp upside open, as an opportunity to get long for a very big move next week.

It worked well.

His intention...or my intention in posting it wasn't to abandon stocks before a huge move up next week......it was to not chase stocks at the open--that there would be another window to get in. Or, to sell stocks at the open that were up big, to only reload later. I did sell a small position I had in MVV that was in good profit at the open...and bought back 4x as much later at lower prices.

His main calls consistently remain in force--a multi-week rally beginning on Tuesday. Now if the market moves up something insane....like 1,500 points in two days for example, he will give daily updates that will show where the expected top is. It could be that due to such a big move up, that the rally may only last ten days. He will let everyone know where a good exit point is via the nightly updates.

His next update won't be until Sunday afternoon.....the weekend update, that will consist of 40 pages or so, with charts on everything going foward. All major indices, oil and gold. If interested, you can see every indicator that he is looking at, and exact targets.

[McD5]

Those are his ALL from his archives on his page. In addition, the thing about gold getting to $1300 in 2008 is also in his archives in a March edition. He writes for safehaven.

Why would he write something there and then put something else in his e-mail?

I do not read safehaven, and from reading about his response to that site that was trying to get viewers by bashing him, it is not where he makes his predictions. His calls are cleanly packaged into an email, consisting of 3-4 paragraphs a night.

Or this from Nov. 7th of this year:

"We believe this decline is a short-term event, has further to go, and will likely complete by the end of November,

and will be the bottom of wave a-down, the end of the first phase of this devastating Bear Market. In

fact, Friday’s rally was expected, the start of wave {2} up within wave 5 down of e down of a-down.

Friday’s rally was annotated in Thursday night’s newsletter charts. But to follow will be a nasty wave

{3} down, and yet another downleg, wave {5} down of 5 down later this month."

On Nov 7th, the DIJA closed at 8943. On the month, it closed at 8829. Just over 100 points. That's a really "nasty wave down" and downleg.

You are forgetting the fact that he called the exact beginning of that drop down to the exact date, a phi date. The drop was over 3,000 points in ten days alone. No one else on earth predicted anything of the sort--all based on technical research.

He said the minimum downside target would be 7,500 on that move. People though he was insane. The dow then hit the 7,452 level.

3 weeks prior to hitting that 7,452 level, he also gave the exact date the selloff would end....another phi date....saying that the mkt would astonishinly go up 1,000 pts on that day, totally reversing weeks of straight selling.

The market went up 950 pts that day. One of my biggest profit days in my career. I believe it was also the second single biggest up day in the history of the entire market.

The guy is ROOTING for an economic collapse. He's predicting it every reasonable chance he gets. I can look at a chart and say, 'Here, he'll have called for a major down turn.'

He isn't rooting for any collapse. His prediction now is for a multi-week rally. Certainly not bearish. In addition, he recently went to Congress during the bailout to consult against it.....and to suggest that just returning a large portion of everyone's past 8 years in taxes would be a better solution. That was too much for Congress to wrap their heads around.:mad:

Are you REALLY saying that NOBODY will bet against this guy?

If you want the action, I'll take it. It can't be day-to-day. Something like 2 week periods.

Where are gold and oil going to be in 2-4 weeks based on what he says?

The last thing you want to do is to bet against this guy. I noted in this thread Monday that I had just bought some gold based upon his, and my technical research for a short-term move up.

Even with the mkt down 11% at the worst point this week, and nearly every sector taking serious hits, gold predictably went straight up. The single best performing sector of the entire market for the week. I believe in time you will recognize that this isn't based on luck, nor on voodoo.

I would suggest just sitting back and reading his daily reports, and I will try to add any helpful commentary. I really believe you will learn a ton that will help you financially in the present, and the future.

[McD5]

And for anyone interested, regarding lunar trading, and the effects of the moon on the stock market, here is a brief article from Harvard and The University of Michigan supporting that finding.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1748325/posts

"We find strong lunar cycle effects in stock returns," say University of Michigan Business School professors Ilia D. Dichev and Troy D. Janes in a research report. "Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive," they report.

They gathered data on major U.S. stock markets over the past 100 years, and on the markets of 24 other nations going back 30 years.

"Taken as a whole, this evidence is consistent with popular beliefs that lunar cycles affect human behavior," the researchers concluded.

The Harvard Business Review, reporting the research in its current issue, says that while these findings "are a bit off the beaten path, they're the product of rigorous research."

Emphasis Harvard and market timing?

If anyone is interested, I can explain it in easy terms. It is a pattern that I have seen repeated over and over again, month in and month out. And it is pretty easy to profit from.