Investments

[techboy]

I cannot find one single day, one single call, one single anything that he has been wrong on. And that is in 16 mths of following his calls every single day of my life.

Robert McHugh: Caution Is Warranted (Last Updated 11/7/08). An excerpt:

As suggested by a reader, we evaluate here the weekly commentary of Robert McHugh, Ph.D., at Safe Haven since February 2004 (the earliest we can find). Robert McHugh is president of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania "dedicated to the preservation of capital in turbulent economic times, while offering conservative and aggressive investment strategies in prosperous times." The chart below extracts those highlights from his commentary most indicative of the direction of the overall stock market and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 5, 21, 63 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those the market subsequently proves right (wrong). We conclude that:

Robert McHugh has consistently been pessimistic about long-term prospects for stocks. He is critical of the "Master Planners" of monetary supply (the Federal Reserve) and often blames their "Plunge Protection Team" for the otherwise inexplicable strength of U.S. equities over the past few years.

He relies on some fundamental (money supply) but mostly technical analysis to forecast the stock market. He uses Elliott Wave analysis, Fibonacci numbers/ratios and Hindenburg Omens as indicators of major stock market turns. However, for trading, he relies on "our key trend-finder indicators, the Purchasing Power Indicators and the Stochastic signals."

His commentary regarding the stock market became less regular and less direct in early 2005, perhaps in conjunction with initiating a paid advisory service.

Based on subsequent stock market performance and our judgments about his forecasts for overall stock market direction, Robert McHugh has been right 36% of the time, a poor accuracy rate. His forecast sample size is moderate, as is our confidence in this conclusion.

In summary, Robert McHugh's technical methods and focus on money supply have resulted in poor stock market forecasting accuracy since early 2004. Confidence in this conclusion is moderate.

Emphasis mine. There's a chart below that with specific calls made by Dr. McHugh and the market's results. Many of them are wrong. Even if you accept Dr. McHugh's rebuttal (also in that article), he's still wrong at least 20% of the time.

Of course, I find the idea of rating "gurus" a little silly, given that I don't think any of them do anything beyond what random chance would occasionally allow, but it's certain that he's not 100% right all the time.

[McD5]

Robert McHugh: Caution Is Warranted (Last Updated 11/7/08). An excerpt:

Emphasis mine. There's a chart below that with specific calls made by Dr. McHugh and the market's results. Many of them are wrong. Even if you accept Dr. McHugh's rebuttal (also in that article), he's still wrong at least 20% of the time.

Of course, I find the idea of rating "gurus" a little silly, given that I don't think any of them do anything beyond what random chance would occasionally allow, but it's certain that he's not 100% right all the time.

Yeah....that has been on the inet for some time. Not like it is some big find.

The question really is......who is this advisor group, what are their intentions.......and what are they smoking?

I posted a link here earlier to the world's largest daytrading site. It is comprised of regular people, several market makers, professional money managers, hedge fund managers.....all types.

Everyone looked at that report for a week or so......then matched it up agaisnt McHugh....and came to the conclusion that not only were they insanely incorrect, but that they had an axe to grind. If you look at how they do the report, it is weak to say the least.

Example......he calls the mkt straight down like he did a week ago. The market immediately drops 11% in one week. He then says the decline is over in a following report.

They come back a mth later after that market call, and the market is now down only 4% from his call. They incorrectly assume that the timing wasn't incredible, instead of what really happened--11% straight down.

Even the black box traders there, the most scientific, computer based, all acknowledge that at the very least.....he is on a roll like no one has ever seen....and none of them even consider trading against him.

I am not sure who those people are. Do they rate movies too? Maybe that is some cfp group......or some buy and hold mutual fund subsidiary.

I really don't know. I do know they are incorrect.

[PeterMP]

Yeah....that has been on the inet for some time. Not like it is some big find.

The question really is......who is this advisor group, what are their intentions.......and what are they smoking?

I posted a link here earlier to the world's largest daytrading site. It is comprised of regular people, several market makers, professional money managers, hedge fund managers.....all types.

Everyone looked at that report for a week or so......then matched it up agaisnt McHugh....and came to the conclusion that not only were they insanely incorrect, but that they had an axe to grind. If you look at how they do the report, it is weak to say the least.

Example......he calls the mkt straight down like he did a week ago. The market immediately drops 11% in one week. He then says the decline is over in a following report.

They come back a mth later after that market call, and the market is now down only 4% from his call. They incorrectly assume that the timing wasn't incredible, instead of what really happened--11% straight down.

Even the black box traders there, the most scientific, computer based, all acknowledge that at the very least.....he is on a roll like no one has ever seen....and none of them even consider trading against him.

I am not sure who those people are. Do they rate movies too? Maybe that is some cfp group......or some buy and hold mutual fund subsidiary.

I really don't know. I do know they are incorrect.

Can you give an example from in their time line that they did that?

It looks in their chart they've given the 5, 21, and 63 day returns.

"To clarify your proposition, you hold that the results of four trades in 2007 completely refute the assessment of 93 of your commentaries with respect to the outlook for the U.S. stock market from the past three and one half years. This proposition is unreasonable, and excluding data from a study based on it is unsound. Assuming that your four trades are independent, and you have no losing trades, then the capital applied to all four has a cumulative return of about 630% so far in 2007. Such a return applied to a substantial initial investment would indeed be extraordinary. Many investors would be interested in an independent assessment of the reliability of such a return.

If you choose to make publicly available an historical sample of your PPI and DP/SP indicators (with clear definitions) large enough to support reasonably reliable inference, we will conduct and present the results of an analysis, similar in nature to those in our blog entries of 8/13/07 and 6/14/07 and our review of Mark Hulbert's sentiment indicator."

:rotflmao:

[McD5]

His phi dates are based on the number phi, which is some what like pi. It is believed to have some sort of significance based on the natural world like pi does on the geometric world.

Why that would extend to the markets is anybody's guess (assuming it actually does)?

Why it would continue to after it was known that it did and people were using it to make money would (i.e. the system should adjust) would essentially be supernatural in nature.

The nice thing about his site is that he archives all past daily reports, so there is accountability for past predictions.

On the front page of his website, you can see his last two phi date calls:

The example I gave you earlier.....in a little more detail:

He said the market would crash beginning exactly on Septemeber 29th. I will post a daily report from any of the 15 days prior, as he kept talking specifically about that exact coming date.

On that date, the DJIA began to crash with amazing velocity. 10 days later, the market was down a total of 3,300 points.

His last phi date was calling the mkt bottom of the year, to the exact date....predicting a 1k pt day up.....we closed up north of 950.

Aside from Elliott wave, fibonacci sequences, stochastics and a bunch of other normal indicators.....I am certain that he also follow lunar cycles.

For those that don't know......there is a school of thought out there regarding lunar cycles, their impact on tides, and if those tides move the stock market, as they move other things on earth.

There is strong research to suggest that they do, as crazy as I first believed that sounded.

Although he doesn't mention them.....many of his phi dates correspond to either the full or new moon.

Here is his site:

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

[PeterMP]

The nice thing about his site is that he archives all past daily reports, so there is accountability for past predictions.

On the front page of his website, you can see his last two phi date calls:

The example I gave you earlier.....in a little more detail:

He said the market would crash beginning exactly on Septemeber 29th. I will post a daily report from any of the 15 days prior, as he kept talking specifically about that exact coming date.

On that date, the DJIA began to crash with amazing velocity. 10 days later, the market was down a total of 3,300 points.

His last phi date was calling the mkt bottom of the year, to the exact date....predicting a 1k pt day up.....we closed up north of 950.

Aside from Elliott wave, fibonacci sequences, stochastics and a bunch of other normal indicators.....I am certain that he also follow lunar cycles.

For those that don't know......there is a school of thought out there regarding lunar cycles, their impact on tides, and if those tides move the stock market, as they move other things on earth.

There is strong research to suggest that they do, as crazy as I first believed that sounded.

Although he doesn't mention them.....many of his phi dates correspond to either the full or new moon.

Here is his site:

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

So in other words you can't point to single case in their analysis that they are wrong since it ends in July of 08?

[McD5]

Can you give an example from in their time line that they did that?

It looks in their chart they've given the 5, 21, and 63 day returns.

"To clarify your proposition, you hold that the results of four trades in 2007 completely refute the assessment of 93 of your commentaries with respect to the outlook for the U.S. stock market from the past three and one half years. This proposition is unreasonable, and excluding data from a study based on it is unsound. Assuming that your four trades are independent, and you have no losing trades, then the capital applied to all four has a cumulative return of about 630% so far in 2007. Such a return applied to a substantial initial investment would indeed be extraordinary. Many investors would be interested in an independent assessment of the reliability of such a return.

If you choose to make publicly available an historical sample of your PPI and DP/SP indicators (with clear definitions) large enough to support reasonably reliable inference, we will conduct and present the results of an analysis, similar in nature to those in our blog entries of 8/13/07 and 6/14/07 and our review of Mark Hulbert's sentiment indicator."

:rotflmao:

Yes.....if you read that entire page, you can see that they interpreted some things he said on some other site, and believed they were market calls.....as opposed to actually looking at his market calls.

Then you see where they made some retractions.....etc.

Not sure what their agenda was......but obviously hokey research.

[PeterMP]

The nice thing about his site is that he archives all past daily reports, so there is accountability for past predictions.

I need a subscription to see his archives. You'd think he could make things availible for free out at like 6 months ago.

And, surprisingly, the newsletter is as close to free as possible. The first month is free, requires no credit card, and doesn't send you junk mail. After that, it is roughly $10 a month. You talk about refreshing.

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/register.asp

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I'm confused (you can get a 2 year subscription for $449).

[PeterMP]

Yes.....if you read that entire page, you can see that they interpreted some things he said on some other site, and believed they were market calls.....as opposed to actually looking at his market calls.

Then you see where they made some retractions.....etc.

Not sure what their agenda was......but obviously hokey research.

Looks like to me they took fairly straight forward comments from a web site that they had free access to and graded them (vs. paying him $449 for two years). Looked at his response and credibily went back and looked over their analysis again and even after his response and that 2nd check found he is still wrong a lot.

[McD5]

Looks like to me they took fairly straight forward comments from a web site that they had free access to and graded them (vs. paying him $449 for two years). Looked at his response and credibily went back and looked over their analysis again and even after his response and that 2nd check found he is still wrong a lot.

Nah....first, two things.

He has a free, thirty day trial via email reports, usually written at 11 pm in the evening, calling the mkts ahead of tomorrow's events.

After that trial expires....he offers a $10/mth susbcription....6 mths or so in length.

Edit: If anyone wants to......they can actually just use a different email address every thirty days, and never get charged. I know many people that do it.

Secondly, they didn't take his market calls from his market calls.

They took some comments from him on an entirely different topic from another site......and called them his market calls.

Then they made some retractions.....etc.

Hokey research to say the least. I am not sure if they are just trying to become famous......draw attention to their site, or whatever.....but anyone who has followed his calls has dismissed them.

[McD5]

So in other words you can't point to single case in their analysis that they are wrong since it ends in July of 08?

If I wanted to take twelve hours to shoot down each one of their charges one by one, by posting what they said....what he really said.....what then happened.....what they then reported.....I could.

I really have no desire to take all the time to do that. There is no benefit.

I could think of about thirty other things I could be doing besides that.

I can tell you that anyone that follows his picks, finds their claims to be absurd.

You will only be able to make an accurate assessment by what you see with your own eyes....over time.

[Slateman]

For a short-term investment, CDs are wonderful (as long as you know you won't need the money for a particular term). If you're looking at a longer period, consider a "CD ladder", where you buy different terms so that some of the money is always coming available. For information on the best CD rates currently available, this thread at FatWallet Finance can be a useful resource just check the Quick Summary, which is often updated, including with other sites that have more info).

What kind of time frame are we talking about? What kind of goals do you have for this money?

For this CD, I was thinking 9 months. Basically, I'm gonna dump my entire savings into a CD for the deployment. I get back in November. I do it March and it should be good, right?

Or do they penalize you if you go over the set time?

[PeterMP]

Nah....first, two things.

He has a free, thirty day trial via email reports, usually written at 11 pm in the evening, calling the mkts ahead of tomorrow's events.

After that trial expires....he offers a $10/mth susbcription....6 mths or so in length.

Edit: If anyone wants to......they can actually just use a different email address every thirty days, and never get charged. I know many people that do it.

Secondly, they didn't take his market calls from his market calls.

They took some comments from him on an entirely different topic from another site......and called them his market calls.

Then they made some retractions.....etc.

Hokey research to say the least. I am not sure if they are just trying to become famous......draw attention to their site, or whatever.....but anyone who has followed his calls has dismissed them.

Are you saying he's not going to charge me $15.95 for on day or $49 for a month to look at his archives?

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/register.asp

Have you even looked at his archives?

Are you claiming that he didn't say that "June 15th 2004 looks like the next major turn date and it could be a bottom. Not "the" bottom, but "a" bottom. This decline is going to surprise. Extreme caution is warranted."

on 3/28/2004 (note that June 15th the DJIA was higher than the day he said it and was higher than May 15th and July 15th (not much of a bottom even if it only "a" bottom), and of course we know that there was a slight decline in 2004, but the market for the year finished up for the year and was even up compared to 3/28/2004) or does that not represent a "market call"?

It seems what you've run into is guy that has been calling for a severe down turn in the market for a while (at least going back to 2004), and you've hit him in a period where he's right as oppossed to 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Oh this one is even better:

5/9/04: "expect a panic, fear-driven mass exodus during a day or two of selling some time over the next six weeks."

5-9 appears to be a day the market was closed (a Sunday?). On 5-7 the market closed at 10,117.34. The low close for the period is 9,906.91 on 5-17 (a Monday) (it was actually up on the day- stocks had moved down over the weekend). Then there's a nice recovery through June. There's a pretty big single day drop would be July 1 (almost 200 points), but by then the market was 10,334.16 for its close.

[McD5]

Are you saying he's not going to charge me $15.95 for on day or $49 for a month to look at his archives?

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/register.asp

Have you even looked at his archives?

Are you claiming that he didn't say that "June 15th 2004 looks like the next major turn date and it could be a bottom. Not "the" bottom, but "a" bottom. This decline is going to surprise. Extreme caution is warranted."

on 3/28/2004 (note that June 15th the DJIA was higher than the day he said it and was higher than May 15th and July 15th (not much of a bottom even if it only "a" bottom), and of course we know that there was a slight decline in 2004, but the market for the year finished up for the year and was even up compared to 3/28/2004) or does that not represent a "market call"?

It seems what you've run into is guy that has been calling for a severe down turn in the market for a while (at least going back to 2004), and you've hit him in a period where he's right as oppossed to 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Oh this one is even better:

5/9/04: "expect a panic, fear-driven mass exodus during a day or two of selling some time over the next six weeks."

5-9 appears to be a day the market was closed (a Sunday?). On 5-7 the market closed at 10,117.34. The low close for the period is 9,906.91 on 5-17 (a Monday) (it was actually up on the day- stocks had moved down over the weekend). Then there's a nice recovery through June. There's a pretty big single day drop would be July 1 (almost 200 points), but by then the market was 10,334.16 for its close.

No....if you just sign up for the free trial....no c card needed, you can see the archives.

I am not sure where you got those statements above......although I haven't taken the time to research his archives on those particular dates yet.

If they are quoted on that website that was trying to bash him, who in their own words said that their confidence in their findings was "moderate", I wouldn't hang my hat on that.

With your analytical mind......you might enjoy signing up for the free trial, and reading the daily summary reports yourself. It is there that he tells you exactly what he is looking at, and basing his decisions on.

[techboy]

For this CD, I was thinking 9 months. Basically, I'm gonna dump my entire savings into a CD for the deployment. I get back in November. I do it March and it should be good, right?

Or do they penalize you if you go over the set time?

No, they don't penalize you, but many banks will automatically roll you over into another CD of the same time period (at their current rates) if you don't withdraw the money. Just make sure you pick the right time period, and don't forget to withdraw the money, and you're good to go.

For that short a time, I'd say that CDs are definitely the way to go, if you won't need the money sooner than those 9 months. It'll pay a little higher than a money market (your reward for tying up the money instead of keeping it liquid), and you'll have it back when you want it. For that short a time frame, even bonds aren't a good idea because they can fluctuate (assuming you don't want to risk that). Check the thread I linked for the best rates.

[Slateman]

Ummm . . . link? Which one?

[techboy]

I really don't know. I do know they are incorrect.

Maybe so. I don't really care because, as I said, I find the very concept of "guru analysis" to be largely a waste of time.

What I do know, though, is that even if you ignore their entire analysis as totally wrong (and I've seen no reason to do so), and completely accept his rebutting claim that he is right 80% of the time on buy and sell signals (and I see no reason to do that either), that still means he's wrong 20% of the time.

That's a best case scenario, straight from the horse's mouth.

He is not, as you said, right 100% of the time. That much is clear.

For those that don't know......there is a school of thought out there regarding lunar cycles, their impact on tides, and if those tides move the stock market, as they move other things on earth.

Uh, no. Correlation is not causality. Unless you've got a convincing story to explain this supposed link, I don't care how well things might match up.

[techboy]

Ummm . . . link? Which one?

This thread at FatWallet Finance. It's long, but the first post has a constantly updated Quick Summary with all the best rates for different maturities. It also has links to other sites with rates.

[PeterMP]

No....if you just sign up for the free trial....no c card needed, you can see the archives.

I am not sure where you got those statements above......although I haven't taken the time to research his archives on those particular dates yet.

If they are quoted on that website that was trying to bash him, who in their own words said that their confidence in their findings was "moderate", I wouldn't hang my hat on that.

With your analytical mind......you might enjoy signing up for the free trial, and reading the daily summary reports yourself. It is there that he tells you exactly what he is looking at, and basing his decisions on.

Uhh, I would, but you know that link I keep giving that's what I get to subscribe. One month for $49.00- not free. Here let's see:

Your link:

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

Click subscribe today:

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/register.asp

(no free trial)

They are on that site, but they give you the links to the other sites from where he is actually doing the analysis Here's a good one:

http://safehaven.com/article-1546.htm

"Bearish Topping Patterns are all over the place. Not much has changed there and we await the forecasted deep declines these pictures portend. I wouldn't be surprised if bottoms come in stair-step fashion over a period of many months - a bunch of slow-motion crashes. "

He's right on- except it is from May 16, 2004. Well, it came. He just waited A LONG TIME. I wonder how much money he cost for those 2 and 1/2 years or so while he waited.

Oh and you don't even have to go that far back. Here's another good one:

"Gold is rising sharply once again, hitting a new all time high this week of 995.20. We now believe it could hit 1,300 by late 2008. Before that, there will be corrections, buying opportunities. Gold recently corrected, but is rising again."

http://safehaven.com/article-9651.htm

March 9, 2008. Where'd gold end the year? Under 850?

[Slateman]

Don't I have to get a CD through my bank? I'm either going to get one through Navy Fed or USAA

[techboy]

Don't I have to get a CD through my bank? I'm either going to get one through Navy Fed or USAA

You can, but any bank will be happy to take your money.

[PeterMP]

Maybe so. I don't really care because, as I said, I find the very concept of "guru analysis" to be largely a waste of time.

What I do know, though, is that even if you ignore their entire analysis as totally wrong (and I've seen no reason to do so), and completely accept his rebutting claim that he is right 80% of the time on buy and sell signals (and I see no reason to do that either), that still means he's wrong 20% of the time.

That's a best case scenario, straight from the horse's mouth.

He is not, as you said, right 100% of the time. That much is clear.

Uh, no. Correlation is not causality. Unless you've got a convincing story to explain this supposed link, I don't care how well things might match up.

NOW, I know why there has been all tha talk around recently about a new ice age. It is because of the Somalia pirates.

[techboy]

NOW, I know why there has been all tha talk around recently about a new ice age. It is because of the Somalia pirates.

I was saving that one. :mad:

(I thought of that about 10 seconds after I hit send. I thought about going back and editing that comment in, but figured I'd use it in my next response. )

[difleha]

I invest in real estate Tax sales. You make 3% per quarter till the owner pays the bill. If they do not pay up in a year the property is yours. It ties your money up, but it is a good return.

I bought 37 properties at last years tax sale auction for $140,000.

Are you talking about tax liens?

[McD5]

Uhh, I would, but you know that link I keep giving that's what I get to subscribe. One month for $49.00- not free. Here let's see:

Your link:

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

Click subscribe today:

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/register.asp

(no free trial)

They are on that site, but they give you the links to the other sites from where he is actually doing the analysis Here's a good one:

http://safehaven.com/article-1546.htm

"Bearish Topping Patterns are all over the place. Not much has changed there and we await the forecasted deep declines these pictures portend. I wouldn't be surprised if bottoms come in stair-step fashion over a period of many months - a bunch of slow-motion crashes. "

He's right on- except it is from May 16, 2004. Well, it came. He just waited A LONG TIME. I wonder how much money he cost for those 2 and 1/2 years or so while he waited.

Oh and you don't even have to go that far back. Here's another good one:

"Gold is rising sharply once again, hitting a new all time high this week of 995.20. We now believe it could hit 1,300 by late 2008. Before that, there will be corrections, buying opportunities. Gold recently corrected, but is rising again."

http://safehaven.com/article-9651.htm

March 9, 2008. Where'd gold end the year? Under 850?

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

Top right corner.....there is a free trial link. No credit card required, and no spam email.

After that thirty days is up, he will ask you to renew for $10 per month.

I do know that after the first thirty days, you can just use a second email address and subscribe again for another free month. He isn't really a stickler for fees.

[illone]

You can buy a house and hire a managing company to bring in renters. Obviously they charge a fee, but it's worth it in the end if you can find the right property and have the renters make your monthly mortgage payment.

Then in 10 years you can pay cash for the M3;).