NFC Playoff Picture Through Week 13

[UofMSkinsFan]

Here are the playoff odds of the leading NFC teams based on Football Outsiders' analysis (explained here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php). I've also included the records, weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), remaining schedule and schedule difficulty for the bubble teams.

1. NYG (100%), 11-1

2. ARI (100%), 7-5

3. TB (94%), 9-3 (21.0% DVOA): @CAR @ATL SD OAK (14th hardest)

4. CAR (84%), 9-3 (16.1% DVOA): TB DEN @NYG @NO (2nd hardest)

5. ATL (64.7%), 8-4 (13.8% DVOA): @NO TB @MIN STL (18th hardest)

6. MIN (54.3%), 7-5 (5.6% DVOA): @DET @ARI ATL NYG (15th hardest)

7. GB (24.7%), 5-7 (14.0% DVOA): HOU @JAC @CHI DET (31st hardest)

8. CHI (22.2%), 6-6 (-1.5% DVOA): JAC NO GB @HOU (13th hardest)

9. DAL (20.9%), 8-4 (-2.7% DVOA): @PIT NYG BAL @PHI (1st hardest)

10. WAS (17.7%), 7-5 (6.6% DVOA): @BAL @CIN PHI @SF (12th hardest)

11. PHI (13.3%), 6-5-1 (29.3% DVOA): @NYG CLE @WAS DAL (8th hardest)

12. NO (4.3%), 6-6 (12.5% DVOA): ATL @CHI @DET CAR (19th hardest)

This past week was brutal to the Redskins playoff chances. Not only did they lose to the Giants, but Atlanta, Dallas, and Philly all won. We can't afford to lose any more games, and it sure would be nice to see NO beat ATL, HOU beat GB, JAC beat CHI, and PIT beat DAL.

Reminds me a lot of last year....and 2005.

It's also pretty annoying to see Arizona sitting pretty despite getting beat by the Skins and having the same record. Is there something the NFL could do to alleviate the unfair advantages/disadvantages of being in a particular division?

[Tom [Giants fan]]

Arizona is actually 3rd behind Tampa who has the tiebreaker right now over Carolina for the division lead. And Minnesota would be fourth as they are a division leader.

[terpskins10]

We really need to win out to secure our playoff spot. Baltimore is our toughest game left on the schedule and we need to take care of business.

[SkinsMaster88]

I see us in 4th place in the Wildcard race:

1. Carolina

2. Dallas

3. Atlanta

4. Washington

Note that I'm assuming the Vikings take the NFC North and the Bucs take the NFC South.

Green Bay might have an easy schedule, but I don't see a 9-7 team making the playoffs. I can easily see 1 or 2 10-6 teams getting shut out this year.

[BleedinBurgNGold]

We're in if we win out, obviously. But 10-6 could do it as well as long as we win both of our remaining NFC games. We would hold the Tiebreaker over the Falcons, assuming they go 500 the rest of the way. Also, I really believe the Cowpies will go 1-3. But even if they go 2-2 and end up 10-6, we would hold the Tiebreaker against them

[PokerPacker]

I see us in 4th place in the Wildcard race:

1. Carolina

2. Dallas

3. Atlanta

4. Washington

Note that I'm assuming the Vikings take the NFC North and the Bucs take the NFC South.

Green Bay might have an easy schedule, but I don't see a 9-7 team making the playoffs. I can easily see 1 or 2 10-6 teams getting shut out this year.

Look at their division and the games their rivals are playing. Minnesota's gotta play NY, ARI, and ATL. They'll probably lose two games in the final weeks.

The Bears gotta play GB again, who beat them 37-3 a few weeks ago, and they gotta play NO who have an excellent pass offense which will probably run all over the Bear's D.

[royallypwned]

We're in if we win out, obviously. But 10-6 could do it as well as long as we win both of our remaining NFC games. We would hold the Tiebreaker over the Falcons, assuming they go 500 the rest of the way. Also, I really believe the Cowpies will go 1-3. But even if they go 2-2 and end up 10-6, we would hold the Tiebreaker against them

Not so much. Not even the Cowboys control their own destiny, although the Panthers, Falcons, and Bucs ALL do. Dallas could win out and still miss the playoffs. It would be VERY unlikely, probably about a 1% chance, but it could still happen. That means the Skins obviously don't control their own destiny either.

[dswerdlw]

Looking at the schedule, I see Atlanta being our biggest competitor for the final wild card position. We've got to hope that NO and TB beat them. Dallas will probably go 2 and 2. If we go 3 and 1, and Atlanta loses 2, I think we get in.

[royallypwned]

Looking at the schedule, I see Atlanta being our biggest competitor for the final wild card position. We've got to hope that NO and TB beat them. Dallas will probably go 2 and 2. If we go 3 and 1, and Atlanta loses 2, I think we get in.

Even if the Cowboys and Falcons go 2-2 and the Skins go 3-1, it would not put the Skins in the playoffs without more help. Take a look at this thread:

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?t=273441

You can make up any scenario you want (predict W's and L's for every team) and it will update the playoff picture. Pretty neat.

[dswerdlw]

That yahoo playoff gizmo is great. Thanks. So, here's what I think is the best and most likely scenario for us to get in to the playoffs. Atlanta and Dallas both go 2-2. All of Atlanta's opponents are in the NFC, so it doesn't matter which teams they beat. One of the teams that Dallas loses to must be the Giants or the Eagles. If that happens, and we go 3-1 without losing to Philly or SF, then we're in.

The Falcons lose to the Bucs and the Saints or Vikings, while beating one of those teams and the Rams. Dallas loses to Pitt and the Giants, while beating the Ravens and the Eagles. We beat the Eagles, Bengals and 49ers, while losing to the Ravens. All this seems possible.

I find myself with a modicum of hope.

[UofMSkinsFan]

;5890187']Arizona is actually 3rd behind Tampa who has the tiebreaker right now over Carolina for the division lead. And Minnesota would be fourth as they are a division leader.

The teams are listed based on their likelihood of making the playoffs, not on their likely seeding. So according to this analysis, it's more likely for Tampa to miss the playoffs than for Arizona, despite the fact that Tampa has a better record. The same goes for Carolina, Atlanta, and Dallas. The reason, of course, is that Arizona plays in the NFC West (mumble...mumble).

[BleedinBurgNGold]

Not so much. Not even the Cowboys control their own destiny, although the Panthers, Falcons, and Bucs ALL do. Dallas could win out and still miss the playoffs. It would be VERY unlikely, probably about a 1% chance, but it could still happen. That means the Skins obviously don't control their own destiny either.

We only play one more team (the Ravens) with a plus 500 record. Assuming you all (Cowboys) go 2-2 with losses to the Steelers and Gmen and we go 3-1 with a loss to the Ravens, we jump you Via better conference record. 7-5 you 8-4 us. I dont think we will lose tp the Ravens though

[PennSkinsFanhR]

Here is where we rank the NFL teams ...

http://dcprosportsreport.com/?p=2039

There is only a month left in the regular season and the playoff scenarios are flying fast and furious. Only The World’s Most Prestigious Power Poll can make sense of it all. Lucky for you, it’s here.

01. New York Giants [11-1]: Wide receiver celebrates his team’s decisive win over a division rival by shooting himself in the leg. Only in the Big Apple, baby! [NC]

02. Tennessee Titans [11-1]: Has any 11-1 team ever gotten so little respect? [NC]

03. Pittsburgh Steelers [9-3]: The Steelers appear to be peaking at the right time. This is not the team you want to play in January. [+1]

[Rypien1191]

Here's how its going down:

1. NY Giants 14 2, 11 1 -- Philadelphia-W, @Dallas-W, Carolina-W, @Vikings-L

2. Tampa Bay 12 4 -- @Carolina-L, @Atlanta-W, San Diego-W, Oakland-W

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Arizona 10 6, 8 4 -- St Louis-W, Vikings-W, @Patriots-L, Seahawks-W

4. Minnesota 9 7, 7 5 -- @Detroit-W, @Arizona-L, Atlanta-W, NY Giants-L

5. Carolina 11 5, 7 5 -- Tampa Bay-W, Denver-W, @New York-L, @New Orleans-L

6. Redskins 10 6, 8 4 -- @Baltimore-L,@Cincinnati-W, Philadelphia-W, @San Francisco-W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the outside looking in...

7. Dallas 10 6, 7 5 -- @Pittsburgh-L, NY Giants-L, Baltimore-W, @Philadelphia-W

8. Atlanta 9 7 -- @New Orleans-L, Tampa Bay-L, @Minnesota-L, St. Louis-W

9. New Orleans 9 7, 6 6 -- Atlanta-W, @Chicago-L, @Detroit-W, Carolina-W

10. Philadelphia 7 9 1 -- @ NY Giants-L, Cleveland-W, @Washington-L, Dallas-L

We will lose this weekend but win the last 3 and get in based on better conference record than Dallas (after head to head, division, and common ties).

We will finish ahead of Atlanta (even if they get to 10-6, we will have a better conference record than them.) Ryan is good, but he's still a rookie QB and I can't see him finishing 3-1 against a rough schedule down the road.

Don't see anybody else making much noise. NO wont finish 4-0, neither will Chicago or GB.

The only thing that could hurt us this weekend is if Dallas beats Pitt AND we lose. That would be tough to overcome.

[Shilsu]

We will finish ahead of Atlanta (even if they get to 10-6, we will have a better conference record than them.) Ryan is good, but he's still a rookie QB and I can't see him finishing 3-1 against a rough schedule down the road.

New Orleans and Minnesota lost players to suspensions for the rest of the season. It doesn't hurt NO that bad, but BOTH of Minnesota's Pro Bowl DT's are now gone. With the league leader in rushing TD on Atlanta's side, this does not bode well for the Redskins if they can only go 10-6.

[88Comrade2000]

Even if the Cowboys and Falcons go 2-2 and the Skins go 3-1, it would not put the Skins in the playoffs without more help. Take a look at this thread:

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?t=273441

You can make up any scenario you want (predict W's and L's for every team) and it will update the playoff picture. Pretty neat.

The Skins can't lose against Philly and San Fran. One more NFC loss and we have no chance of playoffs.

[UofMSkinsFan]

Here's how its going down:

8. Atlanta 9 7 -- @New Orleans-L, Tampa Bay-L, @Minnesota-L, St. Louis-W

...

We will finish ahead of Atlanta (even if they get to 10-6, we will have a better conference record than them.) Ryan is good, but he's still a rookie QB and I can't see him finishing 3-1 against a rough schedule down the road.

I wish I could be that optimistic. I think Atlanta will win at least 2 more, maybe 3. Keep in mind that Minnesota's 2 best defensive lineman just got suspended.

[Rypien1191]

I wish I could be that optimistic. I think Atlanta will win at least 2 more, maybe 3. Keep in mind that Minnesota's 2 best defensive lineman just got suspended.

True, but Minny has been playing well as of late. Atlanta may win 2, but I'd be surprised if they win 3. I just can't see that team, which was so terrible last year, turning around to an 11-5 squad with a rookie Q in one year.

[BleedinBurgNGold]

The problem Atlanta has they ONLY have NFC Teams left. They almost have to win out