Are you jealous about the Saints having Brees?

[redman]

Rich Tandler's blog today made a comment that struck home to me:

A little side note here: Many Redskins fans look at Brees with envious eyes, wishing that the Skins had a young veteran quarterback who could pass for over 300 yards in a win and have it be nothing out of the ordinary. Perhaps, then, they might be well served to display a bit more patience with Jason Campbell. After three years and 27 starts for the Chargers he was mediocre and seemed to be regressing. The Chargers stuck with him, perhaps against their will—an extended holdout prevented Phillip Rivers from competing for the job—and they were rewarded with a breakout season in 2004, his fourth year in the NFL. Jason Campbell came into his fourth NFL season with 21 starts on his resume.

He's exactly right. Many of you on the East Coast may not have followed Brees' struggles during the first three years of his career, but it was not pretty out here. Every Monday he was destroyed by talk radio, holding back a team that had a young star in LT on it. He struggled badly, and he struggled enough so that his own team did some transactional gymnastics to draft a replacement QB in the first few picks of the 2004 draft, a pick that turned out to be Phillip Rivers.

Think about that for a second- there's no clearer way for a team to say that they've written you off as a starter and as a prospect than to spend a very high 1st round draft pick on your replacement, and the Chargers did that only three years after drafting Brees at the beginning of the 2nd round.

Here are Brees' numbers from those first few years:

Year  	Age  	Tm  	Pos  	G  	GS  	QBrec  	Cmp  	Att  	Cmp%  	Yds  	TD  	TD%  	Int  	Int%  	Lng  	Y/A  	AY/A  	Y/C  	Y/G  	Rate  	Sk  	Yds  	NY/A  	ANY/A  	Sk%
2001 	22 	SDG 		1 	0 		15 	27 	55.6 	221 	1 	3.7 	0 	0.0 	40 	8.2 	8.6 	14.7 	221.0 	94.8 	2 	12 	7.2 	7.6 	6.9
2002 	23 	SDG 	QB 	16 	16 	8-8-0 	320 	526 	60.8 	3284 	17 	3.2 	16 	3.0 	52 	6.2 	5.2 	10.3 	205.3 	76.9 	24 	180 	5.6 	4.6 	4.4
2003 	24 	SDG 	QB 	11 	11 	2-9-0 	205 	356 	57.6 	2108 	11 	3.1 	15 	4.2 	68 	5.9 	4.3 	10.3 	191.6 	67.5 	21 	178 	5.1 	3.6 	5.6

By comparison, here are Campbell's numbers to date:

Year  	Age  	Tm  	Pos  	G  	GS  	QBrec  	Cmp  	Att  	Cmp%  	Yds  	TD  	TD%  	Int  	Int%  	Lng  	Y/A  	AY/A  	Y/C  	Y/G  	Rate  	Sk  	Yds  	NY/A  	ANY/A  	Sk%
2006 	25 	WAS 	qb 	7 	7 	2-5-0 	110 	207 	53.1 	1297 	10 	4.8 	6 	2.9 	66 	6.3 	5.4 	11.8 	185.3 	76.5 	7 	55 	5.8 	5.0 	3.3
2007 	26 	WAS 	QB 	13 	13 	6-7-0 	250 	417 	60.0 	2700 	12 	2.9 	11 	2.6 	54 	6.5 	5.6 	10.8 	207.7 	77.6 	21 	110 	5.9 	5.1 	4.8

Am I predicting Campbell will turn into Brees? No, I have no way of saying that outright.

What I am saying, however, is that a very common error that is made with QB's is to give up on them too soon rather than too late. When you gripe about a player "already having had a chance to prove himself" in his third or fourth year, consider that successful (and healthy) QB's tend to have careers that span well over a decade nowadays, and up to 15 years or more. And when the light goes on, it can go on suddenly.

Just for fun, check out this player's early career numbers:

Year  	Age  	Tm  	Pos  	G  	GS  	QBrec  	Cmp  	Att  	Cmp%  	Yds  	TD  	TD%  	Int  	Int%  	Lng  	Y/A  	AY/A  	Y/C  	Y/G  	Rate  	Sk  	Yds  	NY/A  	ANY/A  	Sk%
19xx 	22 	XXX 	QB 	10 	6 	0-5-1 	87 	194 	44.8 	1126 	6 	3.1 	13 	6.7 	69 	5.8 	3.1 	12.9 	112.6 	46.0 	14 	129 	4.8 	2.3 	6.7
19xx 	23 	XXX 	QB 	11 	11 	3-8-0 	115 	237 	48.5 	1732 	8 	3.4 	13 	5.5 	75 	7.3 	5.2 	15.1 	157.5 	61.4 	12 	99 	6.6 	4.5 	4.8
19xx 	24 	XXX 	QB 	10 	9 	2-7-0 	106 	195 	54.4 	1396 	2 	1.0 	10 	5.1 	57 	7.2 	5.0 	13.2 	139.6 	59.3 	25 	197 	5.5 	3.5 	11.4
19xx 	25 	XXX 	QB 	14 	13 	5-8-0 	208 	359 	57.9 	2535 	14 	3.9 	15 	4.2 	81 	7.1 	5.6 	12.2 	181.1 	75.4 	39 	220 	5.8 	4.5 	9.8
19xx 	26 	XXX 		4 	4 	2-2-0 	69 	109 	63.3 	869 	4 	3.7 	6 	5.5 	67 	8.0 	5.9 	12.6 	217.3 	77.4 	10 	77 	6.7 	4.7 	8.4

Do you know who this player was? Would you be shocked to learn he ended up in the Hall of Fame, playing for the same team all along?

Some GM's hate drafting QB's with picks in the first three rounds because the position commands so much fan attention that they can't develop the player without pressure, first to put them onto the field, and ironically later to bench them or cut or trade them. In short, the fans' attention span tends to be too short to accommodate the requirements of what is, for my money, the most demanding position to play in all of professional team sports. Just look at how much slobbering there already is for Colt Brennan only a few months after drafting such a raw prospect!

Relax about Campbell. We've done him a series disservices, first by hiring Saunders, and now again by changing the offensive scheme one more time. He's even had different QB coaches, and God knows what they've been teaching him. Let him develop and quit acting like six-year olds with ADHD when it comes to QB development, making snap decisions based upon every performance.

Our QB depth chart is perfect. We have Campbell who we're trying to develop, and with a team with relatively low expectations though we hope we'll do better. We can take a year or two to see if the proverbial light goes on in the same system (and I sure do hope that Zorn gets at least two years with us, no matter what our record is this year). If that doesn't work out, we have Brennan waiting in the wings, and he should wait for two years as that length of time never hurt QB prospects who were far more NFL-ready than he is. And in between those guys we have a competent veteran in case of injury.

Again, relax and take the season in stride. We're building here. There's going to be a little mess. :logo:

[CRobi21]

No. He's got a turd on his cheek.

[#98QBKiller]

No. He's got a turd on his cheek.

:rotflmao:

Oh no you didn't go there!

[ciscofan]

I agree. Back in the day, they would never go through QB's the way they do now. Not to mention all successful QB's not only have been playing through the bad, but have had consistency from an offensive standpoint. JC deserves this year minimum. HOWEVER, I still feel that if he doesn't take any strides from last year despite a new offense, the QB competition should be left open next offseason.

[Guest sith lord]

Right now, I'm jealous of about every team in the league.

[Cooley4President]

Good post. QB is such a unique position because of the mental and physical requirements that go into the position, and the fact that there is SO much to learn and perfect means that often QBs take 2 or 3 years to reach their potential. There aren't many Peyton Mannings out there who can come in and compete in their first or second year. Couple that with all of the change around Campbell, and you could justify his mediocre start and realistically think he could turn it around sooner rather than later.

[hobbie8046]

I gave up on JC just this week...

Dan Fouts, btw.

[GibbsFactor]

Who's the HOF'er in your post?

[ciscofan]

If you look at McNabb's first few years, it wasn't too great either.

But they kept the same system and stuck with him.

[MartinC]

Good post and I agree with your central point that it is way too early to either make a judgement on Campbell or give up on him. However what I would say is that if we are to get the best out of Jason we need to build an offense around him which suits his strengths not try to force him into a system which he is not best suited to.

However Drew Brees as of today would be a perfect fit for the system Jim Zorn is trying to implement. Put him in a Redskins uniform and we instantly become a playoff team - not that I'm in anyway suggesting thats something we should try to make happen or is any in way realistic.

[ttr77]

Every time there is an uproar about JC, all kinds of posts seem to appear comparing the stats at the start of his career to the stats at the outset of current stars or hall-of-famers' careers. As if every QB that struggles eventually becomes great. Sorry, but there are far more QBs that have a bad start to their careers and never truly make it. Hell, one needs to look no further than our last 1st round QB. No one here can say with any certainty that JC is better at this point, or will ever be better, than Ramsey.

[MartinC]

If you look at McNabb's first few years, it wasn't too great either.

But they kept the same system and stuck with him.

The Eagles went 11-5 in McNabbs first full year as a starter (his second year) and he threw 23 TDs to 13 INTS - he has been consistently good since then with an overall career passer rating of just over 85.

I recall that even in his rookie year he showed clear signs of being a very good QB in the making.

I'm not giving up on JC - I think he has shown potential and deserves time with Zorn for them both to show what they can produce. However at this point in their careers McNabb was way ahead of where Jason is IMO.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

The Eagles went 11-5 in McNabbs first full year as a starter (his second year) and he threw 23 TDs to 13 INTS - he has been consistently good since then with an overall career passer rating of just over 85.

I recall that even in his rookie year he showed clear signs of being a very good QB in the making.

I'm not giving up on JC - I think he has shown potential and deserves time with Zorn for them both to show what they can produce. However at this point in their careers McNabb was way ahead of where Jason is IMO.

Well, JC was between 80 and 85 on Thursday night with 1 TD and no INTs...so that's not too far off. And this is his first game in the WCO, not just the first season that he's a full-time starter in it.

[2cents]

Actually, we could have had Brees a long time ago, but the Marty genious drafted Rod Gardner, kept Jeff George, and then said we could win with Tony Banks at QB. Talk about a big OUCH! What Gibbs could have done with Brees, heck maybe even Spurrier could have been decent with him, even though I doubt that. Even when Brees was a free agent we didn't even give him a look. Thanks Vinnie.

[ciscofan]

The Eagles went 11-5 in McNabbs first full year as a starter (his second year) and he threw 23 TDs to 13 INTS - he has been consistently good since then with an overall career passer rating of just over 85.

I recall that even in his rookie year he showed clear signs of being a very good QB in the making.

I'm not giving up on JC - I think he has shown potential and deserves time with Zorn for them both to show what they can produce. However at this point in their careers McNabb was way ahead of where Jason is IMO.

Look at McNabb's QB rating...60.1 his rookie year and 77.8 his second. It takes a team to go 11-5. You can't tell me they went 11-5 because McNabb was playing at a QB rating of 60.1.

Campbell was 76.5 the first year, which was only half the season, and 77.6 his first full year starting which he didn't finish to injury. He was 81.2 the other night. He seems on track to me.

[MartinC]

Look at McNabb's QB rating...60.1 his rookie year and 77.8 his second. It takes a team to go 11-5. You can't tell me they went 11-5 because McNabb was playing at a QB rating of 60.1.

Campbell was 76.5 the first year, which was only half the season, and 77.6 his first full year starting which he didn't finish to injury. He was 81.2 the other night. He seems on track to me.

QB rating is not an end - winning is kind of the point. Ratings give you a guide but personally I'm not all that hung up on those numbers.

Agree that it takes a team to win and its not all on Jason. McNabb was in a better situation in regards to the stability of the coaching staff and system etc but I still stand by my opinion that McNabb was way ahead of where Jason is at the same time in their careers.

Again thats not to say Jason can not or will not develop into a good NFL QB - not all QBs develop at the same rate.

[Taylor 36]

How are all the huge JC supporters going to act and respond if the guy shows very little to no improvement over the next seven games? How long is it supposed to take a QB with true upside to get the kinks out and start to show true development and progress? How many years do we have to wait until the Campbell apologists finally admit enough time has been given to him and he just doesn't have it?

I am not, BTW, a person that just says JC sucks. However, I'm a realist. I look around the league and see younger guys than Jason with little or no experience at this level picking up things remarkably faster than JC. Seeing that, any intelligent, inquisitive person has to at least silently ask him/herself why that is?

[Oldfan]

Redman, your argument is missing a premise. To say that we should stick with Campbell by singling out late bloomer Drew Brees requires that you draw a distinction between Campbell and other QBs considered failures as starters: Wuerful, Matthews, Ramsey, Shuler, Frerotte, and a very long list of QBs from the other 31 teams.

What distinguishes Jason from all those others who weren't given the kind of patience you want for Campbell?

Understand, I'm not arguing with your conclusion that we need to have more patience. I just don't think that you and Rich Tandler have made a sound argument for it.

[bikie]

I think you're spot on with the point of the coordinators... it's well known but doesn't seem like most fans really get how much that can hold a QB back... there is so little time to make your reads as a QB and any residual decision making is going to lead to bad things...

what bothers me most about JC is it seems all this criticism and change is developing really really bad habits.. a fear of making mistakes, staying in the pocket too long, locking into primary receivers, etc.. but I am confident we have the right person to fix that...

it took a while for our FO to learn you can't buy championships and I think this season will really hammer home the lesson of continuity, especially with young QBs...

[ciscofan]

QB rating is not an end - winning is kind of the point. Ratings give you a guide but personally I'm not all that hung up on those numbers.

Agree that it takes a team to win and its not all on Jason. McNabb was in a better situation in regards to the stability of the coaching staff and system etc but I still stand by my opinion that McNabb was way ahead of where Jason is at the same time in their careers.

Again thats not to say Jason can not or will not develop into a good NFL QB - not all QBs develop at the same rate.

I agree that all stats are telling of a situation, but his stats weren't impressive. I've never been a big fan of a QB's "winning percentage" because it takes a team. Kind of like Dan Marino. He never won the big one because he didn't have the supporting cast around him.

Look at Vince Young. People say, "All he does is win games." Wrong. He has a great offensive line, run game, and DEFENSE.

But like you said, McNabb was in a better position to be in the Campbell. We just have to be patient. Campell hasn't been given the best opportunity to win.

[redman]

Now that I'm back in front of a computer, let me respond to a few points:

1) Yes, the HoF'er is Dan Fouts.

2) I'm not comparing Campbell to McNabb because I think McNabb is an exceptional QB who too easily gets denigrated on this, a Redskins board. I think McNabb and Favre are two QB's who are among the least conventional West Coast Offense QB's you could come up with as their strengths are not really associated with traditional WCO QB's. If not for McNabb's numerous injuries, we'd be comparing those two guys in a lot more ways than that IMHO.

McNabb was very successful very early in his career. Again, that's too easily dismissed by some around here, but not many guys can claim that. I'm talking more about the more traditional and time consuming path of developing a QB that Campbell is on than I am about the guys who blossom immediately.

3) I agree that stats aren't an end-all, but they do shed light on some things and Brees' stats aren't an illusion as to how shaky he was his first few years in the league. In fact, if anything they suggest he was a better QB than most Chargers fans thought he was.

I'll respond to some other posts by quoting those posts.

[redman]

How are all the huge JC supporters going to act and respond if the guy shows very little to no improvement over the next seven games? How long is it supposed to take a QB with true upside to get the kinks out and start to show true development and progress? How many years do we have to wait until the Campbell apologists finally admit enough time has been given to him and he just doesn't have it?

I am not, BTW, a person that just says JC sucks. However, I'm a realist. I look around the league and see younger guys than Jason with little or no experience at this level picking up things remarkably faster than JC. Seeing that, any intelligent, inquisitive person has to at least silently ask him/herself why that is?

Who are all these "younger guys than Jason" around the league "with little or no experience at this level picking up things remarkably faster than JC"? I sure don't see many of them.

In fact, going back to the 2005 draft when Jason was picked I frankly don't see anyone who is head and shoulders above him thus far, with the exception of Derek Anderson and maybe Jay Cutler. Here's a list of the QB draftees since 2005 who are even starting for their teams:

Aaron Rodgers

Derek Anderson

Matt Cassel

Vince Young

Jay Cutler

Tarvaris Jackson

Jamarcus Russell

Trent Edwards

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco

Who is it out of this group that puts Campbell to shame? Some of these guys may prove to be very good or even great QB's - Matt Ryan, for example, showed some promise yesterday, and I happen to be a Cutler fan - but we won't know that without seeing more, and isn't that what we're talking about here? Even the most successful among them, Anderson, is constantly criticized as a one-trick pony who can only throw deep but who can't really run the overall offense . . . and by the way his team already drafted his replacement in Quinn.

Beyond that, assuming we just go ahead and write off Campbell, what's our alternative? Colt Brennan should not see the field for two years. He's got a LOT to work on, and I say that as someone who thinks that he showed a lot of promise during this preseason. Collins? He's shown less so far in Zorn's system than Campbell has and he's not our future at his age.

[redman]

Redman, your argument is missing a premise. To say that we should stick with Campbell by singling out late bloomer Drew Brees requires that you draw a distinction between Campbell and other QBs considered failures as starters: Wuerful, Matthews, Ramsey, Shuler, Frerotte, and a very long list of QBs from the other 31 teams.

What distinguishes Jason from all those others who weren't given the kind of patience you want for Campbell?

Understand, I'm not arguing with your conclusion that we need to have more patience. I just don't think that you and Rich Tandler have made a sound argument for it.

These are valid questions to ask, but I think the answer to the central question as to what distinguished those other guys from Campbell is "time".

Wuerfel, Matthews and especially Shuler didn't have what it took to QB in this league, and it was obvious to anyone who watched them for even a short time. Matthews stuck around as a backup and a spot starter, but he was clearly not someone a team was going to build around.

Frerotte was a 7th round pick who developed beyond what most people hoped when he was drafted and who got three years with our team - all in the same system - to prove what he could do. He proved that, like Matthews (though with a stronger arm), he was really better suited to back up, though he could win with enough talent around him.

Ramsey got ruined by Spurrier, so it's hard to judge where he versus his coaches failed, but I've already seen more out of Jason to give me confidence that the game isn't too fast for him to handle than I ever did out of Ramsey. Ramsey didn't get a lot of opportunity to start here in Washington, but it is interesting that going into his 7th season he's never again gotten the chance to start despite going to a Jets team begging for a starting QB and to a Broncos team that had a QB slogging through a season with undiagnosed diabetes that had him fading badly late in games.

Again though, all of them had more time to show they didn't have what it took to start, with the excetion of Shuler who frankly showed it from day 1 and was the biggest QB bust this side of Ryan Leaf.

[steve09ru]

the difference? Campbell will be 27 this year and Brees was 25 when he came into his own

Campbell has yet to show that he can play in this league...sure he had a couple good games last year, but HE hasn't won us anything.

He stares receivers down to much...checks down when he isn't pressured

Like someone else has mentioned in another thread but It would be nice if he was a little more Favre like and took chances. Sure there would be int's but atleast he could learn to make an effort and take a chance once in a while

[MWCREDSKINS]

No I'm more jealous about them having a real GM